2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Timing belt · 28-01-2021 1:00am

TobyHolmes wrote: »

i see - trying to manipulate the market- interesting

Yes they are private institutions and will try and maximise their profit.... they have planned financially for it and at the end of the period they either achieve their objective and lease all the units at the desired rent or have to decided to reduce the rent to fill.

I am sure that on top of these there are other apartments that have become vacant during Covid and the landlord is reluctant to accept a lower rent because of the Rent Pressure Zones. You could say that RPZ's are manipulating the market as if they were not there landlords would accept lower rent knowing they could raise the rent in the future when economic conditions improve. Don't get me wrong we need RPZ's but there is a consequence to every action to manipulate the market.

Bass Reeves · 28-01-2021 1:23am

TobyHolmes wrote: »

i see - trying to manipulate the market- interesting

If you are a large scale landlord with ROZ's it make no sense dropping rents. Your yield across the complete portfolio drops as tenants move to cheaper accommodation . It makes much more sense to take the hit on the empty units rather than dropping prices to fill vacancies. Even for private landlords who have multiple units it makes more sense to maintain your yield by holding out for your existing level of rent. As well some landlords may use this opportunity to. Upgrade poorer quality units to improve rents

Cyrus · 28-01-2021 7:49am

PropQueries wrote: »

Never said marina. Similar developments “may”.

Right , so it was a throwaway post and you don’t really have an basis for what you said ....

hometruths · 28-01-2021 9:41am

Timing belt wrote: »

Yes they are private institutions and will try and maximise their profit.... they have planned financially for it and at the end of the period they either achieve their objective and lease all the units at the desired rent or have to decided to reduce the rent to fill.

I am sure that on top of these there are other apartments that have become vacant during Covid and the landlord is reluctant to accept a lower rent because of the Rent Pressure Zones. You could say that RPZ's are manipulating the market as if they were not there landlords would accept lower rent knowing they could raise the rent in the future when economic conditions improve. Don't get me wrong we need RPZ's but there is a consequence to every action to manipulate the market.

I think the biggest impact of RPZs is with the small BTL investor/accidental landlord who is thinking of the capital value.

Because of the capped rent increases if you want to sell a property that is currently tenanted or recently vacated the existing yield sets a ceiling on the valuation.

In a strong market is far better to leave it vacant for long enough to reset the RPZ issues, and sell it without this burden. Property owners are incentivised to leave units vacant.

This is also applies to situations where for whatever reason it does not suit to sell the property in the short term - eg probate. RPZ legislation (both rent increases and tenants rights) means it is better to leave it empty until such time that you are ready to sell.

Of course this all only makes sense when prices and rents are rising or stable. If they start to turn down, you could see a lot of these properties come to the market in short order.

Bass Reeves · 28-01-2021 10:40am

schmittel wrote: »

I think the biggest impact of RPZs is with the small BTL investor/accidental landlord who is thinking of the capital value.

Because of the capped rent increases if you want to sell a property that is currently tenanted or recently vacated the existing yield sets a ceiling on the valuation.

In a strong market is far better to leave it vacant for long enough to reset the RPZ issues, and sell it without this burden. Property owners are incentivised to leave units vacant.

This is also applies to situations where for whatever reason it does not suit to sell the property in the short term - eg probate. RPZ legislation (both rent increases and tenants rights) means it is better to leave it empty until such time that you are ready to sell.

Of course this all only makes sense when prices and rents are rising or stable. If they start to turn down, you could see a lot of these properties come to the market in short order.

I think again like many you misunderstand the market. There are fewer accidental landlords and fewer landlords with 1-2 properties. As long as larger LL hold the line it easier for smaller LL's to hold for there price. In cities there is fewer LL's owning 1-2 properties compared to 10 years ago. Most accidental LL's from that period have exited the market in Dublin as prices reached a place where they could exit without losing money. Most larger LL's work on yield capital appreciation is not something they are concerned with in the short term. If you worry about the drop in value of property it is not something you should invest in

Most accidental LL's now are people who will have inherit property from parents or relations. They may have undervalued the property to avoid inheritance tax. As there may be little or no debt they are not financially stressed the willingness to pay 33% on any gain will curb any tendancy to sell.

We have been down this cul de sac before. Very few in the property game worry about capital value in the short term. Except for some specific properties most houses are valued as much by owner occupiers buyers as by LL's. Most larger LL's who are the most likely LL who will be buying can manage RPZ's limits by revamping a house

hometruths · 28-01-2021 10:47am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think again like many you misunderstand the market. There are fewer accidental landlords and fewer landlords with 1-2 properties. As long as larger LL hold the line it easier for smaller LL's to hold for there price. In cities there is fewer LL's owning 1-2 properties compared to 10 years ago. Most accidental LL's from that period have exited the market in Dublin as prices reached a place where they could exit without losing money. Most larger LL's work on yield capital appreciation is not something they are concerned with in the short term. If you worry about the drop in value of property it is not something you should invest in

Most accidental LL's now are people who will have inherit property from parents or relations. They may have undervalued the property to avoid inheritance tax. As there may be little or no debt they are not financially stressed the willingness to pay 33% on any gain will curb any tendancy to sell.

We have been down this cul de sac before. Very few in the property game worry about capital value in the short term. Except for some specific properties most houses are valued as much by owner occupiers buyers as by LL's. Most larger LL's who are the most likely LL who will be buying can manage RPZ's limits by revamping a house

Do you have any stats re "fewer landlords with 1-2 properties."?

PropQueries · 28-01-2021 10:56am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think again like many you misunderstand the market. There are fewer accidental landlords and fewer landlords with 1-2 properties. As long as larger LL hold the line it easier for smaller LL's to hold for there price. In cities there is fewer LL's owning 1-2 properties compared to 10 years ago. Most accidental LL's from that period have exited the market in Dublin as prices reached a place where they could exit without losing money. Most larger LL's work on yield capital appreciation is not something they are concerned with in the short term. If you worry about the drop in value of property it is not something you should invest in

Most accidental LL's now are people who will have inherit property from parents or relations. They may have undervalued the property to avoid inheritance tax. As there may be little or no debt they are not financially stressed the willingness to pay 33% on any gain will curb any tendancy to sell.

We have been down this cul de sac before. Very few in the property game worry about capital value in the short term. Except for some specific properties most houses are valued as much by owner occupiers buyers as by LL's. Most larger LL's who are the most likely LL who will be buying can manage RPZ's limits by revamping a house

I would believe that paying 33% CGT or paying the current rates of inheritance tax and the relatively high thresholds will look like a bargain in about 5 years time.

Many economists and governments are now suggesting that taxes on property and inheritance taxes are going to be the most looked at sources of future Government revenue around the world as it's one of the few assets/sources of revenue that can't be picked up and shipped abroad.

The pre-covid pension crisis hasn't gone away (it's actually got significantly worse with the low interest rate environment) and they're going to be looking very seriously at both higher property taxes, CGT and inheritance taxes/lower thresholds over the next few years.

Workers are already taxed to the hilt so outside of carbon taxes, there's not much left to tax to pay for both the future pensions and legacy debt built up over the past c. 15 years.

Timing belt · 28-01-2021 10:59am

PropQueries wrote: »

I would believe that paying 33% CGT or paying the current rates of inheritance tax and the relatively high thresholds will look like a bargain in about 5 years time.

Many economists and governments are now suggesting that taxes on property and inheritance taxes are going to be most looked at sources of future Government revenue around the world as it's one of the few assets/sources of revenue that can't be picked up and shipped abroad.

The pre-covid pension crisis hasn't gone away (it's actually got significantly worse with the low interest rate environment) and they're going to be looking very seriously at both higher property taxes, CGT and inheritance taxes/lower thresholds over the next few years.

Workers are already taxed to the hilt so outside of carbon taxes, there's not much left to tax to pay for both the future pensions and legacy debt built up over the past c. 15 years.

The age at which you get to draw a pension will change and people will be working longer.

PropQueries · 28-01-2021 11:04am

Timing belt wrote: »

The age at which you get to draw a pension will change and people will be working longer.

That's very true. I would believe anyone under 50 won't be getting any meaningful pension, whether they they have a public sector pension, are paying into a private pension or hope to just live off the regular state pension.

Bass Reeves · 28-01-2021 11:21am

PropQueries wrote: »

I would believe that paying 33% CGT or paying the current rates of inheritance tax and the relatively high thresholds will look like a bargain in about 5 years time.

Many economists and governments are now suggesting that taxes on property and inheritance taxes are going to be the most looked at sources of future Government revenue around the world as it's one of the few assets/sources of revenue that can't be picked up and shipped abroad.

The pre-covid pension crisis hasn't gone away (it's actually got significantly worse with the low interest rate environment) and they're going to be looking very seriously at both higher property taxes, CGT and inheritance taxes/lower thresholds over the next few years.

Workers are already taxed to the hilt so outside of carbon taxes, there's not much left to tax to pay for both the future pensions and legacy debt built up over the past c. 15 years.

Again we go down the cul de sac of things that may influence property prices in 10-15 years time. I was dealing with a post that specifically was dealing with a short term preceived thread to house prices.

Even at that at present capital taxes on houses are expensive in Ireland most suggesting on new taxation will follow the property tax route not the capital side as these are too variable. That is why we had the collapse in our national finances in the 2008-2012 period

Geuze · 28-01-2021 11:24am

PropQueries wrote: »

Workers are already taxed to the hilt so outside of carbon taxes, .

This statement is false, as has been established over and over again.

Yes, the top MTR kicks in at a low income here, at 35,300, yes.

But overall, workers are not heavily taxed here compared to many other EU countries.

Our direct taxes are low across many earners.

Our income tax system is very progressive, so taxes are lower than average on lower earners, but then rise sharply.

Timing belt · 28-01-2021 11:28am

It looks like the ECB may cut interest rates in a effort to weaken the EUR in an effort to fight of deflation.

I think that would bring the tracker mortgages under 1%

PropQueries · 28-01-2021 11:30am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Again we go down the cul de sac of things that may influence property prices in 10-15 years time. I was dealing with a post that specifically was dealing with a short term preceived thread to house prices.

Even at that at present capital taxes on houses are expensive in Ireland most suggesting on new taxation will follow the property tax route not the capital side as these are too variable. That is why we had the collapse in our national finances in the 2008-2012 period

CGT on houses aren’t high really. The CGT on property basically taxes the free gains made from inflation and there’s a strong argument they should be much higher.

The argument that people don’t sell if CGT starts increasing will become weaker and weaker as time goes by as people realise it’s only going one way i.e. up and going progressively higher IMO.

Lowering CGT only works if potential sellers were initially holding out for future lower CGT.

If their pensions are also progressively getting eroded at the same time, they will look at getting cash from wherever they can get it i.e. selling that property that they were holding onto.

JimmyVik · 28-01-2021 11:33am

PropQueries wrote: »

That's very true. I would believe anyone under 50 won't be getting any meaningful pension, whether they they have a public sector pension, are paying into a private pension or hope to just live off the regular state pension.

What will they live off then?
The middle income earner I guess.

PropQueries · 28-01-2021 11:38am

Geuze wrote: »

This statement is false, as has been established over and over again.

Yes, the top MTR kicks in at a low income here, at 35,300, yes.

But overall, workers are not heavily taxed here compared to many other EU countries.

Our direct taxes are low across many earners.

Our income tax system is very progressive, so taxes are lower than average on lower earners, but then rise sharply.

True. Except other countries get free healthcare, have lower insurance costs, lower costs of living etc. Our average income earner tax rates are incredibly high and the thresholds are very low given we get nothing back.

They could try increasing taxes on the low earners, but the vast majority of them are already under water given the high cost of living here so I don’t buy that that will happen.

That only leaves taxing higher earners more or increasing property taxes, CGT or taxing or lowering pensions.

PropQueries · 28-01-2021 11:40am

Timing belt wrote: »

It looks like the ECB may cut interest rates in a effort to weaken the EUR in an effort to fight of deflation.

I think that would bring the tracker mortgages under 1%

Let’s see how Biden responds to that. Trump already did the legwork so will be interesting

hometruths · 28-01-2021 11:40am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Again we go down the cul de sac of things that may influence property prices in 10-15 years time. I was dealing with a post that specifically was dealing with a short term preceived thread to house prices.

Even at that at present capital taxes on houses are expensive in Ireland most suggesting on new taxation will follow the property tax route not the capital side as these are too variable. That is why we had the collapse in our national finances in the 2008-2012 period

I'm still curious about what sort of numbers you are talking about when you say "fewer landlords with 1-2 properties"?

mcsean2163 · 28-01-2021 11:49am

Timing belt wrote: »

The age at which you get to draw a pension will change and people will be working longer.

Maybe in the public sector but can't see it going much higher in the private sector.

Bass Reeves · 28-01-2021 11:57am

PropQueries wrote: »

CGT on houses aren’t high really. The CGT on property basically taxes the free gains made from inflation and there’s a strong argument they should be much higher.

The argument that people don’t sell if CGT starts increasing will become weaker and weaker as time goes by as people realise it’s only going one way i.e. up and going progressively higher IMO.

Lowering CGT only works if potential sellers were initially holding out for future lower CGT.

If their pensions are also progressively getting eroded at the same time, they will look at getting cash from wherever they can get it i.e. selling that property that they were holding onto.

CGT is 33%. Indexation relief is gone. With the other costs on entering and exiting property very few will sell unless they require the money for something else. It is unlikely to increase as well as you get older you need for money decreases unless you go into a nursing home. Most will battle on with the property as there is no pint in paying CAT and CGT on the same money

Anyway like I said this is not going to be a factor in the medium term not to mind short term therefore wlll not effect house prices in 2021

Timing belt · 28-01-2021 12:10pm

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Maybe in the public sector but can't see it going much higher in the private sector.

It will be 75 in a few years in both public and private.

Timing belt · 28-01-2021 12:15pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Let’s see how Biden responds to that. Trump already did the legwork so will be interesting

They will be fighting a currency war on two fronts then.... Europe and China

HansKroenke · 28-01-2021 12:22pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rental-market-in-dublin-s-docklands-nosedives-as-couples-shun-one-bed-apartments-1.4470045

Extracts;

Rental market in Dublin’s docklands nosedives as couples shun one-bed apartments

The short-term rental market in Dublin’s docklands has “collapsed”, with couples shunning one-bed apartments with too little space to work remotely, according to a report on the residential property market in the central Dublin district.

The report by estate agent Owen Reilly said rents have fallen on average 13 per cent in the docklands since March, and by even more at the upper end of the market.

Between March and April, 10 per cent of Owen Reilly’s tenants prematurely ended their tenancy and left the docklands to work remotely from their home country, mainly in continental Europe.

While the demand for short-term rentals fell, the report noted that the supply of long-term rental units more than doubled.

Despite this, the report said the outlook for residential property in the docklands was still strong with the workforce expected to double in the next two years to at least 80,000.

Salesforce’s new European headquarters at Spencer Dock, currently under construction, will accommodate in the region of 3,000 workers.

“Given this, the demand for PRS apartments in the docklands will be strong,” it said.

Despite the disruption from Covid, 2020 saw two new schemes launch in the docklands in the private rental sector (PRS) at Quayside Quarter (268 units) on North Wall Quay and Ropemaker Place (56 units) at Grand Canal Dock.

Owen Reilly’s report said the company’s average rental yield fell to 5.9 per cent from 6.2 per cent, which reflected rental value movements.

With travel restrictions to remain until at least the autumn, the question is how low the rents can go? Current projections are for 17% drops in the year to March 2021. It's likely an artificial deflation however and as the extract notes, it will come back at least to some extent from these drops, once travel returns in 2022.

TylerRyan28 · 28-01-2021 12:25pm

Timing belt wrote: »

It will be 75 in a few years in both public and private.

So they want everyone to drop before they can retire and enjoy retirement. I can see people retireing before they reach state pension age I know you may receive less if you do retire early but some things are more important then having a big pension. Sure what would you be spending it on wont need much at that age, if your lucky enough to make it to that age.
house Would be paid off. Wouldn't be going on the same type of hoildays you would go on when your young and fit.

PropQueries · 28-01-2021 12:27pm

Edit: Apologies, just saw someone posted the same link.

According to the Irish Times today in relation to the Docklands area in Dublin:

"The short-term rental market in Dublin’s docklands has “collapsed”, with couples shunning one-bed apartments with too little space to work remotely, according to a report on the residential property market in the central Dublin district."

Rents have fallen by c. 13% since last March. 10% of tenants prematurely ended their tenancy. The supply of long-term rental units more than doubled.

It then goes on to state: "Despite this, the report said the outlook for residential property in the docklands was still strong with the workforce expected to double in the next two years to at least 80,000."

Ok, so an extra 40,000 jobs in the Docklands area in the next 2 years. Really? I assume some of this 40,000 figure will be jobs relocating from the suburbs to the new Facebook, Google and Salesforce headquarters. Not good for the suburban CRE market IMO.

But, where are all the other projected jobs being created? It's the equivalent of an additional 4 Googles in the Docklands within the next 2 years. Is this even plausible?

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rental-market-in-dublin-s-docklands-nosedives-as-couples-shun-one-bed-apartments-1.4470045

fliball123 · 28-01-2021 12:32pm

PropQueries wrote: »

According to the Irish Times today in relation to the Docklands area in Dublin:

"The short-term rental market in Dublin’s docklands has “collapsed”, with couples shunning one-bed apartments with too little space to work remotely, according to a report on the residential property market in the central Dublin district."

Rents have fallen by c. 13% since last March. 10% of tenants prematurely ended their tenancy. The supply of long-term rental units more than doubled.

It then goes on to state: "Despite this, the report said the outlook for residential property in the docklands was still strong with the workforce expected to double in the next two years to at least 80,000."

Ok, so an extra 40,000 jobs in the Docklands area in the next 2 years. Really? I assume some of this 40,000 figure will be jobs relocating from the suburbs to the new Facebook, Google and Salesforce headquarters. Not good for the suburban CRE market IMO.

But, where are all the other projected jobs being created? It's the equivalent of an additional 4 Googles in the Docklands within the next 2 years. Is this even plausible?

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rental-market-in-dublin-s-docklands-nosedives-as-couples-shun-one-bed-apartments-1.4470045

You need to take your blinkers off ..You view this in the short term as in the how conditions were last year and this year. If the short term conditions of no immigration and no tourists continued after covid is gone then it would not be sustainable but I reckon anyone who has property as part of their investment portfolio will not be thinking of the short term as lets face it you cant sell properties at the flick of a switch it takes a few months..so if say property prices started plummeting you would not be immune to a big loss.. Do you really think in 2 or 3 or 10 years time that Ireland will still have no one travelling in to visit or to stay and work??

Timing belt · 28-01-2021 12:34pm

PropQueries wrote: »

It then goes on to state: "Despite this, the report said the outlook for residential property in the docklands was still strong with the workforce expected to double in the next two years to at least 80,000."

Ok, so an extra 40,000 jobs in the Docklands area in the next 2 years. Really? I assume some of this 40,000 figure will be jobs relocating from the suburbs to the new Facebook, Google and Salesforce headquarters. Not good for the suburban CRE market IMO.

But, where are all the other projected jobs being created? It's the equivalent of an additional 4 Googles in the Docklands within the next 2 years. Is this even plausible?

If we have skilled staff immigrating here it is possible

JimmyVik · 28-01-2021 12:39pm

Timing belt wrote: »

It will be 75 in a few years in both public and private.

Arent SF going to lower it to 60?

PropQueries · 28-01-2021 12:41pm

Timing belt wrote: »

If we have skilled staff immigrating here it is possible

Or maybe look at it another way. Apparently we have enough office supply (already built or nearing completion) in the Docklands area to accommodate an additional c. 40,000 workers.

That's a significant amount of office supply looking for a home in the very near term. They better hope those 40,000 jobs materialise over the next 2 years.

JimmyVik · 28-01-2021 12:43pm

fliball123 wrote: »

You need to take your blinkers off ..You view this in the short term as in the how conditions were last year and this year. If the short term conditions of no immigration and no tourists continued after covid is gone then it would not be sustainable but I reckon anyone who has property as part of their investment portfolio will not be thinking of the short term as lets face it you cant sell properties at the flick of a switch it takes a few months..so if say property prices started plummeting you would not be immune to a big loss.. Do you really think in 2 or 3 or 10 years time that Ireland will still have no one travelling in to visit or to stay and work??

Its going to be some influx of workers and students, even people who went back down the country since last year, into Dublin when Covid is finished. I imagine supply will be strained big time. Renting will be carnage.

TobyHolmes · 28-01-2021 12:47pm

fliball123 wrote: »

You need to take your blinkers off ..You view this in the short term as in the how conditions were last year and this year. If the short term conditions of no immigration and no tourists continued after covid is gone then it would not be sustainable but I reckon anyone who has property as part of their investment portfolio will not be thinking of the short term as lets face it you cant sell properties at the flick of a switch it takes a few months..so if say property prices started plummeting you would not be immune to a big loss.. Do you really think in 2 or 3 or 10 years time that Ireland will still have no one travelling in to visit or to stay and work??

COVID has changed the working pattern of workers. i am not psychic but its really just a case of connecting the dots. At the moment people who can remote work - remote work. There will still be plenty of remote working jobs in the future (from what people are saying and the way things are going) and people will not have to live in dublin city for work (and deal with high rental costs and high costs to buy property- why should they when they dont have to) so that means........ they wont live in dublin and they wont buy or rent property in dublin. im not sure why some posters are trying to convince people otherwise. Do you really think life will just go back to normal next year? I wish it would but we have to be realistic as well. Im not saying this to you directly - but in general maybe people need to look less at the statistics and the numbers and economic models and just talk to people in the community (not just your own bubble) and that will really tell you more what behaviour will be like in the coming years.

MacronvFrugals · 28-01-2021 12:48pm

Should the council not just buy this property?

Advert for Homeless Hostel Estimates Profits of €250,000 a Year

On Nelson Street in Phibsborough, a privately run homeless hostel is for sale.

Ardfert House, as it’s known, has 28 rooms for residents and a price tag of €3.2m.

Dublin City Council has a ten-year lease on the premises and pays €480,000 each year to the private operator, the advert says.

More than half of that is profit, it seems – although that’s based wholly on the seller’s advert. “Estimated profit €250,000 per year,” the advert says. on property website Daft.ie.

The listing has given councillors a rare insight into the council’s spending on a private hostel for single people, and an opportunity to compare that against charity-run hostels.

“This illustrates the enormous profits that are being made in the private homeless sector,” says Green Party Councillor Janet Horner.

Horner says she thinks the council should buy the hostel instead of shelling out €4.8m to a private operator over ten years.

https://dublininquirer.com/2021/01/27/advert-for-homeless-hostel-estimates-profits-of-250-000-a-year

JimmyVik · 28-01-2021 12:51pm

TobyHolmes wrote: »

COVID has changed the working pattern of workers. i am not psychic but its really just a case of connecting the dots. At the moment people who can remote work - remote work. There will still be plenty of remote working jobs in the future (from what people are saying and the way things are going) and people will not have to live in dublin city for work (and deal with high rental costs and high costs to buy property- why should they when they dont have to) so that means........ they wont live in dublin and they wont buy or rent property in dublin. im not sure why some posters are trying to convince people otherwise. Do you really think life will just go back to normal next year? I wish it would but we have to be realistic as well. Im not saying this to you directly - but in general maybe people need to look less at the statistics and the numbers and economic models and just talk to people in the community (not just your own bubble) and that will really tell you more what behaviour will be like in the coming years.

I just dont think life is going to change that much. Sure it will change a little as it does all the time. But therte is a pandemic. Life has changed to the Pandemic way, while there is a pandemic.
When there is no pandemic it will be much more like it was before.

PropQueries · 28-01-2021 12:54pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

Its going to be some influx of workers and students, even people who went back down the country since last year, into Dublin when Covid is finished. I imagine supply will be strained big time. Renting will be carnage.

That argument would make perfect sense if no new residential units were completed, no new student accommodation units were completed, no new refurbishment units were completed and no new properties entered probate between March 2020 and March 2022.

Leo has already stated international travel restrictions are most likely to be in place until year end so it will be next year before things could possibly return to anything resembling pre-covid normality.

We will have all this extra housing supply having entered the market between 2020 and 2022, definitely less pre-covid projections of demand.

So, I don't see where this predicted housing supply/demand mismatch will come from next year.

TobyHolmes · 28-01-2021 12:56pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

I just dont think life is going to change that much. Sure it will change a little as it does all the time. But therte is a pandemic. Life has changed to the Pandemic way, while there is a pandemic.
When there is no pandemic it will be much more like it was before.

dont u think the pandemic has giving people more perspective on what they want from life and that they have decided they dont want to live a lifestyle that means high rents and high costs to buy - when they dont have to and in a city that is going to the pits (stabbings, homelessness). (all capital cities are like that - i hear the peanut gallery say - but other capital cities offer more bang for the buck in terms of weather, activities etc).

I would also certainly think that the pandemic has changed society - if it hasnt - then humans are doomed as it means we havent learned anything.

Sure you can ignore me. Im just one person. But believe you me (love that saying) there are many people who have similar views. it would be wise to listen to people if you have any interest in the property market so that you can learn to strategise better.

JimmyVik · 28-01-2021 1:00pm

TobyHolmes wrote: »

dont u think the pandemic has giving people more perspective on what they want from life and that they have decided they dont want to live a lifestyle that means high rents and high costs to buy - when they dont have to and in a city that is going to the pits (stabbings, homelessness). (all capital cities are like that - i hear the peanut gallery say - but other capital cities offer more bang for the buck in terms of weather, activities etc).

I would also certainly think that the pandemic has changed society - if it hasnt - then humans are doomed as it means we havent learned anything.

Sure you can ignore me. Im just one person. But believe you me (love that saying) there are many people who have similar views. it would be wise to listen to people if you have any interest in the property market so that you can learn to strategise better.

I dont think things will change as much as you think they will.
Even just look at the pandemic so far. Didnt take long going from "close the schools" to "open the schools". And as for being careful about getting the virus. Well things have changed there too in a few months. This pandemic will be over. Life is more likely to be like it was before the pandemic than it was during it.

TobyHolmes · 28-01-2021 1:02pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

I dont think things will change as much as you think they will.
Even just look at the pandemic so far. Didnt take long going from "close the schools" to "open the schools". And as for being careful about getting the virus. Well things have changed there too in a few months. This pandemic will be over. Life is more likely to be like it was before the pandemic than it was during it.

ok enjoy the view

Timing belt · 28-01-2021 1:19pm

TobyHolmes wrote: »

dont u think the pandemic has giving people more perspective on what they want from life and that they have decided they dont want to live a lifestyle that means high rents and high costs to buy - when they dont have to and in a city that is going to the pits (stabbings, homelessness). (all capital cities are like that - i hear the peanut gallery say - but other capital cities offer more bang for the buck in terms of weather, activities etc).

I would also certainly think that the pandemic has changed society - if it hasnt - then humans are doomed as it means we havent learned anything.

Sure you can ignore me. Im just one person. But believe you me (love that saying) there are many people who have similar views. it would be wise to listen to people if you have any interest in the property market so that you can learn to strategise better.

People have all been drawn to cities that won't change.... Yes we will have more people move out of the city to WFH but the city will still attract people.

Browney7 · 28-01-2021 1:23pm

HansKroenke wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rental-market-in-dublin-s-docklands-nosedives-as-couples-shun-one-bed-apartments-1.4470045

Extracts;

With travel restrictions to remain until at least the autumn, the question is how low the rents can go? Current projections are for 17% drops in the year to March 2021. It's likely an artificial deflation however and as the extract notes, it will come back at least to some extent from these drops, once travel returns in 2022.

It's an interesting report by Owen. His agency is clearly focussed on the pointy end of the market so not representative of the Dublin or nationwide market.

TobyHolmes · 28-01-2021 1:30pm

Timing belt wrote: »

People have all been drawn to cities that won't change.... Yes we will have more people move out of the city to WFH but the city will still attract people.

ok - i guess time will tell!

TheSheriff · 28-01-2021 2:00pm

TobyHolmes wrote: »

ok - i guess time will tell!

Are you perhaps guilty of your own advice and only looking at your own circle/friends ?

Plenty I know (who would have secure, fully remote possibilities ) have not fled the capital.

Watch the city centre go down slightly , and the suburbs flatline/slightly increase.

I don't think we'll all be living in rural utopia.

hometruths · 28-01-2021 2:05pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Are you perhaps guilty of your own advice and only looking at your own circle/friends ?

Plenty I know (who would have secure, fully remote possibilities ) have not fled the capital.

Watch the city centre go down slightly , and the suburbs flatline/slightly increase.

I don't think we'll all be living in rural utopia.

Maybe everyone's opinion on this is influenced by their own opinions/circle of friends - mine certainly is, and it sounds like yours might be too.

Time will tell which circle will move the market more!

TheSheriff · 28-01-2021 2:11pm

schmittel wrote: »

Maybe everyone's opinion on this is influenced by their own opinions/circle of friends - mine certainly is, and it sounds like yours might be too.

Time will tell which circle will move the market more!

Absolutely, I agree. Everyone on this thread has a bias, whether they admit it or not. Once posters realise this, (particularly new posters) it's easier to not get your back up about some of the mad projections (on both sides) which come up here.

It's been that way for the years I've been reading. Everyone is involved and is fully convinced that the exact circumstances which will maximise their personal gain will happen....because their friends, who are all in a similar socioeconomic group are talking about the same thing. Confirmation bias etc.

Expect maybe for Villa , they seem more hear to tell us all how f**cked the market is (which I agree with

).

Villa05 · 28-01-2021 2:18pm

PropQueries wrote:

Many economists and governments are now suggesting that taxes on property and inheritance taxes are going to be the most looked at sources of future Government revenue around the world as it's one of the few assets/sources of revenue that can't be picked up and shipped abroad.

Timing belt wrote:

The age at which you get to draw a pension will change and people will be working longer.

Bass Reeves wrote:

Again we go down the cul de sac of things that may influence property prices in 10-15 years time. I was dealing with a post that specifically was dealing with a short term preceived thread to house prices.

Fail to prepare, Prepare to fail. Pensions was one of the biggest issues facing the country 20 years ago, hence the pension reserve fund.

Have we got to the point where Fianna fail were the most prudent party in the country in the greatest collapse the country experienced

I think it's important to remember that when we buy a house, it's not just something we do this year, it's a lifetime commitment

Geuze wrote:

Our income tax system is very progressive, so taxes are lower than average on lower earners, but then rise sharply.

For those earning less, the scope to tax them is erased by the rents they are forced to pay. Many would be financially better off on the dole + benefits

Third level education is another area with issues. In comparison to international standards fees are very low and heavily subsidised. The construction industry is very much aware of this and presents an opportunity for them to charge more for accomodation, yet another indirect subsidy to the profession

affordable housing would be the silver bullet to solve both the pensions and need for higher taxation in the future.

All the ingredients are in place for the state not only to deliver affordable housing, but also to have housing as a source of income rather than a sector that is continually and increasingly subsidised at a time when we are close to full employment.

Marius34 · 28-01-2021 2:22pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Are you perhaps guilty of your own advice and only looking at your own circle/friends ?

Plenty I know (who would have secure, fully remote possibilities ) have not fled the capital.

Watch the city centre go down slightly , and the suburbs flatline/slightly increase.

I don't think we'll all be living in rural utopia.

From my personal experience, I work and study mostly with multinational colleagues in IT. I have not seen movement from Dublin for European friends and colleagues (except from British contractors that not coming for business trips). But I have large portion of Students/Colleagues who work or study from India currently. Most has plans to come/return to Dublin in Summer or when College/Office re-opens or on completion of Master degree.

enricoh · 28-01-2021 2:26pm

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/government-says-it-can-absorb-a-record-level-of-national-debt-amid-covid-crisis-1.4470047?mode=amp

Government debt is just shy of 50k for every man woman and child in the country. What's the population 5 million? , Iirc we had 2.2 million at work pre covid. So probably 1.5 million full time workers now when you strip out part timers, jobs lost and mickey mouse CE schemes etc.
Is this sustainable with corporation tax windfalls under pressure? Government renting apartments for up to 3k a month surely has to end? Or will we keep on trucking and sod the naysayers Bertie style!

TobyHolmes · 28-01-2021 2:31pm

Marius34 wrote: »

From my personal experience, I work and study mostly with multinational colleagues in IT. I have not seen movement from Dublin for European friends and colleagues (except from British contractors that not coming for business trips). But I have large portion of Students/Colleagues who work or study from India currently. Most has plans to come/return to Dublin in Summer or when College/Office re-opens or on completion of Master degree.

really as I have had the opposite experience. But look I suppose we will see.

TobyHolmes · 28-01-2021 2:32pm

TheSheriff wrote: »

Are you perhaps guilty of your own advice and only looking at your own circle/friends ?

Plenty I know (who would have secure, fully remote possibilities ) have not fled the capital.

Watch the city centre go down slightly , and the suburbs flatline/slightly increase.

I don't think we'll all be living in rural utopia.

perhaps yeah you are right Sheriff. I suppose I would have a few different groups and some would be very settled and some are like getting out of dodge. but sure look we will see. i guess we cant deal with definitives right now

Hubertj · 28-01-2021 2:54pm

Villa05 wrote: »

Fail to prepare, Prepare to fail. Pensions was one of the biggest issues facing the country 20 years ago, hence the pension reserve fund.

Have we got to the point where Fianna fail were the most prudent party in the country in the greatest collapse the country experienced

I think it's important to remember that when we buy a house, it's not just something we do this year, it's a lifetime commitment

For those earning less, the scope to tax them is erased by the rents they are forced to pay. Many would be financially better off on the dole + benefits

Third level education is another area with issues. In comparison to international standards fees are very low and heavily subsidised. The construction industry is very much aware of this and presents an opportunity for them to charge more for accomodation, yet another indirect subsidy to the profession

affordable housing would be the silver bullet to solve both the pensions and need for higher taxation in the future.

All the ingredients are in place for the state not only to deliver affordable housing, but also to have housing as a source of income rather than a sector that is continually and increasingly subsidised at a time when we are close to full employment.

Correction... we WERE close to full employment.

Hubertj · 28-01-2021 3:03pm

HansKroenke wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/rental-market-in-dublin-s-docklands-nosedives-as-couples-shun-one-bed-apartments-1.4470045

Extracts;

With travel restrictions to remain until at least the autumn, the question is how low the rents can go? Current projections are for 17% drops in the year to March 2021. It's likely an artificial deflation however and as the extract notes, it will come back at least to some extent from these drops, once travel returns in 2022.

This makes sense. 4 google workers share the 4 bed house next door to me and they said it was a disaster. Google offered desks/monitors etc but that doesn’t work for 4 people...

PropQueries · 28-01-2021 3:05pm

TobyHolmes wrote: »

perhaps yeah you are right Sheriff. I suppose I would have a few different groups and some would be very settled and some are like getting out of dodge. but sure look we will see. i guess we cant deal with definitives right now

People already living here don't add to demand as they're already housed. If they stay, nothing changes, if they leave it adds to supply.

The main issue arises about the impact of WFH etc. on the future projected demand for housing in the city. New hires coming to work in Dublin may be renting for the first c. 5 years. They then decide to start a family and buy. If they're only in the office 2 or 3 days a week, they will then seriously consider looking much further afield.

Given that this age group will be marrying partners in a similar age bracket, they will both most likely have the opportunity to WFH a few days a week, so they will then seriously consider other areas. If it saves them €100k, if they see they can pay back their mortgage in 15 years instead of 25 years, if it means being closer to family.

Unlike pre-covid, whatever the reason for looking into it, it will definitely be a consideration and will definitely reduce future demand for housing in the city to below pre-covid projected demand levels in future years.

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1