Saturday 29 March

BumperD · 27-03-2014 7:34pm #1

Anyone got any thoughts for the w\e? Declarations out and draws for Lincoln/spring mile. Oisin Murphy has a few good rides booked , dance and dance looks interesting in the mile.

Meydan world cup night too.

UrbanSea · 27-03-2014 8:19pm

Dance and Dance my main fancy for the weekend, will back at 10s lay at 6s

UrbanSea · 27-03-2014 8:33pm

Missed the last 10/1 backed him at 9s. He could go off fav at this rate

Johner · 27-03-2014 8:41pm

Flat, ugh.

madmoose · 27-03-2014 8:54pm

Cant believe how fast its come round, felt like the charlie hall was the other month.

BumperD · 27-03-2014 9:46pm

Going to give Robert the painter a few of my euro in the Lincoln. Needs to find a bit of form this season but his run with levitate last yr isn't bad and he has the benefit of a high draw and a useful claimer. O Meara is more known for lower grade handicaps but hes had a few good seasons. Going to back him we and throw him and dance x 2 in an each way double.

Imhof Tank · 27-03-2014 10:03pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

Dance and Dance my main fancy for the weekend, will back at 10s lay at 6s

He's your main fancy at the weekend to do what? Win or trade slightly lower in running?

If the later, your main weekend bet is going to be 6/4 that this horse flatters and fades. Why bother really?

UrbanSea · 27-03-2014 10:07pm

Imhof Tank wrote: »

He's your main fancy at the weekend to do what? Win or trade slightly lower in running?

If the later, your main weekend bet is going to be 6/4 that this horse flatters and fades. Why bother really?

:rolleyes:

If you say you fancy something what does it generally mean.

''Why bother really''- what a question. Ensuring you don't lose money yet can still win. Long term profit is my goal not a single big win.

Imhof Tank · 27-03-2014 10:24pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

:rolleyes:

If you say you fancy something what does it generally mean.

''Why bother really''- what a question. Ensuring you don't lose money yet can still win. Long term profit is my goal not a single big win.

Don't follow your reasoning.

"Back to lay" is generally the strategy where you expect the horse to flatter and then lose.

You seem to be saying you fancy this to win, so why are you thinking lay?

If you fancy the horse at 10/1 but are greedily planning to arb out at a level which would yield you a return of slightly over 6/4 then you are just playing bond trader and trying to look clever. A guy with that as the highlight of his punting weekend is a mere gambler and not a true racing fan IMO.

UrbanSea · 27-03-2014 10:30pm

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Don't follow your reasoning.

"Back to lay" is generally the strategy where you expect the horse to flatter and then lose.

You seem to be saying you fancy this to win, so why are you thinking lay?

If you fancy the horse at 10/1 but are greedily planning to arb out at a level which would yield you a return of slightly over 6/4 then you are just playing bond trader and trying to look clever. A guy with that as the highlight of his punting weekend is a mere gambler and not a true racing fan IMO.

I fancy the horse in what is a weak race, what is wrong with minimising losses? The horse hasn't won since July 2012 and isn't one for maximum faith

Just how am I trying to look smart? That's the beauty of laying on the exchange, and about 80% of the horses I back beat SP, I should be doing it more often but I'm greedier than I probably should be. Is being disciplined ''trying to look clever''

You certainly got me on the last bit alright. Not a racing fan at all sure I hope the horse never runs again if he doesn't win, ****ing nag :rolleyes:

Also, what is greedy about arbing? Say he goes off at an SP of 6/1 Saturday, isn't it greedy if I decide to let it run as opposed to trading out because I want the bigger win

bookman2 · 27-03-2014 10:37pm

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Don't follow your reasoning.

"Back to lay" is generally the strategy where you expect the horse to flatter and then lose.

You seem to be saying you fancy this to win, so why are you thinking lay?

If you fancy the horse at 10/1 but are greedily planning to arb out at a level which would yield you a return of slightly over 6/4 then you are just playing bond trader and trying to look clever. A guy with that as the highlight of his punting weekend is a mere gambler and not a true racing fan IMO.

What is wrong with trying to minimise losses? - he doesn't use a crystal ball so can't be sure of it winning.

Imhof Tank · 27-03-2014 10:54pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

I fancy the horse in what is a weak race, what is wrong with minimising losses? The horse hasn't won since July 2012 and isn't one for maximum faith

Just how am I trying to look smart? That's the beauty of laying on the exchange, and about 80% of the horses I back beat SP, I should be doing it more often but I'm greedier than I probably should be. Is being disciplined ''trying to look clever''

You certainly got me on the last bit alright. Not a racing fan at all sure I hope the horse never runs again if he doesn't win, ****ing nag :rolleyes:

Also, what is greedy about arbing? Say he goes off at an SP of 6/1 Saturday, isn't it greedy if I decide to let it run as opposed to trading out because I want the bigger win

If that's your attitude why don't you just forget about trying to find winners altogether and just concentrate on trying to find back to lay opportunities.

There is nothing wrong with arbing per se from a standing position. That's not what you are doing. You are gambling on the possibility of an arb arising in running. And don't tell me you as a layer aren't secretly hoping for bad things to happen after you trade out to validate your decision:rolleyes::rolleyes: IMO that is very close to the betting shop bores calling for favourites to fall at the last.

In terms of long term returns, if you keep trading out of 10/1 winners at 6/4 I cant see that working long term. For every one that shortens you will have one like that Josie you put up today. Even if you successfully arb 10 horses in a row for peanuts what enjoyment could that give a person. You would have successfully picked 10 shorteners, well done take a bow. You are ideally suited for a career in bean counting. Racing is a sport.

UrbanSea · 27-03-2014 10:57pm

Imhof Tank wrote: »

If that's your attitude why don't you just forget about trying to find winners altogether and just concentrate on trying to find back to lay opportunities.

There is nothing wrong with arbing per se from a standing position. That's not what you are doing. You are gambling on the possibility of an arb arising in running. And don't tell me you as a layer aren't secretly hoping for bad things to happen after you trade out to validate your decision:rolleyes::rolleyes: IMO that is very close to the betting shop bores calling for favourites to fall at the last.

In terms of long term returns, if you keep trading out of 10/1 winners at 6/4 I cant see that working long term. For every one that shortens you will have one like that Josie you put up today. Even if you successfully arb 10 horses in a row for peanuts what enjoyment could that give a person. You would have successfully picked 10 shorteners, well done take a bow. You are ideally suited for a career in bean counting. Racing is a sport.

I'll treat your moronic response with the respect it deserves and end the discussion at this. Good luck.

jimjamcos · 27-03-2014 11:28pm

madmoose wrote: »

Cant believe how fast its come round, felt like the charlie hall was the other month.

Will they let you back out for the flat Moose, ya header? Seeing as you were robbed of a Queen Mother win, it's the least they could do!!

madmoose · 27-03-2014 11:37pm

Im sure ill have a spin at chester in the may fest if they lift my ban

BumperD · 28-03-2014 3:42am

Johner wrote: »

Flat, ugh.

Sorry but I can never understand this. Every year with the announcement of the flat season we see people crabbing it. It's become like a fashion statement. You never ever see people bemoan the arrival of the NH season. I'm getting a little tired of it to be honest. I love racing. And I certainly don't have an inferiority complex about which code I follow.

ste2010 · 28-03-2014 8:48am

BumperD wrote: »

Sorry but I can never understand this. Every year with the announcement of the flat season we see people crabbing it. It's become like a fashion statement. You never ever see people bemoan the arrival of the NH season. I'm getting a little tired of it to be honest. I love racing. And I certainly don't have an inferiority complex about which code I follow.

I can understand the bemoaning..it goes from jumping fences and hurdles, mistakes and spills, bottomless ground, good ground, soft ground, highly
Emotional jockeys, last fence fallers, tony McCoy, ruby Walsh, Dennis hogan, Cheltenham preview podcasts, stables shutting down for man flu, festival cheers in the blistering cold, hot whiskey in your gloved hand to
Straight line sprints, one mistake or your slow away from the trap and your gone! Sunglasses, civil behavior and champagne...
I am warming to the flat this year but nothing on the jumps, large handicaps I like..
Thanks The Lord punchestown, aintree and Peter bowen cleaning up in the summer time will save us all

paddy no 11 · 28-03-2014 11:23am

Its not the flat season so much as the end of the jumps season. The flat just cant compete as a spectacle.

Its off the junk and on to methadone for the summer.

Gavin "shels" · 28-03-2014 12:02pm

Un De Sceaux running in Auteil.

walrusgumble · 28-03-2014 1:56pm

BumperD wrote: »

Sorry but I can never understand this. Every year with the announcement of the flat season we see people crabbing it. It's become like a fashion statement. You never ever see people bemoan the arrival of the NH season. I'm getting a little tired of it to be honest. I love racing. And I certainly don't have an inferiority complex about which code I follow.

Hear Hear, can we not just love both codes?

Fine season in the jumps,

But , bring on SUNNY (hopefully) days at The Curragh, to the Derby at Epson,Royal Ascot,, Newmarket , Breeders Cup (where many of our horses and the Brits do well and so do we betting wise) or the cheeky mid week day meets at the Curragh and Leopardstown (Last year it was all about Royal Diamond v Ernest Hemingway and then Weld's horse bet them to it in the Irish St Ledger and handy 6/1 bet on Trading Leather) And of course, Rowdy meets at York (genuine racing fans unlike the stiff at Royal Ascot)

And of course, Galway aka Dermot Weld/Pat Smullen Benefit week (to be fair Weld may have some interesting stock this year) - well the jumps to be fair

I use to think it was a nod and a wink joke, but now its getting silly.

Either way, hopefully Irish Jockies, Trainers and Horses do the business this season ; and Slade Power gets out of the stalls alot more consistently.

walrusgumble · 28-03-2014 2:07pm

ste2010 wrote: »

I can understand the bemoaning..it goes from jumping fences and hurdles, mistakes and spills, bottomless ground, good ground, soft ground, highly
Emotional jockeys, last fence fallers, tony McCoy, ruby Walsh, Dennis hogan, Cheltenham preview podcasts, stables shutting down for man flu, festival cheers in the blistering cold, hot whiskey in your gloved hand to
Straight line sprints, one mistake or your slow away from the trap and your gone! Sunglasses, civil behavior and champagne...
I am warming to the flat this year but nothing on the jumps, large handicaps I like..
Thanks The Lord punchestown, aintree and Peter bowen cleaning up in the summer time will save us all

Some of my favourite flat season races are the 2 milers. Tend to do reasonably well with them with good odds. Eagle Rock was a star for me last year. Even places can get you a few quid when you look at the favourites, laugh, and pick horses that are (a) very experienced at those kind of distances (b) nicer weight etc. Sometimes, for the life of me, I can never understand why some horses that were favourites had been considered favourites, oh well, Bookies snooze and loose.

Others were the large field 6 f sprints. On a tip, I got Lethal Force at Royal Ascot at lovely odds, and would have been better each way.

BumperD · 28-03-2014 2:51pm

I see Mars Mars Mars runs in the Sheena Classic. Now I'm not suggesting for a minute that he's the likely winner but 40\1 looks a bit of each way value if he manages to discover some of last years form.

Johner · 28-03-2014 3:39pm

BumperD wrote: »

Sorry but I can never understand this. Every year with the announcement of the flat season we see people crabbing it. It's become like a fashion statement. You never ever see people bemoan the arrival of the NH season. I'm getting a little tired of it to be honest. I love racing. And I certainly don't have an inferiority complex about which code I follow.

Chill out Bumps.

I like the flat as I like all racing but it doesn't come close to national hunt racing.

Johner · 28-03-2014 3:49pm

paddy no 11 wrote: »

Its not the flat season so much as the end of the jumps season. The flat just cant compete as a spectacle.

Its off the junk and on to methadone for the summer.

That's basically how I feel. The jumps season has flew by. :mad:

UrbanSea · 28-03-2014 4:03pm

Hardly the most memorable jumps season. We have Treve and some nice three year olds to look forward to

rossom · 28-03-2014 8:34pm

4.39 Meydan

Educate 40/1

I think everyone on here knows how much I love this fella and although he's got to take a big step forward to land this contest I think he is primed to run a massive, massive race. Improving all the time, this 5 year old went from an opening mark of 88 last year to land the Cambridgeshire off a mark of 104 (form reads incredibly well) under a huge weight of 9-9 despite hanging badly and there has certainly been encouragement in his 2 starts at Meydan this year. The first of which came on the back of 124 day absence in the Group 2 Al Rashidiya over this C+D at the end of January when finishing a promising 6th beaten less than 4L (pulled quite hard) and I was very surprised and delighted with his last run 3 weeks ago in the Group 1 3rd round of the Al Maktoum challenge. Over 10f on Tapeta (a surface I thought he'd hate given former yard profiler Terry Norman said he didn't sparkle at all on the AW in England during last years pre-season training), I thought Educate ran a blinder under tomorrow's pilot Maxime Guyon to be beaten 2.5L in 5th despite having his run interrupted on a couple of occasions (he's a horse who likes to come with long, withering runs) and I think both runs will have put him spot on for this extremely valuable contest. With a lovely draw in stall 5 and having gained very valuable track experience, Educate represents the 2007 Carnival leading trainer in Ismail Mohammed who bagged 16 winners that year including the UAE Oaks and 1,000 Guineas and I'm sure Educate will be primed to perfection for this Group 1 contest. Returned to turf and over 9f, I'm hoping Guyon positions Educate in the midfield as Meydan isn't a place you want to get too far back and although this is unquestionably his toughest test to date there is no doubt in my mind that there is still improvement left in this son of Echo Of Light. With doubts surrounding The Fugue (never ran at course, lack of a recent run and trip), Just A Way (no course experience and first time abroad) and Dank (lack of a recent run and no course experience), I am utterly astounded to see 40/1 freely available about Educate as I would have gladly backed him at half that price. Still on the upgrade, tomorrow we find out if Educate has the class to cut it at the top level but I firmly believe he is going to run an absolute monster and I will be absolutely over the moon if he can land this contest worth over £1.8m to the winner.

sdoc13 · 28-03-2014 9:36pm

rossom wrote: »

4.39 Meydan

Educate 40/1

I think everyone on here knows how much I love this fella and although he's got to take a big step forward to land this contest I think he is primed to run a massive, massive race. Improving all the time, this 5 year old went from an opening mark of 88 last year to land the Cambridgeshire off a mark of 104 (form reads incredibly well) under a huge weight of 9-9 despite hanging badly and there has certainly been encouragement in his 2 starts at Meydan this year. The first of which came on the back of 124 day absence in the Group 2 Al Rashidiya over this C+D at the end of January when finishing a promising 6th beaten less than 4L (pulled quite hard) and I was very surprised and delighted with his last run 3 weeks ago in the Group 1 3rd round of the Al Maktoum challenge. Over 10f on Tapeta (a surface I thought he'd hate given former yard profiler Terry Norman said he didn't sparkle at all on the AW in England during last years pre-season training), I thought Educate ran a blinder under tomorrow's pilot Maxime Guyon to be beaten 2.5L in 5th despite having his run interrupted on a couple of occasions (he's a horse who likes to come with long, withering runs) and I think both runs will have put him spot on for this extremely valuable contest. With a lovely draw in stall 5 and having gained very valuable track experience, Educate represents the 2007 Carnival leading trainer in Ismail Mohammed who bagged 16 winners that year including the UAE Oaks and 1,000 Guineas and I'm sure Educate will be primed to perfection for this Group 1 contest. Returned to turf and over 9f, I'm hoping Guyon positions Educate in the midfield as Meydan isn't a place you want to get too far back and although this is unquestionably his toughest test to date there is no doubt in my mind that there is still improvement left in this son of Echo Of Light. With doubts surrounding The Fugue (never ran at course, lack of a recent run and trip), Just A Way (no course experience and first time abroad) and Dank (lack of a recent run and no course experience), I am utterly astounded to see 40/1 freely available about Educate as I would have gladly backed him at half that price. Still on the upgrade, tomorrow we find out if Educate has the class to cut it at the top level but I firmly believe he is going to run an absolute monster and I will be absolutely over the moon if he can land this contest worth over £1.8m to the winner.

His run the last day was very encouraging. Awful draw and was doing all his best work at the finish. I was surprised watching it how much ground he made up late on. 40/1 huge price about him. Will be having some of that!

walrusgumble · 28-03-2014 10:31pm

UrbanSea wrote: »

Hardly the most memorable jumps season. We have Treve and some nice three year olds to look forward to

I am interested to see how Bolger does with Trading Leather, obviously no where near Treve ,just a horse I liked all year. Maybe he will give Leitir Mor a chance to run his own race (or did he get rid of him) lol.

Also interested to see whether Slade Power will progress further.

Toormore will be interesting, will Australia live up to the hype? Will we have another 3 year old like Ruler of the world who did the business against his own age group despite not running as a two year old...

There is a bit of talk about Weld getting a large order of horsies

UrbanSea · 28-03-2014 10:50pm

Going to take a chance on the well handicapped Fruity O'Rooney tomorrow at 8/1. Not a bad race for the track.

SM746 · 29-03-2014 9:32am

What time would you normally expect all online bookies to have races priced up? For example; Navan today

longshotvalue · 29-03-2014 10:27am

Stratford 4:15

Court By Surprise is dropping down is class here and I’m having trouble finding any viable alternative bar the favourite who has to cope with a big rise in handicap mark. He will need to get over a poor enough run last time when he appeared not to stay after traveling well, but this is a few furlongs shorter and he has been given a decent chance by the handicapper here. I missed the 6/1 last night but 11/2 is still plenty of value and he could well have a bit much for these.

1 Point win 11/2 Various

BumperD · 29-03-2014 10:31am

SM746 wrote: »

What time would you normally expect all online bookies to have races priced up? For example; Navan today

10.30 or 11am

longshotvalue · 29-03-2014 11:21am

Doncaster 3:15

It is somewhat depressing having to look through these races after the excitement of Cheltenham but the NH will be over shortly and I’ll have to get back on the flat handicap train for the Saturday Fix anyway. I had some difficulty finding anything well handicapped here but one that I felt stood out a bit is Born to Surprise. He has a great course record with 2 wins and a decent run out of 3 runs here albeit over 7 Furlongs. He does look like he needs the step up in trip looking at some of his races and in certainly well handicapped on his best form which includes a win with 4 pounds higher. He had a pipe opener on the All Weather lately and ran on well when not really in the race. I’d be hopeful that the trainer has prepared him for this as he doesn’t have many turf runners and the 25/1 with 5 places with BET365 looks the best option here.

½ Point EW 25/1 5 Places Bet365 28/1 4 Places elsewhere.

mailburner · 29-03-2014 11:26am

Johner wrote: »

Flat, ugh.

In the meantime we get to make a few more quid
on solstice son

ShaneU · 29-03-2014 11:35am

Jack Dexter 2/1 2.40 at Donny

Has won 7 out of 8 races on soft ground.

sting60 · 29-03-2014 11:58am

Bill Turner is a man to watch with early 2yr olds so Paddy Again in the first at Donny.A horse I have been watching for a long time and has not had the handbrake off once is Naabegha 80/1 in the Spring mile.Richard Fahy said in November he was bringing his horses in a month earlier than usual so he has to be watched up to Chester with the fact his horses may be fitter than usual for this time of year.Conor Beasley is a young jockey going places so I fancy Outlaw Torn to run well off his current mark.

UrbanSea · 29-03-2014 12:15pm

One I have had my eye on for a while is Docofthebay on a much sliding mark. He walked out of the stalls and wasnt touched at Southwell. Tries a new trip today in a weak race in the second last may not stay but worth a chance around 14s

Nulty · 29-03-2014 12:21pm

Took Jacks Revenge (Lost Bronze Angel @ 25/1) in the Lincoln.

I'm tempted by Boots And Spurs in the Spring Mile but his record on Soft may not be good enough, career high mark but off 11lbs lower ran Educate to a head in similar conditions last year in this race. Short enough though, I'll take a shot at Nameitwhatyoulike for Mick Easterby. He didn't run well in it last year but I will put that down to a one off. He's a course and distance winner with a bit of scope

SM746 · 29-03-2014 12:58pm

Took a chance on Knockroom earlier at 7/1 in 405 Kempton as he is dropped in class and was looking for early price this morning on Benalex Park in 325 Navan as I thought he would see some money but hasn't. Still 12/1 with Boylesports I think.

SM746 · 29-03-2014 1:00pm

Took a chance on Knockroom earlier at 7/1 in 405 Kempton as he is dropped in class and was looking for early price this morning on Benalex Park in 325 Navan as I thought he would see some money but hasn't. Still 12/1 with Boylesports I think.

Whosthis · 29-03-2014 1:22pm

David Evans trains 5 of the 9 runners in the 2yo maiden fillies at kempton (1.50), Chris Caitlin's only ride of the day is on Charlies Star who is just beginning to shorten in price and may be worth a small punt at 7/1. Also interesting that Lucinda Russell sends Ballycool on a solo 600 mile round trip to Uttoxeter for the 4.30, has been a bit inconsistent so far but in with a shout on a going day 8/1.

kiers47 · 29-03-2014 2:28pm

I actually love the brocklesby as a spectacle. An absolute betting minefield though.

Escalating has probably the nicest pedigree but will probably be better during the summer months.

I did think Mountain Man looked a decent sort on paper to be a semi decent 2yo.

The money for Escalating could be informative.

Or could Bill Turner do it again(if he wasn't a bill turner horse in this race he'd be a 20/1 shot so I couldn't have him!)

No bet but Mountain Man and Escalating are the 2 I'm most interested in.

Whosthis · 29-03-2014 3:03pm

Whosthis wrote: »

David Evans trains 5 of the 9 runners in the 2yo maiden fillies at kempton (1.50), Chris Caitlin's only ride of the day is on Charlies Star who is just beginning to shorten in price and may be worth a small punt at 7/1.

Drifted to 10/1 and finished 2nd to an impressive 7l winner Tiggy Wiggy.

UrbanSea · 29-03-2014 3:11pm

God thought that was a woeful ride by Havlin and I didn't have a bet. Let the winner go while he was sitting there cruising

Johner · 29-03-2014 3:11pm

That was a great ride by Seb Sanders :eek:

mailburner · 29-03-2014 3:13pm

jeez that hurt
jockey maybe too confident with a couple of furlongs
to go on the second

kiers47 · 29-03-2014 3:13pm

The only time I backed that horse he failed to win an ascot handicap off a mark of 82.

As Urban said I thought the second got a stinker of a ride!

UrbanSea · 29-03-2014 3:14pm

Boosts Dance and Dance's form, Graphic finished about three lengths in front of him receiving five pounds in the Cambridgeshire with Dance and Dance not getting a clear run. 5lbs lower today than that run

mailburner · 29-03-2014 3:18pm

if trumpet major loses by a head I'll put my foot
through the telly :mad:

Hulk Hands · 29-03-2014 3:28pm

BumperD wrote: »

Sorry but I can never understand this. Every year with the announcement of the flat season we see people crabbing it. It's become like a fashion statement. You never ever see people bemoan the arrival of the NH season. I'm getting a little tired of it to be honest. I love racing. And I certainly don't have an inferiority complex about which code I follow.

Would you crab a soccer fan who said 'ugh international week', or a GAA fan who would crab the league compared to championship? It's a normal reaction when a fan has something they love being replaced with a good but inferior product

BumperD · 29-03-2014 3:31pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Would you crab a soccer fan who said 'ugh international week', or a GAA fan who would crab the league compared to championship? It's a normal reaction when a fan has something they love being replaced with a good but inferior product

We've moved on.

Saturday 29 March

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