The Strike is over. What happens now?

Cavanjack · 26-09-2019 10:59pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

In the factory prices page and I quote

steers are trading at 3.5/kg, with some plants that were unaffected by the protests continuing to purchase at a base of 3.45/kg

Talking to a lad near one and he said it was true.

Cant understand lads sending cattle to factories paying 5 cent less than another factory. They’ll not bother increasing the price if they keep getting cattle. Too many people with loyalty to the one factory.

Bass Reeves · 26-09-2019 11:23pm

Cavanjack wrote: »

Cant understand lads sending cattle to factories paying 5 cent less than another factory. They’ll not bother increasing the price if they keep getting cattle. Too many people with loyalty to the one factory.

My point had nothing to do with bargaining. Processors are making a big hoo-ha about looking after loyal suppliers. This shows exactly there appreciation of loyal suppliers. It seems they are screwing lads around factories where there was no protest and paying up at factories where there was protests. Hope these loyal suppliers remember this when the next protest starts.

Base price · 26-09-2019 11:44pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

My point had nothing to do with bargaining. Processors are making a big hoo-ha about looking after loyal suppliers. This shows exactly there appreciation of loyal suppliers. It seems they are screwing lads around factories where there was no protest and paying up at factories where there was protests. Hope these loyal suppliers remember this when the next protest starts.

IMO that is bolloxology (apologies Greysides

) and as I have previously posted, don't believe everything that you read.
I've had no issue with prices or booking in our own cattle/transporting a few for the couple of local older farmers that haven't any means to get to the factory.

CloughCasey1 · 27-09-2019 12:02am

Base price wrote: »

Ah, don't believe everything that's printed.

We got 3.50 for a few that we brought that were going overage on Tuesday from a factory that wasn't blockaded.

Sure agents always get 5c more. (I wont tell anyone)

Base price · 27-09-2019 12:36am

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

Sure agents always get 5c more. (I wont tell anyone)

Jaysus I always thought that agents got 10c?

kk.man · 27-09-2019 7:26am

Base price wrote: »

Ah, don't believe everything that's printed.

We got 3.50 for a few that we brought that were going overage on Tuesday from a factory that wasn't blockaded.

I got 3.50 from a factory that had no protests and a rather large one which was shutdown by protests offered me 3.45. Looking up the journal average price for the larger one its shown closer to 3.50.

wrangler · 27-09-2019 10:37am

Just when thought it couldn't get any worse.

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/news/farming-news/welsh-farmers-threaten-legal-action-if-brexit-allows-backdoor-for-irish-beef-imports-38539828.html?fbclid=IwAR3jwS4HiwGLafBoAVKfbPf8pUD1PVq3BGc9OChaClgwJyWGa9B1DuAc4PQ

Muckit · 27-09-2019 10:50am

Brexit is the big one. Of that there is no doubt.

K.G. · 27-09-2019 12:24pm

wrangler wrote: »

Just when thought it couldn't get any worse.

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/news/farming-news/welsh-farmers-threaten-legal-action-if-brexit-allows-backdoor-for-irish-beef-imports-38539828.html?fbclid=IwAR3jwS4HiwGLafBoAVKfbPf8pUD1PVq3BGc9OChaClgwJyWGa9B1DuAc4PQ

You wouldn't want to put the.idea of blockades in to their head would you.where would they get idea like that from

wrangler · 27-09-2019 12:57pm

K.G. wrote: »

You wouldn't want to put the.idea of blockades in to their head would you.where would they get idea like that from

I wonder did they stop the fridges at the port today

Bass Reeves · 27-09-2019 1:25pm

wrangler wrote: »

Just when thought it couldn't get any worse.

https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/news/farming-news/welsh-farmers-threaten-legal-action-if-brexit-allows-backdoor-for-irish-beef-imports-38539828.html?fbclid=IwAR3jwS4HiwGLafBoAVKfbPf8pUD1PVq3BGc9OChaClgwJyWGa9B1DuAc4PQ

Welsh farmers will have bigger problems if there is no deal. It is anticipated that the UK will have to set tariff rates very low to feed itself. If tariffs are set at present rates the UK would suffer rampant food inflation. The UK government will not allow that much preferable that a back door deal with Ireland rather that cheaper product from South America has unfettered access and drives beef,lamb dairy and other agri products down 30-40% below the cost of UK production

Water John · 27-09-2019 1:53pm

Lamb to France would be Welsh farmers biggest worry if there is a No Deal Brexit.

Danzy · 27-09-2019 2:00pm

Most of the lorry drivers in Europe now are Eastern European in a No Deal Brexit, their licences will not be valid in the U.K.. no insurance.

Most pallets in the EU are standardized bar the ones from the U.K., which are also the style I Asia. That size pallet is illegal in the EU if from non EU countries, due to pests in Asian pallets.

2 small things but both are massive

Bass Reeves · 27-09-2019 4:13pm

Water John wrote: »

Lamb to France would be Welsh farmers biggest worry if there is a No Deal Brexit.

If there is an agri back door it will be through Larne. The Welsh farmers will have to travel a distance. To blockade beef from Ireland

Muckit · 28-09-2019 10:09am

Thought this would be a good timely exercise !

You have 12 cattle to go. But factory will only take 5. 2 are gone overage.

Do you:
A) send the 5 oldest cattle (incl the 2 overage)

keep the 2 overage and send the next 5 oldest
C) send the 5 fittest cattle out of the bunch of 12 regardless of age.
D) Tell your agent/procurement manager where to go and take to the drink!

FarmerDougal · 28-09-2019 10:19am

Muckit wrote: »

Thought this would be a good timely exercise !

You have 12 cattle to go. But factory will only take 5. 2 are gone overage.

Do you:
A) send the 5 oldest cattle (incl the 2 overage)
keep the 2 overage and send the next 5 oldest
C) send the 5 fittest cattle out of the bunch of 12 regardless of age.
D) Tell your agent/procurement manager where to go and take to the drink!

Option B as long as next five are 2+ or more

Bass Reeves · 28-09-2019 10:24am

Muckit wrote: »

Thought this would be a good timely exercise !

You have 12 cattle to go. But factory will only take 5. 2 are gone overage.

Do you:
A) send the 5 oldest cattle (incl the 2 overage)
keep the 2 overage and send the next 5 oldest
C) send the 5 fittest cattle out of the bunch of 12 regardless of age.
D) Tell your agent/procurement manager where to go and take to the drink!

It would depend on which cattle will increase most in value between now and when you sell the rest. I be moving cattle that are nearest going over age. The ones that are overage could stay or go depending on your situation with the rest of the cattle. I be moving anything going over age in the next 21 days.

Muckit · 28-09-2019 10:27am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It would depend on which cattle will increase most in value between now and when you sell the rest. I be moving cattle that are nearest going over age. The ones that are overage could stay or go depending on your situation with the rest of the cattle. I be moving anything going over age in the next 21 days.

You have to pick an option Bass. They are "your" cattle.

Hershall · 28-09-2019 12:45pm

Muckit wrote: »

Thought this would be a good timely exercise !

You have 12 cattle to go. But factory will only take 5. 2 are gone overage.

Do you:
A) send the 5 oldest cattle (incl the 2 overage)
keep the 2 overage and send the next 5 oldest
C) send the 5 fittest cattle out of the bunch of 12 regardless of age.
D) Tell your agent/procurement manager where to go and take to the drink!

B all day long

Dunedin · 28-09-2019 12:57pm

Muckit wrote: »

Thought this would be a good timely exercise !

You have 12 cattle to go. But factory will only take 5. 2 are gone overage.

Do you:
A) send the 5 oldest cattle (incl the 2 overage)
keep the 2 overage and send the next 5 oldest
C) send the 5 fittest cattle out of the bunch of 12 regardless of age.
D) Tell your agent/procurement manager where to go and take to the drink!

Definitely Option D

Siamsa Sessions · 28-09-2019 2:38pm

Muckit wrote: »

Thought this would be a good timely exercise !

You have 12 cattle to go. But factory will only take 5. 2 are gone overage.

Do you:
A) send the 5 oldest cattle (incl the 2 overage)
keep the 2 overage and send the next 5 oldest
C) send the 5 fittest cattle out of the bunch of 12 regardless of age.
D) Tell your agent/procurement manager where to go and take to the drink!

I was going to say, put Euro figures on each option but sure that’s the problem isn’t it? You won’t know what the figures are til a few days *after* they’re sold

Bass Reeves · 28-09-2019 3:40pm

Muckit wrote: »

You have to pick an option Bass. They are "your" cattle.

If they are my cattle I can do what like with them therefore I go as posted. other than that B is more than likely the best option if they are all fit for slaughter

Good loser · 29-09-2019 11:36pm

Option E: Sell the 5 fittest cattle of the 10 that are under age.

Base price · 30-09-2019 12:10pm

British beef prices take a hit - https://www.farmersjournal.ie/british-beef-demand-and-prices-hit-by-perfect-storm-496851

Muckit · 30-09-2019 12:30pm

Not to seem ungrateful or anything but all them links Base Price can't be read unless u are a subscriber. And if one was a subscriber you'd prob b able to get it yourself!

Base price · 30-09-2019 12:32pm

Muckit wrote: »

Not to seem ungrateful or anything but all them links Base Price can't be read unless u are a subscriber. And if one was a subscriber you'd prob b able to get it yourself!

Oh sorry, I didn't realise they were subscription only.

Muckit · 30-09-2019 12:37pm

Base price wrote: »

Oh sorry, I didn't realise they were subscription only.

Tis gas and l click EVERY time then big red screen tell me to subscribe!! ;-)

blue5000 · 30-09-2019 2:06pm

Muckit wrote: »

Thought this would be a good timely exercise !

You have 12 cattle to go. But factory will only take 5. 2 are gone overage.

Do you:
A) send the 5 oldest cattle (incl the 2 overage)
keep the 2 overage and send the next 5 oldest
C) send the 5 fittest cattle out of the bunch of 12 regardless of age.
D) Tell your agent/procurement manager where to go and take to the drink!

With the day that's in it D,
next best is B,
then A, no point in feeding overage cattle.
Finally C, some places aren't cutting overage for the month of Oct, but that might just be a rumour.

tractorporn · 01-10-2019 8:44pm

I think this is the kind of protest we should have done rather than blockading the factories

https://twitter.com/Paploo968/status/1178935290943197184?s=09

Dinzee Conlee · 01-10-2019 8:48pm

tractorporn wrote: »

I think this is the kind of protest we should have done rather than blockading the factories

https://twitter.com/Paploo968/status/1178935290943197184?s=09

What are the Dutch protesting for, what is it they want?

MIKEKC · 01-10-2019 9:38pm

Dinzee Conlee wrote: »

What are the Dutch protesting for, what is it they want?

As the title of this is What happens now. It would appear that we will have to wait to get cattle killed. Impossible to gat over 30 months away. Cattle booked in over 3 weeks ago and no hope of getting them away to ABP Cahir

Nobbies · 01-10-2019 9:58pm

MIKEKC wrote: »

As the title of this is What happens now. It would appear that we will have to wait to get cattle killed. Impossible to gat over 30 months away. Cattle booked in over 3 weeks ago and no hope of getting them away to ABP Cahir

I have to say the blockade that happened has knocked my confidence in beef finishing going forward. leaving aside the unknowns of brexit yet. can we expect another blockade when base price gets ahit, leaving those of us who do depend on factories being open for business somewhere we don't want to be.

Mooooo · 01-10-2019 9:58pm

Dinzee Conlee wrote: »

What are the Dutch protesting for, what is it they want?

They are sick of being blamed for all climate issues, I think some one in Dutch parliament suggested halving the number of livestock in the country

Siamsa Sessions · 01-10-2019 11:41pm

Mooooo wrote: »

They are sick of being blamed for all climate issues, I think some one in Dutch parliament suggested halving the number of livestock in the country

Maybe they should reintroduce wolves who can then eat those unwanted cattle?

Have they a real Green Party over there? Or a posh-boy one like here whose leader seems to genuinely think wolves should be imported and released into the Irish countryside?

CloughCasey1 · 01-10-2019 11:57pm

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

Maybe they should reintroduce wolves who can then eat those unwanted *humans*?

Have they a real Green Party over there? Or a posh-boy one like here whose leader seems to genuinely think wolves should be imported and released into the Irish countryside?

Fixed that for ya!

longgonesilver · 02-10-2019 1:50am

If someone fenced in say 100 acres of woods and imported 50 wolves would enough people pay to see them to make it financially viable? I know it would be more like a zoo than wolves in the wild. More importantly a few setups like that would give an alternative to Larry for offal disposal!!

Bass Reeves · 02-10-2019 8:51am

longgonesilver wrote: »

If someone fenced in say 100 acres of woods and imported 50 wolves would enough people pay to see them to make it financially viable? I know it would be more like a zoo than wolves in the wild. More importantly a few setups like that would give an alternative to Larry for offal disposal!!

The quite simple answer is no. Cost alone would be horrorendus. The logistics of feeding them and keeping the Forrest floor in the right condition for them as well.How would you manage there breeding. There would be enough wolves there to form 2-3 packs and they would more than likly kill each other Finally the dreaded insurance bill would break you.

Bass Reeves · 02-10-2019 9:30am

Nobbies wrote: »

I have to say the blockade that happened has knocked my confidence in beef finishing going forward. leaving aside the unknowns of brexit yet. can we expect another blockade when base price gets ahit, leaving those of us who do depend on factories being open for business somewhere we don't want to be.

The blockades are a short-term blip in the beef finishing. Finisher's should look at the longer-term picture. The blockades were a expression of the issues that store, calf to beef men and Suckler farmers were suffering. They were losing money.
You post about being dependent on factories being open for business. you also need lads to produce the stores you finish. If these lads are losing money they will exit the business. You have to look at the complete picture. As much as you need the factories open you also need store men to have confidance to replace stock they sell.
The lad that buys dairy calves is key next spring. There is already an reduction in Suckler cow numbers and the trend will continue downwards so the stores from this direction will reduce by 150k over the next 2-3 years at least. The export of dairy calves exploded last spring expect it to rise again next spring. On 2years time there will be 250k less cattle in the country. The lad most exposed is the larger finisher. How many calf to beef men that stat at it will have what ever product they produce. The smaller finisher like myself get in earlier in the cycle than the larger shorter term finisher so should be less exposed to the shortages in numbers.
If prices continue to decline in two years time you be somewhere you do not want to be either

mf240 · 02-10-2019 10:20am

When I heard the greens wanted to reintroduce wolves, I assumed they wanted to prop up fianna fail again.

Muckit · 02-10-2019 10:55am

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The blockades are a short-term blip in the beef finishing. Finisher's should look at the longer-term picture. The blockades were a expression of the issues that store, calf to beef men and Suckler farmers were suffering. They were losing money.
You post about being dependent on factories being open for business. you also need lads to produce the stores you finish. If these lads are losing money they will exit the business. You have to look at the complete picture.

This is the thing. Too many lads can't see further than they're nose. Some have posted about still making money this year despite the poor beef price. But l ask, at who's expense?

EVERYONE in the chain has to be making a few quid or things are not sustainable. That means the suckler man and the store man. I even include factories and retailers. But as we know they make sure that they cover their end.

Panch18 · 02-10-2019 11:24am

Muckit wrote: »

This is the thing. Too many lads can't see further than they're nose. Some have posted about still making money this year despite the poor beef price. But l ask, at who's expense?

EVERYONE in the chain has to be making a few quid or things are not sustainable. That means the suckler man and the store man. I even include factories and retailers. But as we know they make sure that they cover their end.

The price of stores is good this back end, especially considering the upheaval and factory price.

What exactly is the problem?

Bass Reeves · 02-10-2019 1:30pm

Panch18 wrote: »

The price of stores is good this back end, especially considering the upheaval and factory price.

What exactly is the problem?

The glut of store has still to come out. When and if( numbers may be lower than expected the real upheaval in prices will be felt. Yes relative to the beef price some of us are receiving the store price is not reflecting the total fall in beef prices. However the protest has put a floor under prices at present. We be at least 30C/kg lower except for them and that would have knocked another 70-100/head off the store price. However the lower weight store is not as resilient as the heavier store and its similar with weanlings.

However even at that lads are only breaking even when you look at costs especially on more marginal land. The real effect will be next spring as exporters may well hover up double the number of calves they did last year and we will also see an issue with what will happen to the poorer quality calf.

Anto_Meath · 02-10-2019 3:01pm

At the mart last night it was very evident that weanlins in the 250 - 350 kg bracket if they were red limo or Ch were very much in demand by the exporters and making €2.50 - €2.80 a kg, but anything that they didn't want, ie Black Lims, brown CH and anything near 400 kgs were a lot harder to sell. It will be the same with the calves, the exporters will want the good Fr at a price meaning the rubbish will be left behind, with no market for them, even getting them for nothing wouldn't encourage lads to feed them.

Panch18 · 02-10-2019 4:46pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The glut of store has still to come out. When and if( numbers may be lower than expected the real upheaval in prices will be felt. Yes relative to the beef price some of us are receiving the store price is not reflecting the total fall in beef prices. However the protest has put a floor under prices at present. We be at least 30C/kg lower except for them and that would have knocked another 70-100/head off the store price. However the lower weight store is not as resilient as the heavier store and its similar with weanlings.

However even at that lads are only breaking even when you look at costs especially on more marginal land. The real effect will be next spring as exporters may well hover up double the number of calves they did last year and we will also see an issue with what will happen to the poorer quality calf.

The reality is that store producers are no worse off this year than most other years. Cattle were very dear in 2018 back end so not a great comparison, but apart from that this year is as good as any year for the store man

There is a lot of conjecture and surmising going on - but the reality is the store producers is no worse off than most years

Mooooo · 02-10-2019 5:45pm

Is it not the exporters putting a floor in the mart trade taking a share of bulls etc? Competition is the only thing that will.help prices if numbers stay up and there is none really with a limited live trade

Good loser · 02-10-2019 8:30pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The glut of store has still to come out. When and if( numbers may be lower than expected the real upheaval in prices will be felt. Yes relative to the beef price some of us are receiving the store price is not reflecting the total fall in beef prices. However the protest has put a floor under prices at present. We be at least 30C/kg lower except for them and that would have knocked another 70-100/head off the store price. However the lower weight store is not as resilient as the heavier store and its similar with weanlings.

However even at that lads are only breaking even when you look at costs especially on more marginal land. The real effect will be next spring as exporters may well hover up double the number of calves they did last year and we will also see an issue with what will happen to the poorer quality calf.

We don't know if prices would have fallen another 30 c/kg. The idea that something permanent has changed in the market is 'for the birds'.

It could be that if cattle had moved at the normal rate (with the currency turning) prices could have recovered of their own volition. And might be higher now.
I've heard of factories losing key staff during the break and Brexit is getting ever closer.

Anto_Meath · 03-10-2019 8:49am

Mooooo wrote: »

Is it not the exporters putting a floor in the mart trade taking a share of bulls etc? Competition is the only thing that will.help prices if numbers stay up and there is none really with a limited live trade

Yes it is the exporters that are putting a floor under the lighter bulls. There is a few boats to leave between now and the end of the year. The more that goes the better it leave less for Larry so he might have to up the price a wee bit.

Genghis Cant · 03-10-2019 9:13am

Anyone else having trouble getting cattle away to the factory?
I'm being put off day after day.

Bass Reeves · 03-10-2019 9:16am

Good loser wrote: »

We don't know if prices would have fallen another 30 c/kg. The idea that something permanent has changed in the market is 'for the birds'.

It could be that if cattle had moved at the normal rate (with the currency turning) prices could have recovered of their own volition. And might be higher now.
I've heard of factories losing key staff during the break and Brexit is getting ever closer.

We have a fair idea they would have. Even after the first strike the processors tried to drop them to 3.4/kg this started the second strike. Processors would have dropped prices straigh through from Late July to Mid September unless there was a drastic drop in Cattle numbers maybe even if there was. Even now after the second strike it is only the fear of the consequences that is stopping them pulling prices.

Anto_Meath · 03-10-2019 10:37am

Genghis Cant wrote: »

Anyone else having trouble getting cattle away to the factory?
I'm being put off day after day.

Ye they are cutting back on the kill, only killing half days, they are saying it is because they lost staff during the strikes so cant process the meat, which is possible. There seems to be a lot of factory fit cattle appearing in the marts recently and I would guess with this wet weather there will be more.

The Strike is over. What happens now?

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