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Much colder Tues onward ------>Frost/wintry showers (Risk of snow in East for a time)

  • 30-03-2012 1:10pm
    #1
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭


    Looks like wintry weather on the way. Some models even show a risk of snow showers in the East midweek as very cold artic air moves down over the country. No certainty how long the much colder weather might last but some interesting charts none the less.


    198251.GIF

    198252.GIF


    Definitely a very different week coming up wrt the weather. Frost becoming widespread and severe as night time temperatures end up a good few degrees below freezing. A bitter temporary Northeasterly may prevent frost in the East but could also bring heavy hail, sleet and snow showers. Keep up to date here! Bbl.


«134567

Comments

  • #2
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    I knew Darkman 2 would be back!!
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=77761016


  • #3
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    if this was up to a month ago i would be very excited but at this stage it's way too late. Chance's are all most of us will see is frost and cold rain/sleet. Hopefully this will be very short lived.


  • #4
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Gonzo wrote: »
    if this was up to a month ago i would be very excited but at this stage it's way too late. Chance's are all most of us will see is frost and cold rain/sleet. Hopefully this will be very short lived.

    If the source of the cold was deep enough it wouldnt really make a difference to be honest.


  • #5
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    One last gasp of winter looks very possible alright... but goose bumps on top of sunburn doesn't really go does it?! :D


  • #6
    Chucky Norris
    Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭Chucky Norris


    please snow piss off and return in December if you don't mind so theres no chance of a warm weather next week is there :pac:


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  • #7
    sunbabe08
    Registered Users Posts: 6,327 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    ahhh for feck sake. :mad: i want sunshine.


  • #8
    TanG411
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,836 ✭✭✭TanG411


    You've made my day Darkman2.


  • #9
    lesserspottedchloe
    Registered Users Posts: 237 ✭✭lesserspottedchloe


    I've been planning on getting out to West Clare for a few surfs all week in work-reeeally looking forward to splashing about in the sunshine...ffs! I love cold weather but its too late now-feck off snow! (mind you it'll probably just mist a constant and depressing drizzle in the West):pac:


  • #10
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    No thanks, It's well past my snow watching time. I want sun, heat and boobies hanging out.


  • #11
    Chicken Run
    Registered Users Posts: 595 ✭✭✭Chicken Run


    ...teach me to plant my peas out in March won't it ?

    *digs out bubble wrap*


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  • #12
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Oh my poor petunias. Must dig out the straw.


  • #13
    pauldry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    temperatures of around 4 to 8c by day and snow on mountains some wintry showers at lower levels. more exciting than constant mist and more sun than dull damp grey.

    it could be cold for quite a bit of April but not extremely. mite have to change my Boards Forecast IMT but I think ill leave it. Think end of April will be warm.:cool:


  • #14
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,760 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    I wouldn't be suprised if we saw more frost and snow in April then we saw all winter:rolleyes:


  • #15
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    I wouldn't be suprised if we saw more frost and snow in April then we saw all winter:rolleyes:

    Nuthin nuts about you Bird. This would also be Darkmans second right call on the trot...well done Darkman. :cool:


  • #16
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,183 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    Really? I spotted a potential northerly a week ago and even predicted the reappearance of Darkman. :pac:


  • #17
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 16,720 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I would suggest that this thread title be prefixed 'Late Winter' to go with the more recent 'Early Summer' thread :pac:


  • #18
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Hey all! Alot of positivity in here! :D

    More confidence in the forecast for next week now. Good agreement on a much colder midweek. This looks temporary atm so by Friday temperatures may recover somewhat. Increasingly it looks like Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday is the timeframe to watch. There is a real risk now of either a prolonged spell of rain turning to sleet and snow or heavy showers in the East and Southeast in particular which could well be snow showers. This is a bit awkward in terms of specifics. I am confident enough though we may well have the forum lit up like a Christmas tree on Tuesday night the way the trend is:)


    Latest UKMO pressure and 850hpa temp chart and precipitation for Tuesday

    UW72-21.GIF?31-18

    UW72-7.GIF?31-18

    UW72-594.GIF?31-18

    :cool:


  • #19
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Just looking at the the forecast after the six one news, no mention of next week, and 10 degrees over us Tuesday and nothing to wintry on MT'S update this morning are we all looking at the same models:)


  • #20
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    Just looking at the the forecast after the six one news, no mention of next week, and 10 degrees over us Tuesday and nothing to wintry on MT'S update this morning are we all looking at the same models:)

    Yup. No question things will be going downhill for the sun worshippers on Tuesday very rapidly. They just don't want to officially depress the nation yet;)


    And the speed of change is quite something - looking at 7 or 8c currently widely on Tuesday morning falling into low single figures by the afternoon. This is associated with a cold front that has a very sharp thermal gradient on current forecasts and hence the threat of frontal rain turning to snow during the day. Definitely something to track although it's not completely nailed yet.


  • #21
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Seems to be a small potential for some heavy showers to develop overland this coming Monday as the fairly slack air mass destabilizes a little during the afternoon but may depend on how much high cloud there is ahead of an approaching front.

    PS. I really hope this cold spell does not last too long.


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  • #22
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Joe Bastardi ‏ @BigJoeBastardi By by spring UK and western Europe.. snow coming to alot of places along with well below norm temps


  • #23
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    You can't beat a good Darkman2 thread :) For genuine weather fans its going to be a very interesting week ahead. Personally i love when a cold front passes through and the temps drop like a stone in a short space of time. Some really fantastic charts for mid week :D


  • #24
    mike65
    Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    May this **** off back oop north pronto.


  • #25
    JJJJNR
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,791 ✭✭✭JJJJNR


    its snowing in Rathdrum....!!


  • #26
    Diamond Dust
    Closed Accounts Posts: 144 ✭✭Diamond Dust


    JJJJNR wrote: »
    its snowing in Rathdrum....!!

    April 1st


  • #27
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Seems boards.ie has contrived to make the charts not viewable for the day (April 1st).


    You can view lots of stuff on these sites in any case...I doubt anything barring the earth shifting on it's axis is going to change the forecast drastically at this stage.

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html


    http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfse_cartes.php


    http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&VAR=prec


  • #28
    irelandspurs
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,082 ✭✭✭irelandspurs


    Think of the poor lambs :(


  • #29
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,760 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    I have a feeling that this April will be a very different one from the last few years;)


  • #30
    eskimocat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Well I suppose we cannot complain that the weather has been boring meh for the past week or so, and it seems to be shaping up for some interesting charts ahead. Wonder what the possibility of sleet or snow will do to the numbers on here???:D Come out, come out where-ever you are Snowbunnies.... Easter is coming...


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  • #31
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Well I have to say I'm somewhat excited at a brief flirt with cold, this could produce accumulations of snowin some places, all going to plan of course.
    hirlam-0-57_yey5.png

    hirlam-2-60_dtg7.png

    hirlam-1-57_hqr3.png


  • #32
    desolate sun
    Registered Users Posts: 347 ✭✭desolate sun


    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
    Can't see those images, red sunset
    It says you need a gold Boards account to see them.

    After seeing NO snow at all, this winter, I am seriously thinking of booking a holiday to some snowy land (even though I can't afford it, but I need my snow fix so bad). This thread, at least gives me hope. :)


  • #33
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    48 hours around Tuesday Wednesday Thursday look like the extent of this blashteen and with the weather recovering towards todays loveliness thereafter.


  • #34
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    To be honest,lets introduce a little reality here.
    No one away from the mountain tops will be pegging snow balls from this.
    It's just not cold enough.


  • #35
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    My guess would be: lying snow over 250/300 metres, mixing with possible wet snow below that line.


  • #36
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    blackius wrote: »
    To be honest,lets introduce a little reality here.
    No one away from the mountain tops will be pegging snow balls from this.
    It's just not cold enough.

    UKMO is showing a sharp thermal gradient. For example temperatures in your area by 2pm Tuesday maxing at around 5c (cold enough for sleet) - further North including Dublin and the North Irish sea maxima at that time is 3c (that's the middle of the day) with the fronts still straddling the centre of the country. Like any potential frontal snow it's a marginal call. I do think at the very least some light to moderate snow should be expected later Tuesday and not only on high ground. Also important is where the cold and warm fronts pivot. The further west the better from a snow point of view. Currently this looks to happen over England and Wales but it affects the East for a time aswell. Nothing is certain regarding this but it's something watch.


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  • #37
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,428 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    Intrestring to note that we in ireland get more white easters than white x-mas,hope the warm weather back soon was getting use to having bbq for dinner;)
    i have not been able to read any charts for the last two week as my wife had twins our fist borne:D and have been very busy,does any one know if the asourse high is going to hang around or rebuild or has it retreated ?


  • #38
    snaps
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    I just think that if we get percip at night we have a strong possibly of lying snow, Daytime with this lovely strong sun is more of a challenge for snow??


  • #39
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    snaps wrote: »
    I just think that if we get percip at night we have a strong possibly of lying snow, Daytime with this lovely strong sun is more of a challenge for snow??

    Absolutely. The chances of snow to low levels increases significantly at this time of year during night time. In this case most of the precipitation may have cleared by night fall but showers or light - moderate sleet or snow may effect exposed coasts - specifically the East. Further inland through Tuesday evening it would not surprise me at all to see back edge snow. The temperature will be dropping like a stone through Tuesday from the North. It's set up almost perfectly IMO. I know others are a bit more sceptical. Unsurprising given the near misses of the Winter.


  • #40
    sunbabe08
    Registered Users Posts: 6,327 ✭✭✭sunbabe08


    i'm gonna ask, what are the chances like for cork city getting some of this snow?

    because if you say no chance than at least i won't be looking around the window every 2 minutes wondering is there snow coming


  • #41
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    sunbabe08 wrote: »
    i'm gonna ask, what are the chances like for cork city getting some of this snow?

    because if you say no chance than at least i won't be looking around the window every 2 minutes wondering is there snow coming


    Maybe it will, maybe it won't. ;)

    No really bit early yet to be that specific:)


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  • #42
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Not even a mention of a wintry shower from Gerry:) after the news


  • #43
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Absolutely. The chances of snow to low levels increases significantly at this time of year during night time. .

    :eek: Could you explain that one please?
    ZX7R wrote: »
    Intrestring to note that we in ireland get more white easters than white x-mas


    Sorry but I seriously doubt that.
    In my lifetime I have had 4 white christamses that I can remember and 0 white Easters.
    Also worth nothing that We have had 23C in places this week and I don't think that that temperature could ever happen at Christmas time therefore in my eye Snow is more likely at Christmas.


  • #44
    compsys
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭compsys


    Pangea wrote: »
    :eek: Could you explain that one please?




    Sorry but I seriously doubt that.
    In my lifetime I have had 4 white christamses that I can remember and 0 white Easters.
    Also worth nothing that We have had 23C in places this week and I don't think that that temperature could ever happen at Christmas time therefore in my eye Snow is more likely at Christmas.

    I think you're wrong.

    I've heard many people say that it's more likely to snow at Easter than Xmas. Remember, Easter can often fall in late March, when it most certainly can still snow in Ireland. Also, apart from the last three years, I can't remember the last time it snowed in December. In Ireland, December is still usually far too early for snow.

    Also, you can't simply reverse the seasons the way you're implying. Yes, it can get cold and snow at Easter. But no one's saying that that means it can also get up to 23c in December (just because it can the odd time at Easter).


  • #45
    srocliffe
    Registered Users Posts: 117 ✭✭srocliffe


    Pangea wrote: »
    :eek: Could you explain that one please?




    Sorry but I seriously doubt that.
    In my lifetime I have had 4 white christamses that I can remember and 0 white Easters.
    Also worth nothing that We have had 23C in places this week and I don't think that that temperature could ever happen at Christmas time therefore in my eye Snow is more likely at Christmas.

    I can't speak for Donegal, where perhaps you get more snow at Christmas time, but from memory, Christmas day 2010, was for Dublin the first White Christmas since the 1970s as far as I can remember (by White Christmas I'm talking about lying snow on Christmas day). In the same timeframe I can remember at least 3 occasions and probably more where it snowed in late March or April (although I can't say for certain if the snow coincided with Easter weekend), so I honestly don't think it is a wild statement to make, as snow in March and April is actually more common in Dublin than snow in December, which out side of 2010 is actually quite rare in the last 30 years.


  • #46
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    compsys wrote: »
    I think you're wrong.

    I've heard many people say that it's more likely to snow at Easter than Xmas. Remember, Easter can often fall in late March, when it most certainly can still snow in Ireland. Also, apart form the last three years, I can't remember the last time it snowed in December. In Ireland, December is still usually far too early for snow.

    Also, you can't simply reverse the seasons the way you're implying. Yes, it can get cold and snow at Easter. But no one's saying that that means it can also get up to 23c in December (just because it can at Easter).

    I've heard many people say it too here, what I am saying is that I have never ever seen a white Easter but seen snow in December plenty of times. go figure.
    I have seen snow plenty of times in February and March yes and the odd time in April.

    When was the last white easter?? and by white do you mean a small coat that melts when the sun comes up at 8 am? The white Christmases I have experienced had snow lying on the ground for days and days.

    Since Easter is a movable date it makes the chances of a white easter less measurable to Christmas and less likely in my opinion and experience. :cool:
    I would agree that snow in General is more likely in February and even March than December but to say a white Easter is more likely than a white Christmas is a bit of a stretch.

    I mentioned the 23c to compare how strong the sun can get this time of year, snow has less chance of sticking around with the strong sun and longer days.


  • #47
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Injecting a bit of science into the thread, it has to be said that the air is less humid February-April, dew-points lower and therefore snow is more likely to fall. However, as already mentioned, a stronger sun means that any snow is less likely to stick around for a prolonged period of time. Also, it is common for snow-flakes to fall with temps well above zero in March/April (up to 4/5 C), even though accumulations are ruled out with these temps.

    Regarding the Christmas/Easter debate, who cares? We all agree on the fact that it is more common to see snow falling in Feb-Start April than before.

    I am confident lower lying locations will see a flake or two in the following days. I am glad that the forecast cold will not last that long as nature is ahead of schedule. More than anything, we need rain (here in the East especially).


  • #48
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Just going by stats from Dublin Airport since 1973, Pangea is right in that it is more likely to snow on Christmas Day than Easter Sunday, but it is more likely to snow in and around the Easter period than the Christmas one oddly enough. Since 1973, it snowed on 7 Christmas Days at the Airport, and on 3 Easter Sundays.

    Just to add, my birthday sometimes falls on Easter and from personal observation, the weather is usually crap around that time :rolleyes:


    http://www.ogimet.com/gsodc.phtml.en
    http://www.tutiempo.net/clima/Dublin_Airport/1973/39690.htm
    http://www.gmarts.org/index.php?go=413


  • #49
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    ....


    198587.gif




    GAME ONNN! :D


  • #50
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    ....


    198587.gif




    [SIZE="5"]GAME ONNN! :D [/SIZE]
    I don't know why they bother with any colour other than the shades of pink because areas in red and yellow in reality never receive snow from those charts.
    So it's game on alright ...if you're booked into a b&b in glencoe I suppose :D


  • #51
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    ECM 12z 6pm Tuesday


    120401_1200_54.png


    120401_1200_54.png


    Tuesday night, interesting for the East and Southeast, no doubt outbreaks of light or moderate snow a real possibility on current forecast

    9pm

    120401_1200_57.png


    120401_1200_57.png

    6am Wednesday - a few (likely) snow showers there drifting onshore

    120401_1200_66.png

    120401_1200_66.png


    Tuesday night is going to be a very cold night btw. Temperatures well below freezing - down as low as -5, even -6c in one or two spots inland so it could well be an icy Wednesday morning.


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