Much colder Tues onward ------>Frost/wintry showers (Risk of snow in East for a time)

darkman2

Looks like wintry weather on the way. Some models even show a risk of snow showers in the East midweek as very cold artic air moves down over the country. No certainty how long the much colder weather might last but some interesting charts none the less.







Definitely a very different week coming up wrt the weather. Frost becoming widespread and severe as night time temperatures end up a good few degrees below freezing. A bitter temporary Northeasterly may prevent frost in the East but could also bring heavy hail, sleet and snow showers. Keep up to date here! Bbl.

Elmer Blooker

I knew Darkman 2 would be back!!
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=77761016

Gonzo

if this was up to a month ago i would be very excited but at this stage it's way too late. Chance's are all most of us will see is frost and cold rain/sleet. Hopefully this will be very short lived.

Musicman2000

Gonzo wrote: »

if this was up to a month ago i would be very excited but at this stage it's way too late. Chance's are all most of us will see is frost and cold rain/sleet. Hopefully this will be very short lived.

If the source of the cold was deep enough it wouldnt really make a difference to be honest.

Strangegravy

One last gasp of winter looks very possible alright... but goose bumps on top of sunburn doesn't really go does it?!

Chucky Norris

please snow piss off and return in December if you don't mind so theres no chance of a warm weather next week is there :pac:

sunbabe08

ahhh for feck sake. :mad: i want sunshine.

TanG411

You've made my day Darkman2.

lesserspottedchloe

I've been planning on getting out to West Clare for a few surfs all week in work-reeeally looking forward to splashing about in the sunshine...ffs! I love cold weather but its too late now-feck off snow! (mind you it'll probably just mist a constant and depressing drizzle in the West):pac:

TheMilkyPirate

No thanks, It's well past my snow watching time. I want sun, heat and boobies hanging out.

Chicken Run

...teach me to plant my peas out in March won't it ?

*digs out bubble wrap*

Sponge Bob

Oh my poor petunias. Must dig out the straw.

pauldry

temperatures of around 4 to 8c by day and snow on mountains some wintry showers at lower levels. more exciting than constant mist and more sun than dull damp grey.

it could be cold for quite a bit of April but not extremely. mite have to change my Boards Forecast IMT but I think ill leave it. Think end of April will be warm.:cool:

Birdnuts

I wouldn't be suprised if we saw more frost and snow in April then we saw all winter:rolleyes:

Sponge Bob

Birdnuts wrote: »

I wouldn't be suprised if we saw more frost and snow in April then we saw all winter:rolleyes:

Nuthin nuts about you Bird. This would also be Darkmans second right call on the trot...well done Darkman. :cool:

Elmer Blooker

Really? I spotted a potential northerly a week ago and even predicted the reappearance of Darkman. :pac:

I would suggest that this thread title be prefixed 'Late Winter' to go with the more recent 'Early Summer' thread :pac:

darkman2

Hey all! Alot of positivity in here!

More confidence in the forecast for next week now. Good agreement on a much colder midweek. This looks temporary atm so by Friday temperatures may recover somewhat. Increasingly it looks like Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday is the timeframe to watch. There is a real risk now of either a prolonged spell of rain turning to sleet and snow or heavy showers in the East and Southeast in particular which could well be snow showers. This is a bit awkward in terms of specifics. I am confident enough though we may well have the forum lit up like a Christmas tree on Tuesday night the way the trend is:)


Latest UKMO pressure and 850hpa temp chart and precipitation for Tuesday







:cool:

Musicman2000

Just looking at the the forecast after the six one news, no mention of next week, and 10 degrees over us Tuesday and nothing to wintry on MT'S update this morning are we all looking at the same models:)

darkman2

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Just looking at the the forecast after the six one news, no mention of next week, and 10 degrees over us Tuesday and nothing to wintry on MT'S update this morning are we all looking at the same models:)

Yup. No question things will be going downhill for the sun worshippers on Tuesday very rapidly. They just don't want to officially depress the nation yet;)


And the speed of change is quite something - looking at 7 or 8c currently widely on Tuesday morning falling into low single figures by the afternoon. This is associated with a cold front that has a very sharp thermal gradient on current forecasts and hence the threat of frontal rain turning to snow during the day. Definitely something to track although it's not completely nailed yet.

Deep Easterly

Seems to be a small potential for some heavy showers to develop overland this coming Monday as the fairly slack air mass destabilizes a little during the afternoon but may depend on how much high cloud there is ahead of an approaching front.

PS. I really hope this cold spell does not last too long.

blackius

Joe Bastardi ‏ @BigJoeBastardi By by spring UK and western Europe.. snow coming to alot of places along with well below norm temps

mickger844posts

You can't beat a good Darkman2 thread For genuine weather fans its going to be a very interesting week ahead. Personally i love when a cold front passes through and the temps drop like a stone in a short space of time. Some really fantastic charts for mid week

mike65

May this **** off back oop north pronto.

JJJJNR

its snowing in Rathdrum....!!

Diamond Dust

JJJJNR wrote: »

its snowing in Rathdrum....!!

April 1st

darkman2

Seems boards.ie has contrived to make the charts not viewable for the day (April 1st).


You can view lots of stuff on these sites in any case...I doubt anything barring the earth shifting on it's axis is going to change the forecast drastically at this stage.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html


http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfse_cartes.php


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&VAR=prec

irelandspurs

Think of the poor lambs

Birdnuts

I have a feeling that this April will be a very different one from the last few years;)

eskimocat

Well I suppose we cannot complain that the weather has been boring meh for the past week or so, and it seems to be shaping up for some interesting charts ahead. Wonder what the possibility of sleet or snow will do to the numbers on here???:D Come out, come out where-ever you are Snowbunnies.... Easter is coming...

Redsunset

Well I have to say I'm somewhat excited at a brief flirt with cold, this could produce accumulations of snowin some places, all going to plan of course.

desolate sun

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Can't see those images, red sunset
It says you need a gold Boards account to see them.

After seeing NO snow at all, this winter, I am seriously thinking of booking a holiday to some snowy land (even though I can't afford it, but I need my snow fix so bad). This thread, at least gives me hope.

Sponge Bob

48 hours around Tuesday Wednesday Thursday look like the extent of this blashteen and with the weather recovering towards todays loveliness thereafter.

blackius

To be honest,lets introduce a little reality here.
No one away from the mountain tops will be pegging snow balls from this.
It's just not cold enough.

patneve2

My guess would be: lying snow over 250/300 metres, mixing with possible wet snow below that line.

darkman2

blackius wrote: »

To be honest,lets introduce a little reality here.
No one away from the mountain tops will be pegging snow balls from this.
It's just not cold enough.

UKMO is showing a sharp thermal gradient. For example temperatures in your area by 2pm Tuesday maxing at around 5c (cold enough for sleet) - further North including Dublin and the North Irish sea maxima at that time is 3c (that's the middle of the day) with the fronts still straddling the centre of the country. Like any potential frontal snow it's a marginal call. I do think at the very least some light to moderate snow should be expected later Tuesday and not only on high ground. Also important is where the cold and warm fronts pivot. The further west the better from a snow point of view. Currently this looks to happen over England and Wales but it affects the East for a time aswell. Nothing is certain regarding this but it's something watch.

ZX7R

Intrestring to note that we in ireland get more white easters than white x-mas,hope the warm weather back soon was getting use to having bbq for dinner;)
i have not been able to read any charts for the last two week as my wife had twins our fist borne:D and have been very busy,does any one know if the asourse high is going to hang around or rebuild or has it retreated ?

snaps

I just think that if we get percip at night we have a strong possibly of lying snow, Daytime with this lovely strong sun is more of a challenge for snow??

darkman2

snaps wrote: »

I just think that if we get percip at night we have a strong possibly of lying snow, Daytime with this lovely strong sun is more of a challenge for snow??

Absolutely. The chances of snow to low levels increases significantly at this time of year during night time. In this case most of the precipitation may have cleared by night fall but showers or light - moderate sleet or snow may effect exposed coasts - specifically the East. Further inland through Tuesday evening it would not surprise me at all to see back edge snow. The temperature will be dropping like a stone through Tuesday from the North. It's set up almost perfectly IMO. I know others are a bit more sceptical. Unsurprising given the near misses of the Winter.

sunbabe08

i'm gonna ask, what are the chances like for cork city getting some of this snow?

because if you say no chance than at least i won't be looking around the window every 2 minutes wondering is there snow coming

darkman2

sunbabe08 wrote: »

i'm gonna ask, what are the chances like for cork city getting some of this snow?

because if you say no chance than at least i won't be looking around the window every 2 minutes wondering is there snow coming

Maybe it will, maybe it won't.

No really bit early yet to be that specific:)

Musicman2000

Not even a mention of a wintry shower from Gerry:) after the news

Pangea

darkman2 wrote: »

Absolutely. The chances of snow to low levels increases significantly at this time of year during night time. .

:eek: Could you explain that one please?

ZX7R wrote: »

Intrestring to note that we in ireland get more white easters than white x-mas

Sorry but I seriously doubt that.
In my lifetime I have had 4 white christamses that I can remember and 0 white Easters.
Also worth nothing that We have had 23C in places this week and I don't think that that temperature could ever happen at Christmas time therefore in my eye Snow is more likely at Christmas.

compsys

Pangea wrote: »

:eek: Could you explain that one please?




Sorry but I seriously doubt that.
In my lifetime I have had 4 white christamses that I can remember and 0 white Easters.
Also worth nothing that We have had 23C in places this week and I don't think that that temperature could ever happen at Christmas time therefore in my eye Snow is more likely at Christmas.

I think you're wrong.

I've heard many people say that it's more likely to snow at Easter than Xmas. Remember, Easter can often fall in late March, when it most certainly can still snow in Ireland. Also, apart from the last three years, I can't remember the last time it snowed in December. In Ireland, December is still usually far too early for snow.

Also, you can't simply reverse the seasons the way you're implying. Yes, it can get cold and snow at Easter. But no one's saying that that means it can also get up to 23c in December (just because it can the odd time at Easter).

srocliffe

Pangea wrote: »

:eek: Could you explain that one please?




Sorry but I seriously doubt that.
In my lifetime I have had 4 white christamses that I can remember and 0 white Easters.
Also worth nothing that We have had 23C in places this week and I don't think that that temperature could ever happen at Christmas time therefore in my eye Snow is more likely at Christmas.

I can't speak for Donegal, where perhaps you get more snow at Christmas time, but from memory, Christmas day 2010, was for Dublin the first White Christmas since the 1970s as far as I can remember (by White Christmas I'm talking about lying snow on Christmas day). In the same timeframe I can remember at least 3 occasions and probably more where it snowed in late March or April (although I can't say for certain if the snow coincided with Easter weekend), so I honestly don't think it is a wild statement to make, as snow in March and April is actually more common in Dublin than snow in December, which out side of 2010 is actually quite rare in the last 30 years.

Pangea

compsys wrote: »

I think you're wrong.

I've heard many people say that it's more likely to snow at Easter than Xmas. Remember, Easter can often fall in late March, when it most certainly can still snow in Ireland. Also, apart form the last three years, I can't remember the last time it snowed in December. In Ireland, December is still usually far too early for snow.

Also, you can't simply reverse the seasons the way you're implying. Yes, it can get cold and snow at Easter. But no one's saying that that means it can also get up to 23c in December (just because it can at Easter).

I've heard many people say it too here, what I am saying is that I have never ever seen a white Easter but seen snow in December plenty of times. go figure.
I have seen snow plenty of times in February and March yes and the odd time in April.

When was the last white easter?? and by white do you mean a small coat that melts when the sun comes up at 8 am? The white Christmases I have experienced had snow lying on the ground for days and days.

Since Easter is a movable date it makes the chances of a white easter less measurable to Christmas and less likely in my opinion and experience. :cool:
I would agree that snow in General is more likely in February and even March than December but to say a white Easter is more likely than a white Christmas is a bit of a stretch.

I mentioned the 23c to compare how strong the sun can get this time of year, snow has less chance of sticking around with the strong sun and longer days.

patneve2

Injecting a bit of science into the thread, it has to be said that the air is less humid February-April, dew-points lower and therefore snow is more likely to fall. However, as already mentioned, a stronger sun means that any snow is less likely to stick around for a prolonged period of time. Also, it is common for snow-flakes to fall with temps well above zero in March/April (up to 4/5 C), even though accumulations are ruled out with these temps.

Regarding the Christmas/Easter debate, who cares? We all agree on the fact that it is more common to see snow falling in Feb-Start April than before.

I am confident lower lying locations will see a flake or two in the following days. I am glad that the forecast cold will not last that long as nature is ahead of schedule. More than anything, we need rain (here in the East especially).

Deep Easterly

Just going by stats from Dublin Airport since 1973, Pangea is right in that it is more likely to snow on Christmas Day than Easter Sunday, but it is more likely to snow in and around the Easter period than the Christmas one oddly enough. Since 1973, it snowed on 7 Christmas Days at the Airport, and on 3 Easter Sundays.

Just to add, my birthday sometimes falls on Easter and from personal observation, the weather is usually crap around that time :rolleyes:


http://www.ogimet.com/gsodc.phtml.en
http://www.tutiempo.net/clima/Dublin_Airport/1973/39690.htm
http://www.gmarts.org/index.php?go=413

Iancar29

....







GAME ONNN!

blackius

Iancar29 wrote: »

....







[SIZE="5"]GAME ONNN! [/SIZE]

I don't know why they bother with any colour other than the shades of pink because areas in red and yellow in reality never receive snow from those charts.
So it's game on alright ...if you're booked into a b&b in glencoe I suppose

darkman2

ECM 12z 6pm Tuesday








Tuesday night, interesting for the East and Southeast, no doubt outbreaks of light or moderate snow a real possibility on current forecast

9pm






6am Wednesday - a few (likely) snow showers there drifting onshore






Tuesday night is going to be a very cold night btw. Temperatures well below freezing - down as low as -5, even -6c in one or two spots inland so it could well be an icy Wednesday morning.