Summer 2018 - General Discussion

Latest CFSv2 update for Summer 2018 is showing a very easterly dominated season. Easterlies in Summer of course lead to very warm to hot weather. June looks to be very settled and warm. July looks to be settled and relatively warm, perhaps not hot due to the high pressure centre being in the centre of the Atlantic (though it does ridge to Ireland). August is interesting. It shows quite a Scandi High here on the model pulling up some very warm air from Europe. There are no heights over Ireland suggesting there is some sort of trough here which combined with the warm air can only mean one thing, thunderstorms! August could be quite a thundery month if the CFSv2 is right, this is not the first time an August of such has been suggested (see my analogues with at least 5 of the elements). If the CFSv2 is correct, we'll be in for a very warm Summer.

On a somewhat unrelated note to this tweet, 1934.... one of the years that has been cropping up the most in my analogues this year for Summer 2018. July 1934 was a hot month. May 1934 was also warm and sunny with very dry conditions to the south. June 1934 was dry and warm as was September 1934. 1934 was in the cusp of solar minimum. The end of February 1934 brought a cold northerly into March and the lowest temperature of the year fell in March. April was a dull and unsettled month then.

Seeing a trend here?

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1001215352901120001

Artane2002 wrote: »

Getting a bit ahead of myself but by any chance do you know how Winter 1934-35 went?

The mildest December of the century though still way below that of December 2015's phenomenal warmth. A very dry January but mostly mild with some snow towards the end of the month. Ireland had 45% of its average January rainfall according to the UK Met Office, doesn't say Northern in the name. February was a very mild month too and mainly wet. You definitely don't want Winter 2018-19 to go the 1934-35 way. :P

I can see two different possible solutions for Summer and I will be discussing this either tomorrow morning (depending on my mood) or tomorrow evening in my forecast for the season. Most likely tomorrow evening after my exam. Both solutions provide a good outlook for June whilst there's a division on July and August.

Artane2002 wrote: »

That sounds like a disaster of a winter! Like a combination of 2015-16 and 2016-17.

I can't wait to see your thoughts on the summer. I'd take a poor summer if I'm guaranteed an excellent winter to be honest.

It was a disaster of a Winter. If it would take place in modern times, enthusiasts would be crying and ripping their hairs out in anger. See December 1934's reanalysis for example. Stubborn northern blocking but the deep trough is just north enough to give us a very mild and wet month. We were extremely unlucky. I get some Winter 2013-14 vibes from this chart.



I'd rather both a hot Summer and a cold Winter. Summer 1995 - the classic that I just posted about today in the statistics thread - was followed by the coldest Winter of the 90s (not really saying much in the grand scheme of things considering the 90s) including a cold December and a cold, wet and snowy February with much of January being very mild and dull though it ended on a very cold easterly. The end of December 1995 brought temperatures as low as -27.2c in Scotland and I think -11c in Ireland.

Summer 1934 was a weird Summer with a lot of northern blocking (just like December 1934, probably courtesy of low solar activity) but July just happened to be a warm month.

Ok well, I'm up earlier than intended so I guess I better get on with the forecast.

I don't think it's possible to compromise how Summer 2018 is going to pan out this year because there's such a divergence in the models, analogues and the current pattern. Therefore, I have no choice but to give two possible solutions for the Summer 2018.

The majority of the analogues have been pointing towards a poor Summer and for some, a very bad Summer indeed. It was looking very dire for the Summer outlook from multiple standpoints. The models at first weren't showing a particularly great Summer either. Basically, it was looking like there'd be a lot of northern blocking forcing the jet stream southwards to giving us depression after depression and very cool conditions. However, things started getting interesting first when we combined all the elements together to find the most common years within the analogues. These years were 1876, 1911, 1934, 1947, 1959, 1963, 1969, 1975, 1986, 1989, 1996, 2001, 2008 and 2013. What was intriguing about this particular analogue is that many of those Summers within it were great or good whether it was 1911's extended Summer from May to October, 1934's warm July, 1947's hot August, 1959's extended Summer from February to October with very sunny conditions, 1975's very warm and dry conditions throughout, 1989's very warm May and hot July or 2013's hot July. There were some very poor ones in there though like 1963 and 1986 which were both cool and wet. Nevertheless, most of them were good Summers which was more motivating to see for this Summer. From these analogues, June was looking like a very southeasterly month, July anticyclonic and August very thundery. That would make for quite an interesting Summer if it came off. The individual analogues showed a rather indifferent June with a chance of some warm, dry weather but a deterioration into July and August.

Whilst there still is some models that are going for an unsettled Summer and some cool but mostly warm, others have gone onto showing a very good Summer such as the CFSv2 (though underwhelming temperature anomalies) and the Beijing Climate Centre. They show a similar Summer to what my analogues show actually with June being settled and very southeasterly, July being anticyclonic and August very thundery; interesting how similar they are.

In terms of the current pattern, we have been in a constant wave of high pressure since February to the east drawing in these persistent easterly winds. Unlike in Winter, easterly winds can bring some very hot or warm conditions. Summer 1995 and 1983, two classics you tend to love, were very easterly sourced. Easterlies can also bring some quite torrential thunderstorms once a trough comes up from the Bay of Biscay, the Atlantic or France. Some severe thunderstorms have certainly been recorded in easterlies. Here we are at the end of May with continuous easterlies still going and with the weaker zonal flow, this is not likely to change. However, there is the infamous saying: "Return of the westerlies", that from the second half of June onwards the westerlies tend to come back and that's our Summer gone, a complete write off from that point on. However, this year seems to be different in every way from the unusually cold zonal westerlies in January to the beast from the east to Storm Emma to this late May warm spell etc. You'd have to go back to 2003 to find such a constant area of high pressure over Scandinavia I think which of course was a warm Summer and August in particular was hot. The problem with analogues this year is that I think they don't take this current unusual pattern into account thus why I'm not considering what the majority of them show regardless of the huge agreement among many of them.

The first solution is for a front loaded Summer. What this means is that we'll have our warm and dry weather in May and June but the weather will deteriorate through July and into August. But, there is a chance that the weather may improve in August at some point, not sure when, and a warm spell is likely to occur. If it does turn out to be a front loaded Summer, I don't think it'll be a huge disaster although after the May and June, it would feel pretty awful. July could be quite a cool month but maybe not very wet whilst August be fairly cool and very wet.

The second solution is for June to be settled and warm, July to be anticyclonic all around and potentially hot whilst August to be thundery but warm. This is the more popular or favoured solution at the moment in the way the models have gone as well as my analogues.

I'm not going to go all out and say scorcher Summer on the way but 2018 has the potential now with this Scandi High to be one of our better Summers of the 21st century so far. Now, it could go all down the tubes like Summer 2017 did (which is likely courtesy of the change from El Nino to La Nina very rapidly) so don't get too excited. This is only potential for now. As with all long range forecasting, it's not to be relied upon. Now go and enjoy the current weather, it's not too often we get prolonged fine periods like this.

BBC monthly outlook.

- Continued similar conditions to the end of May into the start of June with thunderstorms and warm weather.
- Less settled and breezier mid-month period.
- Summer returns for the end afterwards

Seems to be in line with other forecasts. Reminds me of 1976 in some ways.

https://www.bbc.com/weather/outlook?ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_mchannel=social&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_source=twitter

June 2007 started off with a similar spell of weather to what is expected to take place for June 2018 bar some very wet conditions on the 2nd/3rd that year. Let's hope Summer 2018 doesn't happen like Summer 2007! Fortunately, at this stage, 99.9% unlikely of that.



The only month with a CET of at least 18.0c this decade, the 2010s, has been July 2013 so you'd think they're due one. The 2000s had two such months, August 2003 and July 2006. The 1990s had five such months, August 1990, July 1994, July 1995, August 1995 and August 1997. The 1980s had two such months, July 1983 and July 1989. The 1970s had two such months, August 1975 and July 1976. The 1960s had no such months. We have seen the least amount of months with a CET of at least 18.0c since the 60s as a result.

day 10 in a row of 19c or more in Sligo
yesterday....19.0c ...phew...today already 19c

Clouds dissipating over the Irish Sea.

Morning Mist and Haze burning off and Sun and Blue skies coming out to play.

It's the COSTA DEL BRAY Bitches!!!

Not only did May 2018 have a similar pattern to May 1989, see my post below, it was the sunniest on record in the UK beating 1989 by a few hours. 1989 continues to be a key year in the long range outlook for Summer 2018 which is good because again, Summer 1989 was warm, dry and sunny with a very warm July in particular.

Not to mention, May 2018 had a record breaking positive NAO for May.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=107044149&postcount=95

The Scandi High continues to be of a major influence to the weather but is likely to weaken as the westerlies temporarily take over later next week. We shall see if the high will reassert itself with the Azores High to form one big area of high pressure again and give us another warm spell.

Xenji wrote: »

22.8C in Castlebar and lovely blue skies, not a hint of rain.

Its absolutely lovely this afternoon. Small breeze in it to from the west making it far less humid.

Suddenly got freezing in Sligo

Went from 20c to 14c but going back up again

Roscommon meanwhile is 24c

A few big raindrops before the "freeze"

Mars Bar wrote: »

It started off chilly in tuam yesterday morning and afternoon but then it turned into an a scorcher!

Min of 14.6c in town early yesterday?




The thing I have noticed about these high temps is that they are not just brief afternoon 'spikes' as you would expect at this time of year, but are temps that waver for hours upon hours upon end.

Anyway, a nice 'jungle shower' just passed through now but gave nothing in terms of relief.

Cloudy overcast drizzly but relatively warm in east Galway
Main rain went just north of us