Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all! We have been experiencing an issue on site where threads have been missing the latest postings. The platform host Vanilla are working on this issue. A workaround that has been used by some is to navigate back from 1 to 10+ pages to re-sync the thread and this will then show the latest posts. Thanks, Mike.
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Cold Snap, T0-180Hours Only

1…89111314…21

Comments

  • #502
    oterra
    Registered Users Posts: 230 ✭✭oterra


    Looks like a slower progression up to 102hrs on 06z GFS, but still on track


  • #503
    Nabber
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    blackius wrote: »
    @nabber that ecm though stops the easterly by saturday which is why it's disappointing.
    However output at 144 cannot be trusted yet.
    .
    I'm ignorant to anything past 96hrs.... This time the ignorance is bliss

    I don't really bother looking past 96hrs. The models diverge too much and the GFS has some crazy predictions on how this could turn out. I'm not sure a trend can bee seen past 96hr at the moment anyways.

    I'm going to stick with 72+ and venture up to 96+ every now and then.
    There is plenty of eye candy at 72hrs :)


  • #504
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,162 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    06z GFS out now. Looking good to very good (well for the east coast anyway)! :) An Atlantic front tries to push through towards the end of the run but is pushed back by the cold air with snow on it's leading edge. Colder air for the east coast than in previous run.


  • #505
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    I'm disappointed by the models all round this morning tbh. A bad trend of the cold not getting as far west on the GFS, and then the ECM.

    Real cold arriving later and departing earlier on every run now too.. :(


  • #506
    To Alcohol
    Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭To Alcohol


    Too many if buts and maybes for my liking. The gulf is full steam ahead and will win the day sooner rather than later. Unfortunately I'd be shocked if we got anything other than a few cool days from this.


  • #507
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    To Alcohol wrote: »
    Too many if buts and maybes for my liking. The gulf is full steam ahead and will win the day sooner rather than later. Unfortunately I'd be shocked if we got anything other than a few cool days from this.

    Well the Atlantic will always win ultimately! Hopefully we'll get some action from the east before it does..too early yet to be looking to the weekend given the big changes in just 48 hours.


  • #508
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    To Alcohol wrote: »
    Too many if buts and maybes for my liking. The gulf is full steam ahead and will win the day sooner rather than later. Unfortunately I'd be shocked if we got anything other than a few cool days from this.

    I think you mean Jet stream here and of course the Atlantic will come back however we simply cannot say for sure as it really is very tricky to nail down,even the pros have been getting it rough lately by describing 2 possible outcomes in their further outlooks based on the models.

    You really need to beef up your post when posting in Model Discussion Thread other wise it is just for the chat thread.


  • #509
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Models not as good this morning, but good overall.

    The 6z GFS is a snowmageddon type run.

    It is beginning to look like we aren't going to get those ultra -15c 850hpas but we still look good to get down to -8->-12c

    At the moment the easterly flow never really makes it clean through, this is due to a shortwave that gets ejected from Iceland around T72, that nudges the block south.

    Overall though you'd take the 6z run and its metre of snow.

    Also the cold looks to come in MORE quickly. With temperatures on Tuesday just 3-4c for most, upto 8c on the west coast.

    Still a wide wide array of solutions possible at T168hrs


  • #510
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    My old friend the CFS shows a nicer cold as below !

    cfsnh-2-156_dhs6.png


  • Advertisement
  • #511
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Models not as good this morning, but good overall.

    The 6z GFS is a snowmageddon type run.

    It is beginning to look like we aren't going to get those ultra -15c 850hpas but we still look good to get down to -8->-12c

    At the moment the easterly flow never really makes it clean through, this is due to a shortwave that gets ejected from Iceland around T72, that nudges the block south.

    Overall though you'd take the 6z run and its metre of snow.

    Also the cold looks to come in MORE quickly. With temperatures on Tuesday just 3-4c for most, upto 8c on the west coast.

    Still a wide wide array of solutions possible at T168hrs

    I would still take uppers of -8 to -12 with plenty of the white stuff:)


  • #512
    yorlum11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 342 ✭✭yorlum11


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    My old friend the CFS shows a nicer cold as below !

    cfsnh-2-156_dhs6.png[/Q

    I would take that :)


  • #513
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Once again the GFS op run was a big outlier. Don't be surprised if the coming runs drastically drop cold solutions for much milder ones.

    190367.png


  • #514
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    The Country Tracks weather on the BBC notes very cold air from this Wednesday onwards.

    However no major snow for Ireland or Britain, just frost and the presenter alluded to mild Atlantic muck winning out by next weekend though still some uncertainty around that :(

    D


  • #515
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    Once again the GFS op run was a big outlier. Don't be surprised if the coming runs drastically drop cold solutions for much milder ones.

    190367.png

    Agree 100% - I think we will be looking at major downgrades later today/tomorrow. Not what we want to hear but reality does bite!:D

    D


  • #516
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    derekon wrote: »
    The Country Tracks weather on the BBC notes very cold air from this Wednesday onwards.

    However no major snow for Ireland or Britain, just frost and the presenter alluded to mild Atlantic muck winning out by next weekend though still some uncertainty around that :(

    D

    Get the cold first, and worry about snow later.


  • Advertisement
  • #517
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    Is the operational run (I assume this is the one most widely 'published'?) done in any different way to the other runs? As in is one run chosen at random to represent the full run for that time or do they put more 'work' into the operational?


  • #518
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Trotter wrote: »
    Is the operational run (I assume this is the one most widely 'published'?) done in any different way to the other runs? As in is one run chosen at random to represent the full run for that time or do they put more 'work' into the operational?

    The operational run is at much a higher resolution. It could be the case that mesoscale features which only the op run can pick up and model properly have huge differences in this case. Such as the shortwave coming out of Iceland.

    Then again the ECM is at an even higher res and that said no to the beast this morning.


  • #519
    doccy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 366 ✭✭doccy


    derekon wrote: »
    Agree 100% - I think we will be looking at major downgrades later today/tomorrow. Not what we want to hear but reality does bite!:D

    D

    I agree, but I fully expect an upgrade 12 hours later, followed by another downgrade, and so on :)


  • #520
    K_1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 326 ✭✭K_1


    GFS 6Z has a snow fest non stop for 96 hours from 120hrs!

    e.g:

    gfs-2012012906-2-192_qrl3.png


  • #521
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    K_1 wrote: »
    GFS 6Z has a snow fest non stop for 96 hours from 120hrs!

    e.g:

    gfs-2012012906-2-192_qrl3.png

    Shhhh! You'll ruin it! :p


  • Advertisement
  • #522
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    The 00z's overall are good. The UKMO and ECM need a bit of tweaking to get the really cold air a bit further west. Maybe it is a better possibility we will be within the zone of frontal snow. Which would be good for those who want snow. But it could go either way. Hopefully the 12z's offer more solid guidance.


  • #523
    mcriot29
    Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    darkman2 wrote: »
    The 00z's overall are good. The UKMO and ECM need a bit of tweaking to get the really cold air a bit further west. Maybe it is a better possibility we will be within the zone of frontal snow. Which would be good for those who want snow. But it could go either way. Hopefully the 12z's offer more solid guidance.
    Models today show ireland does not get any real cold nao plays well with this idea as it never goes very neg and goes pos , looks like cold air never gets pased wales , will this afternoons models be worse for ireland in terms of cold lets wait and see, feck it anyways


  • #524
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Obviously it could still change, but you have to realise the GFS Ensembles are useless for forecasting.

    You need the high res runs as they can handle things much better, although i do note that the control doesn't look great which is a worry.

    Massive set of 12zs this evening that is for sure.


  • #525
    Kippure
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    The 12z and 18z GFS run will be massive upgrades. There only starting to get a handle on the cold block to the east.

    Fun times ahead.

    :)


  • #526
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    What time do we see the 12Z out? 4ish?


  • #527
    K_1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 326 ✭✭K_1


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Obviously it could still change, but you have to realise the GFS Ensembles are useless for forecasting.

    You need the high res runs as they can handle things much better, although i do note that the control doesn't look great which is a worry.

    Massive set of 12zs this evening that is for sure.

    The GFS ensembles are taken as being very good for forecasting though whenever the Op run is a mild outlier.

    How often do we see posts around here like ''12z very poor but has little ensemble support''?!


  • #528
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Starts at 15:30

    Should be mostly complete for the timeframe we want by 16:30


  • #529
    mcriot29
    Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    Kippure wrote: »
    The 12z and 18z GFS run will be massive upgrades. There only starting to get a handle on the cold block to the east.

    Fun times ahead.

    :)
    Do you think cfs and gfs will turn out correct they show cold air over ireland where rest of the models seem to show no cold past irish sea, id be a lot less worried if that cold mild line was pushed out past are west coast


  • #530
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    12z DWD for Tuesday morning is an upgrade on the 00z run. Tuesday looks increasingly very cold.

    gme-0-42.png?12

    gme-1-54.png?12


    By Wednesday

    gme-0-72.png?12


  • #531
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    No. trust ecm up to 96hrs


  • Advertisement
  • #532
    Kippure
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    mcriot29 wrote: »
    Do you think cfs and gfs will turn out correct they show cold air over ireland where rest of the models seem to show no cold past irish sea, id be a lot less worried if that cold mild line was pushed out past are west coast

    I think the GFS will show more of a stronger easterly componet. The atlantic is dying away slowly. That has been the trend. The cold block is huge. The cold will win out imo.

    I noticed before any cold period the models have some wild swings. The closer we get to a relible time frame, the more accurate it becomes.

    The cfs is something of a wild card. It really does change alot.

    Over the last couple of weeks it has been hard to tell which model is best. Its the GFS one week then the ECM the next. Swings and roundabouts.

    I would just take the models as Guideance up to 72 Hours.

    :)


  • #533
    Kippure
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


    ALL ABOARD....:)


  • #534
    Tusky
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,065 ✭✭✭✭Tusky


    Could someone give me their best guess at a weather forecast for next 3-5 days? Dublin/Ireland


  • #535
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Simon's feelings on the models.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7L3K1IFyjY


  • #536
    doccy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 366 ✭✭doccy


    Tusky wrote: »
    Could someone give me their best guess at a weather forecast for next 3-5 days? Dublin/Ireland

    Check MT's forecast here. It's as realistic as you're going to get.


  • #537
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Looking at +60 the angle of the cold coming in looks better. Heading directly west instead of southwest on the last run

    6z

    gfs-2012012906-1-66_ukm9.png

    12z

    gfs-2012012912-1-60_ofd3.png

    What this means I do not know ! :pac:


  • #538
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    12z GFS rolling out. Again Tuesday night looks like being the first subzero night for most of this upcoming period.

    Rtavn6617.png


  • #539
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Upgraded cold at +96. TO my eyes this run is a definite upgrade ! Lets see where this takes us

    gfs-2012012912-1-96_hnz1.png


  • #540
    mcriot29
    Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Upgraded cold at +96. TO my eyes this run is a definite upgrade ! Lets see where this takes us

    gfs-2012012912-1-96_hnz1.png
    Lol so will the east get blasted with snow its up and down i know its far put but the models seem to show a greeny high on the way, any one think we may be in for at least 2 weeks of very cold , im still not happy the way east coast is always on edge of the proper cold


  • Advertisement
  • #541
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Haven't been on the computer since Friday night but a quick look at the 0z ECMWF seems to go along with what I was saying all week with the Atlantic keeping the cold air to the east for the most part. Over 20 pages in this thread since then & don't have the time to go through it all right now

    What's the general thinking at the moment then?


  • #542
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The 12z GFS is not good.

    Attack from the Atlantic does not undercut but goes over the top, collapsing things.

    Still potential and will be cold especially in the east but not very good.


  • #543
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    The 12z GFS is not good.

    Attack from the Atlantic does not undercut but goes over the top, collapsing things.

    Still potential and will be cold especially in the east but not very good.

    Ill meet ya back here for the ECM :mad:


  • #544
    MUSEIST
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,258 ✭✭✭MUSEIST


    Shocking GFS, the high sinks into europe deflecting the cold. We end up with southerly mild winds this timenext week. The beginning of a series of nut crunching downgrades me thinks.


    Oh dear


  • #545
    youngblood
    Registered Users Posts: 1,770 ✭✭✭youngblood


    So big downgrade on the way??

    Snow hopes dashed again!


  • #546
    Yahew
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,491 ✭✭✭Yahew


    Its a downgrade in the medium term, (not the short term) but is one run. Lets see what the other models do.


  • Advertisement
  • #547
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    UKMO and GFS op run pretty much in sync at 96hrs so it's a possible outcome the high could sink. Still, a while to go yet. Don't be too flustered about it.


  • #548
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    MUSEIST wrote: »
    Shocking GFS, the high sinks into europe deflecting the cold. We end up with southerly mild winds this timenext week. The beginning of a series of nut crunching downgrades me thinks.


    Oh dear

    And that is why one should not go further than the T+72 timeframe. :)
    Expect major downgrades as we go through the week, Ireland is just too far west for the cold and being marginal on the models is a serious receipe for downgrades........

    D


  • #549
    yorlum11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 342 ✭✭yorlum11


    Its the first blip from the gfs,lets see how the others pan out and indeed the gfs over the next couple of runs.


  • #550
    Fourteen
    Registered Users Posts: 150 ✭✭Fourteen


    No way. I've been reading all these updates, and now it looks like another disappointment?

    How do you people stay sane?


  • #551
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    LOOK AWAY NOW

    :eek::eek: UKM is worse than one could have imagined possible.

    UW144-21.GIF?29-17


  • Advertisement
This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement