[pauldry]

Its nonsense. Winds will shift slightly Northwest at the last minute and it will just be muck. It WILL be bitterly cold though. And Ben Bulben will be nice and white.

Just looked at Sligo weather there and 1 cold day...Monday 3c Sunday 11c at first 4c by evening, Tuesday 6c then 8 to 10c after this. Shouldnt be too bad bar Monday.

[Captain Snow]

Originally Posted by pauldry

Its nonsense. Winds will shift slightly Northwest at the last minute and it will just be muck. It WILL be bitterly cold though. And Ben Bulben will be nice and white.

Temporary NINJA BLIZZARDS in Heavy Showers

[Nqp15hhu]

Originally Posted by pauldry

Its nonsense. Winds will shift slightly Northwest at the last minute and it will just be muck. It WILL be bitterly cold though. And Ben Bulben will be nice and white.

Just looked at Sligo weather there and 1 cold day...Monday 3c Sunday 11c at first 4c by evening, Tuesday 6c then 8 to 10c after this. Shouldnt be too bad bar Monday.

If 515 decametre is nonsense. At what point would you actually classify a cold spell as decent?

[pauldry]

When its 2010 or 2018 like

[External Association]

Snow is more common at Easter than Christmas, regardless of whether Easter falls in March or up to mid April.

April snow. Off the top of my head from memory given my age, 2nd April 1987, first week of April 1992, early April 1994, 9-11 April 1998, 16th April 1999 in Rathfarnham for the am, early April 2008, and in early April 2010 it hung around much of Highland Leinster after the fall of 30/31 March.

Posts like 'snow in April can fcuk right off' show no knowledge of our climate. It has never done that. Eddie Graham's Dublin Weather diary is excellent on convective potential for snow showers in April.

[Nqp15hhu]

Originally Posted by pauldry

When its 2010 or 2018 like

2010 was warmer at the 850mb level

[Chris_5339762]

The GFS usually massively over-estimates snow. Arpege underestimates it. The correct answer I find is usually midway between the two.

[pauldry]

Originally Posted by Nqp15hhu

2010 was warmer at the 850mb level

Ill post my snow pics here so since its guarenteed.

[External Association]

No doubt a lot of posters will give out about not getting snow, getting cold muck etc.

But that's what these locations generally get in December, January or February. If you're coastal/very lowland, and especially furthur south coastal/very lowland, there's no use saying April didn't delivery as the core winter will only deliver for you with perfect synoptics either.

[Nqp15hhu]

Originally Posted by pauldry

Ill post my snow pics here so since its guarenteed.

Don’t believe I said snow was guaranteed. It is highly like that most will see at least a snow shower at some point by Tuesday.

[pauldry]

Ok Ill take a pic of the snow shower so.

Yes snow can happen any time up to June but who wants snow now unless it buries the Easter Eggs and then it will make for a more challenging Easter Egg hunt.

[Nqp15hhu]

Originally Posted by External Association

No doubt a lot of posters will give out about not getting snow, getting cold muck etc.

But that's what these locations generally get in December, January or February. If you're coastal/very lowland, and especially furthur south coastal/very lowland, there's no use saying April didn't delivery as the core winter will only deliver for you with perfect synoptics either.

This cold spell isn’t marginal though. Let’s look at Monday for example:

-10c 850hPa widely over Ulster, -9c elsewhere:


Freezing level 400 metres or less for most of the island during daylight hours, <300 metres in Ulster:



Theta e, widely below 8:


Wet Bulb 0c height is down to the surface across the whole region:

Thickness values of 515 decametre/dam, earlier 514:[IMG]https://i.imgur.com/ttuI6Z4.jpg
[/IMG]

Could you explain how this is in anyway muck or marginal? This is the best Synoptics you could hope for, for April snow, in fact mid winter this would be good too!

Could you please outline what parameters you think are required to remove marginality entirely? Because even in North America this would be seen as cold, so I am struggling to see why some are saying “possible hill snow” or “wintry mix”. To be honest, I those people would probably say wintry mix with -30c 850’s!!!

[pauldry]

Its cold alright. Those areas in the darkest purple would see snow.

Will the charts remain the same or swing it to the East a bit more so we miss most of it?

Its an interesting one alright.

[Oneiric 3]

There isn't even a sub zero minimum forecast for here during this upcoming spell. Just a cold, damp sleety wind with miserable temperatures similar to the other 'cold' outbreaks during the winter. Sea temps are excessively warm relative to average between here and the pole, and this will do nothing but moderate any real cold potential from this northerly. Expect many 'warm sectors' to develop as its boot bears down.

[Nqp15hhu]

Originally Posted by Oneiric 3

There isn't even a sub zero minimum forecast for here during this upcoming spell. Just a cold, damp sleety wind with miserable temperatures similar to the other 'cold' outbreaks during the winter. Sea temps are excessively warm relative to average between here and the pole, and this will do nothing but moderate any real cold potential from this northerly. Expect many 'warm sectors' to develop as its boot bears down.

Don’t you always say that it’ll be a sleety mess. What parameters would satisfy you? -25c 850?