Much colder, wintry showers, some of snow Easter Sunday 2021 onward

Kermit.de.frog

Very cold air coming south on Saturday starting to impact us by Sunday morning.

Snow showers highly likely amid wintry showers and heavy by day. Could be some late season coverings to low levels in places.

Temperatures on Saturday could reach 14 or 15c. Taking a dramatic plunge through Sunday and down to low to mid single figures for the following few days and night time temperatures a few degrees below freezing particularly in the south and east.

Just a touch of inland convective potential this time of year so heavier showers by day.

One to watch.

Reckless Abandonment

Ah boll@x my garden won't like that.. hate April cold.
But thanks for the heads up kermit...

Atlantic Dawn

BBC predicting -6 Sunday Night/Monday Morning for Dublin, how realistic is that?
https://www.bbc.com/weather/2964574

emo72

Shirley some mishtake. I wore shorts today. It's summertime lads and frogs.

KungPao

The gardeners won’t be happy. Just sowed some seeds myself today, a nice frost should ruin any growth.

Miserable rock we live on.

On the plus side, stonking summer to makeup for it?

Kunta Kinte

emo72 wrote: »

Shirley some mishtake. I wore shorts today. It's summertime lads and frogs.

Kermit.de.frog

KungPao wrote: »

Just sowed some seeds myself today

sparrowcar

Excellent, will kill off any midge and wasps that popped their heads up to early.

The One Doctor

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

BBC predicting -6 Sunday Night/Monday Morning for Dublin, how realistic is that?
https://www.bbc.com/weather/2964574

About as realistic as the pubs opening next week.

seamus

Was gonna seed the garden this week, I'll wait till next!

Kids would love a bit of sneachta over Easter.

TheMilkyPirate

There's nothing worse than cold April onwards. That ship has well and truly sailed. Hopefully this isn't that severe and ****s off sharpish.

pauldry

Yeah. Anyways it will be moderated as in wont be as bad as it looks now. They never are. Might be -6c somewhere in Ireland though Sunday night if winds ease as air is 100% coming from Arctic regions

Nqp15hhu

Hmmm would be impressive

Captain Snow

WINTER IS COMING.......:P:P

Some of us are going to get a right Dump of Snow.:D

pauldry

Its nonsense. Winds will shift slightly Northwest at the last minute and it will just be muck. It WILL be bitterly cold though. And Ben Bulben will be nice and white.

Just looked at Sligo weather there and 1 cold day...Monday 3c Sunday 11c at first 4c by evening, Tuesday 6c then 8 to 10c after this. Shouldnt be too bad bar Monday.

Captain Snow

pauldry wrote: »

Its nonsense. Winds will shift slightly Northwest at the last minute and it will just be muck. It WILL be bitterly cold though. And Ben Bulben will be nice and white.

Temporary NINJA BLIZZARDS in Heavy Showers




:D:D

Nqp15hhu

pauldry wrote: »

Its nonsense. Winds will shift slightly Northwest at the last minute and it will just be muck. It WILL be bitterly cold though. And Ben Bulben will be nice and white.

Just looked at Sligo weather there and 1 cold day...Monday 3c Sunday 11c at first 4c by evening, Tuesday 6c then 8 to 10c after this. Shouldnt be too bad bar Monday.

If 515 decametre is nonsense. At what point would you actually classify a cold spell as decent?

pauldry

When its 2010 or 2018 like

External Association

Snow is more common at Easter than Christmas, regardless of whether Easter falls in March or up to mid April.

April snow. Off the top of my head from memory given my age, 2nd April 1987, first week of April 1992, early April 1994, 9-11 April 1998, 16th April 1999 in Rathfarnham for the am, early April 2008, and in early April 2010 it hung around much of Highland Leinster after the fall of 30/31 March.

Posts like 'snow in April can fcuk right off' show no knowledge of our climate. It has never done that. Eddie Graham's Dublin Weather diary is excellent on convective potential for snow showers in April.

Nqp15hhu

pauldry wrote: »

When its 2010 or 2018 like

2010 was warmer at the 850mb level

Chris_5339762

The GFS usually massively over-estimates snow. Arpege underestimates it. The correct answer I find is usually midway between the two.

pauldry

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

2010 was warmer at the 850mb level

Ill post my snow pics here so since its guarenteed.

External Association

No doubt a lot of posters will give out about not getting snow, getting cold muck etc.

But that's what these locations generally get in December, January or February. If you're coastal/very lowland, and especially furthur south coastal/very lowland, there's no use saying April didn't delivery as the core winter will only deliver for you with perfect synoptics either.

Nqp15hhu

pauldry wrote: »

Ill post my snow pics here so since its guarenteed.

Don’t believe I said snow was guaranteed. It is highly like that most will see at least a snow shower at some point by Tuesday.

pauldry

Ok Ill take a pic of the snow shower so.

Yes snow can happen any time up to June but who wants snow now unless it buries the Easter Eggs and then it will make for a more challenging Easter Egg hunt.

Nqp15hhu

External Association wrote: »

No doubt a lot of posters will give out about not getting snow, getting cold muck etc.

But that's what these locations generally get in December, January or February. If you're coastal/very lowland, and especially furthur south coastal/very lowland, there's no use saying April didn't delivery as the core winter will only deliver for you with perfect synoptics either.

This cold spell isn’t marginal though. Let’s look at Monday for example:

-10c 850hPa widely over Ulster, -9c elsewhere:


Freezing level 400 metres or less for most of the island during daylight hours, <300 metres in Ulster:



Theta e, widely below 8:


Wet Bulb 0c height is down to the surface across the whole region:

Thickness values of 515 decametre/dam, earlier 514:

Could you explain how this is in anyway muck or marginal? This is the best Synoptics you could hope for, for April snow, in fact mid winter this would be good too!

Could you please outline what parameters you think are required to remove marginality entirely? Because even in North America this would be seen as cold, so I am struggling to see why some are saying “possible hill snow” or “wintry mix”. To be honest, I those people would probably say wintry mix with -30c 850’s!!!

pauldry

Its cold alright. Those areas in the darkest purple would see snow.

Will the charts remain the same or swing it to the East a bit more so we miss most of it?

Its an interesting one alright.

Oneiric 3

There isn't even a sub zero minimum forecast for here during this upcoming spell. Just a cold, damp sleety wind with miserable temperatures similar to the other 'cold' outbreaks during the winter. Sea temps are excessively warm relative to average between here and the pole, and this will do nothing but moderate any real cold potential from this northerly. Expect many 'warm sectors' to develop as its boot bears down.

Nqp15hhu

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

There isn't even a sub zero minimum forecast for here during this upcoming spell. Just a cold, damp sleety wind with miserable temperatures similar to the other 'cold' outbreaks during the winter. Sea temps are excessively warm relative to average between here and the pole, and this will do nothing but moderate any real cold potential from this northerly. Expect many 'warm sectors' to develop as its boot bears down.

Don’t you always say that it’ll be a sleety mess. What parameters would satisfy you? -25c 850?

Oneiric 3

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Don’t you always say that

With good reason:

Nqp15hhu

So how did many low lying areas manage to see snow on Friday past?

https://streamable.com/btxltz

Gaoth Laidir

I really fail to see the attraction of a few snow showers at this time of the year when all that's going to happen is it will turn to slop on the ground, which is really warming up this week and will continue to do so over the next few days. It would be a showery setup in a strong northerly flow, so repeated periods of 5 minutes of a hail/snow shower followed by around 30 minutes of strong sunshine. Really not worth the effort, apart from an academic point of view.

Little snowy old me

I honestly didn't think I'd be back before November or December as who'd have thought we could see some decent snow showers at Easter?

Hope everyone is well.

I was looking through the bit of a weather diary I keep and the last decent April wintry blast I can recall is 1998. I remember it was brilliant blue skies one minute and then big convective type showers that gave hail and snow at sea level in SW Donegal. Snow settled one of the nights also. Bitter cold in the wind. A real shock to the system for April.

Little snowy old me

Oh not really related to this thread but 1997 brought heavy sleet and hail showers here on the 6th and 7th May!! Some snow fell on the night of the 6th.

External Association

Little snowy old me wrote: »

Oh not really related to this thread but 1997 brought heavy sleet and hail showers here on the 6th and 7th May!! Some snow fell on the night of the 6th.

14 May 1993 here and on the ground all day.

Little snowy old me

External Association wrote: »

14 May 1993 here and on the ground all day.

Actually yes! That was a late blast alright. Now we didn't have snow here at sea level but I vaguely remember that day.... it had apparently the coldest May daytime temperature recorded..... 2 or 3 degrees if I recall correctly

Nqp15hhu

I must be the only gullible one that is expecting a covering overnight.

I can only go on past April events... certainly not out of the question

Nqp15hhu

Just for comparison, here is an example of some Spring months that brought lying snow here. (I don't have a book or record, I am going on my photos).

27th March 2013 brought an overnight covering of snow here:


850's were warmer than forecast

3rd March 2015:


18th March 2018:


The atmospheric conditions were all warmer than is forecast, so I am struggling to see how the forecasted parameters could not deliver a covering of snow??? Especially with frequent snow showers.

I think some are either overly pessimistic or live in regions that usually struggle to get snow.

Kermit.de.frog

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

With good reason:

That makes very little difference away from windward coasts if even.

Beefier shower potential too.

gerrybhoy

Bbq on Friday and Saturday followed by sticking the fire on Sunday and Monday,dontcha love the irish weather

Beechwoodspark

Sitting near celbridge lovely sultry almost Mediterranean evening here

Hard to believe we could have sub zero temps and snow

pauldry

And heres the weather for the next 5 days

Sun Cloud Rain Hail Sleet Snow Wind and Frost

Happy Easter Ireland

Storm 10

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Sitting near celbridge lovely sultry almost Mediterranean evening here

Hard to believe we could have sub zero temps and snow

Lucky you rained all day in the West

Storm 10

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Sitting near celbridge lovely sultry almost Mediterranean evening here

Hard to believe we could have sub zero temps and snow

Lucky you rained all day in the West temp never went above 12 degrees

Nqp15hhu

4c for Belfast on Monday and snow showers, no mention of 7c. BBC Newsline forecast

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2655984

External Association

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I don't see how knowledge of our climate has anything to do with it. It wouldn't matter if snow at this time of year was an annual occurrence, I'd still be of the opinion that it can fúck off.

I understand. But the weather doesn't give two fcuks about your opinion, or mine.

External Association

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I really fail to see the attraction of a few snow showers at this time of the year when all that's going to happen is it will turn to slop on the ground, which is really warming up this week and will continue to do so over the next few days. It would be a showery setup in a strong northerly flow, so repeated periods of 5 minutes of a hail/snow shower followed by around 30 minutes of strong sunshine. Really not worth the effort, apart from an academic point of view.

I suppose people might like to see records broken etc. It's like hitting 18c in January. Could we see low lying snow in daytime April.

I don't mind cold in April as this early in the year warm spells are generally followed by a big dip in temperatures. Then they rise again. As March is many weathers, April is often too.

In July 1998 we maxed out at 11c in Ireland, it was a record low max. Now that annoyed me, it was just so unseasonal.

Oneiric 3

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That makes very little difference away from windward coasts if even.

Beefier shower potential too.

Increased convection at sea also helps transport ocean heat into the upper atmosphere. Showers are literally bubbles of warm air! Still, maybe some good thunderstorm potential for northern coast lines in the flow, with the likes of Donegal Storm and NQP being in line if sharp enough troughs develop in the flow.

Nqp15hhu

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Increased convection at sea also helps transport ocean heat into the upper atmosphere. Showers are literally bubbles of warm air! Still, maybe some good thunderstorm potential for northern coast lines in the flow, with the likes of Donegal Storm and NQP being in line if sharp enough troughs develop in the flow.

When the freezing level is low, convective showers will drag temperatures close to 0c or lower.

The marine affect will be limited in this setup, due to the convective nature of the showers and the associated strong downdrafts. Wereas with light drizzle or showers the downdraft will be minimal enabling more influence from an onshore flow.

I find the marine affect is only an issue with polar maritime air masses coming from the west with <-7c 850hPa. Living on a northern coastal (well 10 miles from the coast) I don’t face marginality in northerlies, at all.

Anyway, there will be no issues with marginality here:



And look at the cold front gradient!!! From 500 metres freezing level to 2500 metres freezing level over a few miles!!

Nqp15hhu

External Association wrote: »

I suppose people might like to see records broken etc. It's like hitting 18c in January. Could we see low lying snow in daytime April.

I don't mind cold in April as this early in the year warm spells are generally followed by a big dip in temperatures. Then they rise again. As March is many weathers, April is often too.

In July 1998 we maxed out at 11c in Ireland, it was a record low max. Now that annoyed me, it was just so unseasonal.

Snow started to lie here at points last Friday, so it’s definitely possible we could see laying snow on Monday as the airmass will be colder. We just need a constant flow of showers.

Maybe above 300 metres the snow would stay all day. As that’ll be the freezing level.

Tyrone212

I checked the records for April.

Lowest, -8.5 Killylane Antrim, 10th April 1998. I remember that time, was snowing around the GFA.

Lowest in Republic, -7.7 Markee Sligo, 15th April 1892.

For lowest maximum I can't find any such details on Met Eireann. For the North I can find 3 joint records but they appear to be above 300m.

Black Mountain and Divis Mountain recorded a high 0.0c on the 15th of April 1966. Divis Mountain once again recorded a high of 0.0c the following day.

The coldest maximum in the UK for April is -1.1c on the 1st of April 1917. The date of the big snow storm in Ireland if I remember correctly. I imagine some areas stayed sub zero that day here, lack of stations is still a problem over 100 years later.