[Gonzo]

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Spring 2021.

If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.

Thanks

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Winter 2020/2021 has come to a very mild end with spring like conditions for the past few weeks. We are currently in a very mild and dry pattern, but will it last and deliver a Spring as mild and dry as 2020?

Current models suggest that we may get another week of dry and fairly mild weather, however there are signs that things may cool down to slightly below average temperatures from the second week of March. Nothing too cold is modeled so we are unlikely to get anything like March 2018 or March 2013.

There are signs of the Atlantic making a comeback with possibly cold zonality from the 8th of March.



This could lead to bands of rain or showers which may turn wintry at times, particularly over high ground in the north and west.





Several areas of low pressure may cross the country or close to us during the middle part of March with some fairly strong winds and staying fairly cool.



We finish up with heights trying to rise again from the south introducing much milder conditions from the south.

[Meteorite58]

Atlantic kicking off again next week it would seem very likely at this stage. Some windy days, getting cooler, frontal bands, wintry showers on higher ground, colder sourced W and NW'lys, the latter half of next week looks fairly cold, maybe a bit milder over the following weekend if the winds turn more Southerly .

Very fast Jet from around Tuesday, we will see how the LP's progress and if they become more or less of a threat.

Rainfall totals would be mainly from later Sunday to Saturday.

[Meteorite58]

igCorcaigh was wondering over in the Spring thread if there will be a thread created for wind and rain for Tues / Weds. Well the models are very closely grouped together in showing some very windy and wet weather later Weds in to Thurs. Still just about over the +120 hrs so a fair bit away yet but the UKMO and ECM have increased their wind speeds for this. A good bit to go yet but certainly worth keeping an eye on it.

Quite cold behind it, wintry showers with a few white mountain tops especially the NE and W.

[typhoony]

GFS at 138 and ECM at 144 are very similar, tentative signs of proper Springlike weather

[typhoony]

at least the springlike weather will materialise as was suggested by the models and lasting all of next week, after that a brief cool down before we get the injection of the azores high again the following week, at least that is what GFS is suggesting. It's been a few years since we've had a proper mild spring, there has been years where high temperatures have been recorded for a few days then a sharp drop. I have a hunch this year will see a more consistent period of mild settled weather up until the end of April.

[Billcarson]

Originally Posted by typhoony

at least the springlike weather will materialise as was suggested by the models and lasting all of next week, after that a brief cool down before we get the injection of the azores high again the following week, at least that is what GFS is suggesting. It's been a few years since we've had a proper mild spring, there has been years where high temperatures have been recorded for a few days then a sharp drop. I have a hunch this year will see a more consistent period of mild settled weather up until the end of April.

Last spring was a mild spring. Last spring was our summer.

[US2]

Originally Posted by Billcarson

Last spring was a mild spring. Last spring was our summer.

And Spring 2019 was milder again i think ?

[cute geoge]

Last spring was not mild .It was bright ,dry no rain at all ,sunny but cold all the way in to June when the weather changed

[Gonzo]

Indeed Spring 2020 was our summer. Much of it was cool, there were some fairly sharp northerly plunges and cool easterlies however the cold uppers were softened by blue skies and lots of sunshine. There were some milder sections which were also full of sunshine and blue skies. The very end of the Spring dry spell end of May to 2nd of June was the warmest few days of the year with temperatures in the low 20s. The rest of the summer was teens with the exception of one or two days were above 20C was reached.

[Gonzo]

And as for the early part of this Spring, it looks like we are going to stay on the mild side for the next week but there is potential for some northerlies or easterly's later. Bit late in the season at this stage,why couldn't we get this in February when the relentless mild took over.







Looks like plenty of relatively dry weather over the next two weeks which is a big plus, however it may be on the cool side at times and frost at night is a possibility.

[Meteorite58]

Yeah a lot less rain showing up in the charts next week, looks good for the outside jobs again, maybe a few frosty nights in places, I see some 15C and 16C showing up around next Tues and Weds, looking a bit cooler after that but maybe up about 12 or 13C especially further South.

[Meteorite58]

Models in good agreement that it is looking fairly settled and mostly dry from +120 hrs, slack winds in general and some cooler days but looks like some decent enough temperatures a few days also. Some cool frosty nights in places in there too it would seem with a touch of fog at times. Looks like a decent spell coming up to get Spring well and truly established.

GFS goes on to see the HP eroded from the NW around +240 hrs, ECM looks to show the Atlantic gearing up again around then also but that it is a long way off.

[typhoony]

Originally Posted by Meteorite58

Models in good agreement that it is looking fairly settled and mostly dry from +120 hrs, slack winds in general and some cooler days but looks like some decent enough temperatures a few days also. Some cool frosty nights in places in there too it would seem with a touch of fog at times. Looks like a decent spell coming up to get Spring well and truly established.

GFS goes on to see the HP eroded from the NW around +240 hrs, ECM looks to show the Atlantic gearing up again around then also but that it is a long way off.

even the cool down at the end of this week is not likely to happen, nice settled weather at times a bit misty but you'd expect as the sun gets higher in the sky it will burn off the clouds during the afternoons, 14/15c looks possible in the SW. After 10 days both ECM and GFS hint at a return of cooler Polar Maritime air but nothing too severe

[Meteorite58]

Originally Posted by typhoony

even the cool down at the end of this week is not likely to happen, nice settled weather at times a bit misty but you'd expect as the sun gets higher in the sky it will burn off the clouds during the afternoons, 14/15c looks possible in the SW. After 10 days both ECM and GFS hint at a return of cooler Polar Maritime air but nothing too severe

Yeah even the 12Z is looking milder again now at the end of the run

Very little rainfall showing up on the present charts

GFS also doing a good job maintaining the Hp blocking out the Atlantic, similar Temps.

[typhoony]

suprised nobody has mentioned the Polar Maritime train headind our way at the end of the month