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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 28-02-2021 1:53pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,184 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Spring 2021.

    If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.

    Thanks



    Winter 2020/2021 has come to a very mild end with spring like conditions for the past few weeks. We are currently in a very mild and dry pattern, but will it last and deliver a Spring as mild and dry as 2020?

    Current models suggest that we may get another week of dry and fairly mild weather, however there are signs that things may cool down to slightly below average temperatures from the second week of March. Nothing too cold is modeled so we are unlikely to get anything like March 2018 or March 2013.

    There are signs of the Atlantic making a comeback with possibly cold zonality from the 8th of March.

    GFSOPEU06_204_1.png

    This could lead to bands of rain or showers which may turn wintry at times, particularly over high ground in the north and west.

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    Several areas of low pressure may cross the country or close to us during the middle part of March with some fairly strong winds and staying fairly cool.

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    We finish up with heights trying to rise again from the south introducing much milder conditions from the south.

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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Atlantic kicking off again next week it would seem very likely at this stage. Some windy days, getting cooler, frontal bands, wintry showers on higher ground, colder sourced W and NW'lys, the latter half of next week looks fairly cold, maybe a bit milder over the following weekend if the winds turn more Southerly .

    Very fast Jet from around Tuesday, we will see how the LP's progress and if they become more or less of a threat.

    Rainfall totals would be mainly from later Sunday to Saturday.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    igCorcaigh was wondering over in the Spring thread if there will be a thread created for wind and rain for Tues / Weds. Well the models are very closely grouped together in showing some very windy and wet weather later Weds in to Thurs. Still just about over the +120 hrs so a fair bit away yet but the UKMO and ECM have increased their wind speeds for this. A good bit to go yet but certainly worth keeping an eye on it.

    Quite cold behind it, wintry showers with a few white mountain tops especially the NE and W.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭ typhoony


    GFS at 138 and ECM at 144 are very similar, tentative signs of proper Springlike weather


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭ typhoony


    at least the springlike weather will materialise as was suggested by the models and lasting all of next week, after that a brief cool down before we get the injection of the azores high again the following week, at least that is what GFS is suggesting. It's been a few years since we've had a proper mild spring, there has been years where high temperatures have been recorded for a few days then a sharp drop. I have a hunch this year will see a more consistent period of mild settled weather up until the end of April.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,089 ✭✭✭ Billcarson


    typhoony wrote: »
    at least the springlike weather will materialise as was suggested by the models and lasting all of next week, after that a brief cool down before we get the injection of the azores high again the following week, at least that is what GFS is suggesting. It's been a few years since we've had a proper mild spring, there has been years where high temperatures have been recorded for a few days then a sharp drop. I have a hunch this year will see a more consistent period of mild settled weather up until the end of April.

    Last spring was a mild spring. Last spring was our summer.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭ US2


    Billcarson wrote: »
    Last spring was a mild spring. Last spring was our summer.

    And Spring 2019 was milder again i think ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,112 ✭✭✭ cute geoge


    Last spring was not mild .It was bright ,dry no rain at all ,sunny but cold all the way in to June when the weather changed


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,184 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Indeed Spring 2020 was our summer. Much of it was cool, there were some fairly sharp northerly plunges and cool easterlies however the cold uppers were softened by blue skies and lots of sunshine. There were some milder sections which were also full of sunshine and blue skies. The very end of the Spring dry spell end of May to 2nd of June was the warmest few days of the year with temperatures in the low 20s. The rest of the summer was teens with the exception of one or two days were above 20C was reached.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,184 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    And as for the early part of this Spring, it looks like we are going to stay on the mild side for the next week but there is potential for some northerlies or easterly's later. Bit late in the season at this stage,why couldn't we get this in February when the relentless mild took over.

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    Looks like plenty of relatively dry weather over the next two weeks which is a big plus, however it may be on the cool side at times and frost at night is a possibility.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yeah a lot less rain showing up in the charts next week, looks good for the outside jobs again, maybe a few frosty nights in places, I see some 15C and 16C showing up around next Tues and Weds, looking a bit cooler after that but maybe up about 12 or 13C especially further South.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Models in good agreement that it is looking fairly settled and mostly dry from +120 hrs, slack winds in general and some cooler days but looks like some decent enough temperatures a few days also. Some cool frosty nights in places in there too it would seem with a touch of fog at times. Looks like a decent spell coming up to get Spring well and truly established.

    GFS goes on to see the HP eroded from the NW around +240 hrs, ECM looks to show the Atlantic gearing up again around then also but that it is a long way off.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭ typhoony


    Models in good agreement that it is looking fairly settled and mostly dry from +120 hrs, slack winds in general and some cooler days but looks like some decent enough temperatures a few days also. Some cool frosty nights in places in there too it would seem with a touch of fog at times. Looks like a decent spell coming up to get Spring well and truly established.

    GFS goes on to see the HP eroded from the NW around +240 hrs, ECM looks to show the Atlantic gearing up again around then also but that it is a long way off.

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    even the cool down at the end of this week is not likely to happen, nice settled weather at times a bit misty but you'd expect as the sun gets higher in the sky it will burn off the clouds during the afternoons, 14/15c looks possible in the SW. After 10 days both ECM and GFS hint at a return of cooler Polar Maritime air but nothing too severe


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    typhoony wrote: »
    even the cool down at the end of this week is not likely to happen, nice settled weather at times a bit misty but you'd expect as the sun gets higher in the sky it will burn off the clouds during the afternoons, 14/15c looks possible in the SW. After 10 days both ECM and GFS hint at a return of cooler Polar Maritime air but nothing too severe


    Yeah even the 12Z is looking milder again now at the end of the run

    Very little rainfall showing up on the present charts

    GFS also doing a good job maintaining the Hp blocking out the Atlantic, similar Temps.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭ typhoony


    suprised nobody has mentioned the Polar Maritime train headind our way at the end of the month


  • Registered Users Posts: 830 ✭✭✭ Neddyusa


    typhoony wrote: »
    suprised nobody has mentioned the Polar Maritime train headind our way at the end of the month

    Haven't seen the charts but cold, wet and windy is a safe bet.
    "In like a Lamb, Out like a Lion" is surely the most accurate of all the weather-lore sayings.
    Only remember one or two exceptional years where March didn't play out that way.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Some cooler days and frosty nights in places in the second half of next week , the end of the run at +240 hrs back to SW'lys and milder perhaps.

    Possible wintry showers at times, and getting to the time of year when colder upper air and the stronger sun can lead to convective weather with hail and thunderstorm activity.

    Maybe a few white mountain caps in the W, NW and N

    ECM and GFS quite similar

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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    There has been slight upgrade in next Fridays cold snap. If it comes as progged it’ll be a short one but it appears that Ulster may have some low level snow showers east on Friday and possibly through the day.

    The airmass is sourced from eastern Canada and is relatively unstable. This airmass is 2c colder than the one that brought some snow showers to altitudes above 200 metres last week. So should be less marginal.

    As always the further NW the better.

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    The old GFS has heights as low as 520 decametre.

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    So we will have to wait and see how this progresses.. a slight change in 850hPa will affect the final outcome.

    This is my experience with these events:
    -4c 850hPa = hill snow only
    -7c 850hPa = low level snow in Ulster

    So will be watching for those lower 850hPa’s!!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    Snow still showing in this run. In fact the cold air heads further south.

    -7c 850hPa across most of the island on Friday morning and theta e of 11c which is rather cold for an Atlantic airmass.

    It is showing on the ECM but slightly warmer.

    Theta E (shows cold air advection, needs to be <12 for low level snow in convective maritime air)

    The easterly was around 8-10. So very cold for a NW incursion.

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    850hPa’s as low as -8c in some spots. I would prefer this to be more widespread but it shouldn’t be an issue in heavy showers.

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    <520dam

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    Low freezing levels in Ulster.

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    If this occurs as predicted, I think the likelihood of low level snow falling in the showers in NW Connaught and Ulster is quite high!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yeah Nqp15hhu, ECM showing Fri from the early hours to be a one off wintry day with snow potential , more so on higher ground, W, NW and N showing showing the most potential , in fact on this run the Western half of the country seeing wintry showers . Even colder on this run but a long way off and could easily modify before then. Last few runs showing it being a windy day also so added wind chill. Other models showing similar cold potential. One to watch.

    Milder and rain fronts crossing the country on Saturday as winds switch more SW'ly.

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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,254 ✭✭✭ Nqp15hhu


    The 00Z is even more of an upgrade, has 516dam over Ulster and Connaught at 132 hours!

    Ulster is under >-6c 850hPa for 24 hours...


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭ typhoony


    Nqp15hhu wrote: »
    The 00Z is even more of an upgrade, has 516dam over Ulster and Connaught at 132 hours!

    Ulster is under >-6c 850hPa for 24 hours...

    Good potential from Mayo northwards, especially inland higher locations like Knock for example


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,094 ✭✭✭ tanko


    What is the week beginning Monday 29th looking like at the moment?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭ Donegal Storm


    Just logged on to meteociel to have a look at the charts and I see their datacentre burned down last week and destroyed all their stuff :eek:

    Hopefully they can get back up and running, its a site I've relied on for years


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭ CloughCasey1


    tanko wrote: »
    What is the week beginning Monday 29th looking like at the moment?

    2 foot of rain Tanko. The wet kind.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,094 ✭✭✭ tanko


    2 foot of rain Tanko. The wet kind.

    You'll be delighted with that, your place is burning up this week i suppose:pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭ CloughCasey1


    tanko wrote: »
    You'll be delighted with that, your place is burning up this week i suppose:pac:

    Rain dance at the ready.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,607 ✭✭✭ snowgal


    potential cold Easter on the cards?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,853 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yeah knowing this year and all the craziness going on we will prob get a cold April. I think its better getting cold in April and May as the heat usually (usually) shows up in Summer then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 222 ✭✭ bosco12345


    Any update on this potential northerly blast heading our way over Easter?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,638 ✭✭✭ PowerToWait


    Neddyusa wrote: »
    "In like a Lamb, Out like a Lion" is surely the most accurate of all the weather-lore sayings.
    Only remember one or two exceptional years where March didn't play out that way.

    I've only ever heard it the other way around?


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