FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Gonzo

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally long range +T120 onward for Spring 2021.

If your post does not specifically relate to a Fantasy Island chart (extended long range charts) then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved or deleted.

Thanks

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Winter 2020/2021 has come to a very mild end with spring like conditions for the past few weeks. We are currently in a very mild and dry pattern, but will it last and deliver a Spring as mild and dry as 2020?

Current models suggest that we may get another week of dry and fairly mild weather, however there are signs that things may cool down to slightly below average temperatures from the second week of March. Nothing too cold is modeled so we are unlikely to get anything like March 2018 or March 2013.

There are signs of the Atlantic making a comeback with possibly cold zonality from the 8th of March.



This could lead to bands of rain or showers which may turn wintry at times, particularly over high ground in the north and west.





Several areas of low pressure may cross the country or close to us during the middle part of March with some fairly strong winds and staying fairly cool.



We finish up with heights trying to rise again from the south introducing much milder conditions from the south.

Meteorite58

Atlantic kicking off again next week it would seem very likely at this stage. Some windy days, getting cooler, frontal bands, wintry showers on higher ground, colder sourced W and NW'lys, the latter half of next week looks fairly cold, maybe a bit milder over the following weekend if the winds turn more Southerly .

Very fast Jet from around Tuesday, we will see how the LP's progress and if they become more or less of a threat.

Rainfall totals would be mainly from later Sunday to Saturday.

Meteorite58

igCorcaigh was wondering over in the Spring thread if there will be a thread created for wind and rain for Tues / Weds. Well the models are very closely grouped together in showing some very windy and wet weather later Weds in to Thurs. Still just about over the +120 hrs so a fair bit away yet but the UKMO and ECM have increased their wind speeds for this. A good bit to go yet but certainly worth keeping an eye on it.

Quite cold behind it, wintry showers with a few white mountain tops especially the NE and W.

typhoony

GFS at 138 and ECM at 144 are very similar, tentative signs of proper Springlike weather

typhoony

at least the springlike weather will materialise as was suggested by the models and lasting all of next week, after that a brief cool down before we get the injection of the azores high again the following week, at least that is what GFS is suggesting. It's been a few years since we've had a proper mild spring, there has been years where high temperatures have been recorded for a few days then a sharp drop. I have a hunch this year will see a more consistent period of mild settled weather up until the end of April.

Billcarson

typhoony wrote: »

at least the springlike weather will materialise as was suggested by the models and lasting all of next week, after that a brief cool down before we get the injection of the azores high again the following week, at least that is what GFS is suggesting. It's been a few years since we've had a proper mild spring, there has been years where high temperatures have been recorded for a few days then a sharp drop. I have a hunch this year will see a more consistent period of mild settled weather up until the end of April.

Last spring was a mild spring. Last spring was our summer.

US2

Billcarson wrote: »

Last spring was a mild spring. Last spring was our summer.

And Spring 2019 was milder again i think ?

cute geoge

Last spring was not mild .It was bright ,dry no rain at all ,sunny but cold all the way in to June when the weather changed

Gonzo

Indeed Spring 2020 was our summer. Much of it was cool, there were some fairly sharp northerly plunges and cool easterlies however the cold uppers were softened by blue skies and lots of sunshine. There were some milder sections which were also full of sunshine and blue skies. The very end of the Spring dry spell end of May to 2nd of June was the warmest few days of the year with temperatures in the low 20s. The rest of the summer was teens with the exception of one or two days were above 20C was reached.

Gonzo

And as for the early part of this Spring, it looks like we are going to stay on the mild side for the next week but there is potential for some northerlies or easterly's later. Bit late in the season at this stage,why couldn't we get this in February when the relentless mild took over.







Looks like plenty of relatively dry weather over the next two weeks which is a big plus, however it may be on the cool side at times and frost at night is a possibility.

Meteorite58

Yeah a lot less rain showing up in the charts next week, looks good for the outside jobs again, maybe a few frosty nights in places, I see some 15C and 16C showing up around next Tues and Weds, looking a bit cooler after that but maybe up about 12 or 13C especially further South.

Meteorite58

Models in good agreement that it is looking fairly settled and mostly dry from +120 hrs, slack winds in general and some cooler days but looks like some decent enough temperatures a few days also. Some cool frosty nights in places in there too it would seem with a touch of fog at times. Looks like a decent spell coming up to get Spring well and truly established.

GFS goes on to see the HP eroded from the NW around +240 hrs, ECM looks to show the Atlantic gearing up again around then also but that it is a long way off.

typhoony

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Models in good agreement that it is looking fairly settled and mostly dry from +120 hrs, slack winds in general and some cooler days but looks like some decent enough temperatures a few days also. Some cool frosty nights in places in there too it would seem with a touch of fog at times. Looks like a decent spell coming up to get Spring well and truly established.

GFS goes on to see the HP eroded from the NW around +240 hrs, ECM looks to show the Atlantic gearing up again around then also but that it is a long way off.

even the cool down at the end of this week is not likely to happen, nice settled weather at times a bit misty but you'd expect as the sun gets higher in the sky it will burn off the clouds during the afternoons, 14/15c looks possible in the SW. After 10 days both ECM and GFS hint at a return of cooler Polar Maritime air but nothing too severe

Meteorite58

typhoony wrote: »

even the cool down at the end of this week is not likely to happen, nice settled weather at times a bit misty but you'd expect as the sun gets higher in the sky it will burn off the clouds during the afternoons, 14/15c looks possible in the SW. After 10 days both ECM and GFS hint at a return of cooler Polar Maritime air but nothing too severe

Yeah even the 12Z is looking milder again now at the end of the run

Very little rainfall showing up on the present charts

GFS also doing a good job maintaining the Hp blocking out the Atlantic, similar Temps.

typhoony

suprised nobody has mentioned the Polar Maritime train headind our way at the end of the month

Neddyusa

typhoony wrote: »

suprised nobody has mentioned the Polar Maritime train headind our way at the end of the month

Haven't seen the charts but cold, wet and windy is a safe bet.
"In like a Lamb, Out like a Lion" is surely the most accurate of all the weather-lore sayings.
Only remember one or two exceptional years where March didn't play out that way.

Meteorite58

Some cooler days and frosty nights in places in the second half of next week , the end of the run at +240 hrs back to SW'lys and milder perhaps.

Possible wintry showers at times, and getting to the time of year when colder upper air and the stronger sun can lead to convective weather with hail and thunderstorm activity.

Maybe a few white mountain caps in the W, NW and N

ECM and GFS quite similar

Nqp15hhu

There has been slight upgrade in next Fridays cold snap. If it comes as progged it’ll be a short one but it appears that Ulster may have some low level snow showers east on Friday and possibly through the day.

The airmass is sourced from eastern Canada and is relatively unstable. This airmass is 2c colder than the one that brought some snow showers to altitudes above 200 metres last week. So should be less marginal.

As always the further NW the better.





The old GFS has heights as low as 520 decametre.





So we will have to wait and see how this progresses.. a slight change in 850hPa will affect the final outcome.

This is my experience with these events:
-4c 850hPa = hill snow only
-7c 850hPa = low level snow in Ulster

So will be watching for those lower 850hPa’s!!

Nqp15hhu

Snow still showing in this run. In fact the cold air heads further south.

-7c 850hPa across most of the island on Friday morning and theta e of 11c which is rather cold for an Atlantic airmass.

It is showing on the ECM but slightly warmer.

Theta E (shows cold air advection, needs to be <12 for low level snow in convective maritime air)

The easterly was around 8-10. So very cold for a NW incursion.




850hPa’s as low as -8c in some spots. I would prefer this to be more widespread but it shouldn’t be an issue in heavy showers.




<520dam



Low freezing levels in Ulster.





If this occurs as predicted, I think the likelihood of low level snow falling in the showers in NW Connaught and Ulster is quite high!

Meteorite58

Yeah Nqp15hhu, ECM showing Fri from the early hours to be a one off wintry day with snow potential , more so on higher ground, W, NW and N showing showing the most potential , in fact on this run the Western half of the country seeing wintry showers . Even colder on this run but a long way off and could easily modify before then. Last few runs showing it being a windy day also so added wind chill. Other models showing similar cold potential. One to watch.

Milder and rain fronts crossing the country on Saturday as winds switch more SW'ly.

Nqp15hhu

The 00Z is even more of an upgrade, has 516dam over Ulster and Connaught at 132 hours!

Ulster is under >-6c 850hPa for 24 hours...

typhoony

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The 00Z is even more of an upgrade, has 516dam over Ulster and Connaught at 132 hours!

Ulster is under >-6c 850hPa for 24 hours...

Good potential from Mayo northwards, especially inland higher locations like Knock for example

tanko

What is the week beginning Monday 29th looking like at the moment?

Donegal Storm

Just logged on to meteociel to have a look at the charts and I see their datacentre burned down last week and destroyed all their stuff :eek:

Hopefully they can get back up and running, its a site I've relied on for years

CloughCasey1

tanko wrote: »

What is the week beginning Monday 29th looking like at the moment?

2 foot of rain Tanko. The wet kind.

tanko

CloughCasey1 wrote: »

2 foot of rain Tanko. The wet kind.

You'll be delighted with that, your place is burning up this week i suppose:pac:

CloughCasey1

tanko wrote: »

You'll be delighted with that, your place is burning up this week i suppose:pac:

Rain dance at the ready.

snowgal

potential cold Easter on the cards?

pauldry

Yeah knowing this year and all the craziness going on we will prob get a cold April. I think its better getting cold in April and May as the heat usually (usually) shows up in Summer then.

bosco12345

Any update on this potential northerly blast heading our way over Easter?

PowerToWait

Neddyusa wrote: »

"In like a Lamb, Out like a Lion" is surely the most accurate of all the weather-lore sayings.
Only remember one or two exceptional years where March didn't play out that way.

I've only ever heard it the other way around?

bosco12345

bosco12345 wrote: »

Any update on this potential northerly blast heading our way over Easter?

Considerably watered down on tonights ECM,thanks be to fcuk
Looks quite bland on that for Easter
Touch of NE by day 10
But you know what they say about day 10's

Nqp15hhu

I'm not sure what the above poster is referring to. The 12Z ECMWF run today still showed the -10c 850hPa flirting with the northern coasts next Thursday.

At this moment in time, the cold spell is still in play.

nacho libre

Typical! Chase a northerly all winter and one may well come along in April. Although, i seem to recall in years gone by we often got potent northerlies in late March into April.

Drum Maigh Eo

nacho libre wrote: »

Typical! Chase a northerly all winter and one may well come along in April. Although, i seem to recall in years gone by we often got potent northerlies in late March into April.

https://www.rte.ie/archives/2019/0305/1034374-april-snow-showers/

pauldry

we need rubbish weather until the end of May then we might get a Summer......or rubbish weather

Meteorite58

Just have to include the chart for next Thurs !


Next week ,after some mild days if not feeling relatively warm in places, set to cool down again towards the weekend. Looks like a lot of dry weather up until around Sunday. Models showing it to get very cold around Sunday from a Northerly plunge of Arctic air.

GFS showing it to get cooler earlier than the ECM from Weds. Will see.

Kermit.de.frog

Winter's not done yet.

scooby77

Met app forecasting 19° for Sligo on Wednesday afternoon!

Neddyusa

PowerToWait wrote: »

I've only ever heard it the other way around?

Really?!!

Goes both ways. In like lamb, out like a lion - or vice versa

LameBeaver

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Winter's not done yet.

At this point in the year winter can fcuk off and not have any notion of coming back before November/December at the earliest.

LameBeaver

LameBeaver wrote: »

At this point in the year winter can fcuk off and not have any notion of coming back before November/December at the earliest.

Yeh. MT’s forecast not looking good on that front though.

Meteorite58

Certainly a cold outlook in the models after the mild few days early next week, ECM showing some very cold widespread frosty nights next weekend, could turn wintry again out at the end of the run.

Artane2002

I'm astonished by the silence in here considering we're seeing charts like these:

compsys

Neddyusa wrote: »

Haven't seen the charts but cold, wet and windy is a safe bet.
"In like a Lamb, Out like a Lion" is surely the most accurate of all the weather-lore sayings.
Only remember one or two exceptional years where March didn't play out that way.

The saying is: 'in like a lion, out like a lamb'.

March usually starts off poor as so close to winter but ends up milder as spring gets underway. Which usually happens in Ireland too - many years our coldest weather is very end of Feb and first few days of March.

PukkaStukka

Artane2002 wrote: »

I'm astonished by the silence in here considering we're seeing charts like these:

The charts have only themselves to blame !

Oneiric 3

Chart from early April 2008. I recall quite frequent snow showers during this time, but they passed over quickly. They may well have been more significant further north but this I don't recall.

TTLF

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Chart from early April 2008. I recall quite frequent snow showers during this time, but they passed over quickly. They may well have been more significant further north but this I don't recall.

If you look up some videos on Youtube of April 2008, you can see the snow cover actually wasn't that bad. I recall walking out of the opticians aged 6 to a blinding blizzard that made everything white! Of-course, it melted when the sun came out, but it stuck during daytime hours when it was snowing! Truly incredible.

Oneiric 3

Another chart from early April 1998:



No doubt this would have brought down some snow showers to places as well. Funny thing is, if you look back on the reanalysis charts for this similar period in April down through the years, northerlies are actually very common and it would seem that Arctic air masses have an easier time getting down towards us than at another point in the year, which may well have something to do with the sea temps between here and there, which are generally at their coldest of the year around this time.

External Association

That's the Good Friday Agreement shot Bitter Good Friday. Snow showers and -5C at night. 10 April 1998.

External Association

TTLF wrote: »

If you look up some videos on Youtube of April 2008, you can see the snow cover actually wasn't that bad. I recall walking out of the opticians aged 6 to a blinding blizzard that made everything white! Of-course, it melted when the sun came out, but it stuck during daytime hours when it was snowing! Truly incredible.

I remember cycling in heavy snow showers in north Kilkenny, snow sticking to fields initially, the roads above 250m.