Recession predictions

30-03-2021 5:07am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Yup, our housing issues have become extremely serious, the finances alone will not solve the problem, we need to get cracking with training people, and fast. The state is the largest land owner, so there shouldn't be issues there, but there does seem to be issues regarding new regs since the crash, increasing reluctance to build, so that must also be addressed. We 're very quickly running out of time with this one, the longer this goes on, the more serious it's becoming, and the more serious long term effects it's creating, both economically and socially

What builders lobby do is putting huge pressure on government using media trying make government buy houses from builders and pay builders for built houses because due with unemployment economy downturn and buyers shortage builders does'nt want end the same as in 2008.
The ECB printing money to move economy of EU forward lending those money with zero per cent and lobby groups in many countries are fighting for them because there will be money shortage due with economy downturn.
If we will look to how many governments in history was fighting against economy downturns we will see how much money been invested in infrastructure how many people been employed and how many people made billions.Same here again.
At the moment we not just see how builders try grab big piece of cake we also see different fantasies from groups of " green energy supporters" etc,etc,etc
What is another predictions of recession comming.
All this noises about supply shortage / demand on media is paid preasure to government from lobby groups and zombi propaganda for tax payers which will have pay debs of government.

Wanderer78 · 30-03-2021 5:19am

^^^Jesus, how do even try unpack that one

30-03-2021 6:55am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

^^^Jesus, how do even try unpack that one

Inflation and unemployment will be very interesting combination

Wanderer78 · 30-03-2021 8:14am

Deleted User wrote: »

Inflation and unemployment will be very interesting combination

ah we ll figure it out, theres loads of ideas around the place, and a shed load of work needing to be done, we ll be fine

Geuze · 30-03-2021 12:19pm

If anybody can suggest ways to increase the numbers of plumbers/carpenters/electricians/builders within 12 months, I'd love to know.

We have hundreds of thousands unemployed today, yet we struggle to get these workers.

30-03-2021 12:39pm

Geuze wrote: »

If anybody can suggest ways to increase the numbers of plumbers/carpenters/electricians/builders within 12 months, I'd love to know.

We have hundreds of thousands unemployed today, yet we struggle to get these workers.

Population of Brazil 214 millions,many of them working on sites already.
The next way will be company Seatek which getting paid by government for employing unemployed people.If unemployed refuse job offer his job seeker allowance will be reduced by 50 per cent,if he will refuse again his allowance will be canceled.That how Ireland came to full employment in 2019.
No problem at all !

KyussB · 30-03-2021 12:45pm

Geuze wrote: »

If anybody can suggest ways to increase the numbers of plumbers/carpenters/electricians/builders within 12 months, I'd love to know.

We have hundreds of thousands unemployed today, yet we struggle to get these workers.

We've had almost a decade of housing/accommodation crisis in one degree or another, and chances are we'll have another decade of a housing/accommodation crisis - with a very large number of those years having sizeable unemployment.

Are you suggesting that, given a crisis likely to last ~20 years from start to finish, that the government can't hire people and train them into all of those roles, within any of that timeframe?

The housing crisis isn't going to fix itself while we're busy not training anyone into the roles needed to fix it, so we've got plenty of time to do that...

Wanderer78 · 30-03-2021 1:05pm

Geuze wrote: »

If anybody can suggest ways to increase the numbers of plumbers/carpenters/electricians/builders within 12 months, I'd love to know.

We have hundreds of thousands unemployed today, yet we struggle to get these workers.

obviously covid has had a dreadful affect with employment markets, but there will be a slow return as soon as it moves on, if you re talking about the long term unemployed, thats a much different kettle of fish, as thats generally due to extremely complex social issues, which certainly wont be solved as quickly unfortunately

30-03-2021 1:10pm

To be honest I more worry about were we will get property buyers with 25 per cent unemployment when PUP and other supports will be ended.Because at the moment we don't have problems with supply we have problem with buyers without money which can't afford buy property at existing price and apply for social housing

Wanderer78 · 30-03-2021 1:18pm

Deleted User wrote: »

To be honest I more worry about were we will get property buyers with 25 per cent unemployment when PUP and other supports will be ended.Because at the moment we don't have problems with supply we have problem with buyers without money which can't afford buy property at existing price and apply for social housing

this is incorrect, we re still experiencing a major supply issue, and by the looks of it, this will remain to be for a very long time, apparently most houses on the market are complete dirt, and prices are off walls for them. looks like theres still some out there that have access to the funds to buy, also sounds like many sales are falling through

30-03-2021 1:59pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

this is incorrect, we re still experiencing a major supply issue, and by the looks of it, this will remain to be for a very long time, apparently most houses on the market are complete dirt, and prices are off walls for them. looks like theres still some out there that have access to the funds to buy, also sounds like many sales are falling through

2 guys from different shoes companies went to warm country for market research
One guy sent letter to his boss later
Boss,totally wrong invest here because they doesn't wear shoes
The other guy sent letter to his boss
Boss,we need invest here! Huge money on way ! Nobody doesn't have shoes here !

Geuze · 30-03-2021 3:33pm

KyussB wrote: »

Are you suggesting that, given a crisis likely to last ~20 years from start to finish, that the government can't hire people and train them into all of those roles, within any of that timeframe?

The housing crisis isn't going to fix itself while we're busy not training anyone into the roles needed to fix it, so we've got plenty of time to do that...

I am suggesting the following:

it seems young people don't want to join these occupations
there are shortages
clearly there are skills mis-matches between unemployed and vacancies

Here are my policy proposals

(1) maybe give temporary income tax relief to returning Irish, who commit to work in these trades [that may be legally difficult?]

(2) attempt to change the mindset of parents, to convince them that these occupations are good

(3) boost the "status" of apprenticeships / lower fees / give grants / any other suggestions?

(4) reduce the numbers going to uni / 300 points courses

What I mean is - do anything, and everything to increase the supply of these workers

I suggest the Housing Agency / LDA / councils enter into long-term 10yr contracts with building contractors, this would help bring certainty.

Geuze · 30-03-2021 3:34pm

Deleted User wrote: »

To be honest I more worry about were we will get property buyers with 25 per cent unemployment when PUP and other supports will be ended.Because at the moment we don't have problems with supply we have problem with buyers without money which can't afford buy property at existing price and apply for social housing

This is false.

There is serious under-supply of houses for sale in Ireland.

There is way too little new construction.

Wanderer78 · 30-03-2021 6:13pm

Geuze wrote: »

I am suggesting the following:

it seems young people don't want to join these occupations
there are shortages
clearly there are skills mis-matches between unemployed and vacancies

Here are my policy proposals

(1) maybe give temporary income tax relief to returning Irish, who commit to work in these trades [that may be legally difficult?]

(2) attempt to change the mindset of parents, to convince them that these occupations are good

(3) boost the "status" of apprenticeships / lower fees / give grants / any other suggestions?

(4) reduce the numbers going to uni / 300 points courses

What I mean is - do anything, and everything to increase the supply of these workers

I suggest the Housing Agency / LDA / councils enter into long-term 10yr contracts with building contractors, this would help bring certainty.

some good points, but i wouldnt necessarily penalize third level entrants, increasing points would do just that, theres not a hope in hell i would have gotten into third level with such a proposal, and i suspect many of my fellow class mates would have been the same. many have since gone on and created very successful careers, all playing vital roles in society. opening up our third level to more has significantly changed our society and economy for the better, it has brought us to this exact point, with major success stories, and failures of course, but that doesnt mean we should implement barriers towards access for some

but i will agree in regards dramatically changing how we present trades, what we have is beyond diabolical. our educational system, particularly at the earlier stages, secondary, effectively dont represent the trades at all, our system is in fact academically biased. as we re now finding out, and painfully, society actually needs a multitude of differently skilled and trained people, all working in some sort of unison, in order to provide us with all of our needs, this of course includes academically trained, but also trades, alternatives, lowly educated, even none educated individuals etc etc. i maybe wrong in regards the country, but i think Switzerland has a dedicated educational and training system for its trades, it is on a similar level of respect as its academic counter parts, this is where we truly need to go with the trades, its a critical function of a society.

KyussB · 30-03-2021 9:21pm

Geuze wrote: »

I am suggesting the following:

it seems young people don't want to join these occupations
there are shortages
clearly there are skills mis-matches between unemployed and vacancies

Here are my policy proposals

(1) maybe give temporary income tax relief to returning Irish, who commit to work in these trades [that may be legally difficult?]

(2) attempt to change the mindset of parents, to convince them that these occupations are good

(3) boost the "status" of apprenticeships / lower fees / give grants / any other suggestions?

(4) reduce the numbers going to uni / 300 points courses

What I mean is - do anything, and everything to increase the supply of these workers

I suggest the Housing Agency / LDA / councils enter into long-term 10yr contracts with building contractors, this would help bring certainty.

I highly doubt that people would desire to remain long-term-unemployed rather than take a construction job. The entire construction/development sector and accommodation market is manipulated to the point that it works nothing like a regular market - so in such a warped set of markets, the very last place I'd lean for explaining that, is "people don't want that type of work".

There is more than enough direct evidence of systemically warped/manipulated markets in that sector, to make that explanation basically an insult to the unemployed.

You are presenting more market-based solutions, after almost a decade of market failure and endless failed attempts at market-based solutions due to that.

A Job Guarantee, which necessarily is combined with training for the work being done, can solve this tomorrow pretty much - getting a huge number of people training into these exact roles, and directly building accommodation.

If the private sector wants those newly trained workers bad enough, then they would be available: They just have to outbid the JG wage and provide job conditions that are better than the JG, to entice workers out of the JG.

You would have us wait another decade using destined-to-fail solutions with no timeline for success.

Direct government employment can instead start solving this pretty much immediately (as well as meeting the bigger primary goal of permanent Full Output/Employment), and shortly after the program ramps up it can deliver fairly direct/credible targets and timelines for meeting them.

30-03-2021 10:50pm

Geuze wrote: »

This is false.

There is serious under-supply of houses for sale in Ireland.

There is way too little new construction.

I am not the one who believe that.
Media getting paid by builders and lobby groups for singing those songs.

Geuze · 31-03-2021 12:00am

KyussB wrote: »

I highly doubt that people would desire to remain long-term-unemployed rather than take a construction job. The entire construction/development sector and accommodation market is manipulated to the point that it works nothing like a regular market - so in such a warped set of markets, the very last place I'd lean for explaining that, is "people don't want that type of work".

Existing builders and parents specifically tell me that there aren't enough young people entering the trades.

(Regarding plumbing, I can sort of understand it, down on knees in water/wet)

Builders from NI travel south to work.

My own cousin left plumbing during the 2009/2010 crash, AFAIK, and works for a MNC in medical devices.

He tells me there are other ex-trades people in the MNC.

We need to made the construction sector more steady, less boom and bust, to convince workers to join this sector.

Geuze · 31-03-2021 12:04am

KyussB wrote: »

Direct government employment can instead start solving this pretty much immediately (as well as meeting the bigger primary goal of permanent Full Output/Employment), and shortly after the program ramps up it can deliver fairly direct/credible targets and timelines for meeting them.

Nobody is suggesting the local governments directly hire plumbers/carpenters/block-layers, etc.

(Maybe the extreme-left suggest this??)

That would lead to further inefficiency, like the HSE.

As they say about the hospitals: it's run by the unions and the doctors.

We don't want to spread that inefficiency / excessive costs / low productivity from the HSE to construction.

We do need more large scale building firms, with a steady flow of new construction.

KyussB · 31-03-2021 3:01am

The Job Guarantee precisely does make the construction sector more steady - when the private sector goes tits up, the Job Guarantee is there for all construction workers to shift into - there's endless infrastructural work that needs doing (particularly given the housing crisis, the need for mass climate change emissions retrofitting, simple public transport and general transport infrastructure expansion needs etc. etc., even getting a proper national broadband network done).

As I said to another poster earlier, you appear to just have an ideological objection to the government ever hiring anyone directly - and would rather leave people unemployed and leave the economy far below Full Output/Employment - simply for reasons of ideological purity.

The most inefficient thing of all is idle workers, when there is urgent/useful work to do, and the resources available to do it.

There is nothing more inefficient than a gigantic Output Gap - being below Full Output/Employment - by definition, because it is a permanent loss to GDP. GDP (not GDP Growth, raw GDP) will forever remain lower than it could have potentially risen to, every single day there's an Output Gap with necessary work left undone - that is a permanent irrecoverable loss to the economy, that is impossible to restore (closing the Output Gap only restores GDP Growth, it can never restore the loss to raw GDP).

Wanderer78 · 31-03-2021 7:37am

Revolution 1917 wrote:

I am not the one who believe that. Media getting paid by builders and lobby groups for singing those songs.

I'd class this as a your problem, because the facts are, we ve been suffering from chronic under supply since the previous crash, and this still is the case

Geuze wrote:

That would lead to further inefficiency, like the HSE.

We need to stop with this inefficiency talk, it's bloody childish at this stage, this stems from the Thatcher era, in which the primary goal was to thrash the public sector, and promote the private sector. It's glaringly obvious the failures of this thinking, yes there are indeed inefficiencies in the public sector, but so to there is in the private sector, one of the main inefficiencies of the private sector being rent seeking or wealth extraction. It is in fact these activities why our construction industry is completely wrecked, and why we 're now in an extremely serious situation regarding housing and accommodation, so much so, that this is now having extremely serious implications for all citizens futures

31-03-2021 8:39am

Geuze wrote: »

Existing builders and parents specifically tell me that there aren't enough young people entering the trades.

(Regarding plumbing, I can sort of understand it, down on knees in water/wet)

Builders from NI travel south to work.

My own cousin left plumbing during the 2009/2010 crash, AFAIK, and works for a MNC in medical devices.

He tells me there are other ex-trades people in the MNC.

We need to made the construction sector more steady, less boom and bust, to convince workers to join this sector.

There is plenty young Brazilians making timber frame houses at 11.50 per hour and more on way after because economic situation in Brazil will be worse.The one thing what builders worry about is back to bussines asap get money made before recession will come.Nobody care about shortage of anything they all care built house asap and get rid of it getting best price.Because all they know that recession on way.

Voltex · 03-04-2021 8:14am

Geuze wrote: »

I am suggesting the following:

it seems young people don't want to join these occupations
there are shortages
clearly there are skills mis-matches between unemployed and vacancies

Here are my policy proposals

(1) maybe give temporary income tax relief to returning Irish, who commit to work in these trades [that may be legally difficult?]

(2) attempt to change the mindset of parents, to convince them that these occupations are good

(3) boost the "status" of apprenticeships / lower fees / give grants / any other suggestions?

(4) reduce the numbers going to uni / 300 points courses

What I mean is - do anything, and everything to increase the supply of these workers

I suggest the Housing Agency / LDA / councils enter into long-term 10yr contracts with building contractors, this would help bring certainty.

Good grief! To me, that's the precepts of a planned economy, irrespective of any meritorious sentiments.

Geuze · 06-04-2021 11:48am

Voltex wrote: »

Good grief! To me, that's the precepts of a planned economy, irrespective of any meritorious sentiments.

Yes.

Believe me, I would prefer if the market delivered tens of thousands of houses each year.

It hasn't, since 2010, and it isn't, and there isn't any sign that it will.

So State action is required.

That action might be: remove all barriers to further increases in supply.

By that I mean, create the conditions to allow the supply-side to increase.

Specifically, I mean that at any selling price €x today, the market will supply 20,000 houses, then change the conditions, so that costs fall, so that at the same price €x, the market will supply 40,000 houses.

Specifically, change the supply conditions, so that there is much more supply at any and all prices.

I do not want the State to boost the demand-side of the market.

KyussB · 06-04-2021 12:21pm

Geuze wrote: »

Yes.

Believe me, I would prefer if the market delivered tens of thousands of houses each year.

It hasn't, since 2010, and it isn't, and there isn't any sign that it will.

So State action is required.

That action might be: remove all barriers to further increases in supply.

By that I mean, create the conditions to allow the supply-side to increase.

Specifically, I mean that at any selling price €x today, the market will supply 20,000 houses, then change the conditions, so that costs fall, so that at the same price €x, the market will supply 40,000 houses.

Specifically, change the supply conditions, so that there is much more supply at any and all prices.

I do not want the State to boost the demand-side of the market.

That's still a market-based solution, to a sector suffering severe market failure. That means continuing to wait another decade to see if the market-fairies fix things.

We have all of a large amount of idle labour, idle skills/training capacity, and idle resources - all ready for combining for the purpose of building accommodation.

If the markets don't want to do all of that, the only option left is for the state to do all of that - with economic conditions making this the perfect time for doing that, training up workers while the pandemic is still going on, and then getting building as soon as restrictions ease enough for that.

It is inherently inefficient to leave workers idle, when there is useful work to do and the resources available to do it.

LasersGoPewPew · 06-04-2021 12:49pm

Geuze wrote: »

By that I mean, create the conditions to allow the supply-side to increase.

Specifically, I mean that at any selling price €x today, the market will supply 20,000 houses, then change the conditions, so that costs fall, so that at the same price €x, the market will supply 40,000 houses.

Specifically, change the supply conditions, so that there is much more supply at any and all prices.

Can you explain what you mean by 'supply conditions'? Are you proposing to change the minimum BER requirements?

Geuze · 07-04-2021 12:15am

LasersGoPewPew wrote: »

Can you explain what you mean by 'supply conditions'? Are you proposing to change the minimum BER requirements?

No.

Reduce site costs.

Reduce finance costs.

Reduce developer margins.

Boost productivity / scale.

Wanderer78 · 07-04-2021 3:35am

Geuze wrote:

I do not want the State to boost the demand-side of the market.

....and this is what keeps happening, particularly in relation to the increase in supply of money to the situation, primarily credit, we have to stop these cycles, we 're slowly recreating the pre 08 conditions again, we have to push more towards a primarily state funded model, but primarily private sector built

An Ri rua · 24-04-2021 1:48pm

Well worth a 10 minute watch. Rare for a parliamentarian to make so much sense and have the wide-angle lens fitted.

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1385171529743310851?s=19

Hubertj · 24-04-2021 4:44pm

An Ri rua wrote: »

Well worth a 10 minute watch. Rare for a parliamentarian to make so much sense and have the wide-angle lens fitted.

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1385171529743310851?s=19

38% increase in house prices since December 2019? Ouch.

NSAman · 24-04-2021 5:11pm

An Ri rua wrote: »

Well worth a 10 minute watch. Rare for a parliamentarian to make so much sense and have the wide-angle lens fitted.

https://twitter.com/PierrePoilievre/status/1385171529743310851?s=19

Unusual to see a politician speak sense and clearly explain implications without being interrupted.

Everything he says is correct. Prices where I am are skyrocketing. Housing being bought sight-unseen. Prices have almost doubled here. Rents are surging. The price of lumber is crazy as are gas prices.

Shopping which normally would cost $120 a week is $200 a week now at least.

Inflation is here and unless interest rates rise, cash money is essentially the worst thing to hold either in cash or savings.

Wanderer78 · 24-04-2021 8:53pm

Asset prices have been largely rising due to rising amounts of private debt, which is created by the private sector, in the form of credit, this is what occurred during our previous credit fuelled building boom, I.e. It was caused by the private sector money supply. Most Western nations have followed the same approach, which surprise surprise, the same results! Private debt is in fact the most dangerous of the two, governments can in fact increase taxes to pull the money back out, and use it to pay down public debt, always baring in mind, paying off debt is in fact the destruction of money itself

KyussB · 25-04-2021 12:33pm

Not going to watch a random 10 minute long video, but one thing he's right about is that MMT certainly isn't new - nearly all of its insights have been known for almost a century - it's just taken that long for it to finally become mainstream macroeconomics, displacing ideas that are centuries out of date, yet have remained dominant.

Asset Price Inflation does not equal Inflation in general, though. MMT economists do not advocate giving finance and the wealthy massive amounts of QE printed money (that is driving this asset price inflation), either - that is not MMT policy.

The macroeconomic effects of QE and ZIRP have forced economists and politicians to acknowledge MMT, but it isn't MMT policy. Conservatives like the politician linked, will do everything they can to prevent actual MMT policy - because their politics are based on small-government conservatism - and MMT is the biggest threat to that since Keyne's.

25-04-2021 5:58pm

Will inflation will not kill wealth of richest people in world ? And them assets ? I am pretty sure that richest people of the world who control situation are against inflation !
When you have 100 billions and one day they worth nothing what about that ?
You can invest to property which will lose value because inflation
Now about our family spending and inflation
We was thinking buy new car but price went up so we decided buy used one
The government lost VAT and VRT tax
We was making about 25K km per year traveling around country and spending money in other towns now we make about 5K per year
We not buy new tyres every year and not make service of the car every year
Even when restrictions will be lifted we will not back on road because we saving money for property which price are rising but our wages not
I will not back to the pub
Before I was getting sandwiches from shop now I making them at home
Many,many things changed.The bigger the price the less we try to spend
Who wining ? Nobody
Bring prices up and we will spend less because our wages not growing.
Well the Central banks will bring rates up
What gonna change ? People will spend less trying saving money for paying mortgage

NSAman · 25-04-2021 6:08pm

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

Will inflation will not kill wealth of richest people in world ? And them assets ? I am pretty sure that richest people of the world who control situation are against inflation !
When you have 100 billions and one day they worth nothing what about that ?
You can invest to property which will lose value because inflation
Now about our family spending and inflation
We was thinking buy new car but price went up so we decided buy used one
The government lost VAT and VRT tax
We was making about 25K km per year traveling around country and spending money in other towns now we make about 5K per year
We not buy new tyres every year and not make service of the car every year
Even when restrictions will be lifted we will not back on road because we saving money for property which rice are rising but our wages not
I will not back to the pub
Before I was getting sandwiches from shop now I making them at home
Many,many things changed.The bigger the price the less we try to spend
Who wining ? Nobody
Bring prices up and we will spend less because our wages not growing.
Well the Central banks will bring rates up
What gonna change ? People will spend less trying saving money for paying mortgage

Those with money have it invested. A billionaire will rarely have a billion in cash sitting in some bank. They invest it in different things to off-set inflation. Stocks currently are at record prices, Bitcoin (some love it some hate it) has seen its price skyrocket fall and skyrocket again as to some it is seen as some safe haven. Gold silver will all rise if inflation starts. Property is seen as a way to hoard wealth and create income.

They will use debt as the answer to weakening currency and inflation.

The problem comes if old reliables of wealth do not rise in the way people expect them to.

Those that inflation hurts most are the middle and low income people. They have little investments, wages do not keep up with inflation, everything becomes more expensive and their wages don’t rise.

Arthur Daley · 25-04-2021 6:13pm

KyussB wrote: »

Asset Price Inflation does not equal Inflation in general, though.

There will be a relationship between the value of an asset and the income it earns. In simple terms high house prices, you can expect high rents. High share prices they will demand higher dividends. This is a clear well established link. Based on experience I wouldn't be expecting 'this time its different'

Wanderer78 · 25-04-2021 7:14pm

Arthur Daley wrote: »

There will be a relationship between the value of an asset and the income it earns. In simple terms high house prices, you can expect high rents. High share prices they will demand higher dividends. This is a clear well established link. Based on experience I wouldn't be expecting 'this time its different'

again, most inflation has been occurring in asset markets due to the private sector money supply, i.e. credit. you can clearly see this in this snap shot of our debts from the previous boom bust cycle

25-04-2021 7:20pm

The system is simple
The less buyers come to the shop the bigger the prices of the shoes
For example in my shop every month was coming 100 buyers which was creating 10K income
5K went to shop rent 2 K to buy another shop and 3 K to wages
Now only 60 buyers coming to my shop and I have bring prices up because my expenses are the same but income lower
That how is economy work and newly printed money has nothing to do with mu business plan
I will bring shoes price up when I will buy Porsche for my self
And the more I will bring price up the more VAT and income tax government will collect even if there will be only 20 buyers !
That how government calculate statistic income to budget

But then shoes factory closing because they could only sell 60 pairs of shoes and can not pay wages and loans

Well they can bring prices up but then I will bring my as well
This has nothing to do with freshly printed money this has something to do with less amount of buyers coming to my shop

Wanderer78 · 25-04-2021 7:23pm

Revolution 1917 wrote: »

The system is simple
The less buyers come to the shop the bigger the prices of the shoes
For example in my shop every month was coming 100 buyers which was creating 10K income
5K went to shop rent 2 K to buy another shop and 3 K to wages
Now only 60 buyers coming to my shop and I have bring prices up because my expenses are the same but income lower
That how is economy work and newly printed money has nothing to do with mu business plan
I will bring shoes price up when I will buy Porsche for my self
And the more I will bring price up the more VAT and income tax government will collect even if there will be only 20 buyers !
That how government calculate statistic income to budget
But then shoes factory closing because they could only sell 60 pairs of shoes and can not pay wages and loans
Well they can bring prices up but then I will bring my as well
This has nothing to do with freshly printed money this has something to do with less amount of buyers coming to my shop

...and this is why macroeconomics has been consistently failing, as its based on microeconomics thinking, macroeconomics simply does not work this way, its far more complex, hence why its termed a 'complex dynamic system'

KyussB · 25-04-2021 7:55pm

Seems that several posters mix up very different things and call it 'inflation' - and that when explaining that 'x' is different to general inflation, that is ignored - and things move back to inflation scaremongering.

Got to be careful with that, because if you respond to it you're giving a stage to keep repeating the same stuff over and over - even when it is completely free of any intelligible content.

As for how inflation actually looks right now: As long as economies are below maximum-GDP/Full-Output (i.e. Full Employment), then there is room to grow the economy more without significant inflation. We're not facing a shortage of any critical resource that would prevent such growth, and we're well below Full-Output/Employment - so we've got quite a long way to go before inflation is a concern.

If we want to deal with asset-price inflation for assets that have a real negative effect on our lives (nothing to do with general inflation...), then this is mostly about accommodation - which it has been obvious is a supply problem - which can only be solved by constructing a large amount of accommodation, and ensuring it ends up in the hands of people intending to live in the accommodation.

Private markets have consistently failed to do this over a decade, now - meaning that governments have to take up the slack and build in large amounts - and this is a perfect time to do that, as a Job Guarantee focused on building accommodation (among other things) can resolve that within half a decade.

Wanderer78 · 25-04-2021 8:04pm

KyussB wrote: »

Seems that several posters mix up very different things and call it 'inflation' - and that when explaining that 'x' is different to general inflation, that is ignored - and things move back to inflation scaremongering.

Got to be careful with that, because if you respond to it you're giving a stage to keep repeating the same stuff over and over - even when it is completely free of any intelligible content.

As for how inflation actually looks right now: As long as economies are below maximum-GDP/Full-Output (i.e. Full Employment), then there is room to grow the economy more without significant inflation. We're not facing a shortage of any critical resource that would prevent such growth, and we're well below Full-Output/Employment - so we've got quite a long way to go before inflation is a concern.

If we want to deal with asset-price inflation for assets that have a real negative effect on our lives (nothing to do with general inflation...), then this is mostly about accommodation - which it has been obvious is a supply problem - which can only be solved by constructing a large amount of accommodation, and ensuring it ends up in the hands of people intending to live in the accommodation.

Private markets have consistently failed to do this over a decade, now - meaning that governments have to take up the slack and build in large amounts - and this is a perfect time to do that, as a Job Guarantee focused on building accommodation (among other things) can resolve that within half a decade.

all true, but we re still ignoring the money supply issue, if we continue with primarily credit fueled building, we re still gonna have a serious rising price problem, which is happening

Zenify · 25-04-2021 8:11pm

KyussB wrote: »

As for how inflation actually looks right now: As long as economies are below maximum-GDP/Full-Output (i.e. Full Employment), then there is room to grow the economy more without significant inflation. We're not facing a shortage of any critical resource that would prevent such growth, and we're well below Full-Output/Employment - so we've got quite a long way to go before inflation is a concern.

Asset inflation is somewhat linked to general inflation. I know lots of European IT professionals refuse to work in Ireland due to the high costs of living here. Poland seems to be at the top of the list, earn way less but live far better. They say wages here would have to double to match their standard of living... lots of recruiters are upping wages to make up for this.

Inflation is here! You would be silly if you can't see it! Construction costs up, shipping costs way up, lots of extra costs for businesses due to covid and all upping prices.

Anyone who is an inflation denier right now needs to take their head out of the sand.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/timber-prices-rise-5-fuelling-inflation-in-construction-costs-1.4527427%3fmode=amp

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/manufacturing/tripling-of-china-europe-shipping-costs-threatens-goods-supply-1.4462200%3fmode=amp

KyussB · 25-04-2021 8:15pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

all true, but we re still ignoring the money supply issue, if we continue with primarily credit fueled building, we re still gonna have a serious rising price problem, which is happening

For the most part, as long as central banks keep the 3.5x income cap on lending, this should be fine - household debt has been dropping here in Ireland, and I think Corporate Debt is the bigger portion of Private Debt, now.

25-04-2021 8:46pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

...and this is why macroeconomics has been consistently failing, as its based on microeconomics thinking, macroeconomics simply does not work this way, its far more complex, hence why its termed a 'complex dynamic system'

Nothing works in this days mate because whole system collapsed.

Wanderer78 · 26-04-2021 6:32am

KyussB wrote:

For the most part, as long as central banks keep the 3.5x income cap on lending, this should be fine - household debt has been dropping here in Ireland, and I think Corporate Debt is the bigger portion of Private Debt, now.

There are limitations to these restrictions, some people are starting to move from more expensive regions to less expensive, bringing their money and access to money (credit rating) with them, there are also still international interests in our property markets, speculation etc, and with deposits significantly rising during covid, all still causing prices to rise in some regions, this situation has the potential to become much worse.

Corporate debt is certainly the bigger of the two at the moment, but we re trapped, for the reasons outlined, wage inflation is relatively low in comparison, this is a disaster, the bulk of our property debts must sit on the public balance sheet going forward, we have to break this cycle. Many younger generations are litterily stuck, unable to move out of the family home or out of the rental sector, everything is starting to back up, this is having serious implications for us all, its causing serious social mobility problems

KyussB · 26-04-2021 8:16am

The good news at least, is that while the state of the property market is complex, it's a simple one to fix: Build enough houses/accommodation, expand public transport to decentralize away from city center's, and put restrictions on foreign ownership of residential property.

All of this perfectly achievable by the government, especially if implementing a Job Guarantee with building accommodation being one of its initial goals.

We have the funding, we have the labour, we have the training capacity, we have the physical resources and industry needed - the private sector won't do it, so the government has to.

Wanderer78 · 26-04-2021 8:47am

KyussB wrote: »

The good news at least, is that while the state of the property market is complex, it's a simple one to fix: Build enough houses/accommodation, expand public transport to decentralize away from city center's, and put restrictions on foreign ownership of residential property.

All of this perfectly achievable by the government, especially if implementing a Job Guarantee with building accommodation being one of its initial goals.

We have the funding, we have the labour, we have the training capacity, we have the physical resources and industry needed - the private sector won't do it, so the government has to.

i completely understand where you re coming from, even though i dont completely agree with you, but we must realise exactly where we are right now, we must admit our reality. at the moment, virtually none of this is currently on the table, we re currently defaulting to the norm, and its catastrophically failing, this will more than likely end very badly for us all. i appreciate your opinions and knowledge on these subject matters, it far exceeds mine, but we re really not in a great place right now, our government and society at large, has little or no knowledge of what you speak of, it just knows the norm, ive no idea how we change this

Sharpyshoot · 26-04-2021 8:50am

Keep building council houses for the lads that don’t want to work.

Wanderer78 · 26-04-2021 8:55am

Sharpyshoot wrote: »

Keep building council houses for the lads that don’t want to work.

...and then you have people coming along with this sh1t also, the majority of citizens actually work, a large proportion of them, particularly younger generations, are currently unable to meet their property needs. its not just social housing thats desperately need, but all forms of housing and accommodation. you need to look into the root causes of long term unemployment, its far from your prejudice views

Sharpyshoot · 26-04-2021 9:02am

Don’t mind the fancy talk with calling a council house a social house.

Wanderer78 · 26-04-2021 9:30am

Sharpyshoot wrote: »

Don’t mind the fancy talk with calling a council house a social house.

what are you even talking about now, we clearly need a substantial increase in all types of housing and accommodation and as others have said, its clearly obvious, the private sector cant or simply wont do it, so...........

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