Property Market 2020

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Another factor which will have a huge bearing on our housing market is the impact of Covid 19 on the large US investors who control the market ; they are going to make losses both here and in the US if the housing market falls rapidly and financing will become an issue for them as Covid wreaks havoc in the US , how they react will have a big impact here .

If anything financing will become cheaper as the Fed opens the taps and buys all sorts of debt.

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

Something is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

Say I'm a builder, and it costs me €300,000 to build a house, but you only willing to pay €200,000 for it. You reckon that's it's 'worth'; not €300,000?

If that's what you think, would you build any houses, if you were me?

ZX7R wrote: »

The O.E.C.D are saying a much more positive news in regards to our economy
Out of all oecd members
Ireland's economy to be least damaged by coronavirous containment measures.
Maybe the housing market might not be affected as much.
Full report can be viewed on their webpage

And from the Irish Times review of the OECD report:

Irish Times wrote:

GDP is, however, considered a poor barometer of Irish economic activity because of the presence of so many big multinationals, which skew the headline numbers.

This suggests the OECD’s forecast may significantly underestimate the economic fallout here.

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Schools will be back before September, you can quote me there.

What do you base that on?

cnocbui wrote: »

Probably, but they will be repeating the current year, starting in Sep.

Won't be happening

nerrad01 wrote: »

Covid is here forever until either we have a vaccine or we develop herd immunity, this is going to last a long time in terms of varying levels of restrictions. Anyone who thinks everything will be back to normal very soon is wrong, the big fear will be another wave of infections when winter rolls around.

No it won't. If you stop transmission for longer than the time it takes for an infected person to get over it and become non-infections, then you wipe out the disease, as was done with the original SARS and Smallpox.

The real issue will be travel. People who have immunity can travel outside the country, but those who haven't can't, without a fast antibody test on return. Air travel will have to be restricted when we come out of lock-down. Those without some proof of antibody positivity will need an antibody test before being allowed in. More likely the EU will probably require the proof before boarding.

maestroamado wrote: »

I am curious about this, does the €300,000 include the site cost?

Also is housing estate or one-off stand alone. I do know that the cost and hassle of getting planning in the countryside is difficult.
I was talking to a guy the other day who said he spent 30,000 trying to get planning and eventually gave up.

I had a house built 15 years ago, i do not think i get much more out of it now than what i put i then.
I was thinking of moving this summer but that may be on hold now.
I know a few local guys who are in the building trade and most of them bought houses instead of self build.

I also was hoping to sell before this happened. I was anticipating asking about the replacement build cost of the house alone. A buyer would be getting the land, well, paving, shed, lawn, garden and driveway for free.

Those tradesmen are smart, they bought because it's cheaper than building. This is what the people who think the market is/was over priced and want houses to cost what they can afford don't seem to get, their idea of fair value is below the production cost. This is why building activity has been so low. If prices do fall, I doubt two out of the three prospects near me will go ahead.

One of the best things the government could do to get the economy going again after this is to reduce all the government charges and costs so they are no more than 5% of the project cost. Councils need to have their charges reigned in by legislation, the greedy bleeps got handed the huge windfall of property tax and they still want more. In the village near me, they were pulling up perfectly good concrete foot paths and replacing them with fancy brick paving. If they have the money to waste doing that, they have too much money.

wirelessdude01 wrote: »

Won't be happening

At least one kid in the UK killed himself because he heard a rumour that the mocks exam result was going to be used instead.

fliball123 wrote: »

You need to look at how many people got turfed out of their home when the last recession hit. Banks have not got the power to take the family home off someone even after years of not paying their mortgage. This argument is null and void Ireland is the safest country in the world to own your own house

The banks can and do take houses from people. It might take time but they do it. Have a look at Bidx1. The majority of the properties offered are repossessions. The banks also pressure people to sell before going to court. It is a myth that repossession is impossible.

Maitguel wrote: »

What if that OAP didn’t own the house to begin with? Could have been living with a family member, could have been under the state’s care, my point is that this cohort is not going to be enough to move the market. Plus has anyone had experience of the probable process? It takes years for anything to be done with the assets, that property being up for sale and sold in 12 months post death is very much best case scenario.

Doesnt matter who owned it, if someone moves out by dying, then there is now a house that a net new person can live in.

milhous wrote: »

Housing you is the councils problem, not the banks. MABS only works if the debt can be realistically paid. Repossessions take a long time but they happen. As mentioned bidx1 for the contentious repossessions and most others just go to the market. Don't be silly

Yes but the bank cant just take the house away its just not that simple. Once mabs can come up with payment that is affordable by the client they more times than not have to accept it. There were very few houses repossessed and that was more due to the owners just giving up. Banks cant even harass now for none payment. It inevitably goes to the courts where they are more or less told if its the family house not to repossess and work out an affordable amount to repay. This is mainly due to the sob story of things like but poor Judy our 10 year old daughter is right beside her school or little Jimmy will no longer be able to do his ballet dancing which is down the road. This is how these always play out.

awec wrote: »

Banks can, and do repossess, of course this is the case. But it is incredibly difficult, and a very long, slow, drawn out process. They'll do it when there's no hope whatsoever that you're ever going to pay the mortgage. Years and years of arrears that have no hope of being cleared.

Even if you don't pay a single cent off your mortgage for an entire year, you're not going to lose your home. You can probably forget about getting any sort of loan or credit again for a long time, but you'll still have your home.

Go back on this forum 4 or 5 years and more, you will see it was a very common complaint about the lack of supply after the last crash. There was tonnes of complaints of the market becoming stuck, banks were hit with bad loans, repossessions weren't happening, new builds just were not being built, people were looking to buy but couldn't.

Look at courts.ie. Numerous repossession cases listed before county registrars all over the country. That is only the ones where there wasn't an agreed sale. Some people have gained they system and strung things out but all have had to do a deal or be put out eventually. A lot of people don't want the hassle of having court proceedings hanging over them for years.

milhous wrote: »

If its possibly for the debtor to pay back then that will be looked at first (providing the debtor doesn't Bury their heads in the sand).It can take years to go through the courts but once an order is in place it can be repossessed whether it's a family home or not.

In saying that if the debtor even tries to pay then the County reg. Or judge will be hesitant to give an order. Its part of the reason for higher interest rates in this country, someone has to pay. If be in favour of a more streamlined process.

Even those who have burried their heads in the sand will eventually after years (I know one person who got away with this for 8 years) be compelled to attend court. I am telling you now once the owner of the property starts with the "my mam is around the corner and needs me as she is in bad health" or "I can not move as little Jimmy's school will be too far way" or the other one that I heard was and is being used more I cant move as its having a detrimental effect on my wife's mental well being. Once a persons well being is brought into it banks are scared stiff they got an absolute kicking over the tracker mortgage scandal due to this and people committing suicide that they would rather let the owner limp along paying what they can and the asset can be theirs once the the owner is dead or the owner can start paying more if they are working again.

Anyone thinking there will be a massive amount of property coming onto the market due to mortgage default is deluded if anything with the further protections put in place for corona it less likely now that a home owner will lose their house then back in the last recession.