Weds 30th early hours + morning: Munster/south Leinster snow and ice

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 11:18am

Very showery airmass too

Humberto Salazar · 29-12-2020 11:20am

Disappointing how even that relatively minor snow event slipped through our fingers. How fickle snow is, number one on the fickle list followed by thunderstorms. Looks like most will have to wait for at least 10 or 14 days for the next shot. It'll stay cold though so maybe that will help with sea and ground temps.

Mount Vesuvius · 29-12-2020 12:19pm

WEATHER WARNINGS
Status: Yellow
Risk of snow accumulations to lower levels.
Status Yellow - Snow/Ice warning for Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Wexford, Wicklow, Offaly, Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo, Cork, Tipperary and Waterford
Met Éireann Weather Warning

Risk of snow accumulations to lower levels.

Valid: 00:00 Wednesday 30/12/2020 to 12:00 Wednesday 30/12/2020

Issued: 11:00 Tuesday 29/12/2020

Hooter23 · 29-12-2020 12:22pm

More rain so...

Mount Vesuvius · 29-12-2020 12:26pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

More rain so...

Yes, rain is coming with a sleet mix but some areas look like getting some snow.

munsterlegend · 29-12-2020 12:27pm

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Yes, rain is coming with a sleet mix but some areas look like getting some snow.

Thought it would be too mild here in Cork but high ground probably get some.

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 12:34pm

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Disappointing how even that relatively minor snow event slipped through our fingers. How fickle snow is, number one on the fickle list followed by thunderstorms. Looks like most will have to wait for at least 10 or 14 days for the next shot. It'll stay cold though so maybe that will help with sea and ground temps.

I find that showery setups provide a lot more snow and limited marginality. I very rarely get snow out of frontal systems.

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 12:41pm

“ Northerly winds will bring further showers of rain, sleet and snow across the north of Northern Ireland as well as northern and western Scotland. Snow accumulations will be generally confined to ground above 100m away from coasts, but some temporary slushy deposits are possible to low levels at times in any heavier showers. 1-3cm is likely to accumulate above 100m, and as much as 5-10cm above 250m, this mostly across high ground of Scotland. Ice will form readily as temperatures quickly fall away rapidly through both Tuesday and Wednesday evenings.”

Met Office warning mentions my area though I feel they could be more optimistic. If it’s frequent it could lie at sea level

Graces7 · 29-12-2020 12:52pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Maybe we need to change the title. I mistook Connaught for Munster. Sorry for the offence Connaught :pac:

SHOCK HORROR! :eek:

Meteorite58 · 29-12-2020 1:06pm

The European 06Z Hi Res models not really making much of this at all, little precipitation and keeping it much further S.

The WRF would tally most with the Met Eireann forecast. Very cold day and night to follow with icy road and footpath conditions being a possible issue.

davidsr20 · 29-12-2020 1:10pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The European 06Z Hi Res models not really making much of this at all, little precipitation and keeping it much further S.

The WRF would tally most with the Met Eireann forecast. Very cold day and night to follow with icy road and footpath conditions being a possible issue.

I’m not very good at reading charts but is east Galway looking good here

Rikand · 29-12-2020 1:10pm

Come on Athlone!

davidsr20 · 29-12-2020 1:11pm

Rikand wrote: »

Come on Athlone!

I’m down that way tomorrow hopefully I’ll see some flakes.

Meteorite58 · 29-12-2020 1:16pm

ECM 06Z rolling out and keeping to the same track and amounts as the 0Z which are far less than the WRF and more S.

I wonder could freezing rain be an issue. Again biggest issue I think would be icy roads and surfaces later Weds.

Meteorite58 · 29-12-2020 1:21pm

davidsr20 wrote: »

I’m not very good at reading charts but is east Galway looking good here

Looks like could get mostly rain and perhaps a sleety mix but not much snow I reckon ( best chance of lower level snow further E Galway if any ) but again looks to freeze early in the evening. Such a marginal event will need to see tonight's charts to see if any shift in track.

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 1:34pm

Is that -8c 850hPa over me tonight? That guarantees snow

Gaoth Laidir · 29-12-2020 2:08pm

Fax for 06Z tomorrow morning. Normally, the best snow is to be found at around 10 o'clock of the direction of travel, so in this case to the low's north or northeast, around the outer edge of the warm sector.

The Icon shows best chance of snow inland southeast at around dawn tomorrow morning. The sounding for around Thomastown shows good precipitation rates (deep saturated layer up to around 700 hPa), with a shallow unsaturated surface layer capable of cooling evaporatively. However it is a very localised set of conditions and in reality for many it may turn out to be just the wrong side of marginal again. Depending on overnight cooling, freezing rain could indeed be possible.

The Knockmealdowns and Comeraghs could be the place to be for snow, though.

polarhullar · 29-12-2020 2:09pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Is that -8c 850hPa over me tonight? That guarantees snow

I hope so! Benevenagh always nearly guaranteed snow, I'll be up tomorrow morning

pauldry · 29-12-2020 2:13pm

I think this will be a wet mess. It's far too windy. It's far too mild. So probably 2 or 3c with wet snow falling where it does. The world is too warm now. Theres no real cold anywhere.

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 2:26pm

Lol don’t be daft. It can snow hard when it wants to.

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 2:30pm

polarhullar wrote: »

I hope so! Benevenagh always nearly guaranteed snow, I'll be up tomorrow morning

Yes. Though showers need to come from the north not the west, as they can fizzle out over Donegal.

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 2:31pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Fax for 06Z tomorrow morning. Normally, the best snow is to be found at around 10 o'clock of the direction of travel, so in this case to the low's north or northeast, around the outer edge of the warm sector.

The Icon shows best chance of snow inland southeast at around dawn tomorrow morning. The sounding for around Thomastown shows good precipitation rates (deep saturated layer up to around 700 hPa), with a shallow unsaturated surface layer capable of cooling evaporatively. However it is a very localised set of conditions and in reality for many it may turn out to be just the wrong side of marginal again. Depending on overnight cooling, freezing rain could indeed be possible.

The Knockmealdowns and Comeraghs could be the place to be for snow, though.

Could you produce two of those soundings for me? Please? One for 55N, 7W at midnight tonight and 12pm tomorrow

munsterlegend · 29-12-2020 2:36pm

pauldry wrote: »

I think this will be a wet mess. It's far too windy. It's far too mild. So probably 2 or 3c with wet snow falling where it does. The world is too warm now. Theres no real cold anywhere.

Snowing away in England readily enough.

Slashermcguirk · 29-12-2020 2:40pm

Where? Certainly been no snow so far this winter in the south or south east of England. Scotland highlands have been the only place to get any real snow yet

quote="munsterlegend;115734389"]Snowing away in England readily enough.[/quote]

munsterlegend · 29-12-2020 2:45pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Where? Certainly been no snow so far this winter in the south or south east of England. Scotland highlands have been the only place to get any real snow yet

quote="munsterlegend;115734389"]Snowing away in England readily enough.

[/quote]

It’s snowing in parts of England such as Gloucestershire Telford Sheffield. Just look at twitter or sky news. It’s not huge amounts but it can snow even if not frigid cold which was the point.

Slashermcguirk · 29-12-2020 2:48pm

I thought you meant proper sticking snow. Sure a lot of counties here have had snow showers. Here is hoping plenty on the way over coming weeks

munsterlegend wrote: »

It’s snowing in parts of England such as Gloucestershire Telford Sheffield. Just look at twitter or sky news. It’s not huge amounts but it can snow even if not frigid cold which was the point.[/quote]

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 2:51pm

The snow started to stick here on the 3rd

munsterlegend · 29-12-2020 2:52pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I thought you meant proper sticking snow. Sure a lot of counties here have had snow showers. Here is hoping plenty on the way over coming weeks

It’s snowing in parts of England such as Gloucestershire Telford Sheffield. Just look at twitter or sky news. It’s not huge amounts but it can snow even if not frigid cold which was the point.

[/quote]

Looks proper sticking snow on twitter!

CirrusBusiness · 29-12-2020 2:54pm

GFS still showing some snow potential for some at least (Carlow looks good) with more in the way of precipitation (snow) during the day. Freezing rain could be an issue in other places and icy surfaces.

RobertKK · 29-12-2020 3:03pm

Feeling very positive for the Castlecomer plateau area.
Should be nice scenic views of snow covered hills when it all clears away.

irishfeen · 29-12-2020 4:12pm

Yellow warning issued for Cork - surely given these charts that’s a bit premature?

lulublue22 · 29-12-2020 4:19pm

irishfeen wrote: »

Yellow warning issued for Cork - surely given these charts that’s a bit premature?

fingers crossed there’s a breach in the snow shield esp the city and surrounding areas - it would be a great end to this crap year ðŸ™

irishfeen · 29-12-2020 4:38pm

lulublue22 wrote: »

fingers crossed there’s a breach in the snow shield esp the city and surrounding areas - it would be a great end to this crap year ðŸ™

Looking very optimistic for that to happen

Mimon · 29-12-2020 4:45pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Looks proper sticking snow on twitter!

Yep, not piles but the niece and nephew in English midlands had enough to build a small snowman in their garden.

lulublue22 · 29-12-2020 4:46pm

irishfeen wrote: »

Looking very optimistic for that to happen

OMG - I’d given up hope and in the long tradition of disappointment after disappointment had this written off as well. Will be stalking this thread like a loon now ðŸ˜„

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 4:47pm

Lots of showers forming to the north of Northern Ireland.

daheff · 29-12-2020 4:54pm

Lads...North Kildare gonna get snow? Please say yes???:D

Snowbiee21 · 29-12-2020 4:54pm

daheff wrote: »

Lads...North Kildare gonna get snow? Please say yes???:D

No

YanSno · 29-12-2020 5:00pm

Another downgrade from ICON it's moving further south, precipitation light and patchy. High grounds Tipperary, Wexford, Waterford and south Kilkenny might get a dusting that's about it.

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 5:07pm

I am no expert but it does not look productive for snow in the Southwest (County Kerry and Cork).

The 850hPa is barely below 0c. Perhaps there could be some back edge snow.

ninebeanrows · 29-12-2020 5:11pm

Latest output has very little precipitation, something keep an eye is potential for a few showers north of the wave and may give a surprise dusting here or there by morning.

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 5:14pm

And the 0c Wet Bulb Level is quite high too. You usually use this as a guide for the Evaporative Cooling potential.

dzer2 · 29-12-2020 5:17pm

RobertKK wrote: »

Feeling very positive for the Castlecomer plateau area.
Should be nice scenic views of snow covered hills when it all clears away.

Pleasant to look at maybe

Rough to work in

Hopefully not too much

daheff · 29-12-2020 5:18pm

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

No

dammit.. .buzzkiller :P

Jim Gazebo · 29-12-2020 5:25pm

Hate to be the one but meant to go to mitchelstown from cork in the morning will I leave it till Thursday? Last thing I want is to be stuck in snow :O

Jim Gazebo · 29-12-2020 5:26pm

Jim Gazebo wrote: »

Hate to be the one but meant to go to mitchelstown from cork in the morning will I leave it till Thursday? Last thing I want is to be stuck in snow :O

And may I add stuck in mitchelstown of all places

Kermit.de.frog · 29-12-2020 5:47pm

Favoured locations look like a narrow band of counties roughly Wexford up across to Galway for a dusting or more.

In to now cast with this I reckon.

What happens, happens.

Plenty of more opportunities in the next couple of weeks by the looks of things even if you miss out again.

Cluedo Monopoly · 29-12-2020 5:51pm

Re timing - am I right in saying this snow event will be tomorrow morning (6am to 12 noon)?

Gaoth Laidir · 29-12-2020 5:57pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Could you produce two of those soundings for me? Please? One for 55N, 7W at midnight tonight and 12pm tomorrow

12Z ICON for 00Z and 12Z tomorrow. Location altitude 129 m amsl, wbt a little too high (1.4 & 1.0, respectively).

Nqp15hhu · 29-12-2020 6:03pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

12Z ICON for 00Z and 12Z tomorrow. Location altitude 129 m amsl, wbt a little too high (1.4 & 1.0, respectively).

Ok thank you. It looks like the conditions are ok tomorrow during the day based on the sounding.

Temps are on their way down now already so I guess it’s a case of wait and see.

Weds 30th early hours + morning: Munster/south Leinster snow and ice

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