Summer 2019 - General Discussion

So going by the above analogues, you would think Summer 2019 will be warmer and drier than average after a mixed June. As high pressure would be a strong influence with temperatures above average through July and August, there would be some concerns of returning to drought conditions.

Do I think highly of these analogues? Kind of yes. The June analogue has some similarities to the outlook for early June 2019 in the medium range right now, as the -NAO is not expected to go away any time soon making it difficult for warmer conditions to occur especially for Ireland. The most recent cooler than average June was 2015 so I think we're due one. I think July has a fair chance of verifying with warmer and drier conditions. Consecutive warm or hot Julys historically aren't too unusual - like 1975/76, 1983/84, 1989-91, 1995/96, 2005/06, 2013/14. I think August has a good chance of verifying too provided the atmosphere remains stable and something unique or a disturbance does not occur, like a sudden change in ENSO or the North Atlantic SST profile intensifying to favour -NAO for example. This is the same with July to some extent too.

Models are all extremely mixed for Summer 2019 so they offer very little help for the forecast.

There is almost a tripole developed through May in the North Atlantic which is an important indicator for Winter, not so much for Summer. But I wonder if this could have an impact on the Summer as it favours -NAO which in Summer usually results in cool and wet conditions (not always as positioning of blocking differs every time). The infamous Summers from 2007 to 2012 all had -NAO, although only one year had a visible tripole in the North Atlantic during May - 2010. In Spring 2018, a horseshoe shape of cold SST anomalies had developed in the North Atlantic Ocean which was theorised to increase the chance of a strong Azores High through Summer 2018 and thus increase the risk of a hot season. This was indeed the case and there was record breaking +NAO, unprecedented even in recorded history. However, after researching for Summer 2019 and using the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic through May 2019, I'm not so sure on this theory as Mays 1992 and 1993 had a very similar profile (as did May 1976 which I used as a primary baseline for Summer 2018) to May 2018. I could not find a great match to May 2019 in the archive in terms of North Atlantic SSTs but closest matches I could get were May 1954, May 1980, May 1995, May 1997, May 2002, May 2003 and May 2004. Quite a mix of summers here! Summer 1954, 1980 and 2002 were all very dull and the latter was relatively warm (due to August, whilst June and July were quite cool) and wet. Summer 1997 had a poor June, a mild/warm and mostly dry July, a hot and exceptionally wet August in the south. Summer 2003 had a hot August - June and July were also warm but thundery. Summer 2004 had a warm June, cool and unsettled July and a very warm but wet August. I don't think I need to say Summer 1995 which was a drought summer. Notice that 5 of the 7 years here had warm or hot Augusts whilst two (1995 and 2003) were very dry and two (1997 and 2004) were very wet, the other (2002) was quite dry but not exceptionally so. In contrast, Summers 1954 and 1980 were among the poorest of the 20th century.

ENSO is expected to neutralise this summer which in theory should have little impact but sudden changes in oceanic or atmospheric behaviour could give major impacts on the season especially later, and this forecast could go as a bust.

So, overall I am going to go for a warmer than average summer but no 2018. The only way I can see us getting close to or beating 2018 would be if my analogue charts for July and August were to verify exactly as shown above which especially for July are extreme scenarios so unlikely. I think the summer will get off to a slow start but improve as the season goes on, compared to Summer 2018 which started off very high and got more and more benign. It's not too often that a very warm/dry July AND August occur simultaneously (for example, 1955, 1976, 1983, 1990, 1995) in Ireland but I think 2019 has a chance.

To summarise month by month:

June - A relatively cool and unsettled month but no significant deviations from average.

July - A warmer than average month with the potential for some very warm weather. Generally anticyclonic.

August - Much warmer than average but the ongoing risk of an unstable atmosphere resulting in variable rainfall.

As always, long range forecasting is unreliable and not to be taken seriously so this forecast is just for fun. Thanks for reading. We'll see how she goes.

Gonzo wrote: »

If the summer ends up entirely pear shaped, at least I'll have a few weeks of sun in Spain to look forward to in July.

Lucky you. Have my Leaving Cert exams starting this Wednesday and won't be going anywhere on holiday this summer. If I catch a warm spell in July or August, I'm hoping to go to the west.

Trying to get a holiday to the Alps or Iceland (for northern lights) next winter.

Artane2002 wrote: »

Thankfully I escaped all the awful weather in June. I remember there was a brilliant spell of weather at the end of May 2016 lasting until the start of June with unbroken sunny skies apart from a cloudy start on the 1st of June. I went on holidays on the 4th and it was cloudy in Dublin (the end of the spell?). Then if I remember correctly, I think I read here about thunderstorms in Ireland around the 6th or 7th.

Yeah, had some lightning flashes on night of the 6th June 2016 - last I had spotted here until 27th May 2018. Was a disappointing spell for Dublin to be honest. 28th to 31st May were very good though.