Light Snow - Overnight Wed/Thu 6th/7th January 2021

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 9:33pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

There's not much scope for evaporative cooling tonight. It's all or nothing.

Magilligan is also reading 2.1 with a dewpoint of 0.2. Cloud 7-okta at 10,000 ft, 2-okta at 3600 ft.

Why not? Some of the models show rain turning to snow about 11pm.

There is not much wind also.

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 9:38pm

Danno wrote: »

Could possibly happen, but what tells you this, or is it just a hunch?

Because I think it will start as rain. I have had these sorts of events before and it always starts as rain before turning to wet snow. Even if it’s cold.

Kermit.de.frog · 06-01-2021 9:40pm

It's slow progress but a bit more momentum.

This will be all snow in the midlands and east falling on frozen surfaces so i'm 100% sure there will be a least a dusting here by the morning.

06-01-2021 9:40pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Three stations to watch to see if evaporative cooling takes place.

Its starting to turn a bit to sleet and snow now in East Donegal,west Tyrone parts of Leitrim and on high ground in sligo

Monkeynut · 06-01-2021 9:41pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's slow progress but a bit more momentum.

This will be all snow in the midlands and east falling on frozen surfaces so i'm 100% sure there will be a least a dusting here by the morning.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/radar/lastsnowradar_uk.gif

how long till it gets to dublin airport? lol

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 9:42pm

AuntySnow wrote: »

Its starting to turn a bit to sleet and snow now in East Donegal,west Tyrone parts of Leitrim and on high ground in sligo

Yeah it’s a pity that cloud came in ahead of it. Most of us would’ve seen snow. Now I’m not convinced.

If warm advection doesn’t occur that could change.

Rebelbrowser · 06-01-2021 9:45pm

Scotland looks great on the radar. Ba$tards.

Monkeynut · 06-01-2021 9:46pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Scotland looks great on the radar. Ba$tards.

They're trying to leave them. Leave it out. :pac::pac::pac:

But they'd make ya jealous. Its just proper pink. They eat the bread we get the crumbs.

Danno · 06-01-2021 9:48pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Scotland looks great on the radar. Ba$tards.

Most of that appears to be in the highlands. Such a waste of perfectly good snow! :pac:

Kermit.de.frog · 06-01-2021 9:48pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Yeah it’s a pity that cloud came in ahead of it. Most of us would’ve seen snow. Now I’m not convinced.

Most will see snow. Those near northwest, west and north coasts will not because not only is there a marine layer there but the temperatures are not quite low enough anyway in the layer just above that.

Very narrow margins.

a bit like this

tenor.gif?itemid=4544386

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 9:50pm

This app gives me a 60% chance of snow. http://www.sciencebits.com/SnowProbCalc?calc=yes

I still think it could start out as light rain.

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 9:51pm

All three Donegal stations down 0.2c

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 9:54pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Most will see snow. Those near northwest, west and north coasts will not because not only is there a marine layer there but the temperatures are not quite low enough anyway in the layer just above that.

Very narrow margins.

a bit like this

I will wait and see.

Oneiric 3 · 06-01-2021 9:56pm

HIRLAM prep forecast (doesn't show type) for the overnight and tomorrow period:

https://i.imgur.com/7qv8c2X.mp4

Any rain that falls here will very likely freeze on impact from that front.Nightmare scenario for overnight and early morning commuters.

Danno · 06-01-2021 10:02pm

Currently -3.6c in south Laois

eastmayo · 06-01-2021 10:02pm

Snowing lightly the last 20min near knock Airport

06-01-2021 10:05pm

Danno wrote: »

Currently -3.6c in south Laois

Nudging 0 now in Arklow in cloud with a slight sea breeze!

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 10:05pm

There is a layer of ice here despite the 1c temp

kerrycork13 · 06-01-2021 10:06pm

-2 and clear here
Rathmore east kerry north cork border. 150 asl

Kermit.de.frog · 06-01-2021 10:06pm

Latest temperatures

mumo3 · 06-01-2021 10:14pm

Reading - 2 here in Clondalkin.... Light breeze

pad199207 · 06-01-2021 10:18pm

-3.5°c in KE

tmcdlk · 06-01-2021 10:18pm

Light rain in Ramelton , Donegal

giveitholly · 06-01-2021 10:21pm

-3.8°C here in tipp at the moment

munsterlegend · 06-01-2021 10:23pm

kerrycork13 wrote: »

-2 and clear here
Rathmore east kerry north cork border. 150 asl

Rain/sleet on roads around here in early morning would be a nightmare.

munsterlegend · 06-01-2021 10:24pm

giveitholly wrote: »

-3.8°C here in tipp at the moment

Are you high up there?

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 10:25pm

Temperatures appear to be rising in Donegal and Derry. So not very hopeful.

Not sure how it’s so cold down south. They are under the same cloud as us.

I think this one might end up being restricted to Omagh southwards.

Danno · 06-01-2021 10:25pm

Temperatures nose-diving. Currently -4.1c in south Laois under clear sky.

http://www.laoisweather.com/images/temp.png

Speak Now · 06-01-2021 10:29pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

There is a layer of ice here despite the 1c temp

Ground frost before air frost.

Speak Now · 06-01-2021 10:30pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Are you high up there?

More likely a frost hollow.

Danno · 06-01-2021 10:31pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Not sure how it’s so cold down south.

Clear sky, the high cloud hasn't reached here.

giveitholly · 06-01-2021 10:32pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Are you high up there?

About 120m

kerrycork13 · 06-01-2021 10:32pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Rain/sleet on roads around here in early morning would be a nightmare.

Ha I think it will be snow but it might break up that's the biggest problem

Gonzo · 06-01-2021 10:35pm

very severe frost here right now. Not expecting much from this event here in Meath, maybe some snizzle if even that.

pad199207 · 06-01-2021 10:37pm

Gonzo wrote: »

very severe frost here right now. Not expecting much from this event here in Meath, maybe some snizzle if even that.

Is it too cold for snow? :rolleyes:

Larbre34 · 06-01-2021 10:41pm

There's no energy in this. Any light wintry precip is evaporating aloft. All I expect to see happen is the front lightly cloud over as it goes, which will take the edge off the frost and result in very unremarkable morning conditions.

Kermit.de.frog · 06-01-2021 10:44pm

Gonzo wrote: »

very severe frost here right now. Not expecting much from this event here in Meath, maybe some snizzle if even that.

It will be a dusting like the other morning i'd imagine. Not expecting much here either.

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 10:45pm

I just drove up to the freezing level. It is 600 feet. The lapse rates are very poor. So with the SW winds I am calling it a bust.

I make the following predictions for here, initially. And expect the levels to rise gradually.

Snow falling line: 400-500 feet
Snow lying line: 800 feet

I was looking over at Derry where the precipitation is supposed to be and it is dry looking over there so the virga thing is happening again..

I’m not sure where the Met office is getting the confidence on this one.

(I will get my snow fix when we get a proper cold spell sometime in January and February. And will most likely do better than the people who will get a dusting out of this.)

Speak Now · 06-01-2021 10:51pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I just drove up to the freezing level. It is 600 feet. The lapse rates are very poor. So with the SW winds I am calling it a bust.

Snow falling line: 400-500 feet
Snow lying line: 800 feet

I was looking over at Derry where the precipitation is supposed to be and it is dry looking over there so the virga thing is happening again..

I’m not sure where the Met office is getting the confidence on this one.

I will get my snow fix when we get a proper cold spell sometime in January and February. And will most likely do better than the people who will get a dusting out of this.

Met Eireann gave rain and sleet up north/ north west. What did Met office give? The lads did warn you this morning about your location not being ideal but you took it as a slight.

highdef · 06-01-2021 10:53pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Not sure how it’s so cold down south. They are under the same cloud as us.
.

Further south is not being influenced by the marine air compared to areas near the coast in the North and West plus further south stayed clear for longer so got a head start on getting a good drop on temperature.

The temperatures and precipitation that you are getting at the moment are almost exactly what the models have been showing, ECM in my case. That's why I was saying earlier that snow was far from a certainty for you at your location but you insisted that I was incorrect. Things may change for you but as it stands, falling non sticking snow for you is most likely to be as wintry as it'll get and even if you do get falling snow, it's quite likely to be a wintry mix of precipitation during the passage of the front.

Gaoth Laidir · 06-01-2021 10:54pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I just drove up to the freezing level. It is 600 feet. The lapse rates are very poor. So with the SW winds I am calling it a bust.

I make the following predictions for here, initially. And expect the levels to rise gradually.

Snow falling line: 400-500 feet
Snow lying line: 800 feet

I was looking over at Derry where the precipitation is supposed to be and it is dry looking over there so the virga thing is happening again..

I’m not sure where the Met office is getting the confidence on this one.

(I will get my snow fix when we get a proper cold spell sometime in January and February. And will most likely do better than the people who will get a dusting out of this.)

Did you not see what I posted earlier, especially for you? Snow not expected in the Derry area until midnight.

Derry Eglinton

Snow
Issued at: Wed 06 Jan 2021 - 17:36 UTC
Valid from: Thu 07 Jan 2021 - 00:00 UTC
Valid to: Thu 07 Jan 2021 - 03:00 UTC
SNOW (OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED) MAY OCCUR AT THE AIRFIELD.SLIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 0-1CM. SNOW TYPE WET. VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 600M IN THE SNOWFALL.

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 10:54pm

Speak Now wrote: »

Met Eireann gave rain and sleet up north/ north west. What did Met office give? The lads did warn you this morning about your location not being ideal but you took it as a slight.

I was going on the charts which did show snow for me.

The Met Office have a warning out for fairly widespread snow but I am not seeing it. The precipitation isn’t heavy and appears to be evaporating.

Nqp15hhu · 06-01-2021 10:59pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Did you not see what I posted earlier, especially for you? Snow not expected in the Derry area until midnight.

I don’t see it. The temps are rising in donegal.. if there was evaporative cooling maybe.

Anyway I will wait

munsterlegend · 06-01-2021 11:05pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I don’t see it. The temps are rising in donegal.. if there was evaporative cooling maybe.

Anyway I will wait

That’s all you can do. It’s weather and it will do what it does.

Gaoth Laidir · 06-01-2021 11:05pm

Heavy blowing snow at Derry Eglinton now

METAR EGAE 062150Z AUTO 07004KT 0200 +BLSN M01/M02 Q1022=

munsterlegend · 06-01-2021 11:06pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Heavy blowing snow at Derry Eglington now

You said midnight? What’s going on GL?!

nacho libre · 06-01-2021 11:06pm

Cloudy with the temperature hovering at 0. I expect it will rise soon

Gaoth Laidir · 06-01-2021 11:07pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

You said midnight? What’s going on GL?!

06-01-2021 11:09pm

Rain, Castlebar

Kermit.de.frog · 06-01-2021 11:11pm

6541 wrote: »

Rain, Castlebar

Is it sticking? :P

Light Snow - Overnight Wed/Thu 6th/7th January 2021

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