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18-05-2019, 00:56   #76
sdanseo
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-3 uppers in June. If ever we needed more justification to emigrate.
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18-05-2019, 14:48   #77
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Originally Posted by sdanseo View Post
-3 uppers in June. If ever we needed more justification to emigrate.
final week of May and into the first week of June is looking very much like mid autumn, possibly very cold for the time of year and unsettled, wouldn't be surprised to see some ground frost or wintry showers on high ground if the ensembles come off with -3 or -4 uppers possible.

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18-05-2019, 16:53   #78
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Certainly trending cool out to the end of the ECM 0Z run.







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21-05-2019, 09:59   #79
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Just wondering how people see things shaping up for early June? The charts look cool and unsettled to my uneducated eye.

This time last year we started to see some great (warm and settled) weather appearing on the charts. Hoping for a repeat but not too hopeful. Here's MT's weather from this time last year-

Tuesday, 22 May, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, although rather cloudy near some south-facing coastlines. Warmer with highs about 18 to 21 C for most, 14 to 17 C east coast and south coast. Slight chance of a very isolated and brief shower or thundershower during the afternoon, most likely in west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, mild. Lows 6 to 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Mostly sunny, warm in western and central counties, cooler near east and south coasts. Highs about 19 to 22 C for most, and 15 to 18 C in some cooler coastal districts.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, warm, scattered showers developing mostly in midlands, inland south. These will bring 2 to 5 mm rainfalls to some locations but many will remain dry. Lows 6 to 10 C and highs 16 to 21 C.

FRIDAY ... Hazy sunshine, isolated showers possible. Lows 8 to 12 C and highs 17 to 23 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will see an increase in cloud leading to some passing showers or thunderstorms in light to moderate southeast winds. Except where raining, it should be quite warm although sea breezes may cool a few coastal locations. Highs both days could reach 23 or 24 C (central and western counties in particular).

OUTLOOK ... This warm spell keeps on going about one day longer each new day of guidance, but it will of course eventually break down some time, possibly beyond the first of June though. As the forecast shows, it won't be perfectly dry and sunny all the time, a few minor disturbances will continue as long as the warmth persists, and the eventual breakdown seems likely to be a rather cool northerly spell of unknown duration.
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21-05-2019, 10:23   #80
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The pattern we're in at the moment is a bit of a "col" with pressure tending to weaken somewhat day by day over Greenland and the NAO attempting to go more toward a positive phase. This results in a strengthening of the Azores High later this week and the westerlies returning. However, both the GFS and ECM want to retrogress the Azores High up to Greenland again this time next week forming another northern blocking feature and sending the NAO into negativity (-NAO has dominated this May).

Retrogression of high pressure to Greenland will result in cool and unsettled conditions to end May if current models were to verify. This scenario is very well supported in the ECM clusters with a trough of below average heights parking itself over us and to our east drawing in a northwesterly to northerly flow of air. There'd be plenty of showers I would have thought with this. Mind you, ECM clusters don't look overly unsettled for Ireland as they do for the east of the UK.

Daytime temperatures at best in the low teens, a far cry from last year when we would have been in high teens to low or mid 20s!





Very long way out so just for fun. GFS has been consistently running with building high pressure somewhere near us during the first week of June. The positioning of the high pressure would be important to knowing what air mass and temperatures we would likely get. Some have had the high pressure building to our east drawing in a southerly to southeasterly airflow - temperatures in the east of Ireland would likely be low 20s. Some have had the high pressure build through us which with a relatively cool end to May wouldn't be particularly warm at first as warm air is not established. However, we're very much nearing the time of year when the sun is at its strongest so there would be a case of the sun making it feel much warmer than what it is.



Currently, there is zero support for the GFS in the ECM clusters on having this anticyclonic or warm first week of June 2019 so it's extremely unlikely.

For now, it looks like we'll be having a very different end to May 2019 compared to May 2018.

Last edited by sryanbruen; 21-05-2019 at 16:08.
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21-05-2019, 15:37   #81
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If the Daily Star days this it has to be right !!!!!!!!!!!!!

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/lat...t-temperatures

Yesterday it was a heatwave today its doom and gloom, does anyone ever question when they put out stories like these.

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/lat...oliday-weekend

Last edited by Storm 10; 22-05-2019 at 15:51.
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21-05-2019, 16:14   #82
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For what its worth...Its usually miles off but didn't do that badly last summer


https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather...ecast/70008315
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21-05-2019, 16:33   #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patneve2 View Post
For what its worth...Its usually miles off but didn't do that badly last summer


https://m.accuweather.com/en/weather...ecast/70008315
Sounds like a situation with HP to centred to our southeast but strong enough to influence us and LP to the northwest to me. Could be wrong though.

Last edited by Artane2002; 21-05-2019 at 16:39.
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22-05-2019, 11:52   #84
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Impossible to know what this Summer will bring but surely cyclonic can be ruled out at least in the medium term.
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22-05-2019, 11:58   #85
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I can see this being a typical Irish summer, with some short lived dry, warm spells but plenty of standard Atlantic fair keeping Ireland cooler and more unsettled than any other part of Europe. I am not expecting anything like last summer.

London and the south-east of England could get a very warm or even hot summer with HP from the continent often clinging on in those areas with Ireland and north-western half of the UK under more of an Atlantic influence.

We shall see what happens.
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24-05-2019, 21:27   #86
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ECM showing ridging developing up over Ireland with the Jet tracking to the N of Ireland at the end of next week, getting milder again from around Thurs and looking like Sat and Sun giving temps into the 20's if it were to happen like this.

Showing us under the influence of HP centered over Europe with Atlantic weather trying to make inroads but signs of HP building again at the end of the run around Monday week.


In the unreliable time frame though with lots of moving parts.











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25-05-2019, 15:48   #87
sdanseo
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A long way off yet, but dare we think it: Leaving Cert weather!

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25-05-2019, 15:51   #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sdanseo View Post
A long way off yet, but dare we think it: Leaving Cert weather!
Hope not! Preferably have such weather after 20th June!

Post incoming on the runs this morning.
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25-05-2019, 16:00   #89
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There was some hints from the GFS in a previous post I did on a warmer and more settled start to June but there was zero support for it within the ECM ensembles so it was a very unlikely scenario. However, many signals have now shifted towards this outcome with high pressure building near us through the first week of June ushering in warmer temperatures and dry weather.

GFS 0z became warmer and warmer and more anticyclonic as the run went on with a big area of high pressure building near the second week of June and easterly winds.

The GFS 06z was a mostly anticyclonic run for the start of June (moreso for the first week than the 0z as high pressure is closer at that time frame) with high pressure just to our southeast drawing in a warm southeasterly flow which becomes southerly later for a time as low pressure attempts to attack from the west. We wouldn't be talking about heatwave standard conditions with the 06z (compared to the end of the 0z which was indicative of 2018) but high teens and low 20s over Ireland for a few days, reasonable spells of hazy sunshine too.





The ECM 0z shows the high for Ireland more as a weak ridge with westerlies keeping things humid and relatively cooler temperature wise. Similar to its 12z yesterday that Meteorite58 posted about above.



In terms of the ECM clusters, they look extremely similar to the ECM operational actually with westerly winds keeping Ireland cloudier and cooler than the south of the UK.



Warmer than average conditions are favoured during the first week of June from the GEFS 06z although still quite a few going cool. Looks changeable in terms of rainfall however.



Signals have certainly shifted towards the warmer and drier side for early June but still maybe not so clear as you'd expect given 1st June is 7 days away, as the ECM looks more changeable and cooler.
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27-05-2019, 16:27   #90
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Looks like the warmer, settled weather is off the cards going by latest models, with the ridge staying well to our southeast and resulting in some fine conditions over England for a time from Friday 31st to Sunday 2nd. Ireland looks humid and cloudy with high teens temperatures at best generally during the period and quickly going back to mid teens (13-16c) through the first week of June. ECM has consistently been showing such a scenario (including its ensembles), compared to the GFS which is now in line with the ECM.





One reason why this ridge from the Azores looks very brief and fails to build towards Ireland is due to northern blocking continuing. Latest GEFS show the NAO staying negative through the first half of June, indicative of Greenland blocking and a weak Azores High.

The North Atlantic SSTs are trending towards those favoured for -NAO with a tripole setting up it looks like (good for cold and snow in Winter but in Summer usually means cold and wet). Probably an spin off effect from this very blocked May in the North Atlantic.



EC clusters from the 0z do not show much change to the pattern by the second week of June with conditions staying cool and unsettled. Yes, options #1 and #3 here at +336 hrs away look warmer but still on the unsettled side for Ireland particularly option #1 which would be thundery I would think.

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