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09-05-2019, 16:01   #61
nacho libre
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I'm still waiting on a half respectable thunderstorm since 1985.
Did you not get a decent thunderstorm during May 2001? The storms came all the way up from Biscay. It would be great to see something similar this summer!
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09-05-2019, 16:03   #62
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To get back on topic..

Models still showing the same thing for next week with Ireland having dominance from high pressure for at least a few days. Things start differing between models by this time next week however.

The GFS wants to retrogress the high to the north and northwest with low pressure invading from the Atlantic forming deep lows running on a southerly tracking jet stream. Looks pretty awful and quite a different run from the previous few following the lovely weather of next week.

The ECM attempts to retrogress the high at the very end of its run but it keeps pressure generally high over us.

EC clusters from this morning's 0z run want to retrogress the high a bit to our northwest by the end of next week and into the weekend or following week but not to the extent that the GFS 12z shows so low pressure systems do not affect Ireland here. It stays dry but maybe a tilt to the wind in it being more of a northeasterly direction so be cooler particularly in eastern regions.
Eeek. Trying to interpret this. Not a full week of sunshine then? Cooler by next Saturday?
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09-05-2019, 17:16   #63
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Did you not get a decent thunderstorm during May 2001? The storms came all the way up from Biscay. It would be great to see something similar this summer!
I remember getting one thunderstorm around then, but it was nothing spectacular and only lasted about 45 minutes in the middle of the afternoon.
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09-05-2019, 17:53   #64
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I remember getting one thunderstorm around then, but it was nothing spectacular and only lasted about 45 minutes in the middle of the afternoon.
Strange.
We got a great one at night. There was impressive fork lightining all over the place for over an hour.
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09-05-2019, 17:57   #65
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Eeek. Trying to interpret this. Not a full week of sunshine then? Cooler by next Saturday?
High pressure will dominate the scene through Sunday to Wednesday at least next week with easterly to southeasterly winds being the main influence. This will result in sunny spells and a lot of dry weather. Coolest conditions on eastern coasts with maximum temperatures ranging between 13-16c depending on if the wind is onshore or offshore. West will be best in terms of temperatures with 17-19c not out of the woods. The strong May sunshine may result in a place or two scraping 20c based on current guidance.

The trend of the models is for the anticyclone to retrogress to our northwest by later next week into the weekend with lower pressure nearing to our south. Winds will continue to be of an easterly influence but a tilt will mean the origin of the air will change. This is a complex pattern as the low pressure could correspond to the northern blocking with a trough right underneath it and go through us on a southerly tracking jet stream (i.e. rain band after rain band, something that Summer 2012 was infamous for) - more on this in a bit below. Or the northern blocking could have some influence by sending a ridge down to Ireland and keeping the low pressure systems to our south and or affecting southern/SE England instead. The thing to keep in mind with this is that whilst it could stay dry with some influence from ridging, it would be cooler than average temperature wise.

Signals looking very dodgy for the end of May and start of June with this northern blocking over Greenland that models want to setup. Beijing Climate Centre model showing a very unsettled and cool (maybe even cold) period to end May and into much of June. The pattern it shows is about as far as you can get from a warm and dry scenario. Looking at other long range models, it seems to be on its own at the moment in going to that extent of a poor pattern. CanSIPS shows a non-descript June as does CFS if a little more on the poor side as there is some blocking to our north.

Last edited by sryanbruen; 09-05-2019 at 20:36.
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09-05-2019, 17:59   #66
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It is starting to look like 2012 again. I thought we would get a pattern of the azores high ridging in, with brief Atlantic interruptions, but that seems to be the wrong call. Still it's early days to write off the whole summer at this point!
Yeah, I share the same sentiments there with you that it's looking very 2012-esque.

Early days yes, the season hasn't even started meteorologically speaking. Quite difficult to remember that given the charts was shown today. To put a bit of positivity, latest CanSIPS and CFS look nice and settled or warm for July and August but of course, that doesn't really matter as it's just for fun considering they're long range models.
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09-05-2019, 18:14   #67
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Yeah, I share the same sentiments there with you that it's looking very 2012-esque.

Early days yes, the season hasn't even started meteorologically speaking. Quite difficult to remember that given the charts was shown today. To put a bit of positivity, latest CanSIPS and CFS look nice and settled or warm for July and August but of course, that doesn't really matter as it's just for fun considering they're long range models.
Well we were promised an epic winter according to many with all the charts pointing towards great potential for cold and snow. We know how that turned out.

No point reading into too much just yet.
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09-05-2019, 18:26   #68
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Well we were promised an epic winter according to many with all the charts pointing towards great potential for cold and snow. We know how that turned out.

No point reading into too much just yet.
This Winter, there was blocking but there was also an Azores High very evident (not good for cold and snow) as the Atlantic sea surface temperature profile favoured its influence which was always going to be one issue with the Winter as highlighted in my forecast on 27 November. I still have yet to do my review on the forecast and the season.

February 2019 was an extreme event with a pattern that was perfect for record-breaking warm temperatures in the UK and some parts of Ireland that I don't think anyone could have really anticipated.

In a recent analysis, it was shown that there seems to be some sort of bias towards -NAO in these models. This could be similar to what is happening right now with this signalled extensive northern blocking for the end of May and going into June. However, what one has to keep in mind here is that this is the time of year when northern blocking is most frequent on average - before the European monsoon season gets going or as touted often the "Return of the Westerlies" in the second half of June onwards.

May 2018 had an anomalous +NAO setup in contrast to May 2019 so far which continued on throughout the Summer, the Autumn and the Winter. It was an exceptional pronounced period of +NAO with record breaking sigma (despite the high frequency of easterly winds from May to July 2018 which are often associated with -NAO). The opposite might happen this year? I wouldn't be surprised with the events that have already occurred in 2019 like Feb 2019 warm spell vs Feb/Mar 2018 Beast from the East or May Day Bank Holiday Weekend warm 2018 vs cold 2019.

https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/statu...24267460485120
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12-05-2019, 14:40   #69
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Any update lads
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12-05-2019, 15:06   #70
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Any update lads
next 5 days looks decent. Unsettled and cool from next weekend with the final third of May more like what we had over the past week, maybe not quite as cold as that tho.
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12-05-2019, 20:46   #71
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next 5 days looks decent. Unsettled and cool from next weekend with the final third of May more like what we had over the past week, maybe not quite as cold as that tho.
Cheers
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12-05-2019, 21:53   #72
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next 5 days looks decent. Unsettled and cool from next weekend with the final third of May more like what we had over the past week, maybe not quite as cold as that tho.
Much rain forecast after thurs or will it just be showers?
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12-05-2019, 22:47   #73
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Much rain forecast after thurs or will it just be showers?
mostly showers, looks like east winds for the remainder of the month, plenty of showers and temps low to mid teens for the most part, possibly lasting into first week of June as well. The next few days could well be the warmest/driest conditions of this month.
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13-05-2019, 00:14   #74
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Not much rain signalled for Sligo really till June. Could be about 30 or 40mm by then here. Ground very hard here but no drought as surrounding towns hv had showers and run off has rivers fairly ok though in boyle today some of their river was completely dry. Also on way to Strandhill the other day there was cracks in the soil like last year.

I think we are going to have another drier than normal Summer with short wet periods. Nothing like 2007 to 2012 up here i would hope.

Augusts seem to be very wet though.

Anyways going on topic the plus 120 charts dont show huge rain but next runs might bring wetter spells .

So far I would summarize 2019 in Sligo

January Cold at the very end with decent snow the rest blaaah
February A very mild month. No frost
March 2nd Wettest March on record
April Dry and warm at Easter
May so far Very Dry but wet in many other locations in Ireland
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14-05-2019, 22:32   #75
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Cool charts from the ECM 12Z with a Northerly flow plunging down over the country at the end of it's run. Nothing definite but just a marker to see if a cool trend continues to show up over the coming runs.





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