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Wintry spell forecasting discussion - 23/11/2010 onwards

245

Comments

  • #52
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    The most likely solution is that on the ECM. There is a risk in that the deeper it gets the bigger the warm sector but atm models suggest this should not be a big issue. In fact we seem to be reverting back to a colder scenario. Basically as long as the center is somewhere close to the Southern UK we have nothing to worry about. That could change but very unlikely at this stage.


  • #53
    forkassed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 311 ✭✭forkassed


    A comparison from last year...

    Note.. SST's 4 degrees warmer and we are 3 weeks before the shortest day of the year instead of 2 weeks after it. Obviously the snowfall will not be as widespread :(

    This is what came of the 1st chart

    Ireanduksnow.gif

    55idl.png


    and for this weekend....



    Rtavn842.png


  • #54
    Rougies
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,682 ✭✭✭Rougies


    forkassed wrote: »
    A comparison from last year...

    Note.. SST's 4 degrees warmer and we are 3 weeks before the shortest day of the year instead of 2 weeks after it. Obviously the snowfall will not be as widespread frown.gif

    I think the higher SSTs could work out for the better, especially if the windspeeds are fairly brisk - negating sea surface modification of air temps.

    The temperature difference between the lake (Irish Sea) and the 850 millibar level is usually greater than 13° C for significant lake-effect snow to occur.
    (from Trogdors OP link on lake effect snow, and I'd like to note that fairly decent snow can fall with less than 13c difference!)

    I don;t think there's much difference between 3 weeks before winter solstice and two weeks after in terms of snowfall potential once the right atmospheric conditions are in place. The sun is at about the same strength. Ground temps might hinder snow sticking, but they'll fall pretty quickly anyway ;)


  • #55
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Great 0Z ECM. Cold and with snow potential all the way out in FI to 240 hours. :D


  • #56
    roryc1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    Good morning Maq, ECM looK's great, percip look good too, I have a feeling it will be busy around here today. :)


  • #57
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    roryc1 wrote: »
    Good morning Maq, ECM looK's great, percip look good too, I have a feeling it will be busy around here today. :)

    And what about the GFS at 384 hours, deja vu? :p


  • #58
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Headline : The weather will remain very cold up to and over the weekend and into next week also. Very cold Thursday night with frost setting in quickly after dark. But a spell of rain and sleet is expected to move down from the northwest and may well be preceded by a little snow in central and eastern areas. Lowest temperatures zero to -2 C. However it should clear again by morning. Friday will be cold and breezy with a mixture of cloudy spells and bright periods. Some showers too, mainly on northern and western coasts, where a few could be wintry inland on high ground. Top temperatures just 3 to 5 C., in a fresh north to northwesterly wind. The best of the dry, sunny weather will be in the Midlands and South. Cold overnight Friday night, with some frost and icy patches. Some wintry showers too, these mainly in northern and eastern coastal fringes, where some sleet and snow is possible inland and especially over high ground. Very cold and breezy over Saturday and Sunday with frosty nights. Cold by day also with temperatures only in low single figures. A lot of dry bright weather, but eastern parts of the country and parts of the north coast, will have some rain, hail and sleet showers, with some snow likely away from coastal fringes over Leinster.

    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/


  • #59
    irish1967
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    ch750536 wrote: »
    car parked under light so I can write 'boards' on back window - check

    I think this should be compulsory !!


  • #60
    eskimocat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Getting worried that all we will see around here is frost on top of wet wintery conditions, followed by the odd bit of sleet. Meantime up the nearest mountain, there will be lovely white powdery snow :rolleyes:


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  • #61
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    eskimocat wrote: »
    Getting worried that all we will see around here is frost on top of wet wintery conditions, followed by the odd bit of sleet. Meantime up the nearest mountain, there will be lovely white powdery snow :rolleyes:

    Still about 24 hours away from the first blast of the -8 upper air.


  • #62
    rhonin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭rhonin


    eskimocat wrote: »
    Getting worried that all we will see around here is frost on top of wet wintery conditions, followed by the odd bit of sleet. Meantime up the nearest mountain, there will be lovely white powdery snow :rolleyes:

    It's the damn snow shield we have placed here!


  • #63
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    That shortwave is further south at 36 hours on the 06Z...


  • #64
    Defcol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭Defcol


    maquiladora wrote: »
    That shortwave is further south at 36 hours on the 06Z...

    What does that mean in laymans terms?


  • #65
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Defcol wrote: »
    What does that mean in laymans terms?

    Slight changes that might have a big impact a couple of days down the line. Will have to wait and see.


  • #66
    arctictree
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,338 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Big drop in temps here today. Currently only 1.2c, was 4.3c this time yesterday. Bodes well for the coming few days...


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  • #67
    Defcol
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 174 ✭✭Defcol


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Slight changes that might have a big impact a couple of days down the line. Will have to wait and see.

    For better or worse?


  • #68
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    forkassed wrote: »
    A comparison from last year...

    Note.. SST's 4 degrees warmer and we are 3 weeks before the shortest day of the year instead of 2 weeks after it. Obviously the snowfall will not be as widespread :(



    :eek: Oh come on!
    Have no idea what sst is but all i know is that this november is a lot colder than last and probably the coldest I have ever seen, last november was a washout.


  • #69
    eskimocat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Definitely wouldn't swap this cold crispy weather for the rain we had last November. Will even put up with a bit of fog in the mornings.

    Driving to Dublin tomorrow morning and back tomorrow evening so hoping to see some "weather" on my travels ;)


  • #70
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Pangea wrote: »
    :eek: Oh come on!
    Have no idea what SST is but all i know is that this november is a lot colder than last and probably the coldest I have ever seen, last november was a washout.

    Sea surface temperature . :)
    Morning fellow boardsies!


  • #71
    eskimocat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,204 ✭✭✭eskimocat


    Morning


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  • #72
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    uh oh


  • #73
    Speak Now
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,708 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    06ZGFS not great, shortwaves are becoming a pain.
    This afternoon's ECM will be interesting.......


  • #74
    roryc1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    Not great from the GFS this morning, but not all lost, it still keeps things cold :o


  • #75
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    :o

    gfs-0-156.png?6


  • #76
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Pangea wrote: »
    :eek: Oh come on!
    Have no idea what sst is but all i know is that this november is a lot colder than last and probably the coldest I have ever seen, last november was a washout.

    He's comparing the current/forecast set up with that of early January 2010 not November 2009!


    Certainly nothing overly mild in the offing on this morning's ECMWF as Maq pointed out earlier.

    ECMWF 240hr:
    136214.png


    Ensemble mean has the 850hPa temps at a rough average of -3c to -6c over Ireland throughout the run.


  • #77
    roryc1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    maquiladora wrote: »
    :o

    gfs-0-156.png?6

    Stop with the weather porn :p


  • #78
    Trogdor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    One thing i've noticed in terms of small-scale changes in the gfs 06z is that tonight and early tomorrow the gfs is now suggesting that precip will be held just off the East coast until late-ish thursday morning when some light stuff reaches the coast, instead of bringing it in overnight as previous runs suggested..

    EDIT:You can see in the ensembles acutally that the 06z run seems to be the only one giving no precip tonight out of all the runs.
    http://boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=136217&stc=1&d=1290598935


  • #79
    Figuramatyi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 245 ✭✭Figuramatyi


    I don't think there's any need to worry:
    192_24.gif


  • #80
    Winger_PL
    Registered Users Posts: 295 ✭✭Winger_PL


    trogdor wrote: »
    One thing i've noticed in terms of small-scale changes in the gfs 06z is that tonight and early tomorrow the gfs is now suggesting that precip will be held just off the East coast until late-ish thursday morning when some light stuff reaches the coast, instead of bringing it in overnight as previous runs suggested..

    That would seem correct, this morning there was an amazing display of Cumulus clouds over the sea visible from Dublin, with one Cb rising above the rest, all that mass was heading south steering clear of the coast. I wish I had taken my camera to work as it looked impressive; I'm certain somebody must have taken some pictures of it.


  • #81
    Pangea
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    He's comparing the current/forecast set up with that of early January 2010 not November 2009!


    .
    OK Thanks ,those are two very different months to compare.
    There was a good cold spell in place for the 2nd half of december before early January so the comparison on this set up in november is obviously not going to be the same.
    Maybe 2 weeks of a freeze then we might get something similar to last January regarding sea surface tempertures etc.


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  • #82
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,962 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    it's annoying to see the word preceded by snow in that met eireann update, but then they can't cater to my whims. I have a nasty feeling those warm sectors are going to do as they please. We could well have to wait for a breakdown before most of us see any decent precipitation in the form of sleet or snow- unless su campu the great can rustle up a polar low from norway in a strong noth /northeasterly flow


  • #83
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I think FI is a lot nearer than usual with this kind of setup...


  • #84
    lord lucan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭lord lucan


    Winger_PL wrote: »
    That would seem correct, this morning there was an amazing display of Cumulus clouds over the sea visible from Dublin, with one Cb rising above the rest, all that mass was heading south steering clear of the coast. I wish I had taken my camera to work as it looked impressive; I'm certain somebody must have taken some pictures of it.

    Took this yesterday,the big bank of cloud just hung over the coastline for much of the day. Pic isn't great due to being taken through glass but you might get some idea of it.

    IMG_20101123_161041.jpg


  • #85
    Figuramatyi
    Closed Accounts Posts: 245 ✭✭Figuramatyi


    Also don't worry about GFS, operative is way above av: MS_-853_ens.png


  • #86
    Iancar29
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    A small dusting of snow on the dublin mountains this morning if nobody mentioned it yet.

    I think its gone now since the sun came up.


  • #87
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/snowrisk.asp

    For a bit of fun.


  • #88
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    UK met office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
    Snow showers continuing, especially in north and east but spreading to many other parts by the weekend.
    Further snow showers or longer spells of snow are likely almost anywhere across the UK next week, northern, eastern and central areas tending to see the most frequent showers.

    I guess it will be similar for us.


  • #89
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    nacho libre wrote: »
    it's annoying to see the word preceded by snow in that met eireann update, but then they can't cater to my whims. I have a nasty feeling those warm sectors are going to do as they please. We could well have to wait for a breakdown before most of us see any decent precipitation in the form of sleet or snow- unless su campu the great can rustle up a polar low from norway in a strong noth /northeasterly flow

    You called???? :D

    png;

    Ok, only kidding, it's not a true polar low - or is it?
    The NAE has it as a much more potent small-scale warm-core centre pulling storm-force wins down on its nortwest flank by tomorrow evening.

    10112512_2406.gif

    The GFS and HiRLAM have the strong winds too, but have a much more flabby centre.

    101124_0600_30.png

    What I'm looking is at the GFS for Saturday and Sunday, which still has -1°C theta-w values over the east and north in an easterly breeze. IF this turns out to be the case, then it would suggest a good chance of snow to all levels. It's still very marginal though, but the fact that it's still showing it nearer to the time gives me a little more optimism that the east and northeast will see some action, and probably below the magic 50m!

    10112712_2406.gif

    10112818_2406.gif

    But it's on such a fine balance at the moment that the Norwegian low could scupper this and pull out the plug. It'll be a nowcasting weekend I think....


  • #90
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    No change in the UKMO outlook out to Dec 23rd :

    UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Dec 2010 to Thursday 23 Dec 2010:

    The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue well below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. There is some chance of it turning less cold, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

    Updated: 1200 on Wed 24 Nov 2010


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  • #91
    H2UMrsRobinson
    Registered Users Posts: 777 ✭✭✭H2UMrsRobinson


    It's all a waiting game now.

    Daily routine for next few days
    • Get up, have a peek out the window, grab a coffee and check MT's daily forecast
    • Get to work, grab another coffee and check the discussion thread on boards
    • More coffee and an f5 every half hour or so
    • loo break - all that coffee is starting to take it's toll
    • no checking of Boards in the afternoon as I'll have nothing to read when i get home
    • Get home and have a cup of tea, wouldn't like to become predictable now would I.
    • Snuggle down on Sofa with laptop and f5 the evening away.
    Ahhh bliss - I love winter:cool:


  • #92
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Su Campu wrote: »
    But it's on such a fine balance at the moment that the Norwegian low could scupper this and pull out the plug. It'll be a nowcasting weekend I think....

    How the EMHI's 06z HIRLAM run is handling this little feature:

    Friday morning 0600z chart: (Wind Speed)

    136238.jpg


    Forecast by the current ECM run to bring gale force winds down along the west coast by Friday evening/night. How it works out in reality remains to be seen.


  • #93
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Ok where are we today? Basically for those who wan't snow, ice and frost it does not get any better at this time of year.


    The ECM is probrably the best model to stick to so I will just quickly run through the 00z run

    Let's start with Saturday

    Recm722.gif


    A very cold day with temperatures really struggling to just above freezing and sleet and snow showers at all levels in the East in particular. Frost slow to clear in land and icy streatches on roads.

    Recm962.gif

    Saturday night and into Sunday sees further snow showers in the East, might be a bit sleety on coasts at times but should mostly be snow. Accumulations of snow likely esspecially on high ground but not exclusively.


    Recm1202.gif

    Monday sees a continuation of Sunday really. Temperatures really struggling - I would imagine not rising above freezing in some areas. So an ice day for some. Further snow penetrating further inland - and wind chill will make it feel well below freezing esspecially on East facing coasts.

    The cold weather continues then for the forseeable future. Remember the bitterly cold and frosty night aswell. Below -7C to be recorded?


  • #94
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    looks great in theory darkman2 but have my doubts that it will materialise this early in the winter!


  • #95
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    I think we're not going to see many sub-zero night time temperatures until Friday night, after the passage of the cold front. Up to then we'll just have to many cloud layers.

    And when it does get cold, I would say -5°C will be the lowest, maybe on Saturday night. Sunday winds will be stronger again, so may keep temperatures from falling too far.


  • #96
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    looks great in theory darkman2 but have my doubts that it will materialise this early in the winter!

    I know other have different opinions but im pretty confident that is what can be expected.

    The ECM ensembles back up what I am saying aswell. Im talking about Friday night on. I disagree with Su Campu there won't be sub zero nights till then. Temperatures should be down generally between -1 an -3C away from windward coasts between now and Friday at night so severe frost I think.


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  • #97
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    06Z GFS beyond 96 hours can go in the bin according to the National Weather Service

    LATEST 06Z GFS COMPLETELY DISREGARDED FROM DAY 4 ONWARD...

    :)


  • #98
    lucy2010
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 774 ✭✭✭lucy2010


    I cant really see MET eirinn saying anything other than rain after January's fiasco. Remember they annouced snowmageddon... Was stuck in Tesco's for 2 hours, not a pizza or loaf of bread left on the shelves & hundreds of people buying like the world was coming to an end.

    oil arrived yesterday - not getting caught out the like big thick I was the last 2 years cold spells .... beans in the press..... NTL all paid up to date...Brayweather.com on bookmark - so if it comes it comes & ill be cosy & fed & entertained.

    If not theres always the 154 page budget rubbish to complainabout.
    Right............... What are the charts all saying today > No point me trying to understand them - 2 years on of this & i still think they are all just colurs & lines:D


  • #99
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    maquiladora wrote: »
    06Z GFS beyond 96 hours can go in the bin according to the National Weather Service

    LATEST 06Z GFS COMPLETELY DISREGARDED FROM DAY 4 ONWARD...

    :)

    Why?


  • #100
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,962 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    i think it's because the pressure reading for the low to the south would be very unusual with a blocking high to the northeast. the low will likely be much weaker. also if it moves further north then milder south westerly air will be drawn into the circulation


  • #101
    maquiladora
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    baraca wrote: »
    Why?

    They say that all other models and means end up with an opposite pattern at day 7 so they are not confident the 06Z GFS has a good handle on things beyond a few days.


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