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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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    #4352
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Im going to start using your argument style now, its the only way to engage this muck and lack of understanding you continue to display

    Im disgusted at the fact Ireland has flushed away the futures of its children, and murdered citizens by postponing cancer screening (and some treatments), all to appease the perpetually offended.

    I dont know how you can justify what has happened in Ireland


    Fintan, you give off an air of being perpetually offended regardless, so any change of style would be an improvement.


    Neither ourselves or Sweden have anything to boast about when it comes to protecting the over 65`s and I get this theory that Sweden`s deaths are much higher than ours because of their greater numbers in that age group rather than it having anything to do with us using lockdown.


    Question is, how does this theory hold up in relation to, lets say Finland where 22% are 65 or older ?
    Or if you prefer Denmark with 20%. Even Norway with 17.5% if you prefer either of those.


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    #4353
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users Posts: 8,274 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    charlie14 wrote: »

    Neither ourselves or Sweden have anything to boast about when it comes to protecting the over 65`s and I get this theory that Sweden`s deaths are much higher than ours because of their greater numbers in that age group rather than it having anything to do with us using lockdown.


    Question is, how does this theory hold up in relation to, lets say Finland where 22% are 65 or older ?
    Or if you prefer Denmark with 20%. Even Norway with 17.5% if you prefer either of those.

    Im in complete agreement now Charlie.

    Ireland and Sweden havent anything to boast about, Sweden at least has the reason of no lockdown or disruption to schools.

    For Norway, Denmark and Finland its a incredible achievement to have such a low death rate.

    What is the outlier between those countries and the rest of europe?


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    #4354
    patnor1011
    Registered Users Posts: 2,959 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    There is not any dramatic increase in deaths in Sweden despite "deadly pandemic".

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/


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    #4355
    Harika
    Registered Users Posts: 4,410 ✭✭✭Harika


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    There is not any dramatic increase in deaths in Sweden despite "deadly pandemic".

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

    How did you verify that based on those statistics?


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    #4356
    Ce he sin
    Registered Users Posts: 213 ✭✭Ce he sin


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    There is not any dramatic increase in deaths in Sweden despite "deadly pandemic".

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/
    Did you look at the numbers in your link at all? Maybe you should. They've gone from about 90,000 pa to about 56,000 in the first half of this year.


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    #4357
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,495 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    There is not any dramatic increase in deaths in Sweden despite "deadly pandemic".

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

    There is a very large increase. Average of 90,000 annual deaths over the last 10 years means Sweden would usually have around 48,750 deaths by mid July. There are over 56,400 this year by this time.

    That's an increase of about 7650 deaths on a typical year,over 15%, and the first COVID death in Sweden only occurred in mid March.

    The deaths are far smaller than expected with their measures compared with the initial predictions, but the number of deaths in Sweden on a typical year is without a doubt a huge increase.


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    #4358
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,762 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    You say the same about the death rates in most SARS-2 infected countries, including this one.


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    #4359
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,463 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    A number of countries and regions who were hit badly by covid 19 are now starting to see fewer deaths than normal compared to other years.

    In other words a lot of people who were going to die in the second half of the year have died in the first half instead. Their deaths were brought forward.

    So its difficult to judge the impact of covid 19 until the year is finished.


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    #4360
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    A number of countries and regions who were hit badly by covid 19 are now starting to see fewer deaths than normal compared to other years.

    In other words a lot of people who were going to die in the second half of the year have died in the first half instead. Their deaths were brought forward.

    So its difficult to judge the impact of covid 19 until the year is finished.


    If you take bb1234567 figure of 7,650 excess deaths, if your hypothesis is correct and these numbers of deaths were brought forward due to Covid-19, it still does not explain the over 2,000 deaths over and above Sweden`s reported 5,500 Covid-19 deaths for the period.


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    #4361
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    There is not any dramatic increase in deaths in Sweden despite "deadly pandemic".

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

    Thank you I was trying to find similar on Euro mono but failed.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

    There's no real trend I can see on euro mono but in general the deaths seem to pick up after Christmas.

    Without a monthly breakdown from statistica, it may be possible that the current year may even have a small excess death number associated with covid19, i.e. slightly less than current covid19 death numbers.

    Anyway, another 5 months to go I suppose


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    #4362
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    mcsean2163 wrote: »
    Thank you I was trying to find similar on Euro mono but failed.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

    There's no real trend I can see on euro mono but in general the deaths seem to pick up after Christmas.

    Without a monthly breakdown from statistica, it may be possible that the current year may even have a small excess death number associated with covid19, i.e. slightly less than current covid19 death numbers.

    Anyway, another 5 months to go I suppose


    As bb1234567 pointed out, based on a ten year average Swedish deaths by Mid July should be 48,750.

    This year there have been 56,400.

    7,650 deaths more until Mid July 2020 than the ten year average, which means there are 2,000 more deaths during that period than Sweden`s reported deaths from Covid-19.


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    #4363
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    Im in complete agreement now Charlie.

    Ireland and Sweden havent anything to boast about, Sweden at least has the reason of no lockdown or disruption to schools.

    For Norway, Denmark and Finland its a incredible achievement to have such a low death rate.

    What is the outlier between those countries and the rest of europe?

    The obvious outlier is one has the 5th highest rate of deaths from Covid-19 while the others are 13th, 16th and 20th.

    As to the question I asked in relation to all four.
    This theory that because Sweden have such a high number of their population over 65 in comparison to Ireland, lockdown here made no difference in protecting that age group.
    How does that theory stack up when compared to their three neighbours ?
    Norway in particular where there are more per capita in that age group than in Sweden.


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    #4364
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,463 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    charlie14 wrote: »
    The obvious outlier is one has the 5th highest rate of deaths from Covid-19

    Link please?

    According to this they are 6th highest.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

    And news today that Iran is under reporting deaths by 300% makes them 7th highest.

    And its only a matter of weeks before Brazil, the US, Mexico and one or two others pass them out.

    In any case such a table makes a country like Ireland look better despite having a much younger population than Sweden.


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    #4365
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users Posts: 8,274 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    charlie14 wrote: »
    The obvious outlier is one has the 5th highest rate of deaths from Covid-19 while the others are 13th, 16th and 20th.

    As to the question I asked in relation to all four.
    This theory that because Sweden have such a high number of their population over 65 in comparison to Ireland, lockdown here made no difference in protecting that age group.
    How does that theory stack up when compared to their three neighbours ?
    Norway in particular where there are more per capita in that age group than in Sweden.

    No Ireland is an outlier in that the lockdown was a failure when compared to Sweden. Lets not forget Sweden wont have any lockdown assiciated deaths.

    The rest of the Scandinavian countries have performed very well at protecting citizen's from a covid death.

    As they had lockdown we will compare them to Ireland as that will be a fairer comparison.

    So the question is why did Irelands measures fail so badly?


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    #4366
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,463 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    One thing that should be questioned after all this is why Ireland only has 13% of its population over 65 compared to countries like Sweden which have 20%

    https://www.prb.org/countries-with-the-oldest-populations/

    We aren't even in the top 50.


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    #4367
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,495 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    No Ireland is an outlier in that the lockdown was a failure when compared to Sweden. Lets not forget Sweden wont have any lockdown assiciated deaths.

    The rest of the Scandinavian countries have performed very well at protecting citizen's from a covid death.

    As they had lockdown we will compare them to Ireland as that will be a fairer comparison.

    So the question is why did Irelands measures fail so badly?
    Cancer screening and treatment was stopped in every country worldwide including Sweden so they will also have deaths associated with measures introduced in the pandemic

    Apart from cancer deaths, what lockdown associated deaths have we experienced or will in future?


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    #4368
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users Posts: 8,274 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    One thing that should be questioned after all this is why Ireland only has 13% of its population over 65 compared to countries like Sweden which have 20%

    https://www.prb.org/countries-with-the-oldest-populations/

    We aren't even in the top 50.

    Its very interesting, seemingly Ireland has one of the highest birthrates in the EU, so from that we have a younger population.

    Italy and Spain have the lowest birthrates.


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    #4369
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,762 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Link please?

    According to this they are 6th highest.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

    And news today that Iran is under reporting deaths by 300% makes them 7th highest.

    And its only a matter of weeks before Brazil, the US, Mexico and one or two others pass them out.

    In any case such a table makes a country like Ireland look better despite having a much younger population than Sweden.

    Please note that they are wrong, as they don't include Iran who have 3 times the number of deaths they have been officially reporting to the WHO, which puts them in the top five, pushing Sweden down the list by a place.


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    #4370
    bb1234567
    Registered Users Posts: 5,495 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    cnocbui wrote: »
    Please note that they are wrong, as they don't include Iran who have 3 times the number of deaths they have been officially reporting to the WHO, which puts them in the top five, pushing Sweden down the list by a place.

    Netherlands also released data estimating that deaths are twice as high as reported, pushing as high as 12,000.
    On that basis, it says there is “a 95 per cent certainty” that the actual figure for the period from March 9th to May 24th correctly stands somewhere between 8,593 and 11,691.

    The CBS says its own statisticians are now using a figure of 10,160 deaths for that period. This would place deaths per capita in the Netherlands at about 600 per million , just ahead of Sweden. Netherlands would be 6th in the world then, just after Iran and Spain. In reality several other countries such as Ecuador, Mexico and Chile may also have higher deaths per capita than Sweden based on the excess deaths.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/netherlands-covid-19-death-toll-may-be-up-to-100-higher-says-statistics-office-1.4317977


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    #4371
    cnocbui
    Registered Users Posts: 19,762 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    .. and Russia, and China, and so on, and so on...


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    #4372
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Link please?

    According to this they are 6th highest.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

    And news today that Iran is under reporting deaths by 300% makes them 7th highest.

    And its only a matter of weeks before Brazil, the US, Mexico and one or two others pass them out.

    In any case such a table makes a country like Ireland look better despite having a much younger population than Sweden.


    It seems You did not read the question I was replying to.
    "What is the outlier between these countries and the rest of Europe"
    Peru is not in Europe.



    Sweden has the fifth highest rate of deaths in Europe. 56.01 per 100,00, with Italy fourth at 58.2 according to Statista as of 30th July.
    With the number of excess deaths in Sweden, it is debatable which of Sweden, Italy or Spain should be 3rd, 4th. or 5th. in Europe for Covid-19 deaths.


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    #4373
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,841 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    The sweden option is very good to see. But a hyper conservative country like ireland , would never have went down that road...

    When you factor in our relatively very young population, are deaths not relatively worse here than sweden ?


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    #4374
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    charlie14 wrote: »
    As bb1234567 pointed out, based on a ten year average Swedish deaths by Mid July should be 48,750.

    This year there have been 56,400.

    7,650 deaths more until Mid July 2020 than the ten year average, which means there are 2,000 more deaths during that period than Sweden`s reported deaths from Covid-19.

    No.

    bb1234567 gave full years death count and averaged on a monthly basis as if deaths didn't typically peak in a certain portion of the year. Look at the euro mono excess death reports if you have not already followed the link I posted.

    My guess is that the full year excess deaths over normal will be less than total covid19 deaths despite a low z score at the start of 2020....


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    #4375
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,463 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    charlie14 wrote: »
    It seems You did not read the question I was replying to.
    "What is the outlier between these countries and the rest of Europe"
    Peru is not in Europe.



    Sweden has the fifth highest rate of deaths in Europe. 56.01 per 100,00, with Italy fourth at 58.2 according to Statista as of 30th July.
    With the number of excess deaths in Sweden, it is debatable which of Sweden, Italy or Spain should be 3rd, 4th. or 5th. in Europe for Covid-19 deaths.

    5th in Europe. Only 5th? Not bad considering they didn't lockdown. And almost exactly the same death rate for over 65s as Ireland.


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    #4376
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    FintanMcluskey wrote: »
    No Ireland is an outlier in that the lockdown was a failure when compared to Sweden. Lets not forget Sweden wont have any lockdown assiciated deaths.

    The rest of the Scandinavian countries have performed very well at protecting citizen's from a covid death.

    As they had lockdown we will compare them to Ireland as that will be a fairer comparison.

    So the question is why did Irelands measures fail so badly?


    Why are you avoiding the question Fintan ?
    The theory you are advocating is that because Sweden has a greater percentage of those aged 65 and over, that Ireland using lockdown made no difference when it came to protecting this age group.


    Sweden has 20% of it`s population 65 and over, Finland 22.3% Denmark 19.81, and Norway 17.5%

    If this theory is correct then should it not also be apparent for the other three Nordic countries that used lockdow ?


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    #4377
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users Posts: 8,274 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Bit cynical wrote: »
    Just on the age breakdown in Ireland and Sweden,

    NRg.svg

    This combines Covid-19 data from census population for each country. It is a little hard to interpret as the age brackets are different for Ireland and Sweden. However I plotted some of the data in Excel to produce:

    NRX.svg
    I left out the 85+ and 95+ brackets as these are of different sizes. Looking at the chart, there's not a lot of difference between Ireland and Sweden but it looks like between 70 and 80 you have a lower chance of death by Covid in Sweden than Ireland. Between 60 and 70, a slightly lower chance in Ireland.

    There's not a huge amount in the difference but I think we can say that Sweden was not worse in any significant way than Ireland in the treatment of its elderly. Both countries made similar mistakes and Sweden, at least, have admitted to this.

    There was someone on here saying he was glad he lived in Ireland because he was 70. But, in fact, it probably does not make a huge amount of difference. If we control for age, Ireland and Sweden have performed roughly the same.

    Sources: Ireland population (2016): CSO.ie
    Ireland deaths by age bracket: Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland

    Sweden Population: SCB.se
    Sweden deaths by age: Statistica
    Bit cynical wrote: »
    Further to an earlier chart in this post, I wanted to see if one set of data stood out from the other when intermingled. Since the age brackets overlap for Sweden and Ireland we can combine them in one plot:

    NQp.svg
    Data points alternate between Ireland and Sweden. Looking at the chart, it is very hard to tell which data point is Ireland and which is Sweden; they fit together very well. There is just one point at age 55 (representing the 50 to 60 age bracket) which comes from Sweden. It is higher than it should be for a good fit but only just.

    [Edit: I think the point at age 75 (also Sweden) is slightly lower, again only just, for a good fit. This corresponds to the observation made in the earlier post, that at 75 or thereabouts you are slightly better off in Sweden.]

    The conclusion from this is that whatever age you are, you have pretty much the same chance of succumbing to Covid-19 whether you are in Ireland or Sweden, other things being equal.
    Idbatterim wrote: »
    The sweden option is very good to see. But a hyper conservative country like ireland , would never have went down that road...

    When you factor in our relatively very young population, are deaths not relatively worse here than sweden ?

    See above


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    #4378
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,892 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    5th in Europe. Only 5th? Not bad considering they didn't lockdown. And almost exactly the same death rate for over 65s as Ireland.


    Out of 51 countries I would not say 5th is great.


    Actually on that same death rate as Ireland theory on over 65s, perhaps you might care to answer a query another poster appears to be avoiding.
    How does that theory hold up in comparison to the other three Nordic countries that used lockdown?


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    #4379
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users Posts: 8,274 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Why are you avoiding the question Fintan ?
    The theory you are advocating is that because Sweden has a greater percentage of those aged 65 and over, that Ireland using lockdown made no difference when it came to protecting this age group.


    Sweden has 20% of it`s population 65 and over, Finland 22.3% Denmark 19.81, and Norway 17.5%

    If this theory is correct then should it not also be apparent for the other three Nordic countries that used lockdow ?

    Should what be apparent?

    Im not really sure, is there any outliers?

    Sweden have 2 million citizens over 65 - 5700 deaths
    Norway has 923000 over 65 - 256 deaths
    Denmark has 1.1 million over 65. 616 deaths
    Finland has 1.2 million over 65. 329 deaths
    Ireland has 650k over 65. 1700 deaths

    I cant answer your question Charlie, the stats are baffling.

    Ireland hasnt done well but the stats from Norway, Denmark and Finland are excellent.

    Are they only recording deaths exclusively from Covid, and not all postive case that happened to die?


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    #4380
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users Posts: 4,463 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Truth is Charlie, you've been telling us for weeks now that Sweden has treated its elderly as expendable while probably implying how much better we're doing when both countries treated their elderly equally as bad.

    A good many who died in Sweden and Ireland would have died of something else. A good many who survived Covid 19 in Norway and Finland have already died from something else.

    We are now seeing an average of 50 cases a day in Ireland but no deaths. Because in Ireland we managed to eventually sort out PPE and protected nursing homes.

    Sweden have managed to avoid the armeggedon some people predicted. And those same people seem to be annoyed they got it so wrong.

    As for sustainable you only have to look at poster children of lockdowns, Australia and Vietnam to see what happens in a second spike.

    To me whether schools can re open or not demonstrates what countries are successfully living with the virus. And given that Sweden and Ireland now have the same mortality rate over 65 it wouldn't be great if they opened theirs but we kept ours shut.


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    #4381
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users Posts: 8,274 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Truth is Charlie, you've been telling us for weeks now that Sweden has treated its elderly as expendable while probably implying how much better we're doing when both countries treated their elderly equally as bad.

    A good many who died in Sweden and Ireland would have died of something else. A good many who survived Covid 19 in Norway and Finland have already died from something else.

    We are now seeing an average of 50 cases a day in Ireland but no deaths. Because in Ireland we managed tp eventuall

    Interestingly a citizen over 65 has been safer in Italy than Ireland from Covid.

    The spin the media have put on the death stats was incredibly clever


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