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By-Elections 2019

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    #32
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,058 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Anyone know if there'll be exit polls for these elections?


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    #33
    NIMAN
    Registered Users Posts: 33,129 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    People complain non-stop about politicians yet couldn't be ar$ed to go out and vote when they have a chance to have their say.


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    #34
    Salary Negotiator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,148 ✭✭✭Salary Negotiator


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Anyone know if there'll be exit polls for these elections?

    Would you poll? No one turned up to vote.


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    #35
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,144 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Exit poll would cost too much. We'll know in 24 hours any way.


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    #36
    statesaver
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,084 ✭✭✭statesaver


    Salary Negotiator wrote: »
    Would you poll? No one turned up to vote.

    Won't take long to count the votes it seems.


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    #37
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,144 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    I'd say they'll get the day out of it.


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    #38
    statesaver
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,084 ✭✭✭statesaver


    Water John wrote: »
    I'd say they'll get the day out of it.

    On the taxpayers dime, they'll get the day out of it alright


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    #39
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,845 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    I realise this is a somewhat hypothetical scenario, but what would happen if a candidate was elected in more than one constituency. Would he/she represent them all in the Dail?

    Select one and vacate the others. Two councillors were elected twice to the same council this year and had to do that

    I suspect this could be two FF, one Labour and one Indepdent Green and cause a bit of a worry numbers wise particularly when Dara Murphy actually quits


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    #40
    For Forks Sake
    Registered Users Posts: 11,487 ✭✭✭✭For Forks Sake


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Anyone know if there'll be exit polls for these elections?

    Doubtful.


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    #41
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Dublin Mid-west
    Ward (SF), Gogarty (International Popstar) and Higgins (FG) appear to be the early frontrunners.

    Ward has captured 80%-90% of the North Clondalkin working class area vote on early tallies.


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    #42
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,058 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    SF's Ward in DMW seems to be the big story so far. Even if he loses out narrowly in the end that would be far better than expected.


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    #43
    L1011
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 67,845 Mod ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Nobody seemed to predict SFs vote really. Could be 2x FF, Green, SF now or even 2x SF, FF, Green depending on if SF can get transfers in in Cork.


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    #44
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Final tallies in CNC and DMW:

    CNC
    FF 28.19
    FG 21.14
    SF 19.59
    Lab 9.70
    Grn 7.25

    DMW:
    SF 23.9
    FG 18.7
    Gogarty 12.7
    FF 11.8
    Timmons 6.9
    Lab 6.7
    Grn 6.4 (stupid RTE posted a sideways photo of a pie chart so hard to read)


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    #45
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,058 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    L1011 wrote: »
    Nobody seemed to predict SFs vote really. Could be 2x FF, Green, SF now or even 2x SF, FF, Green depending on if SF can get transfers in in Cork.

    For Ward anyway, the trick seems to have been mobilising voters in working-class...wards. Course it'll be harder to repeat the trick in a GE, when all sectors are mobilised to some extent


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    #46
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,615 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    So Cork called for FF Malcolm Byrne. Dublin mid west looks like it will be close when transfers are distributed


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    #47
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,058 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    I realise this is a somewhat hypothetical scenario, but what would happen if a candidate was elected in more than one constituency. Would he/she represent them all in the Dail?

    Do we have a test case?:p
    Muahahaha wrote: »
    So Cork called for FF Malcolm Byrne.


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    #48
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,615 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Do we have a test case?:p

    Whoops, meant Padraig o'Sullivan, wouldnt know what either of them look like if they passed me in the street.

    Sinn Feins Mark Ward now looking like causing an upset in Dublin mid west. FG Emer Higgins was supposed to be nailed on for that seat, Leo must not have gotten the vote out.


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    #49
    duffman13
    Registered Users Posts: 8,946 ✭✭✭duffman13


    Muahahaha wrote: »
    Whoops, meant Padraig o'Sullivan, wouldnt know what either of them look like if they passed me in the street.

    Sinn Feins Mark Ward now looking like causing an upset in Dublin mid west. FG Emer Higgins was supposed to be nailed on for that seat, Leo must not have gotten the vote out.

    Emer from what I can see went very very big on social media advertising but didn't engage with people after posting a video. A lack of substance from my POV, I went to school with her and would have been tempted to vote there but genuinely don't think she's ready for it yet. Some of the hateful ****e posted was pretty rough on some of the videos.

    As for Ward, he's got a good standing in the community and seems to have a hand in everything. He might pull a seat at the next GE at the expense of big Gino Kenny which might not be a bad thing. They'll both be depending on the same vote tbh! Surprised at Gogartys performance too

    FG will struggle in the constituency, they'll need to run Emer again IMO, there's no one else there but the higher turnout will work in her favour i think.


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    #50
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,615 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    duffman13 wrote: »
    Emer from what I can see went very very big on social media advertising but didn't engage with people after posting a video. A lack of substance from my POV, I went to school with her and would have been tempted to vote there but genuinely don't think she's ready for it yet. Some of the hateful ****e posted was pretty rough on some of the videos.

    For some bizarre reason she had posters up in Tallaght and Brittas on the Wicklow border, not sure she knows her geography :D Agree with the hateful bile online, people need to be held to account for that sh1t

    Dublin Mid West now called for Sinn Feins Mark Ward. Thats a huge upset in Francis Fitzgeralds old seat and Leo pushing Emer Higgins strongly for the last year. Veronas dogwhistle politics dont seem to be working out in Wexford either.


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    #51
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    I'd love to see what the turnout was in Nth Clondalkin (Neilstown, Fonthill, Rowlagh etc) compared to the locals and last couple of GE's.
    It finally seems a candidate got the historically low working class turnout way up.

    Imagine if the working class (I know it's a broad stroke) vote actually turned out in high numbers at every election it would change the political landscape in most urban constituencies at least.


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    #52
    strandroad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,676 ✭✭✭strandroad


    I am happy to see that Verona Murphy miscalculated badly.


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    #53
    Muahahaha
    Registered Users Posts: 19,615 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    strandroad wrote: »
    I am happy to see that Verona Murphy miscalculated badly.

    She would likely get returned in the general election next year- if FG let her run


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    #54
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    strandroad wrote: »
    I am happy to see that Verona Murphy miscalculated badly.

    How so? She was FGs biggest vote getter today by a mile in her first run. So it’s clearly more a FG party issue than any issue with her. Byrne has also ran in numerous elections and not been successful before today.


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    #55
    McMurphy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    No seats for FG at all?


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    #56
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Johnny Dogs wrote: »
    No seats for FG at all?

    Not one but two extremely poor and jaded out of touch candidates in Reilly and Burke. How any in FG thought of running either is mystifying and symbolic of a disconnection between the party top brass and the general public


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    #57
    Peregrine
    Moderators, Education Moderators Posts: 26,399 Mod ✭✭✭✭Peregrine


    Johnny Dogs wrote: »
    No seats for FG at all?

    Nope. Reilly has been eliminated in Fingal.


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    #58
    McMurphy
    Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    Peregrine wrote: »
    Nope. Reilly has been eliminated in Fingal.

    Not surprised at that one at all, but I honestly thought Higgins basically was basically a formality, (leo won't be happy at the shinners stealing his thunder) and thought Verona Murphy was also a sure thing.

    Reilly surely has the message by this stage that he's a political has been.


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    #59
    road_high
    Registered Users Posts: 19,388 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    Johnny Dogs wrote: »
    Not surprised at that one at all, but I honestly thought Higgins basically was basically a formality, (leo won't be happy at the shinners stealing his thunder) and thought Verona Murphy was also a sure thing.

    Reilly surely has the message by this stage that he's a political has been.

    Varadkar had a woeful campaign, he’s been an non event really- certainly does not bode well for his chances of re-election. He actively undermined Verona Murphy coming out with ridiculously naive statements like “it’s too late to deselect her..”- despite her being his best by election performer by some way. In a war you get in and defend your foot soldiers especially as what she said was so tame but hijacked by the PC brigade who are like the Gestapo for thought control in this country


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    #60
    brick tamland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    duffman13 wrote: »
    Emer from what I can see went very very big on social media advertising but didn't engage with people after posting a video. A lack of substance from my POV, I went to school with her and would have been tempted to vote there but genuinely don't think she's ready for it yet. Some of the hateful ****e posted was pretty rough on some of the videos.

    As for Ward, he's got a good standing in the community and seems to have a hand in everything. He might pull a seat at the next GE at the expense of big Gino Kenny which might not be a bad thing. They'll both be depending on the same vote tbh! Surprised at Gogartys performance too

    FG will struggle in the constituency, they'll need to run Emer again IMO, there's no one else there but the higher turnout will work in her favour i think.

    Will SF run 2 candidates? Will be intetesting to see. Risks splitting the vote and losing both seats imo.

    Will be interesting next year alright. Cant see Gino getting back in. Curran will struggle too. Can see Paul Gogarty getting a seat.


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    #61
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users Posts: 43,027 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    I am embarrassed that a man that can hardly string a sentence together is representing me in the Dail

    A GE can’t come soon enough


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