Very strong winds developing south, east; storm watch late Tuesday

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2014 4:14pm

First model out, GME.

Looks bad enough.

@Midday

gme-0-24.png?31-12

@6pm

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2014 4:37pm

GFS similar gradient.

GFS data shows a 65kt gust is likely in Dublin region tomorrow afternoon.

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2014 4:41pm

GFS also going for a rain to snow event later this evening and early tonight!

Looks like it is going to start off as rain.

12-574UK.GIF?31-12

maquiladora · 31-01-2014 4:49pm

Strongest gusts on the 12Z GFS are along the far southwest coast, with a max of 70 mph (112 km/h) shown. Elsewhere general gusts of around 85-105 km/h south of Ulster, highest along south/west coasts.

It continues to look weaker than previous storms weve had this winter, on this model anyway.

12pm :

12_24_windvector_gust.png?cb=519

3pm :

Oscar Bravo · 31-01-2014 5:06pm

Met Eireann 1555 update

This evening and tonight will be cold and very windy. A band of heavy showers will spread east to all areas early in the night giving falls of hail and sleet with snow on hills. A risk of thunder also. Southwest winds will increase to gale force with some severe gusts later in the night. Sharp ground frost with the risk of icy patches by morning. Lowest temperatures of +1 to -2 degrees.

Tomorrow

Tomorrow Saturday, will be very wind or stormy. Showers will be heavy and wintry with further falls of hail and sleet. Southwest gales will be accompanied by some severe gusts - especially in the west and south, where there will be a continuing risk of coastal flooding due to high seas and tides. Highest temperatures of 5 to 8 degrees.

Outlook

Saturday night will see westerly winds continuing to moderate in all areas while backing southwesterly; showers will become isolated also and confined to Atlantic coastal counties. Sunday will start mainly dry and possibly bright in places, most likely in the east. However, it will become overcast during the day and outbreaks of rain or drizzle will spread north to affect many areas by early night; winds backing southerly will increase strong and gusty again everywhere also.

The first half of Monday is likely to continue wet and windy throughout the country but a clearance to showers and moderate, southwesterly breezes will come through in the afternoon. Monday night will be mainly dry with clear spells but it will turn colder, with frost and the possibility of ice in places.

Tuesday looks like being dry and bright for daylight hours, though staying cold; however, southeasterly winds seem set to strengthen significantly by early night, with heavy rain likely to spread north across the country overnight before clearing on Wednesday morning. The remainder of next week will most likely have no worse than moderate or fresh breezes and only scattered showers; many areas will have dry periods, with the chance of some sunshine by day but also frost developing at night.

Hal1 · 31-01-2014 5:15pm

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=3.74,42.10,776

There are 130kph winds on it's southern flank. I can see this causing some flooding.

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2014 5:40pm

Current position appears to be 56N 20W at 940 mbs.

This buoy should give us all the details on approach:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=62105

more from me later, planning to be on duty more or less continuously from 1800h to landfall.

Larbre34 · 31-01-2014 5:57pm

Temps are taking something of a dive as you would expect. Just looking at the approach on Sat24 is it just me or does it look unusually slow moving for a system of its type?

goat2 · 31-01-2014 6:02pm

right now the wind is picking up in the past 15 minuets, rain bashing the windows, it had been lovely and sunny dry and calm an hour ago, but the change has come quick, the sky television is freezing now and then as it does in wind, tide look high

JanuarySnowstor · 31-01-2014 6:03pm

The 12s look slightly weaker overall for tomorrow.
Stormy but nothing exceptional is whats showing at the moment
Tide looks high here already with 40mins to go for high tide. The morning tide will surely flood

Oscar Bravo · 31-01-2014 6:19pm

and from here on in can people please post their location especially if using your phone!

billie1b · 31-01-2014 6:32pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

and from here on in can people please post their location especially if using your phone!

Blanch, but nothing ever happens here

Weathering · 31-01-2014 6:37pm

I don't see how this is level3 alert and it never was. You only have to read Maq's posts to know

hats199 · 31-01-2014 6:39pm

Flooding at Spanish arch already.

Itssoeasy · 31-01-2014 6:41pm

River was very high in cork city and high tide is at 5:57pm.

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2014 6:47pm

I think the level 3 is encompassing the coastal flooding threat.

Meteorologically just a level 2.

nidgeboy · 31-01-2014 6:52pm

will it be raining heavy in tipperary in the morning??

Weathering · 31-01-2014 6:53pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think the level 3 is encompassing the coastal flooding threat.

Meteorologically just a level 2.

Perhaps the thread title should reflect that. It's misleading imo it implies an exceptionally extreme wind event is on the way

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2014 6:56pm

Two points, the slow forward motion at this time was indicated on most models and level 3 as carefully explained before applies only to sea level issues in the west and south. Nobody ever said this would be a level 3 windstorm, although I think it may be a solid level 2 for large parts of the south and west.

The forum has a lot of viewers in those counties most prone to flooding or surge damage issues and even if a dead calm was expected to prevail all day in Donegal, we need to get the word out to those readers so they can be further prepared (although it seems like other sources of information are on the same page).

Anyway, the moderators will surely tell me through feedback they get what their overall assessment is, so I don't really concern myself that much with any one posted opinion -- but I do factor in everyone's opinion equally and you would need to see my inbox to get a fuller picture of the range of feedback that I routinely receive for forecasts made here.

Anyway, it's my thread so it's my responsibility together with the forum mods who made the upgrade at my request since I couldn't edit the title at the time. If there was a level 2.5 I would go with that, if that helps. Maybe 2.49736, water up to your knees but not quite, well you know. Or maybe you don't.

Pacing Mule · 31-01-2014 6:59pm

The seek shelter tag line looks sensationalist and stupid. All it does in situations like this is adds fuel to those who accuse the forum here of over hyping things.

howlinwolf · 31-01-2014 7:02pm

Weathering wrote: »

Perhaps the thread title should reflect that. It's misleading imo it implies an exceptionally extreme wind event is on the way

yeah I think a brief breakdown would help in the thread title, a lot of people who come on here will understand why level 3 is being used ( coastal flooding in the west/southwest) but a lot of people will see the level 3 seek shelter wording... still think that wording is slightly over the top.... and think armaggedon is coming, as we all know a 100 miles can be a world of difference when it comes to these types of systems in Ireland...I can see all the " what storm/ met eireann are a disgrace" comments already

An Bradan Feasta · 31-01-2014 7:02pm

It looks like there are none of the buoys off the west coast are working south of Donegal. The ones we relied on are all showing no recent reports.
K2 - M6 are gone now and M3 has never come back online.
Hard to believe we are an island nation

fits · 31-01-2014 7:07pm

[

Deleted User wrote: »

Bullsh*t. Wisdom is being prepared for the worst, even if you don't expect it. Better off ready for worse than you get than battered by worse than you expect.

FWIW, I'm aware of voluntary rescue orgs in Galway & Dublin that've put flood alerts to their members. That should tell you what to prepare for.

Look, maybe I'm wrong about this storm but putting out unnecessarily high warnings only devalues them. The red alert is justified for coastal exposed areas only hence the thread title is misleading. Also much as I enjoy reading these threads some posters are total rampers. Its met eireann's job to be accurate and they are the accountable ones.

shmaupel · 31-01-2014 7:11pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

yeah I think a brief breakdown would help in the thread title, a lot of people who come on here will understand why level 3 is being used ( coastal flooding in the west/southwest) but a lot of people will see the level 3 seek shelter wording... still think that wording is slightly over the top.... and think armaggedon is coming, as we all know a 100 miles can be a world of difference when it comes to these types of systems in Ireland...I
can see all the " what storm/ met eireann are a disgrace" comments already

Yes I agree that a certain amount people who don’t take the time to consume all the information here will always find some reason to freak out once the event is over but I think if you follow the instructions in the thread title you couldn't find a better visual of the breakdown of the potential for the next 24hrs.

Much more efficient than trying shoe horn that information into a thread title.

Storm 10 · 31-01-2014 7:22pm

Galway City Council say they are now seriously worried about this storm having consulted with Met E, they are expecting widespread flooding in the City and Salthill, I passed the docks a while ago and the ships are level with the quay wall. There was no wind yet the sea was coming over at Spanish Arch can you guess what its going to be like tomorrow with storm force winds and storm surge, the last storm was amber yet it devasted the Coasts of Clare , Galway and Mayo, I think if you live in these areas a red alert is justified

Xenji · 31-01-2014 7:30pm

Who names these storms, the pleb on 3e is after calling the storm Bridget.

shmaupel · 31-01-2014 7:33pm

Xenji wrote: »

Who names these storms, the pleb on 3e is after calling the storm Bridget.

Feast of St. Brigid tomorrow :-)

_Whimsical_ · 31-01-2014 7:35pm

Xenji wrote: »

Who names these storms, the pleb on 3e is after calling the storm Bridget.

Someone from The Weather Channel in the US was on the radio during the week calling it Bridget too,so named as it's arriving in Ireland on the feast of st Bridget he said.

maquiladora · 31-01-2014 7:36pm

Xenji wrote: »

Who names these storms, the pleb on 3e is after calling the storm Bridget.

The Weather Channel in the UK took it on themselves to name it that after the saint's day (same ones that came up with 'Saint Judes'). It's not something used by any meteorological agency.

LoonyLovegood · 31-01-2014 7:38pm

The wind's after picking up in the last hour or so, I'm in Galway city.

Fred Swanson · 31-01-2014 7:52pm

This post has been deleted.

Storm 10 · 31-01-2014 7:57pm

Met Eireann now on TV , wind will reach violent storm force 11 in the West does that not warrant a red alert

loubian · 31-01-2014 8:00pm

Clear skies in North Dublin

Fred Swanson · 31-01-2014 8:02pm

This post has been deleted.

Xenji · 31-01-2014 8:03pm

Fred Swanson wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Only for people in Dublin, sure we are used to it in the west :pac:

Oscar Bravo · 31-01-2014 8:10pm

A chilly one degree in Castlebar now. Light rain after some heavy sleety showers.

patneve2 · 31-01-2014 8:18pm

Just a matter of time before the first reports of wet snow in the west start rolling in

Storm 10 · 31-01-2014 8:18pm

The people that got flooded in the last storm in Galway were very angry with ME on local radio the day after the storm, they said that they had survived the Red alert storm on Stephens day so with just the amber alert for the January storm they assumed it would be a doddle, they said given the damage caused if it had been red they could have taken precautions which no one did. Now if violent storm force 11 hits at high tide tomorrow the result will be devastation for Galway and Salthill and you will have people giving out that it was amber.

Leisureland suffered such damage in the last storm it may not be open for months

MiNdGaM3 · 31-01-2014 8:19pm

Just had a heavy rain/hail shower pass though in Cahir. Winds have picked up quite a bit too.

JanuarySnowstor · 31-01-2014 8:25pm

Storm 10 you are spot on in that a red alert is warranted for the west and south. People forget that coastal west and south includes large cities like galway cork and limerick. All 3 are on the coast last time I checked well 2 anyway with limerick more inland

maquiladora · 31-01-2014 8:27pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

The people that got flooded in the last storm in Galway were very angry with ME on local radio the day after the storm, they said that they had survived the Red alert storm on Stephens day so with just the amber alert for the January storm they assumed it would be a doddle, they said given the damage caused if it had been red they could have taken precautions which no one did. Now if violent storm force 11 hits at high tide tomorrow the result will be devastation for Galway and Salthill and you will have people giving out that it was amber.

Leisureland suffered such damage in the last storm it may not be open for months

Remember the warnings are for wind speeds. If the models are not showing gusts over 130 km/h then there won't be a red warning. Whether the wind warning is yellow, orange or red is based on the winds speeds. There is no criteria for coastal flooding.

Coastal flood alerts are issued by the Office Of Public Works, not Met Eireann. In the UK the Met Office doesn't issue coastal flooding alerts, the Environment Agency does.

Conmaicne Mara · 31-01-2014 8:32pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Storm 10 you are spot on in that a red alert is warranted for the west and south. People forget that coastal west and south includes large cities like galway cork and limerick. All 3 are on the coast last time I checked well 2 anyway with limerick more inland

Even if it didn't include urban areas I can cite four examples off the top of my hear of significant damage to private property. Farmer in Mayo lost 2 acres of ground, all his silage, and 28 of his ewes. Locally to me one family lost their smokehouse business premises, their car & van, and I believe their house was also flooded. Another family lost their septic tank and polytunnel, another man lost €6,000 worth of fishing gear.

People often live very near the sea, sometimes building houses on sites of older cottages in times when travel by sea was more the norm.

I regretfully expect more damage this time again.

Storm 10 · 31-01-2014 8:34pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Remember the warnings are for wind speeds. If the models are not showing gusts over 130 km/h then there won't be a red warning. Whether the wind warning is yellow, orange or red is based on the winds speeds. There is no criteria for coastal flooding.

Coastal flood alerts are issued by the Office Of Public Works, not Met Eireann. In the UK the Met Office doesn't issue coastal flooding alerts, the Environment Agency does.

Maq do you not think violent storm force 11 deserves a red alert

Red Pepper · 31-01-2014 8:39pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Met Eireann now on TV , wind will reach violent storm force 11 in the West does that not warrant a red alert

I think she said possibly force 11. You'll be needing a new warning level colour if you keep over-hyping these storms

Purple?

TheMilkyPirate · 31-01-2014 8:39pm

Seek shelter seriously needs to be removed from that warning. Overly sensationalist and verging on scare mongering.

Why not replace it with Avoid unnecessary travel or something else less doomsday like.

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2014 8:41pm

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Seek shelter seriously needs to be removed from that warning. Overly sensationalist and verging on scare mongering.

Why not replace it with Avoid unnecessary travel or something else less doomsday like.

As far as I remember it is not that easy, has to be forwarded to Admins and changed at root. Not like you can edit it when creating thread

Red Pepper · 31-01-2014 8:43pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

The people that got flooded in the last storm in Galway were very angry with ME on local radio the day after the storm, they said that they had survived the Red alert storm on Stephens day so with just the amber alert for the January storm they assumed it would be a doddle, they said given the damage caused if it had been red they could have taken precautions which no one did. Now if violent storm force 11 hits at high tide tomorrow the result will be devastation for Galway and Salthill and you will have people giving out that it was amber.

Leisureland suffered such damage in the last storm it may not be open for months

Utter nonsense :rolleyes:, it was the high tides that concentrated the minds in Galway in early January. I know many of the business owners in Sathill and we knew it would not be a "doddle". And we know it wont be a "doddle" tomorrow with the spring tide! It wont be ME's fault...<snip> Attack the post, not the poster please

31-01-2014 8:44pm

How about be ready?

And can someone please give me a good reason under preparation is better than over preparation?

There is no such thing as "just right" preparation. Or "as little as possible" preparation.

Suck it up, bite your tongue, accept you have to be prepared for the worst possible.

JanuarySnowstor · 31-01-2014 8:48pm

How about we hold fire until this time tomorrow and see then whether it warranted a red or not

outsourced_ire · 31-01-2014 8:49pm

Can we talk about the weather, and not what alert it would be? I just had to sift through 2 pages of arguments on what alert this storm should be..

Very strong winds developing south, east; storm watch late Tuesday

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