Very strong winds developing south, east; storm watch late Tuesday

There was a thread open until a day ago, extending the discussion of the Monday storm into the prospects for a severe storm late Friday 31st into Saturday 1st February.

This new thread will continue that discussion on the basis of model data this morning, showing the potential for wind gusts reaching 130 km/hr on the west coast, and a very high potential for coastal flooding especially around Galway Bay but more generally on the west and even south coasts, due to the strongest winds overlapping some of the month's highest astronomical tides due to the new moon (30th) at perigee. Rainfalls of 15-30 mm appear likely with some risk of thunder and hail, from mid-day Friday to late Saturday.

At this early stage, I have selected level 2 although conditions look fairly close to level 1 for the inland and eastern thirds of the country, and could reach level 3 locally on the west coast. Level 2 will apply to counties from Waterford around the west coast to north Ulster.

This post will be edited after all model runs are completed, but the earlier guidance was quite consistent with a storm maximum around 0600h Saturday with the low centre approaching from the west then moving more northeast after reaching Donegal Bay. Some ensemble members of the GFS model were showing extreme conditions and the general consensus of all models would suggest maximum gusts of 130 km/hr in exposed locations and 110 km/hr fairly widespread. The only updated guidance so far (0320h) is the 48h RGEM which shows a 960 mb low approaching Ireland on Friday at 00z. Further updates will come in soon from the GFS, GME and UK models, and around 0615h from the ECM. This post will be edited from the data shown in those model runs.

UPDATE 1 _ The 00z GME shows an extreme storm event with a 940 mb low approaching coastal Donegal Bay by late Friday. If this model has support from the bigger models after two consecutive runs I would upgrade the warning to Level 3. It would warrant a high state of alert for the west coast Friday night.

UPDATE 2 _ The 00z GFS is only slightly less extreme with the low at about 940 mb mid-day Friday filling to 950 mb before landfall (the track is across north-central Ireland then into the Irish Sea). This model would suggest peak gusts of about 115 km/hr but very similar impacts from high tides and waves/swells. Maximum level 2 status is more appropriate to this model. Some perturbations are bound to be stronger.

UPDATE 3 _ The 00z UKMO appears a touch further north but is about the same intensity as the GFS. Timing on all three models is very similar for maximum gusts to hit around 0300-0900h Saturday.

UPDATE 4 _ The 00z GEM is fairly similar to the GFS and holds back the full power of the storm until after midnight Friday then unleashes it just as central pressures are filling. It would only require a slight tweak in this model to get to the GME more intense solution.

FINAL UPDATE _ The 00z ECM follows the same general scenario and now we await more reliable guidance from model runs later today realizing that the system will not actually be forming (out of remnants of a storm system off the southeast coast of the U.S.) until some time later tonight or Thursday morning.