Fierce Cold Spell from Sunday (February 1st)

30-01-2009 12:05pm

Lol at the print out comment

I think it's safe to call monday and tuesday at this stage as being snow showers in the East some heavy and they should be frequent and heavy enough at times to be settling at sea level.
Not all areas even in the East will get them but they will push well inland.

After Tuesday,theres still lots of potential but too much model uncertainty to call.
I wouldnt be surprised though if it was like MT said and it snowed some all week with some areas unfortunately missing out but other areas getting quite a dumping!

munsterlegend · 30-01-2009 12:05pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I must admit I think Evelyn's forecast for the last 2 nights has been very odd. 'Fine and sunny for the early days of Feb' are not what the charts are showing.
I know she said it would get cold but that's a bit of an understatement too.
Funny thing is she usually a bit of a ramper.

Game on is what I would say:D

yeah she is usually very optimistic...must have been all the heavy rain and storm in the atlantic which put her off focus. hope that snow pushes west, usually things never materialised as planend this far out but it is getting closer..i watch with interest.

Welsh Wizard · 30-01-2009 12:05pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Charts looking fantastic this morning.

For once we look like being in a good position.

I would probably advise against following the GFS, changing lots on each run now UKM and ECM are less volatile...... in the medium term this is.. towards +120/144.

In the shorter term for Sunday night/ Monday / Tuesday things looking like getting more certain.

An intense cold pool will push in during Sunday afternoon with 850hpa temps touching -12c perhaps at times in the east. Dewpoints will drop rapidly. Snow showers will begin to form during Sunday evening and progressively develop and become heavier and more frequent through the night.

Monday will be a very cold and snowy day in the east with temperatures around 0 or 1c with dewpoints down to -4c or -5c. For once the showers will be snow! The snow will stick readily and most places along the east coast will recieve at least 5cm through the day with places locally recieving upto 15cm's The snow showers will continue through Monday night with troughs and prolonged showers likely.

Tuesday will start icy with showers in the east but a band of sleet and snow will push from the east, things will begin to become slighltly more marginal however ECM/UKM give a period of heavy snow for much of Ireland through Tuesday with SIG accumalations. GFS gives a more sleet/snow mix as DP's rise to 0c-1c.

From Wednesday onwards things are very uncertain, however it is likely to turn slightly less cold, still frosty and maxes of no more than 5c before a possible northerly moves south.

Overall Sunday evening, Monday and Tuesday offer the best chance to see a decent accumalation of snow for Dublin since 2001.

Am i still asleep, am I dreaming....?? Really hope you're right WC...
Fingers crossed and Camera ready..

30-01-2009 12:08pm

This time I think WC is pretty much on the ball with that one.
Wenesday onwards looks dodgy but it depends on so many things really that I wouldnt call it either way.

Pangea · 30-01-2009 12:23pm

BBC weather beta shows a full covering for ireland on tuesday

Mothman · 30-01-2009 12:37pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I think it's safe to call monday and tuesday at this stage as being snow showers in the East some heavy and they should be frequent and heavy enough at times to be settling at sea level.
Not all areas even in the East will get them but they will push well inland.

I'm going to inject some realism here.

(I'll prepare for stoning

)
When it is showery, there is likely to be sunshine, so yes there may be settling at low levels, but there will be a thaw in between showers. With this mild damp snap at moment ground temperatures are rising. 7C with me this morning. This will enhance thaw as well. Also too early to say how heavy showers may be. So many showers only contain less than 1mm precipitation, but a heavy shower may have 5mm or more.
As BB says in quote above, not all areas may get showers. Often a shower train builds up and Arklow may see showers all day with little thaw between and a few miles north in Wicklow may be Costa del Wickla all day

30-01-2009 12:37pm

@ pangea

I presume it's the weight of the snow over the southern half that makes it fall off the map?

Redsunset · 30-01-2009 12:44pm

Just caught the end of weather on rte and saw the chart which now has a big dirty black cloud in the east with white yokes hangin out of it.em i wonder what that could be?haha

:D:D:D:D:D:D

30-01-2009 12:48pm

can someone tell me if there is any snow on the mountains left now?

TheGreenGiant · 30-01-2009 12:51pm

I know its still abit away but the charts look very promising indeed. This is Monday's chart are 18.00hrs

And then looking as far ahead as Wednesday (a good bit of ramping of course;)) looks to be very good as well for decent falls of snow when winds vier north easterly.

All in all though, a VERY cold week ahead, which is great considering the muck we have had the past few days:rolleyes:

30-01-2009 12:52pm

Mothman wrote: »

I'm going to inject some realism here. (I'll prepare for stoning )
When it is showery, there is likely to be sunshine, so yes there may be settling at low levels, but there will be a thaw in between showers. With this mild damp snap at moment ground temperatures are rising. 7C with me this morning. This will enhance thaw as well. Also too early to say how heavy showers may be. So many showers only contain less than 1mm precipitation, but a heavy shower may have 5mm or more.

Glasnevin are starting to dip their toes in this-at 755am this morning on radio one ,they used the word heavy and hail sleet and snow showers.
The showers are "probably" likely to be heavy due to the -10 or even -12c 850 temps,and their ECM ensembles will be telling them that with some confidence I'd imagine.

As BB says in quote above, not all areas may get showers. Often a shower train builds up and Arklow may see showers all day with little thaw between and a few miles north in Wicklow may be Costa del Wickla all day

Hopefully not but I know what you mean.I dont think it will feel like costa though with a strong wind off the sea and a max of 2 or 3c.
I'd be expecting 0c in heavy precip.

Mothman · 30-01-2009 12:55pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Hopefully not but I know what you mean.I dont think it will feel like costa though with a strong wind off the sea and a max of 2 or 3c.
I'd be expecting 0c in heavy precip.

Costa meaning sunny, it'll certainly feel raw, but I have my thermals at the
ready

SEPT 23 1989 · 30-01-2009 12:58pm

i would be just happy to see the canals freeze:)

Supercell · 30-01-2009 1:56pm

Deleted User wrote: »

can someone tell me if there is any snow on the mountains left now?

Nada from what I can see, drove over Wicklow Gap this morning as I had to go to Blessington. To say conditions are atrocious up there is an understatement.
Even at the highest point the temperature was 7°C so any snow that was left was surely washed away, probably even on Lug.
Should have some new stuff shortly though

asdasd · 30-01-2009 1:56pm

Issued by the Met Office in the UK

East of England
North West England
Central, Tayside & Fife
Yorkshire & Humber
London & South East England
East Midlands
SW Scotland, Lothian & Borders
Strathclyde
Grampian
West Midlands
North East England
Heavy Snow Mon 2 Feb

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting many parts of Britain during Monday and Tuesday. Colder weather with snow showers, heavy at times on Monday, and perhaps a spell of more persistent snow overnight and into Tuesday could give some significant accumulations in places, with the highest amounts most likely over the higher ground.

Issued at: 1029 Fri 30 Jan

UK regions:
East of England
Yorkshire & Humber
London & South East England
East Midlands
West Midlands
North West England
Northern Ireland
SW Scotland, Lothian & Borders
Wales
Strathclyde
South West England
North East England
Heavy Snow Tue 3 Feb

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting many parts of Britain during Monday and Tuesday. Colder weather with snow showers, heavy at times on Monday, and perhaps a spell of more persistent snow overnight and into Tuesday could give some significant accumulations in places, with the highest amounts most likely over the higher ground.

Issued at: 1031 Fri 30 Jan

Redsunset · 30-01-2009 2:16pm

yummy:D

nacho libre · 30-01-2009 2:23pm

So someone mentioned a big downgrade by GFS past Wednesday does this mean the Atlantic is going to spoil the party from then on or is it merely a blip before it gets colder again. I suppose it's impossible for the weather agencies to know what's going to happen in these situations. however, which of them tends to be more reliable in their analysis, the ECM or the GFS?

MUSEIST · 30-01-2009 2:33pm

To be honest i would.nt say a downgrade beyond wednesday but the models are really struggling with what happens here. At the moment the models show it staying generally cold with no real sign of the mild atlantic breaking through yet. However it all remains fairly uncertain at this point.

I think its now looking very good for sunday night and monday and possibly into tuesday with good agreement between models and some really cold air around. Also the fax charts which someone above posted shows precipitation in the east and plenty of it so at this point I am very confident of at least seeing some snow in the east next monday.:p

About time i did aswell

CianRyan · 30-01-2009 2:37pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Charts looking fantastic this morning.

For once we look like being in a good position.

I would probably advise against following the GFS, changing lots on each run now UKM and ECM are less volatile...... in the medium term this is.. towards +120/144.

In the shorter term for Sunday night/ Monday / Tuesday things looking like getting more certain.

An intense cold pool will push in during Sunday afternoon with 850hpa temps touching -12c perhaps at times in the east. Dewpoints will drop rapidly. Snow showers will begin to form during Sunday evening and progressively develop and become heavier and more frequent through the night.

Monday will be a very cold and snowy day in the east with temperatures around 0 or 1c with dewpoints down to -4c or -5c. For once the showers will be snow! The snow will stick readily and most places along the east coast will recieve at least 5cm through the day with places locally recieving upto 15cm's The snow showers will continue through Monday night with troughs and prolonged showers likely.

Tuesday will start icy with showers in the east but a band of sleet and snow will push from the east, things will begin to become slighltly more marginal however ECM/UKM give a period of heavy snow for much of Ireland through Tuesday with SIG accumalations. GFS gives a more sleet/snow mix as DP's rise to 0c-1c.

From Wednesday onwards things are very uncertain, however it is likely to turn slightly less cold, still frosty and maxes of no more than 5c before a possible northerly moves south.

Overall Sunday evening, Monday and Tuesday offer the best chance to see a decent accumalation of snow for Dublin since 2001.

I hope to god, you are right.

30-01-2009 3:17pm

Supercell wrote: »

Even at the highest point the temperature was 7°C so any snow that was left was surely washed away, probably even on Lug.
Should have some new stuff shortly though

The top of lug was still covered in snow yesterday.

Regarding the weather from Wenesday onwards,the UKMO chart that redsunset posted sums up the problem.
Follow the wind arrows and you end up in the med.So if nothing changes,we end up with a mild source.
Enjoys sunday night monday and into Tuesday folks ...after that it's a wait and see.

Redsunset · 30-01-2009 3:18pm

0hpa 850hpa temps def not a prob

darkman2 · 30-01-2009 4:34pm

It's nailed now. Sunday night will see increasingly frequent and progressively heavier snow showers effecting the East coast and, later, toward the midlands. Monday will then see frequent heavy and prolonged snow showers for the East, Midlands and South and also Eastern districts of the North particularly at risk of possibly significant accumulation. A bitter day. Temperatures 0 - 2C at the very best. Monday night - showers continue in the East - becoming more confined here with again the possibility of further accumulation esp high ground. Tuesday see a more active system approach from the East with more prolonged sleet and snow giving further accumulations however during Tuesday night things get more marginal and any snow should turn to sleet or rain on coasts, at least for a time. Further on then that, given the uncertainty, is not really worth going into at this stage.

30-01-2009 4:38pm

I've been reading the U.S scientific forecast discussion and they are mainly using GFS this weekend and into early next week and not the ECMWF model.

That could mean curtains to our snowy spell come late Tuesday night if the U.S forecasters are thinking that at the moment GFS will verify better.

darkman2 · 30-01-2009 4:50pm

It will be well into Tuesday according to the ECMWF

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-96.GIF?30-12

By 1am Tuesday most of the country is still sub -8 and easily sub -6........the GFS may be being a little progressive it may not. But we will see.

30-01-2009 4:56pm

72 hours away is a bit flakey with GFS precip charts but they aint half bad for the Eastern half on monday

30-01-2009 4:59pm

And by late tuesday even better but possibly with the snow retreating to the higher ground by then.There could be a fair bit of it underfoot on the low ground as the change to sleet and rain happens though.

darkman2 · 30-01-2009 5:04pm

GFS again pushing that low north on Tuesday but it's a closed circulation engulfed in sub -5 air. Some will do rather well out of that. Not coastal fringes though with a keen East breeze.

30-01-2009 5:08pm

Well inland probably and the higher ground are going to continue to see the snow pile up.
Coastal Louth Dublin,Wicklow and Wexford and waterford should see the precip change to sleety/rain by tuesday night going on this.
Very slight changes in the actual may vary this.

200motels · 30-01-2009 5:12pm

According to Sky News long range forecast up to Monday they have no snow for Ireland. I always find Sky's forecasts a little bit inaccurate for Ireland so I hope they are wrong with this time.

200motels · 30-01-2009 5:15pm

This chart looks good for Monday.

Fierce Cold Spell from Sunday (February 1st)

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