Fierce Cold Spell from Sunday (February 1st)

bassy

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20090128/tuk-temperatures-to-plunge-next-week-6323e80.html

M.T. Cranium

Have a look in the model thread here, but in general yes, it looks like several cold spells could develop in February, the first one could last much of next week starting later Sunday in Ireland but the most promising day being Monday 2nd of February. Another cold spell could develop later in the week towards the following weekend. As I say, would suggest looking in the model thread for more details. I will post more extensively on this tonight, seeing if this thread is still open, or if not, I will post in whatever thread seems most appropriate given the circumstances that develop in the 00z model runs.

Pangea

Wow, its fantastic that yet another cold spell is on its way, What a great winter we are having , Frost began on halloween , plenty of cold spells since then

Pangea

"There are growing signs that heavy snow showers will accompany this frigid air during Monday and Tuesday, more especially across southern and eastern parts of England, with the north and west probably staying mainly fine and frosty" :mad:
This obviously means we wont get snow here in Ireland right?

MUSEIST

Pangea wrote: »

"There are growing signs that heavy snow showers will accompany this frigid air during Monday and Tuesday, more especially across southern and eastern parts of England, with the north and west probably staying mainly fine and frosty" :mad:
This obviously means we wont get snow here in Ireland right?

Well the east side of the country is more at risk due to showers from the irish sea, just like the east side of the uk is most at risk from precipitation from the north sea.

The gfs run shows showers of snow for the east and south of ireland from sunday night till tuesday .How many showers ,how much snow is impossible to say at this stage but if you live in the east or south there is a good chance you will see snow.

Pangea

lol dam im in donegal

TheGreenGiant

Aye, its looking fairly good for a god cold spell again, lasting for most of next week. Quite possibly some snow especially along southern to north eastern coasts depending on precipitation of course. Here's what the chart looks like for Monday at 850hPa

jon burrows

Met Eireann: 29th of Jan, SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY : Very cold, with east to northeast winds. Widespread night frost. Scattered hail or snow showers likely, especially in east and southeast - but most places dry and clear.

M.T. Cranium

Keep your fingers crossed, there could be a country-wide snowfall coming by Tuesday. Low pressure is indicated to approach from the southeast but never makes it past Cornwall. This would be ideal for forcing the cold air mass to drop its potential snow load over Ireland. If the models verify, you could be looking at widespread sea-effect snow bands on Monday, consolidating into a snowstorm on Tuesday. Amounts could be quite heavy, I will keep an eye on it and give some estimates closer to the time, but I am talking several inches in many parts of Ireland. A historic snowstorm in 1933 does not look vastly different on the maps.

munsterlegend

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Keep your fingers crossed, there could be a country-wide snowfall coming by Tuesday. Low pressure is indicated to approach from the southeast but never makes it past Cornwall. This would be ideal for forcing the cold air mass to drop its potential snow load over Ireland. If the models verify, you could be looking at widespread sea-effect snow bands on Monday, consolidating into a snowstorm on Tuesday. Amounts could be quite heavy, I will keep an eye on it and give some estimates closer to the time, but I am talking several inches in many parts of Ireland. A historic snowstorm in 1933 does not look vastly different on the maps.

I love your post M.T. and hope it materialises. My confidence is a little broken given the let downs to date but i'm optimistic again given the recent posts.

I'm pretty confident at this stage.Also Met Éireann forecast hail and snow showers in the East for sunday night and monday on their 755am radio forecast.
Not a mention of the word sleet or rain.

This looks very 80's esque.

synoptically it more january 87 I think than feb 91 in the sense that the winds are progged to go more NE after an initial East.
Thats what they did in '87.
I'm not sure if it will be as cold as then but that easterly whitened Dublin at first with plenty of Irish sea snow showers and was followed by an active low that pushed down from Scandinavia dumping close to a foot of snow in south Dublin and snow all the way to valentia in Kerry as it exited out into the atlantic.

Reverse zonality all the way.

I hope I havent jinxed this.

ninebeanrows

I thought i'd start a new thread and merge the other one in.

The outlook is sensational, probably the best if it were to occur since the age of the internet.

A fiercely cold easterly blast is expected to set in from Sunday evening with the cold persisting for a prolonged period.

At first extremely cold easterly winds take hold with 850hpa temperatures expected to reach -12c in some areas of Ireland.

From Monday the easterly winds will bring in heavy and possibly prolonged showers of snow to the east coast and these will move inland at times. Temperatures will be very suppressed rising to 1 or 2c at most, the most notable aspect will be the very low dewpoints ranging from -6c to -2c. For once marginality looks like it will be less of a concern.

The intense easterly flow will last through Tuesday and Wednesday with snow lying in many eastern areas.

From Thursday winds will turn more northeasterly as pressure rises over Greenland at first it may turn slightly less cold for a while with rain, sleet and snow pushing from the north. Then it would seem the Arctic is expected to flood south with a prolonged Northeasterly flow with bands of snow moving southwards. At this point the details beyond Wednesday are subject to change but very likely to remain extremely cold and snowy.

It could well be the best cold spell for Eastern Ireland for over a decade. Finer details are still being firmed up as we speak. If your reading NW and other UK fora, they will be getting restless over these fine detail changes as these are all from south England and if the cold pool and low moves slightly north so does the snow risk, that's what has happened on this mornings 6z! However we should no complain :pac:

This could be it folks, we could really need to buy a sleigh!!:D:D

munsterlegend

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm pretty confident at this stage.Also Met Éireann forecast hail and snow showers in the East for sunday night and monday on their 755am radio forecast.
Not a mention of the word sleet or rain.

This looks very 80's esque.

synoptically it more january 87 I think than feb 91 in the sense that the winds are progged to go more NE after an initial East.
Thats what they did in '87.
I'm not sure if it will be as cold as then but that easterly whitened Dublin at first with plenty of Irish sea snow showers and was followed by an active low that pushed down from Scandinavia dumping close to a foot of snow in south Dublin and snow all the way to valentia in Kerry as it exited out into the atlantic.

Reverse zonality all the way.

I hope I havent jinxed this.

yes i remember '87 and was off school for most of the week. looking at other sites for the UK they are 100% certain there will be snow so hopefully it will feed over here in the easterly breezes! snow is marginal here at the best of times but at east there is hope..

darkman2

LMAO at some of the stuff on NW. It's all over apparently because Southern England might miss out again:pac: We aint gonna miss out though for the second year in a row - is Ireland about to do better again from an Easterly? Me thinks so:)

Pangea

darkman2 wrote: »

LMAO at some of the stuff on NW. It's all over apparently because Southern England might miss out again:pac: We aint gonna miss out though for the second year in a row - is Ireland about to do better again from an Easterly? Me thinks so:)

whats NW?

WorriedSick

I must say guys.. Its pretty quiet in here this afternoon, especially since we could be on the brink of something great!! Where's Snowaddict, I enjoy his regular updates. Wouldn't it be great if we had Weather reports like these on Sunday / Monday... We can always dream!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd6DuebHliY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qc49oYbAIr4

I remember this clearly, it snowed on my Birthday (Feb 5th) and from what I remember we got a few days off school. I'm in Shankill which is right on the coast so its very unusual!! Hopefully this time round, it will deliver! what a way to commemorate the 18th Anniversary of the snow of 1991!! God, I hope I didn't jinx it.. I'll shut up now!!

arctictree

WorriedSick wrote: »

I must say guys.. Its pretty quiet in here this afternoon, especially since we could be on the brink of something great!! Where's Snowaddict, I enjoy his regular updates. Wouldn't it be great if we had Weather reports like these on Sunday / Monday... We can always dream!!

They've gone to the Irish Weather Network forum : http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/index.php

I think it is quite here because people don't want to jinx it - the main event is still quite far out...

Pangea

Pangea wrote: »

whats NW?

Cough

It's a UK centric weather forum.

By the way going back to the 80's esque nature of this beast,it was often the case that southern Britain warmed up a bit as say a channel low dragged in milder air to the south coast of England.
That usually strenthens the flow of cold over us further north though.

Hit and miss moderate or heavy snow showers from late sunday night right through to Tuesday are still very likely especially in Eastern areas but not exclusively.
I'm fairly hopefull that this will be heavy enough where it falls and that it will be cold enough for it to settle at sea level.

Goodness knows what will be happening up in the likes of artictree's place and annamoe...but it WILL be pretty


I think I just ramped...

I hope I havent jinxed this.

nacho libre

so it seems this month could go down in snow folklore, at least for those in the East anyway.

in fact if the snow won't come to me i'm tempted to take a trip eastwards

blackgold>>

we won't get snow. You guys cry wolf every few weeks.......

ninebeanrows

The great snow of 1991



ECM projection for Monday at T+96hrs this morning for 0000hrs Tuesday

Redsunset

blackgold>> wrote: »

we won't get snow. You guys cry wolf every few weeks.......

Ah did someone not get their porridge this morning.sorry no party poopers allowed.GET IN THE ZONE MAN.it will snow in east.end of story.:p

kerry1960

Thats it then ...im leaving....selling the house...... loading up the chickens .......and going to live in wicklow....on sunday....:p.

Pangea

kerry1960 wrote: »

Thats it then ...im leaving....selling the house...... loading up the chickens .......and going to live in wicklow....on sunday....:p.

lol I think i wont be leaving donegal just yet

blackgold>>

redsunset wrote: »

Ah did someone not get their porridge this morning.sorry no party poopers allowed.GET IN THE ZONE MAN.it will snow in east.end of story.:p

Lol


Im in cork so i better be getting sneachta or there will be war.!!!!!

WorriedSick

kerry1960 wrote: »

Thats it then ...im leaving....selling the house...... loading up the chickens .......and going to live in wicklow....on sunday....:p.

Ok Guys, I got 3 spare rooms.. I'm right in the firing line.. €100 per room for the week.. Dinner included!! would suit someone from The Whest!


My map reading skills are non existant but just wondering if there are any similarities between the chart posted above by Weathercheck and the current charts for early next week? :rolleyes:

darkman2

WC the FEB 91 event was somewhat colder then what is coming up, cold though it is. Synoptically very similar though.

Weathercheck

Weathercheck wrote: »

The great snow of 1991



ECM projection for Monday at T+96hrs this morning for 0000hrs Tuesday

Pretty similar isnt it.
I remember being in the yard here at home with swirling blinding dry snow coming down in a fog it was so heavy during that and being in the depth of my wellington boots and going uhm wow!

It was hit and miss though.On the monday [a week after it started] We drove to wicklow[had a hard time getting through Arklow due to the frozen snow on the road] and discovered that beyond the beehive and into Wicklow town there was very little snow.
Reason? A big blob had came in off the Irish sea overnight on the previous friday and into saturday and basically sat south of Wicklow head down to Mid Wexford.
Glorious stuff.

I hope I havent jinxed this...

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

WC the FEB 91 event was somewhat colder then what is coming up, cold though it is. Synoptically very similar though.

Agreed.
We have the dewpoints though so we're into safe territory.
All we need is the cover and enough of a freeze to get over the hump of mid week

I hope I havent jinxed this.

blackgold>>

What dewpoint point do we need for snow and what do those 1000's on the chart above mean?

nacho libre

the midlands and part of the southwest could also do well out of this cold period if a few troughs move south east wards across the country when the winds swing around to the northeast. the best those of us in sligo, donegal, leitrim, and mayo will likely get is a few meagre flurries. the east though will definitely be the place to be - the likes of supercell could be snowed in for days:)

blackgold>>

blackgold>> wrote: »

What dewpoint point do we need for snow and what do those 1000's on the chart above mean?

Dewpoints ideally need to be -1c or lower though it can snow up to +0.5c dp's in big downpours.

We could be see'ing them from -2c to -6c in the coming spell

The 1000's are just barometric pressure like in your barometer at home.
The 1040 in Scandi combined with the low over iberia is causing the initial easterly -windflow circulates clockwise round the hp and anticlockwise round the lp making the easterly.
HP blocking the entire atlantic later should bring in a NE ,North and hopefully more of the NE and drag in low pressure systems by then in place over Scandi.
I'm being as laymans terms as I can there.

Devils in the detail which we should be posting here come sunday and certainly through next week.

I hope I havent jinxed this.

darkman2

blackgold>> wrote: »

What dewpoint point do we need for snow and what do those 1000's on the chart above mean?

Dewpoint - anything under 0C is acceptable for snow. The lower the better. Sometimes you can have a bit above 0 and still get snow but very rarely.


The "1000's" are pressure in hpa known as isobars. Basically anything under 1020hpa is considered low pressure which means a higher likelyhood of precipititation. Again the lower the better.

darkman2

nacho libre wrote: »

the midlands and part of the southwest could also do well out of this cold period if a few troughs move south east wards across the country when the winds wing around to the northeast. the best those of us in sligo, donegal, leitrim, and mayo will likely get is a few meagre flurries. the east though will definitely be the place to be - the likes of supercell could be snowed in for days:)

Could get fronts bumping up against the cold air from the south later on too!

blackgold>>

Great explanations lads very nicely put.
I always look in this forum but have no idea what im looking at in the charts.
So sneachta is on the way !!!!!!!!!

cheers black and dark !

Redsunset

Dew And Frost
When a jug full of iced drink is taken out of the refrigerator, water droplets condense on the outside of the container (provided the jug is made of a material which is a good conductor of heat, such as metal). This happens because the jug is at a lower temperature than the dew-point of the air.
'Dew-point' is defined as the temperature at which the air, when cooled, will just become saturated. For example, on a summer's day when the air temperature reaches 18°C, the dew-point might typically be 8°C. By sunset the air temperature may have fallen to 12°C, but the dew-point will still be around 8°C. During the night the temperature continues to fall and if it reaches, say, 7°C the temperature of the ground is below the dew-point of the air and droplets of moisture begin to form - this is dew. Since the air is now being 'robbed' of some of its water vapour, the dew-point of the air will actually start to fall very slightly.
Next morning, as the incoming solar radiation gathers strength, the dew will evaporate and the grass will become reasonably dry (and suitable for sitting on during the day). However, in winter, when calm conditions prevail, the daytime evaporation may be so slow that dew may persist all day.
Hoar-frost is composed of tiny ice-crystals, 'feathery' in appearance when well developed. It is formed by the same process as dew, but occurs when ground temperatures are below freezing point. Consequently, when the grass is covered in a white hoar-frost at dawn it cannot be assumed that there has necessarily been an air frost.
Sometimes dew forms during the evening and subsequently freezes to become hoar-frost with globular ice on the grass.
Snow
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica]Snowflakes can be formed by the collision of ice crystals within clouds. This is known as the process of aggregation and usually accounts for the larger snowflakes that are seen to fall. Smaller snowflakes are formed by the Bergeron-Findeisen process. Supercooled water droplets (i.e. those with a temperature below freezing) are 'picked up' by the falling ice crystals. The ice crystals grow at the expense of the water droplets.[/FONT]
For snow to reach the ground the air temperature must be no more than 2°C. One would expect the falling snow to melt as soon as the temperature rises above freezing, but this is not so. As the melting process begins, the air around the snowflake is cooled. At temperatures above 2°C the snowflake will melt to become 'sleet' or rain. In this country, the heaviest falls of snow tend to occur when the air temperature is between zero and 2°C.

• Individual ice crystals and snowflakes can be the shape of prisms, plates or stars - but all have 6 sides.
• 30cm of fresh fallen snow has about the same water equivalent as about 25mm of rainfall

Redsunset

Another cold snap is heading for the UK, as forecasters warn of the chilliest winter for 13 years.
Icy winds from the continent will be felt in the south and east of the UK in the next few days, followed by a "blast of bitterly cold air" from Russia.
Temperatures in some areas are forecast to plunge from up to 7C (45F) on Saturday daytime, to between -1C (30F) and -3C (27F) on Sunday night. BBC weather experts said snow was likely in some parts early next week.
ITS ALMOST WRITTEN IN STONE FOLKS.ALL WE NEED IS LOADS OF PRECIP.:D

nacho libre

520 dam thickness.

to be honest i'm still not fully sure what this is:o
does this refer to the optimum temperature along with moisture content at a certain height in the atmosphere in order for snow to occur??

an explanation would be appreciated

I am liking the use of the term "fierce" in this thread.

How much of a go is this, arent we a good few days out yet?
Im ready to get excited for some *real* snow but how long will this last?
What kind of day time temperatures? What of lying snow at ground level?
I see night time temps of -1c and -3c but what if day time temps are higher will the snow drive them down?
oh oh I`ll be doing climatology again this semester - maybe I`ll begin to understand some of those charts a bit better

Supercell

nacho libre wrote: »

520 dam thickness.

to be honest i'm still not fully sure what this is:o
does this refer to the optimum temperature along with moisture content at a certain height in the atmosphere in order for snow to occur??

an explanation would be appreciated

Here's an explanation of thicknesses (dam) better than I could ever do
In an continental easterly we don't need super low dam's by the way, though they help.

Supercell

Deleted User wrote: »

I am liking the use of the term "fierce" in this thread.

How much of a go is this, arent we a good few days out yet?
Im ready to get excited for some *real* snow but how long will this last?
What kind of day time temperatures? What of lying snow at ground level?
I see night time temps of -1c and -3c but what if day time temps are higher will the snow drive them down?
oh oh I`ll be doing climatology again this semester - maybe I`ll begin to understand some of those charts a bit better

I'm liking it too!, If snow falls well at even sea level there could be lying snow for several days, up here it should be ...interesting to say the least.
Anywhere snow is lying will have cooler nights and days, Inland some really low overnight temperatures are possible over snowfields and a bit inland.
If the pressure is lowish -<1015 (and it is forecast to be around ) and the winds are ene- ne then Dublin and Wicklow are likely to get huge dumpings of snow in any unstable air. Our best snowfalls occur in these types of setups.
That said these thing often go titus uppes so lets just enjoy the charts.
If they look the same on Saturday..i'm stocking up on supplies..seriously as here may be cut off!!

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

I am liking the use of the term "fierce" in this thread.

How much of a go is this, arent we a good few days out yet?
Im ready to get excited for some *real* snow but how long will this last?
What kind of day time temperatures? What of lying snow at ground level?
I see night time temps of -1c and -3c but what if day time temps are higher will the snow drive them down?
oh oh I`ll be doing climatology again this semester - maybe I`ll begin to understand some of those charts a bit better

Impossible to say how long it will last but it is looking good when there are so many snow-fest charts to choose from now that I can't agree which one to post.

I like the suggestion of part of the polar vortex [really cold snowy area of low pressure folks] drifting into Scandinavia in FI [the further out you go the less reliable the forecast-we call it FI or fantasy island because it's usually where the good stuff stays and never materialises...not this time though hopefully...]as it can only slide all the way from there to Valentia if it verifies like that.

This is quite exciting

kerry1960

Any hope i can come visit this weekend uncle SC.... cousin BB.....ANYONE......:D , just look at this chart.......
must be dreaming :P.

patneve

mmmmm, tasty!:eek: reminds me of the chart from the last big snow event in 2001 (dublin)

Supercell

kerry1960 wrote: »

Any hope i can come visit this weekend uncle SC

Lol, sure!, these charts are looking rather special. I'm frankly starting to worry that I wont be able to make it to the airport on February 9th!!

kerry1960

kerry1960 wrote: »

Any hope i can come visit this weekend uncle SC.... cousin BB.....ANYONE......:D , just look at this chart.......
must be dreaming :P.

Lol
That type of set up is actually snowier than january '87...
I'd be expecting snow drifts widely over the East and a covering over much of the country and welll chaos!

I hope I don't jinx this.

Redsunset

Supercell wrote: »

Lol, sure!, these charts are looking rather special. I'm frankly starting to worry that I wont be able to make it to the airport on February 9th!!

Ha ha.6pm news on feb 9th reads coast guard air lifts man from an avalanche of snow so he don't miss his flight.taxpayers annoyed over wasted expense.:pac:

kerry1960

Supercell wrote: »

Lol, sure!, these charts are looking rather special. I'm frankly starting to worry that I wont be able to make it to the airport on February 9th!!

Yeah SC , imagne being snowed in ,with nothing but a camera and

the lappy , my heart is bleeding .

Gonzo

if this turns out to be anything like 87 or 91 this will be very special indeed. I remember both those winters well and I remember days on end of prolonged snow showers, most of the snow showers gave between one and 2 inchs of snow per hour and several of these fell in an afternoon and more of them through the night, this trend repeated withself for up to a few days were we ended up with 8 to 14 inchs of snow depending on location. I remember one whiteout shower in particular, i think it was during the 1991 spell where it snowed so heavy one afternoon that you couldnt see more than 10 feet infront of you with flakes often 2 to 3 inchs wide (snowflakes often joining with another one to produce mammoth flakes).

Trogdor

Things looking very very good indeed and for once its not that far out:eek: not much point looking at the details yet but gfs seems to have constant precip fringing the east coast for days...this COULD be very special indeed

ninebeanrows

The output so far this evening is nothing short of sensational.

Look at a chart that is just 84 hours away, unprecedented in recent times :D

I think weathercheck.net might just be recreated for this event!