Rolex 01/09/2020 - predictions?

Oafley Jones · 16-09-2020 9:59am

893bet wrote: »

Don’t settle on the black41 if the white39 is what you wanted.

+1. Also, Rolex are going to churn these out. The price premium is just because they're the new thing. People are just hoping that the madness will extend to the entry level model. It'll settle down soon after and they'll be back to RRP or just under.

unkel · 16-09-2020 11:06am

Oafley Jones wrote: »

It'll settle down soon after and they'll be back to RRP or just under.

That very much remains to be seen. Personally I think the new OP41 in the fancy colours is a brilliant and bold marketing move from Rolex, they've taken the OP right into the unobtainable club where the steel sports watches are. I can also see Rolex now being appealing to a vastly wider group of people

Not a fan of the double batons, but I would love a green, a blue or particularly a turquoise one :cool:

Birneybau · 16-09-2020 12:35pm

Rootsblower wrote: »

I follow the Facebook page of a grey market watch dealer based in Belfast. The latest update included the lines:

Invest in a Rolex..... You can’t go wrong.

Dutch Tulips come to mind!!

According to Chrono 24, a black dial 39mm Oyster Perpetual I have is selling for 31% more than I paid for it. Bought earlier this year.

Thirdfox · 16-09-2020 1:06pm

Agreed on the tulips/housing comparison - when certain products are outperforming risky shares on the stock market there's a problem with the product's value. A readjustment will come - it'll just be a question of who's left holding the bomb when it explodes.

Of course, negative equity houses are fine too if you're intending to just live in it - with a watch if a 30-50% drop in value comes will people be able to adsorb that? Or keep it as a keeper anyway (as long as you're not buying the watch as an investment then who cares what it'll sell for - like living in a negative equity house).

unkel · 16-09-2020 1:07pm

Birneybau wrote: »

According to Chrono 24, a black dial 39mm Oyster Perpetual I have is selling for 31% more than I paid for it. Bought earlier this year.

Grey market dealer asking price though. That's the most inflated of inflated prices

Now if he would offer you above last retail for your worn and second hand OP, then I would be impressed

Rootsblower · 16-09-2020 7:20pm

Birneybau wrote: »

According to Chrono 24, a black dial 39mm Oyster Perpetual I have is selling for 31% more than I paid for it. Bought earlier this year.

Selling for prices on C24 and price paid upon completion of the transaction I’d say are two different things.

My 116610ln has a top asking price on C24 is €17800. I’d have more hope of winning Miss World than getting that.

I didn’t buy it as an investment so if the 2nd hand price drops below the retail price I don’t care. In my opinion the watch should be selling below retail after all it’s a mass produced stainless steel watch with a good finish and a not too intricate movement.

893bet · 20-09-2020 9:34pm

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=765182

This is they type of ****e that is going on in every AD.

unkel · 20-09-2020 9:51pm

It's going to get a lot worse. Apparently Rolex are about to do away with waiting lists altogether so plebs like me can forget about buying a nice Rolex from an AD. Only for preferential customers from now on (read: people who feel forced to buy stuff they don't want or have watches serviced that don't need it)

Thirdfox · 20-09-2020 9:58pm

Lol - so they're going the Hermes route - smart if not sad. Like I said on a group discussion recently - so for a Hulk I can get 2 Reversos...I know what I'd choose in a heartbeat.

893bet · 20-09-2020 10:01pm

unkel wrote: »

It's going to get a lot worse. Apparently Rolex are about to do away with waiting lists altogether so plebs like me can forget about buying a nice Rolex from an AD. Only for preferential customers from now on (read: people who feel forced to buy stuff they don't want or have watches serviced that don't need it)

That’s the way it is anyway really. They are just going to formalise that.

There is not an AD in the world I would wager that has a “first come, first served” policy in action.

unkel · 20-09-2020 10:27pm

893bet wrote: »

That’s the way it is anyway really. They are just going to formalise that.

There is not an AD in the world I would wager that has a “first come, first served” policy in action.

For sure if you were top of the waiting list and your watch just arrived but some scumbag former drug dealer from Ballyfermot came in (who spends a fortune in there), then you were bumped.

But at least there was a waiting list. I am on it. For a relatively modest watch, a no date sub. It would take a long time, but I would eventually be able to buy the watch that I am on the waiting list for, for the full RRP

Soon enough, this will not be possible

Do you not agree it is about to become much, much worse than it is today?

893bet · 20-09-2020 10:37pm

unkel wrote: »

For sure if you were top of the waiting list and your watch just arrived but some scumbag former drug dealer from Ballyfermot came in (who spends a fortune in there), then you were bumped.

But at least there was a waiting list. I am on it. For a relatively modest watch, a no date sub. It would take a long time, but I would eventually be able to buy the watch that I am on the waiting list for, for the full RRP

Soon enough, this will not be possible

Do you not agree it is about to become much, much worse than it is today?

Depends on the watch, for a no date or date sub, I think you will get allocated eventually. I couldn’t hazard a guess on time. Worth dropping in and chatting. The new release of a sub has not gone in your favour though. A black sub doesn’t seem very you though, but that’s just my perception from the other watches you seem to like.

For a Daytona, BLRO or New Kermit. No chance of ever being on page 1 even of “next in line”.

I don’t think Rolex will move to that model of distribution. They are almost too big. Too many ADs. No matter what’s it’s the AD that will be deciding who should gets what.

unkel · 20-09-2020 10:54pm

893bet wrote: »

I don’t think Rolex will move to that model of distribution

I hope you will be proven right. But I fear you are wrong. If ever there was a moment that Rolex could get away with a move up the ladder and away from a waiting list, it would be now.

Wibbs · 21-09-2020 8:52am

With a bubble it takes one prick to deflate it and Rolex pulling this could be the one that does.

Cyrus · 21-09-2020 9:01am

i really dont understand why they arent increasing their prices,

youd assume at £15k they would sell as many daytonas as they want to release, same with GMT BLRO at 12k.

Eoin · 21-09-2020 9:17am

Cyrus wrote: »

i really dont understand why they arent increasing their prices,

youd assume at £15k they would sell as many daytonas as they want to release, same with GMT BLRO at 12k.

I can only assume they’re playing the (very) long game. and don’t expect this bubble to last either.

If they try and meet demand now, they risk flooding the market and a big price hike now would be hard to walk back from later.

893bet · 21-09-2020 9:23am

The demand is driven by the secondary market.

I’d they make then blro 12k, will there still be a 100 % premium? Sell for 24k?

Doubtful.Will demand at retail then start to dry up as the profit is gone? May Ly buyers may not want to flip (but it’s nice knowing that you are in the black).

I think they are playing the longer game. Steel sports are not a huge percentage of their sales and I have no doubt this demand is pulling up the other models like DJ and OP.

Ri_Nollaig · 21-09-2020 10:13am

Cyrus wrote: »

i really dont understand why they arent increasing their prices,

youd assume at £15k they would sell as many daytonas as they want to release, same with GMT BLRO at 12k.

I have often wondered the same thing but the "playing the long game" is a good point. Its the PM models where Rolex like to fleece people it seems (check out the RRP of the blue submariner!). Maybe they are happy for the "cheap" SS models to filter into ADs/greys to just increase their image knowing they get money from those models and still probably sell a boat load of PM (DJ/DD/Celini/Submariners/etc) models.

Do AD's pay a fortune for the privilege of being an AD, so do Rolex make most of their money from that given they don't have any actual retail side.

Correct me if I am wrong but they are the only big independent watchmaker left? Not part of some much larger group like swatch or some other private equity group. (other than Seiko and Casio anyways)

Cyrus · 21-09-2020 10:17am

Ri_Nollaig wrote: »

I have often wondered the same thing but the "playing the long game" is a good point. Its the PM models where Rolex like to fleece people it seems (check out the RRP of the blue submariner!). Maybe they are happy for the "cheap" SS models to filter into ADs/greys to just increase their image knowing they get money from those models and still probably sell a boat load of PM (DJ/DD/Celini/Submariners/etc) models.

Do AD's pay a fortune for the privilege of being an AD, so do Rolex make most of their money from that given they don't have any actual retail side.

Correct me if I am wrong but they are the only big independent watchmaker left? Not part of some much larger group like swatch or some other private equity group. (other than Seiko and Casio anyways)

patek are independent, as are Audemars.

Fitz II · 21-09-2020 11:43am

Rolex have a weird "charity" business structure. The company operates as a actual charity if you can believe it. Within the charter there is a limit to the price increases they can but on their watches. That's why they are pushing the precious metal watch's, the margin on them is far greater than the stainless.

They push out an alleged 900k to 1,000,000 watches a year, 10 times Patek and AP combined. A Lange et Shonne only do something like 8k watches a year. Rolex are a behemoth.

There is no scarcity of Rolex watches, you can have any watch you want today or tomorrow. The only scarcity is of cheap retail watches from AD's
They dont seem to spend that much on R&D - mostly recycling and updating their classic designs. Movements are built for reliability rather than display, packaging or complexity.
They spend a ton on branding and marketing - nobody does it better, the brand recognition is almost 100% world wide.

Its an amazing thing really, totally counter intuative, they alienate their customer base but people just come back for more. Its like some form of abusive relationship

banie01 · 21-09-2020 11:53am

Fitz II wrote: »

Its an amazing thing really, totally counter intuative, they alienate their customer base but people just come back for more. Its like some form of abusive relationship

Talk about treating us mean to keep us keen

It really puts meat on the bones of that story from TZ-UK about an AD wanting a watch CV before they sold to customers :eek:

Do we start a support group? For abused Rolex waitlisters?

If memory serves when you picked up your PM Daytona, it wasn't at much of a premium over a grey market SS model?
That's the kind of craziness I can't get my head around.
I mean I have a slew of "collectibles" lots that are even mass produced but the stuff I own that has immediate value is either signed or rare.
Not artificially restricted, and if it was I wouldn't want it.

It really is a magnificently malevolent marketing strategy that all too many of us are really happy to lap up.

Fitz II · 21-09-2020 12:00pm

I bought my Daytona for 5 grand less than Stainless Ceramic Daytona's on the grey and half its retail price. People just got so blinded with the ceramic ones that the older ones got left behind. Its changed now and the gold ones are a couple grand more than the ceramic ones but still under retail. If you want a daytona buy precious metal at the moment. If you want an investment then the stainless is better at the moment. There is a 2019 Hulk on adverts at the moment for 17750....whats that about? and to be honest its probably not that bad a price at the moment.

893bet · 21-09-2020 12:06pm

Fitz II wrote: »

I bought my Daytona for 5 grand less than Stainless Ceramic Daytona's on the grey and half its retail price. People just got so blinded with the ceramic ones that the older ones got left behind. Its changed now and the gold ones are a couple grand more than the ceramic ones but still under retail. If you want a daytona buy precious metal at the moment. If you want an investment then the stainless is better at the moment. There is a 2019 Hulk on adverts at the moment for 17750....whats that about? and to be honest its probably not that bad a price at the moment.

I looked and almost through the same. Perception. Like petrol price (not that you would know).

At 1.30 a litre......it’s too dear it’s too dear
Up to 1.70 a litre.....it too dear
Back to 1.30 a litre......good thing prices dropped it was far to dear at 1.70. Good value now.

Rolex 01/09/2020 - predictions?

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