Rolex 01/09/2020 - predictions?

Cyrus

unkel wrote: »

So, the Kermit and the other steel subs will obviously have waiting lists, probably longer than ever before. What's the expectation for the OPs? Are the ADs going to have some in stock?

I'd say if I walked into Weir's tomorrow and they had a turquoise 41, I could be tempted to buy it there and then. Be bold, live a little

Not if Elton John walks in ahead of you

Cienciano

People queuing up for the new sub

Ri_Nollaig

wersal gummage wrote: »

I was on a waiting list for one (and I have to say I found the very idea most bizarre) and by the time I was offered a watch I had changed my mind and bought a different brand.

what were you trying to get?
I was on a "waiting list" for an OP39 in white in Keanes Cork.
Ring me yesterday, to be fair, and asked if I wanted to move to the new OP41, went for the one in black. See what happens I guess.

And I thought I was getting the "easy to get" model :rolleyes:

Oafley Jones

unkel wrote: »

So, the Kermit and the other steel subs will obviously have waiting lists, probably longer than ever before. What's the expectation for the OPs? Are the ADs going to have some in stock?

I'd say if I walked into Weir's tomorrow and they had a turquoise 41, I could be tempted to buy it there and then. Be bold, live a little

I have to say, I really like the colour. It's not without precedent either for me; AP had a similar shade for the Royal Oak Offshore Diver. I love it. My wife called it appalling. Thing is, I'd never wear it.... Also, cost.



As for the Rolex; as much as I like it, it'd hard to spend that much money on a novelty, when for the same money you'd get the new 40mm GMTs from Grand Seiko, or the new JLC Master Control Date.

unkel

unkel wrote: »

So, the Kermit and the other steel subs will obviously have waiting lists, probably longer than ever before. What's the expectation for the OPs? Are the ADs going to have some in stock?

Just off the phone to Weir's and they don't have and won't have any stock of any of the new colours of any of the OP sizes. Waiting list for all of them.

Oafley Jones wrote: »

I have to say, I really like the colour. It's not without precedent either for me

Same here. I had my blue Seamaster on a turquoise Isofrane all last summer. Love the colour. And unlike Cyrus I am not a bit confused about my sexuality. I wear pink shirts and turquoise watches no bother :pac:

Cyrus

unkel wrote: »

Just off the phone to Weir's and they don't have and won't have any stock of any of the new colours of any of the OP sizes. Waiting list for all of them.



Same here. I had my blue Seamaster on a turquoise Isofrane all last summer. Love the colour. And unlike Cyrus I am not a bit confused about my sexuality. I wear pink shirts and turquoise watches no bother :pac:

no confusion here, i wear pink shorts too :pac::p

C0N0R

Wishful thinking here but if an AD had stock of the op39 would there be any likely reduction? Any idea of pricing of the new ones?

893bet

C0N0R wrote: »

Wishful thinking here but if an AD had stock of the op39 would there be any likely reduction? Any idea of pricing of the new ones?

No. Prices will be strong on second market for years to come due to a very short production run.

unkel

Not a chance of a reduction of the old model. And they probably don't have any OP39 in stock either. Weir's didn't when I was there a few months ago. Mainly just lady's Rolex and a horrible DJ36 with fluted bezel. Don't buy that until you are at least 110 years old

Pricing of the new ones is on the Rolex website

Ri_Nollaig

Out of interest, as it not really clear anywhere.

Are they applying the new (temporary) VAT rate of 21% to these prices?

unkel

The prices on the Rolex website are all including the VAT. They didn't change because of a tiny VAT change in a tiny country that is not material economically in the eurozone

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

I’ll try in a week or two see what they offer for mine

took them longer than normal

£12.5k

not bad

unkel

What you pay for it? Seems low, but that's watchfinders of course the greedy bastards

Would you get GBP14k for it on a private sale on Chrono24?

unkel

Unworn 2020 on eBay for £17,995 accepting offers. Would probably accept £17.5k but I would try £17k. The most desirable of them all. Gives a bit of a marker. Some of the asking prices on eBay are just ludicrous, as usual. A bit like an old sh1tty iPhone with Fortnite installed for ten grand

Linky

Cyrus

unkel wrote: »

What you pay for it? Seems low, but that's watchfinders of course the greedy bastards

Would you get GBP14k for it on a private sale on Chrono24?

it was 5 years ago, and i traded a black sub against it, probably added 1k, so maybe 6k all in.

yeah maybe 14k but to be honest whats the point, unless i can replace it with similar at retail its a waste of time

unkel

Go on the waiting list for a Cermit?

Didn't realise you have it 5 years, they weren't even all that popular back then I think? Fair play!

893bet

Easy forget the price rises really is only the last 4 years. Compounded the last 2 years.

Cyrus

unkel wrote: »

Go on the waiting list for a Cermit?

Didn't realise you have it 5 years, they weren't even all that popular back then I think? Fair play!

mate of mine has managed to get a BLRO gmt and a ND sub from harrods the past 6 weeks, i need to try harder. he is on the cermit wait list.

Oafley Jones

Cyrus wrote: »

mate of mine has managed to get a BLRO gmt and a ND sub from harrods the past 6 weeks, i need to try harder. he is on the cermit wait list.

What's his spend history?

Cyrus

Oafley Jones wrote: »

What's his spend history?

very very recent, althought he did buy a 37.5mm AP Royal oak first so that got him noticed.

He was then happy to buy an exp 1 and 2 (which he immediately sold at a small profit) and that got him the BLRO and the ND sub last week.

this has all happened over 6 months.

893bet

That AP is prob a 40 grand watch.

Cyrus

893bet wrote: »

That AP is prob a 40 grand watch.

no £20k it was a std 37.5mm royal oak.

Black Sheep

Royal Oaks... I love them, whatever variant, Offshores included.

Cyrus

Black Sheep wrote: »

Royal Oaks... I love them, whatever variant, Offshores included.

well he wanted the AP it was his 40th present to himself and then he got the rolexes he also wanted within a few months, not bad going really

he had waited a year for the AP aswell, it wasnt as if he walked in and purchased it

unkel

Cyrus wrote: »

took them longer than normal

£12.5k

not bad

Cheapskates at WF

Other dealers are offering around the £14k mark so it seems. For worn but complete set

Cyrus

unkel wrote: »

Cheapskates at WF

Other dealers are offering around the £14k mark so it seems. For worn but complete set

where did you hear that Unkel?

unkel

On a certain other forum

Oafley Jones

Cyrus wrote: »

well he wanted the AP it was his 40th present to himself and then he got the rolexes he also wanted within a few months, not bad going really

he had waited a year for the AP aswell, it wasnt as if he walked in and purchased it

I’m surprised. I’d have thought a standard AP in Harrod’s would get you as much as a Swatch would in Weir’s.

Yyhhuuu

I was looking for a secondhand Rolex submariner two tone black. Any recommendations on where to buy as keenly priced as possible. I heard about chrono 24. I'd be willing to travel. I suppose there is a limited availability in Ireland. I suppose papers are essential. Apart from this how do you verify you're buying the genuine article? I know little about watches. Any tips greatly appreciated.

Fitz II

Know I am late here but a couple of my observations on this release.

1. I sold a hulk just before the new releases, and they are still the same price as before on the private sale market and internet forums. Dealers are not offering more but they have raised the sales prices. You would want rocks in your head to buy a hulk for 20k.

2. The new OP with coloured dials is interesting, but I get a whif of a "gotta catch em all" thing to appeal to collectors of a complete set of the new colours. Also its a transparent attempt by rolex to push the hype bubble onto the OP.

3. New Cermit is boring, the hulk was more interesting.

4. New sub is nice enough, shame you cant buy one.

5. Skydweller on rubber is a funny choice, its a dressy watch.

6. Blue WG Sub is a stunner, thats where I would go if I wanted to drop retail on a PM Rolex.

7. Rolex is getting tedious at this stage and this hype train is out of control. I am getting off personally.

Wibbs

Fitz II wrote: »

Rolex is getting tedious at this stage and this hype train is out of control. I am getting off personally.

It's a bit mad at the moment alright. Driven by fans/buyers, stoked by Rolex supply. They are and pretty much always have been* absolute masters of responding to trends both in watch design and tech and the market. They always keep a respectful distance from it and let their fanbase do their marketing for them which is another completely genius move.




*even quartz didn't throw them off by much. The digital did, but that(and the strong Swiss franc in the 70's) threw the entire Swiss industry off. Ever see their in house design for a Rolex digital? The horror, the horror.

unkel

Fitz II wrote: »

1. I sold a hulk just before the new releases, and they are still the same price as before on the private sale market and internet forums. Dealers are not offering more but they have raised the sales prices.

Howdie Fitz

I think you're wrong there. Several reports of private owners being offered GBP14k for a brand new hulk by traders. Not by watchfinders obviously because they offer way below par.

Agreed that anyone buying one for GBP20k needs their head examined. Or anyone buying for GBP15-16k for that matter, but the latter seems to be where you need to go if you want one now

Fitz II

unkel wrote: »

Howdie Fitz

I think you're wrong there. Several reports of private owners being offered GBP14k for a brand new hulk by traders. Not by watchfinders obviously because they offer way below par.

Agreed that anyone buying one for GBP20k needs their head examined. Or anyone buying for GBP15-16k for that matter, but the latter seems to be where you need to go if you want one now

sold a hulk to watchfinder 4 years old worn for 13500gbp a month ago, they are not offering much more on "unworn" 2020 versions now. The professional buyers are buying low and selling high. Watchfinder were sitting on 50 hulks when I went to sell mine and were hungry to more to feed the ravenous dogs.

Hulk is a nice watch, very nice indeed. But Rolex only think its worth 9k euro. It just cant complete in the 20k+ bracket, its a mass produced, machine finished watch in stainless. For 20k you could have a precious patek calatrava and a black bay 58 blue and some change left over.

unkel

Fitz II wrote: »

sold a hulk to watchfinder 4 years old worn for 13500gbp a month ago

Well in fairness, you traded up, so it's not really possible to put a value like that on your trade in without taking into account what you traded it for and how much was your cost to change. Just like with cars

Fitz II

unkel wrote: »

Well in fairness, you traded up, so it's not really possible to put a value like that on your trade in without taking into account what you traded it for and how much was your cost to change. Just like with cars

But I think we can both agree that the sale prices on these is nowhere near the asking prices, sale prices have not significant increased the 50% the asking prices have, thats where is weirdness is. Your hulk is only worth 23k while you own it, if you try and sell it immediatly devalues 9k for some reason from traders. The looney prices are only going to last a few months, until the new ones come along and take the attention away.

unkel

And whatever the watch, personally I'd rather buy from a private seller at about the value that watchfinders would offer them, not the 5k extra that traders have them priced for or the 3k extra they actually sell it for

893bet

unkel wrote: »

And whatever the watch, personally I'd rather buy from a private seller at about the value that watchfinders would offer them, not the 5k extra that traders have them priced for or the 3k extra they actually sell it for

I prefer to buy at that price also (as well all want the best deal) but that really is the wrong way of thinking and bad for the private market overall.

The private price should not equal the trade price.

It should be

8k trade value
9k private value
10k dealer value

Or something like that. By pushing sellers to sell at WF prices....what happens.....well he will sell to WF as why deal with a stranger when I can hassle free deal with WF and maybe get a favourable trade.

unkel

Ah no I fully agree. From a private buyer's point of view, I'd love buying at trade value, but that's more wishful thinking than anything. And WF offers are barely even trade prices, they are for people who either want to trade in their watch or people desperate to get the cash, couldn't be bothered with the hassle of selling privately or just ignorant enough not to know any other channels to sell their watch

Again exact same as with cars.

Yyhhuuu

unkel wrote: »

And whatever the watch, personally I'd rather buy from a private seller at about the value that watchfinders would offer them, not the 5k extra that traders have them priced for or the 3k extra they actually sell it for

Forgive my ignorance but how do you source a genuine private seller and how do you guard against buying a counterfeit apart from asking for papers which might also be counterfeit.

unkel

That's the thing that worries us all. The only advice I can give there is either "buy the seller" - buy from someone you know you can trust - or have your watch professionally verified before you buy

Fitz II

unkel wrote: »

That's the thing that worries us all. The only advice I can give there is either "buy the seller" - buy from someone you know you can trust - or have your watch professionally verified before you buy

Box and papers mean nothing, I can order a set of bogus papers for a watch online for 50 euro any serial number I want. Genuine boxes for Rolex are about 60 euro on ebay. Box and papers do absolutely nothing to verify a watch and peoples obsession with it is a amateur concern. As unkle says otherwise....

Rootsblower

I follow the Facebook page of a grey market watch dealer based in Belfast. The latest update included the lines:

Invest in a Rolex..... You can’t go wrong.

Dutch Tulips come to mind!!

unkel

For the craic, any linky to them?

banie01

Rootsblower wrote: »

I follow the Facebook page of a grey market watch dealer based in Belfast. The latest update included the lines:

Invest in a Rolex..... You can’t go wrong.

Dutch Tulips come to mind!!

It's going mad, hulk prices since the 1st are bloody mental.
100% Mortgages and sure aren't property prices only going up and ya can buy a 4 bed and rent out one of the rooms...

That worked out great back in the noughties didn't it

I do hope they get a soft landing, or at least that people buy what they want, and will enjoy regardless of how the investment fares.

Rootsblower

unkel wrote: »

For the craic, any linky to them?

https://www.facebook.com/610233875675665/posts/3664300406935648/?extid=xUWwCCfaKH8wWq8H&d=n

Hope that works

Rootsblower

One of the Hulks in the link is priced at £17495.

Madness, absolute madness to pay that for a Hulk

It’ll all end in tears for some.

Ri_Nollaig

ignoring all this Hulk madness.

Keane's in Cork offered me one of the new OP41's in black (was on the list for OP39 in white with them).
think I should go for it? had heart sit on white but don't fancy now paying over the odds for it on chrono24 (seems like its going for +1,500€) there

Fitz II

Ri_Nollaig wrote: »

ignoring all this Hulk madness.

Keane's in Cork offered me one of the new OP41's in black (was on the list for OP39 in white with them).
think I should go for it? had heart sit on white but don't fancy now paying over the odds for it on chrono24 (seems like its going for +1,500€) there

If you want the watch buy it, if you are after a flip I dont think there is enough meat on it for a "catch and release". If you are flipping it dont photo with any bit of the serial visable cause Rolex will spot it and give out to Keans and blacklist you.

The new OP were designed exactly to do this, to sell into people waiting for another watch with talk of appreciation potential.

893bet

Ri_Nollaig wrote: »

ignoring all this Hulk madness.

Keane's in Cork offered me one of the new OP41's in black (was on the list for OP39 in white with them).
think I should go for it? had heart sit on white but don't fancy now paying over the odds for it on chrono24 (seems like its going for +1,500€) there

Don’t settle on the black41 if the white39 is what you wanted.

Ri_Nollaig

Fitz II wrote: »

If you want the watch buy it, if you are after a flip I dont think there is enough meat on it for a "catch and release". If you are flipping it dont photo with any bit of the serial visable cause Rolex will spot it and give out to Keans and blacklist you.

The new OP were designed exactly to do this, to sell into people waiting for another watch with talk of appreciation potential.

Was never planning on flipping, that's the thing, or atleast not till a good few years later.
I actually liked the simple dial of the OP, if anything put off now by the new strange colours in them and the double-batons.
The only other Rolex I was eying up was the Explorer I, basically a three hander in Stainless Steel.

Already have an Omega Seamaster so don't really have an interest in the Rolex Submariner/Seadewller etc, well if one landed on my feet I'd hardly see no but we all know thats not going to happen by accident.