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29-08-2020, 20:47   #1
M.T. Cranium
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September 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for September, 2020. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during September.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during September (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during September.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during September.

6. BONUS -- We have not had a really short-range forecasting challenge in a while, so for this month, predict the amount of rain (mm) expected on Wed 2nd at Dublin (A) and Cork (A). Anyone entering the contest after 0300h 2nd will score zero but the late penalties will be relaxed slightly to compensate. If you enter sooner but wish to amend your short-range forecast then either edit your post or send me a PM or post again.

Deadline will be 0300h Tuesday 1st. In view of the bonus penalty, the overall late penalties will be 1 point per six hours to 0300h 2nd (and these can still enter the bonus), then just the 10 points for missing the bonus to 0300h 3rd, then adding 1 point per hour after that for any really late entries.
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30-08-2020, 12:03   #2
200motels
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200motels____13.2_ 23.5_1.1 _ 88_ 101___ Cork 22mm Dublin 25mm
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30-08-2020, 12:12   #3
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Rikand ___ 13.0 ____ 24.0 ____ 1.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ Cork 5mm Dublin 12mm

Edited dublin to 12 mm before the deadline

Last edited by Rikand; 01-09-2020 at 00:34.
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30-08-2020, 13:50   #4
pauldry
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Pauldry___ 13.6____ 22.5____ 0.3 ____ 120____ 95 ____ Cork 15mm Dublin 9mm
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30-08-2020, 14:58   #5
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Artane2002___ 13.4____ 23.8____ -0.2 ____ 110____ 95 ____ Cork 12mm Dublin 8mm
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30-08-2020, 19:37   #6
WesternStorm
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WesternStorm___ 12.9____ 23.2____ 1.5 ____ 98____ 103 ____ Cork 9mm Dublin 7mm
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30-08-2020, 20:14   #7
sunflower3
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Sunflower3___ 13.2____ 22.8____ 1.0 ____ 100____ 95 ____ Cork 5.5mm Dublin 7.5mm
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30-08-2020, 21:55   #8
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Gonzo____13.4_ 22.9_-1.8 _ 72_ 116___ Cork 19mm Dublin 7mm
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30-08-2020, 23:46   #9
Bsal
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Bsal___ 12.9 ____ 21.9 ____ -1.0 ____ 105 ____ 95 ____ Cork 6mm Dublin 7.5mm
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31-08-2020, 00:05   #10
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sryanbruen___ 13.3____ 22.2____ -0.3 ____ 90____ 100 ____ Cork 9mm Dublin 6mm
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31-08-2020, 06:56   #11
M.T. Cranium
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From MTC ____ 14.0 _ 24.5 _ 0.0 _ 102 _ 105 __ Cork 10.5 mm, Dub (A) 8.8 mm

NormaL ______ 13.1 _ 25.5 _-1.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ Cork 3.0 mm, Dub (A) 16.0 mm (GFS numerical output)

Here are some answers to questions nobody asked yet but might ask ...

(a) what if I want to revise my bonus answers after the deadline but before the cut-off 24h later?

-- answer -- you can but you then take the late penalty overall at time of revision.

(b) what if a lot of the predicted rain falls on Tuesday evening and is not in Wednesday's totals?

-- answer -- your only challenge is to predict the Wednesday totals, this is part of the challenge.

(c) what is the actual period that verifies my predictions?

-- from details of some rainfall totals in the August bonus, it appears to me that the climate day is 00z to 00z and not midnight to midnight (00z is currently 0100h). This is because they counted a very heavy amount at Cork, Valentia, Roches Point and Sherkin on the day previous to civil time for 0000-0100.

Let's hope the rain doesn't push in until around 0100h so this question won't be contaminated by a lot of the rain falling too early. Worth considering the timing aspect in your predictions though.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 01-09-2020 at 02:54.
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31-08-2020, 08:25   #12
mr.stonewall
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MrStonewall____13.7___23.7___-0.4___82___110__cork 8mm___dublin 5mm
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31-08-2020, 08:58   #13
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DOCARCH ___ 12.9 ____ 22.8 ____ -0.4 ____ 105 ____ 115 ____ Cork 12.2mm Dublin 3.8mm
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31-08-2020, 10:11   #14
dasa29
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Dasa29 ___ 13.3 ____ 24.0 ____ -1.0 ____ 95 ____ 125 ____ Cork 12mm Dublin 10mm
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31-08-2020, 10:28   #15
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Tazio____ 12.5____ 21.0____ 1.5____ 100____ 95____ Cork 9mm Dublin 25mm

Last edited by Tazio; 31-08-2020 at 13:16.
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