September 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for September, 2020. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 deg C.

2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during September.

3. Predict the MIN temperature during September (see 2 above for overview).

4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during September.

5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during September.

6. BONUS -- We have not had a really short-range forecasting challenge in a while, so for this month, predict the amount of rain (mm) expected on Wed 2nd at Dublin (A) and Cork (A). Anyone entering the contest after 0300h 2nd will score zero but the late penalties will be relaxed slightly to compensate. If you enter sooner but wish to amend your short-range forecast then either edit your post or send me a PM or post again.

Deadline will be 0300h Tuesday 1st. In view of the bonus penalty, the overall late penalties will be 1 point per six hours to 0300h 2nd (and these can still enter the bonus), then just the 10 points for missing the bonus to 0300h 3rd, then adding 1 point per hour after that for any really late entries.

200motels

200motels____13.2_ 23.5_1.1 _ 88_ 101___ Cork 22mm Dublin 25mm

Rikand

Rikand ___ 13.0 ____ 24.0 ____ 1.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ Cork 5mm Dublin 12mm

Edited dublin to 12 mm before the deadline

pauldry

Pauldry___ 13.6____ 22.5____ 0.3 ____ 120____ 95 ____ Cork 15mm Dublin 9mm

Artane2002

Artane2002___ 13.4____ 23.8____ -0.2 ____ 110____ 95 ____ Cork 12mm Dublin 8mm

WesternStorm

WesternStorm___ 12.9____ 23.2____ 1.5 ____ 98____ 103 ____ Cork 9mm Dublin 7mm

sunflower3

Sunflower3___ 13.2____ 22.8____ 1.0 ____ 100____ 95 ____ Cork 5.5mm Dublin 7.5mm

Gonzo

Gonzo____13.4_ 22.9_-1.8 _ 72_ 116___ Cork 19mm Dublin 7mm

Bsal

Bsal___ 12.9 ____ 21.9 ____ -1.0 ____ 105 ____ 95 ____ Cork 6mm Dublin 7.5mm

sryanbruen

sryanbruen___ 13.3____ 22.2____ -0.3 ____ 90____ 100 ____ Cork 9mm Dublin 6mm

M.T. Cranium

From MTC ____ 14.0 _ 24.5 _ 0.0 _ 102 _ 105 __ Cork 10.5 mm, Dub (A) 8.8 mm

NormaL ______ 13.1 _ 25.5 _-1.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ Cork 3.0 mm, Dub (A) 16.0 mm (GFS numerical output)

Here are some answers to questions nobody asked yet but might ask ...

(a) what if I want to revise my bonus answers after the deadline but before the cut-off 24h later?

-- answer -- you can but you then take the late penalty overall at time of revision.

(b) what if a lot of the predicted rain falls on Tuesday evening and is not in Wednesday's totals?

-- answer -- your only challenge is to predict the Wednesday totals, this is part of the challenge.

(c) what is the actual period that verifies my predictions?

-- from details of some rainfall totals in the August bonus, it appears to me that the climate day is 00z to 00z and not midnight to midnight (00z is currently 0100h). This is because they counted a very heavy amount at Cork, Valentia, Roches Point and Sherkin on the day previous to civil time for 0000-0100.

Let's hope the rain doesn't push in until around 0100h so this question won't be contaminated by a lot of the rain falling too early. Worth considering the timing aspect in your predictions though.

mr.stonewall

MrStonewall____13.7___23.7___-0.4___82___110__cork 8mm___dublin 5mm

DOCARCH

DOCARCH ___ 12.9 ____ 22.8 ____ -0.4 ____ 105 ____ 115 ____ Cork 12.2mm Dublin 3.8mm

dasa29

Dasa29 ___ 13.3 ____ 24.0 ____ -1.0 ____ 95 ____ 125 ____ Cork 12mm Dublin 10mm

Tazio

Tazio____ 12.5____ 21.0____ 1.5____ 100____ 95____ Cork 9mm Dublin 25mm

John mac

john mac ___ 13.3____ 23.5____ 0.2 ____ 110____ 95 ____ Cork 8mm Dublin 4mm

Joe Public

Joe Public ___ 13.3 ____ 25.5 ____ - 1.5 ____ 130 ____ 95 ____ Cork 15mm Dublin 12mm

kindredspirit

Kindred Spirit ___ 12.9 ___ 22.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 105 ___ 95 ___ Cork 12mm Dublin 12mm

mickger844posts

mickger844posts___ 13.4____ 22.1____ 1.3 ____ 100____ 110 ____ Cork 10mm Dublin 8mm

dacogawa

Dacogawa___ 13.4___ 23.5___ -0.2 ___ 155___ 90 ___ Cork 3mm Dublin 12mm

Tae laidir

Tae laidir ___ 13.4 __ 21.4 __ -2.0 __ 134 __ 104 __ Cork 6mm Dublin 8mm

Jpmarn

Jpmarn ____ 13.2 _ 23.8_ 0.4 _ 115 _ 110 __ Cork 12.5 mm, Dub (A) 18.8 mm

mrskinner

Skinner _____12.5____24.0°____1.0°____130____90____C17mm, D17mm.

adam240610

Adam240610 __ 12.8___ 23.3___ 0.1 ___ 85___120 __ Cork- 4mm, Dublin-10mm

Forgot completely

waterways

waterways ____ 13.3 _ 24.3 _ -2.0 _ 107 _ 108 __ Cork 4.1 mm Dublin 17.6 mm

appledrop

Appledrop 12.6 _22.5 _1.2 75% 85% Cork 10mm Dublin 13mm

BLIZZARD7

BLIZZARD7____ 13.7 _ 26.0 _ 0.0 _ 125 _ 105 __ Cork 11.5 mm, Dub (A) 8.8 mm

I always manage to be just a little late (or very)

M.T. Cranium

Good news in general as it appears everyone made it by the deadline with time to spare, and the rain didn't arrive early (in fact as of 0300h nothing much had fallen in either location, Mace Head on the other hand had 8.0 mm in one hour).

By the time I get a table of forecasts up, this may be settled already. Most of my weather forum month (on three sites) is pretty quiet but days one to four are non-stop or could be. Have placed scoring August ahead of the table of forecasts in my list of things to get done but as I can't start that until MS appears, I may do it in the other order.

appledrop

Eh I think we may have all underestimated the rainfall in Dublin today.



The only way to describe the current rainfall is torrential. Surface flooding everywhere on roads. Unless it clears up later on we are heading for 20-30mm for day.

pauldry

Yes me too. Already 14mm there in 3 hours

pauldry

So far approx to 5pm

Dublin 20mm
Cork 8mm

M.T. Cranium

Table of forecasts for September 2020




FORECASTER _________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ 2nd Sept rain (Cork, DubA)

M.T. Cranium _________ 14.0 _ 24.5 _ 0.0 _ 102 _ 105 ___ 10.5 _ 8.8

BLIZZARD7 __ (-3) ____ 13.7 _ 26.0 _ 0.0 _ 125 _ 105 ___ 11.5 _ 8.8

MrStonewall __________ 13.7_ 23.7 _--0.4_ 082 _ 110 ____8.0 _ 5.0

Pauldry ______________13.6 _ 22.5 _ 0.3 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 15.0 _ 9.0

Artane2002 __________ 13.4 _ 23.8 _--0.2_ 110 _ 095 ___ 12.0 _ 8.0

Dacogawa ___________ 13.4 _ 23.5 _--0.2_ 155 _ 090 ____ 3.0 _12.0

Gonzo ______________ 13.4 _ 22.9 _--1.8_ 072 _ 116 ___ 19.0 _ 7.0

mickger844posts ______13.4 _ 22.1 _ 1.3 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 10.0 _ 8.0

Tae laidir ____________13.4 _ 21.4 _--2.0_ 134 _ 104 ____ 6.0 _ 8.0

Joe Public ___________ 13.3 _ 25.5 _--1.5_ 130 _ 095 ___ 15.0 _12.0

waterways __ (-2) ____ 13.3 _ 24.3 _--2.0_ 107 _ 108 ____ 4.1 _17.6

Dasa29 _____________ 13.3 _ 24.0 _--1.0_ 095 _ 125 ___ 12.0 _10.0

john mac ____________13.3 _ 23.5 _ 0.2 _ 110 _ 095 ____ 8.0 _ 4.0


____ Con Sensus _____ 13.3 _ 23.3 _ 0.0 _ 104 _ 101 ___ 10.3 _ 8.9


sryanbruen __________ 13.3 _ 22.2 _--0.3_ 090 _ 100 ____ 9.0 _ 6.0

Jpmarn _____________ 13.2 _ 23.8 _ 0.4 _ 115 _ 110 ___ 12.5 _18.8

200motels ___________13.2 _ 23.5 _ 1.1 _ 088 _ 101 ___ 22.0 _25.0

Sunflower3 __________13.2 _ 22.8 _ 1.0 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 5.5 _ 7.5


____ NormaL ________13.1 _ 25.5 _--1.0_ 100 _ 100 ____ 3.0 _16.0


Rikand _____________ 13.0 _ 24.0 _ 1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 5.0 _12.0

WesternStorm _______ 12.9 _ 23.2 _ 1.5 _ 098 _ 103 ____ 9.0 _ 7.0

DOCARCH __________ 12.9 _ 22.8 _--0.4_ 105 _ 115 ___ 12.2 _ 3.8

Kindred Spirit ________12.9 _ 22.0 _ 0.0 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 12.0 _12.0

Bsal _______________ 12.9 _ 21.9 _--1.0_ 105 _ 095 ____ 6.0 _ 7.5

Adam240610 __ (-1) __12.8 _ 23.3 _ 0.1 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 4.0 _10.0

Appledrop __ (-2) ____ 12.6 _ 22.5 _ 1.2 _ 075 _ 085 ___ 10.0 _13.0

MrSkinner ___________12.5 _ 24.0 _ 1.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___ 17.0 _17.0

Tazio _______________12.5 _ 21.0 _ 1.5 _ 100 _ 095 ____ 9.0 _25.0

=================================================

(NormaL prediction for the bonus is based on GFS "accumulated rainfall" differentials 00z 2nd - 00z 3rd at the contest deadline. This is "normal" in the sense that it's the normal way to predict the rainfall. The other way to score NormaL would be to take normal amounts of rainfall daily (2.5-3.0 mm) but obviously that would score zero for NormaL in this context.)

Would say already the most likely results are around 8 mm and 23 mm respectively, looks like Tazio, JPmarn and waterways had the best calls on this. GFS at least foresaw the regional trend better than many of our forecasts.

eon1208

14.0, 23.2, 1.2, 98, 92

Apologies late. Was so busy. Try to make time next month

M.T. Cranium

Okay I will score that and apply a penalty, same general idea as previous times, but coming in this late I won't alter the contest consensus.

So the results are Cork 8.1 mm, Dub(A) 23.1 mm.

Here's how I will score this, superbonus will be built into this method, you can score up to 6 points for each, so if you're in the top four in each, you'll get the two extra points, if close in one and tops in another, one extra. With 26 forecasts, there will be four scores at each level until reaching zero which will have just two. I expect a number of ties will complicate this (and con sensus, normal get their scores separately). In one case I moved a score from the five group to the six group due to similarity of error (MrSkinner, DubA).

So here's how it looks for scoring on the bonus question, numbers in brackets are departures from the actual amounts:

Score __ Cork ___________________________________ Dublin ______________________________

6 _ MrStonewall (-0.1), John mac (-0.1), _____________ 200 motels, Tazio (both 1.9) , JPmarn (-4.3)
___sryanbruen, Western Storm, Tazio (all 0.9) ________ waterways (-5.5), MrSkinner (-6.1)
___________________________________________________________________________________

5 _ mickger844posts (1.9), Appledrop (1.9), __________ NormaL (-7.1), Appledrop (-10.1)
___Bsal (-2.1), tae laidir (-2.1) _Con Sensus (2.2) _____ Rikand, Joe Public, dacogawa, KS (all -11.1)
___________________________________________________________________________________

4 _ M.T. Cranium (2.4), sunflower3 (-2.6), Rikand (-3.1) _ dasa29, Adam240610 (both -13.1)
___________________________________________________________________________________

3 _ BLIZZARD7 (3.4), Artane2002, KS, dasa29 (all 3.9) __ Pauldry (-14.1), MTC, BLIZ (-14.3), ConS (-14.2)
___________________________________________________________________________________

2 _ Adam240610 (-4.1), waterways (-4.0), ____________ Tae laidir, mickger844p, Artane2002 (all -15.1),
___DOCARCH (4.1), JPmarn (4.4) ___________________ sunflower3, Bsal (both -15.6)

___________________________________________________________________________________

1 _ Pauldry (6.9), Joe Public (6.9), ___________________ Western Storm, Gonzo (both -16.1)
___MrSkinner (8.9), dacogawa and NormaL (-5.1) _______ sryanbruen (-17.1), MrStonewall (-18.1)

___________________________________________________________________________________

0 _ Gonzo (10.9), 200motels (13.9) __________________ John mac (-19.1), DOCARCH (-19.3)
____________________________________________________________________________________


So the total scores are

12 _ Tazio (great work)

10 _ Appledrop

09 _ Rikand

08 _ Kindred Spirit, JPmarn, waterways, Con Sensus

07 _ sryanbruen, MrSkinner, Tae laidir, M.T. Cranium, MrStonewall, Western Storm,
____ mickger844posts, Bsal, dasa29

06 _ Adam240610, 200motels, John mac, sunflower3, dacogawa, BLIZZARD7, Joe Public, NormaL

05 _ Artane2002

04 _ Pauldry

03 _

02 _ DOCARCH

01 _ Gonzo

Tae laidir

Phoenix Park sneaked in a 22.5 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

So after the first week of September ...

IMT was 14.8 which is 0.7 above normal.

MAX of 22.5 probably nudged upward today. MIN yet to come.

PRC is 139% of normal, the trends were wetter further north, some southern locations were below normal.

SUN is at 74% of normal (444/600).

Yer bonus is already scored above, well done Tazio (12 points) and Appledrop (10). Rikand had 9/10 also.

pauldry

Oak Park 23.7c

pauldry

Pheonix Park 24.7c

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks ...

IMT 14.9 C, second week averaged 15.1, 1.4 above normal for the interval. Could say it's likely 15.1 after today.

MAX 24.7, MIN tbd **

PRC now at 97% of normal, after a dry week in most of the country except for the far north (grid average 54% but without Malin Head, about 30%).

SUN only 68.8% of normal, with this past week quite dull at 63.5% (381/600).

** Sooner or later we'll have some respectable mins but not yet.

Jpmarn

Min 2.4°C recorded at Markee 20th.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT on 14.8 with third week 14.5, 1.4 above normal for the period.

MAX 24.7 and MIN 2.4.

PRC down to 66% with the third week almost dry (5% of normal).

SUN recovered to 97.5% of normal, with the third week at 155% (929/600).

Rather cool this coming week but may recover slightly near end of month, even 11.0 for nine days would leave the outcome near highest forecast of 14.0. MAX likely done, MIN could drop a bit. PRC will bounce back and end close to normal, SUN will struggle to stay above 90% and may finish around 85.

Jpmarn

Min Now 1.0°C recorded at Mt Dillon 23rd.

appledrop

Currently -2 at Mt. Dillion.

pauldry

Good God.

Joe Public

appledrop wrote: »

Currently -2 at Mt. Dillion.

I think Markee Sligo was also hovering at -2C this morning.

sryanbruen

Markree -1.9C and Mt. Dillon -1.8C according to WOW.

compsys

We got to -3 in May and now -2 in September.

We didn’t get those types of temperatures in the pit of winter.

Only in Ireland.

appledrop

compsys wrote: »

We got to -3 in May and now -2 in September.

We didn’t get those types of temperatures in the pit of winter.

Only in Ireland.

As we know its 2020 all bets are off!

I'd say we will see -2 again tonight. Will be keeping an eye to see if it beats last nights.

Tae laidir

Markee Castle -2.1 yesterday.

appledrop

Mt Dillon got down to -2 again on Sat night but Markee Castle still lowest at -2.1.

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks (and I almost forgot to update) ...

IMT has plunged to 13.5, the fourth week average was 9.5, a full 2.9 deg below normal. ... This will probably lose another 0.1 a day or so and finish near 13.3.

MAX 24.7, MIN -2.1 -- probably both finals.

PRC has settled in at 68%, with the fourth week similar (76% of normal) ... would expect this to bump up to low 70s with the ongoing rainfall event, 75% seems about the limit mathematically.

SUN has edged past normal now and stands at 112% with week four quite sunny at 154% (assuming the update is actually an update because oddly these are the same numbers as week three produced) (925/600) ... anyway, rather cloudy tomorrow so this will likely finish near 110% if these numbers were in fact accurate. Will be checking the MS anyway.