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September 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-08-2020 8:47pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the IMT, mean temperature at five locations in Ireland (Claremorris, Casement, Mullingar, Oak Park, Shannon) for September, 2020. The 1981-2010 "normal" value is 13.1 deg C.

    2. Predict the MAX temperature at any regularly reporting Met-E station as reported in the Monthly Summary (and daily in the "yesterday's weather" section of their website), during September.

    3. Predict the MIN temperature during September (see 2 above for overview).

    4. Predict the PRC (rainfall at this time of year) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at eleven locations, namely Ballyhaise, Cork, Malin Head, Belmullet, Cork, Johnstown Castle, and the five locations for the IMT (section 1 above), during September.

    5. Predict the SUN (sunshine) as a percentage of normal values (1981-2010) at six locations, Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork and Valentia, during September.

    6. BONUS -- We have not had a really short-range forecasting challenge in a while, so for this month, predict the amount of rain (mm) expected on Wed 2nd at Dublin (A) and Cork (A). Anyone entering the contest after 0300h 2nd will score zero but the late penalties will be relaxed slightly to compensate. If you enter sooner but wish to amend your short-range forecast then either edit your post or send me a PM or post again.

    Deadline will be 0300h Tuesday 1st. In view of the bonus penalty, the overall late penalties will be 1 point per six hours to 0300h 2nd (and these can still enter the bonus), then just the 10 points for missing the bonus to 0300h 3rd, then adding 1 point per hour after that for any really late entries.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels____13.2_ 23.5_1.1 _ 88_ 101___ Cork 22mm Dublin 25mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,554 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ___ 13.0 ____ 24.0 ____ 1.0 ____ 90 ____ 120 ____ Cork 5mm Dublin 12mm

    Edited dublin to 12 mm before the deadline


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry___ 13.6____ 22.5____ 0.3 ____ 120____ 95 ____ Cork 15mm Dublin 9mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,858 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Artane2002___ 13.4____ 23.8____ -0.2 ____ 110____ 95 ____ Cork 12mm Dublin 8mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 24 WesternStorm


    WesternStorm___ 12.9____ 23.2____ 1.5 ____ 98____ 103 ____ Cork 9mm Dublin 7mm


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  • Registered Users Posts: 164 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3___ 13.2____ 22.8____ 1.0 ____ 100____ 95 ____ Cork 5.5mm Dublin 7.5mm


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,175 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Gonzo____13.4_ 22.9_-1.8 _ 72_ 116___ Cork 19mm Dublin 7mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal___ 12.9 ____ 21.9 ____ -1.0 ____ 105 ____ 95 ____ Cork 6mm Dublin 7.5mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,554 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen___ 13.3____ 22.2____ -0.3 ____ 90____ 100 ____ Cork 9mm Dublin 6mm

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    From MTC ____ 14.0 _ 24.5 _ 0.0 _ 102 _ 105 __ Cork 10.5 mm, Dub (A) 8.8 mm

    NormaL ______ 13.1 _ 25.5 _-1.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ Cork 3.0 mm, Dub (A) 16.0 mm (GFS numerical output)

    Here are some answers to questions nobody asked yet but might ask ...

    (a) what if I want to revise my bonus answers after the deadline but before the cut-off 24h later?

    -- answer -- you can but you then take the late penalty overall at time of revision.

    (b) what if a lot of the predicted rain falls on Tuesday evening and is not in Wednesday's totals?

    -- answer -- your only challenge is to predict the Wednesday totals, this is part of the challenge.

    (c) what is the actual period that verifies my predictions?

    -- from details of some rainfall totals in the August bonus, it appears to me that the climate day is 00z to 00z and not midnight to midnight (00z is currently 0100h). This is because they counted a very heavy amount at Cork, Valentia, Roches Point and Sherkin on the day previous to civil time for 0000-0100.

    Let's hope the rain doesn't push in until around 0100h so this question won't be contaminated by a lot of the rain falling too early. Worth considering the timing aspect in your predictions though.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 745 ✭✭✭ mr.stonewall


    MrStonewall____13.7___23.7___-0.4___82___110__cork 8mm___dublin 5mm


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,103 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH ___ 12.9 ____ 22.8 ____ -0.4 ____ 105 ____ 115 ____ Cork 12.2mm Dublin 3.8mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 457 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 ___ 13.3 ____ 24.0 ____ -1.0 ____ 95 ____ 125 ____ Cork 12mm Dublin 10mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 663 ✭✭✭ Tazio


    Tazio____ 12.5____ 21.0____ 1.5____ 100____ 95____ Cork 9mm Dublin 25mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,995 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac ___ 13.3____ 23.5____ 0.2 ____ 110____ 95 ____ Cork 8mm Dublin 4mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public ___ 13.3 ____ 25.5 ____ - 1.5 ____ 130 ____ 95 ____ Cork 15mm Dublin 12mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 12.9 ___ 22.0 ___ 0.0 ___ 105 ___ 95 ___ Cork 12mm Dublin 12mm


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts___ 13.4____ 22.1____ 1.3 ____ 100____ 110 ____ Cork 10mm Dublin 8mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,772 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa___ 13.4___ 23.5___ -0.2 ___ 155___ 90 ___ Cork 3mm Dublin 12mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 622 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir ___ 13.4 __ 21.4 __ -2.0 __ 134 __ 104 __ Cork 6mm Dublin 8mm


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,408 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn ____ 13.2 _ 23.8_ 0.4 _ 115 _ 110 __ Cork 12.5 mm, Dub (A) 18.8 mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 359 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner _____12.5____24.0°____1.0°____130____90____C17mm, D17mm.


  • Registered Users Posts: 747 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    Adam240610 __ 12.8___ 23.3___ 0.1 ___ 85___120 __ Cork- 4mm, Dublin-10mm

    Forgot completely


  • Registered Users Posts: 350 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ____ 13.3 _ 24.3 _ -2.0 _ 107 _ 108 __ Cork 4.1 mm Dublin 17.6 mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,608 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Appledrop 12.6 _22.5 _1.2 75% 85% Cork 10mm Dublin 13mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7____ 13.7 _ 26.0 _ 0.0 _ 125 _ 105 __ Cork 11.5 mm, Dub (A) 8.8 mm

    I always manage to be just a little late (or very)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,187 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Good news in general as it appears everyone made it by the deadline with time to spare, and the rain didn't arrive early (in fact as of 0300h nothing much had fallen in either location, Mace Head on the other hand had 8.0 mm in one hour).

    By the time I get a table of forecasts up, this may be settled already. Most of my weather forum month (on three sites) is pretty quiet but days one to four are non-stop or could be. Have placed scoring August ahead of the table of forecasts in my list of things to get done but as I can't start that until MS appears, I may do it in the other order.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,608 ✭✭✭ appledrop


    Eh I think we may have all underestimated the rainfall in Dublin today.



    The only way to describe the current rainfall is torrential. Surface flooding everywhere on roads. Unless it clears up later on we are heading for 20-30mm for day.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Yes me too. Already 14mm there in 3 hours


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,847 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    So far approx to 5pm

    Dublin 20mm
    Cork 8mm


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