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01-09-2020, 12:19   #1
Gonzo
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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

Thanks

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Summer 2020 is thankfully over now and we are in Autumn, a transitional season between Summer and Winter.

I think we could be in for a fairly average to good September overall, it is likely to be an improvement over much of the summer as there will be more dryer days with rainfall every few days rather than every single day. There is a lot of scatter involved with the weather over the next 2 weeks but there are certainly some warm signals showing with signs that we may get a settled spell at some stage this month.

Next Week may settled down with a gentle spell of sunny spells and temperatures reaching possibly high teens to low twenties. However this spell still has to be nailed down including it's duration, could last for a day or two, but it could also last close to a week.



it is possible that this spell of high pressure could end with a rather cool spell from the north or the Atlantic rolling back in.



It doesn't look like this September is going to be a scene of major disappointment like July and August were.

My wish for this Autumn is for things to settle down a few times and dry out the ground as I do not want to see a repeat of last Autumn's relentless deluges.
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04-09-2020, 20:57   #2
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After being under the influence of HP next week ( well on the edge of them anyway ) the ECM turns up the Jet close to us and the forecast becomes predominantly under the influence of LP systems +120 hrs with a few deep Lows showing up near to us. Not too much rain showing up earlier next week ( heaviest totals mostly confined to Atlantic coasts in the W and NW over high ground ) , goes on to show quite wet weather next weekend.











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05-09-2020, 11:12   #3
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Thanks so much for this Meteorite58 and Gonzo I really love these posts and I have missed them! I always learn a lot from your commentary. I know I'm off topic but just wanted to express my appreciation.
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05-09-2020, 11:32   #4
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I also want to thank Meteorite58 and Gonzo for there excellent reports during the summer .I am a farmer and with their reports I made all my silage in the fine weather windows we got in July and August .Another 2nd cut to be done in the coming week hopefully ,this is off marshy ground which was waterlogged up to last week but hopefully I will be able to get it done by Wed or Thursday .It makes all the difference to get this work done in the dry spells so thanks again for all yer forecasts!!
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05-09-2020, 16:41   #5
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Thanks meteorite is there any storms on the way on those charts
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05-09-2020, 17:53   #6
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No great expert , just a hobbyist with a keen interest but thanks for the kind words.

Quote:
Thanks meteorite is there any storms on the way on those charts
ECM on the 0z run does show a deep storm smack straight into the SW/W bringing strong winds across the country Sat night into Sunday morning but it was far higher off the N on the last run so would expect some chopping and changing for a bit yet. GFS on the latest run now showing a system at the same time but not as strong and further N. No sign of it on the GEM as yet.

ECM continues to show it very wet over the coming weekend and quite cool, certainly will be no doubt that it is Autumn. Unsettled weather with other LP's and waves knocking about



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05-09-2020, 18:07   #7
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Big early cold plunge down though Canada and the US next week could be the reason for the Jet firing up so much, dont know how long it will affect our weather but looking unsettled on the GFS well out into the run and in general keep the temperatures cool.













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05-09-2020, 20:25   #8
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A different look again on the ECM 12Z with the low much further South on this run and a deep low up off the NW later Sunday/ early Monday. Take some time to settle down especially with such a fast Jet close by.

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06-09-2020, 20:01   #9
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ECM for the last two runs has backed off the very unsettled weather it was showing for next weekend and a lot less rain also. Showing HP over Europe keeping the Atlantic Low well off the coast close to Iceland . GFS still a bit windy around Saturday and wet . Nights getting cool next week, ECM going on to show warmer weather Mon , Tues, Weds week. Still not there with anything reliable yet. ICON showing a deep low near Ireland during the weekend, UKMO seems to be keeping the LP's well off the NW.
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11-09-2020, 20:43   #10
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Hp dominating out to +240hrs, very little rain forecast in these charts

Showing pleasantly mild days for many with cooler nights developing towards the end of the run.

No doubt with so much Tropical storm activity happening at the moment it only takes some remnants to stray this way to throw the charts into disarray but no sign of that at present.









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15-09-2020, 16:10   #11
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ECM 0z showing some very unsettled weather from next Tuesday, shows it stormy in fact but will it be there on the next 12z run out later?

Met Éireann mentioning it possibly turning unsettled around mid week.
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15-09-2020, 16:20   #12
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GEM also turning very unsettled later next week.

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15-09-2020, 23:17   #13
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ECM showing it fairly wet from midweek but not showing the very strong winds it was showing earlier, does show LP's knocking about but not nearly as deep on this run. GFS is showing some very windy weather at the end of next week but way to early to know will this happen, the main thing is that the signals are there for some unsettled weather. Currently looking cooler next week also with signs of some very cool nights. Will we see frosts inland ?










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16-09-2020, 22:50   #14
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Looks mostly dry until next Tuesday when all models show frontal rain crossing the country. A reintroduction to LP's but nothing too windy showing up as yet. Looks to become increasingly wet and cooler from around next Tues/ Weds and the models continue to show some quite cool nights.







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17-09-2020, 14:58   #15
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a real taste of autumn could be on the way in a week's time with temperatures tumbling as winds potentially swing into the north.

A big change could be on the way as this very warm September could end on a very chilly note.

Currently we have +10 uppers across the country and by the end of next week we could have uppers close to -4C, this would definitely the first hard frost of the season and cold rain showers. Wouldn't be surprised to see some wintry conditions in the Scottish highlands if this pans out.






Daytime temperatures into single digits in northern half of the country a possibility



Temperatures by night possibly getting down to 0C


snowfall possible in Scottish highlands.


After this there is the possibility of high pressure establishing leading to some very chilly nights as well.

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