Cold Spell Discussion (Ireland): Cold/Frosty/Icy with Snow for some

Villain · 17-01-2013 11:06am

Met Eireann Have updated their online forecast

17 January 2013 09:51

Today

Some patches of fog and drizzle this morning and poor visibility in places. A few bright spells developing. However, wet and windy conditions will extend eastwards this afternoon and evening, with some heavy falls of rain in places later.

Strong to gale force southeasterly winds will develop and highest temperatures will range 6 to 10 degrees Celsius.
Tonight

The rain will clear from western Connacht, Munster and south Leinster tonight and the winds here will veer westerly and ease. Further east and north the rain will turn to sleet and snow. Minimum temperatures zero to 3 degrees.

Tomorrow

Further rain, sleet or snow over Ulster and parts of Leinster with some drifting snow and accumulations likely over high ground with the strong easterly winds just gradually easing.
Dry elsewhere apart from isolated showers. Highest temperatures ranging from 4 (in the NE) to 10 (in the S) degrees.

Outlook

Friday night: Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow over Ulster, northeast Connacht and northeast Leinster will gradually die out and clear spells will develop generally with just a few rain or hail showers in the west. A very cold night with a widespread severe air and ground frost and icy patches.
Saturday: Apart from isolated wintry showers a dry day with sunny spells. A very cold day with top temperatures only 2 to 6 degrees and there will be a widespread severe or very severe air and ground frost Saturday night with icy patches.
Sunday: A bitterly cold day; highest temperatures only 1 to 5 degrees in a strong to gale force easterly wind. Many areas will have a dry morning, just a few wintry showers in the east and south. Heavy rain and sleet will move in across Munster and south Leinster during the afternoon and evening turning to sleet and snow here on Sunday night with cloudy conditions further north and patchy sleet and snow.

WARNING for next week: There is a high probability of a severely cold week. Maxima are predicted to be in low single figures with severe air and ground frosts at night. Strong easterly winds up to mid-week will produce significant wind chill and make it feel bitterly cold everywhere. Some snow showers are possible especially in the east and south where there may be some accumulations but for most areas it will be mainly dry. Freezing fog may develop over the second half of the week as the winds drop and sub-zero temperatures then may persist during daytime.

davidsr20 · 17-01-2013 11:17am

Early hours mon morning

goosey93 · 17-01-2013 11:17am

dopolahpec wrote: »

That's 102 hours away. What about the 'locked in' snow for tomorrow that had everyone in a tizz since last night?

Looks like rain for everywhere bar north eastern six counties.

This 06z corrected everything further east as a result the risk of snow was decreased on this model run. You have to remember this is only one run and there will be plenty more chopping and changing right up until t0. So until then we wont be certain where it will snow and where it wont snow

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 17-01-2013 11:18am

This is a good run for the east for the next few days

davidsr20 · 17-01-2013 11:23am

t|nt|n wrote: »

This is a good run for the east for the next few days

No hope for the west ?

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 17-01-2013 11:24am

davidsr20 wrote: »

No hope for the west ?

Is that a rhetorical question ? :pac:

Rebelbrowser · 17-01-2013 11:27am

davidsr20 wrote: »

No hope for the west ?

If models verify as they presentlty show there will be plenty for all by Tuesday. Big if though....

dopolahpec · 17-01-2013 11:33am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

If models verify as they presentlty show there will be plenty for all by Tuesday. Big if though....

The key thing with this model watching is not to get caught up in hype. For instance yesterday morning there was a distinct sense that Ireland was going to miss out. The model output changed during the day, was interpreted by the contributors on here, and by nightime there was talk of blizzards and for employees of Met Eireann to be publicly flogged in the streets for not presenting the models as they were being interpreted on here, for Friday/Saturday, still 72 hours + out. Remember the mantra on here? 'IMO FI is 72 hours'...

Now, this morning we see a huge correction again in the models, a mere 36 hours out, as the balance between rain/snow is so fine, and I will bet my bottom dollar on no significant snowfall for the south before Saturday.

After Sunday there is a better chance

But remember the mantra

IMO FI is 72 hours...

whitebriar · 17-01-2013 11:37am

just on tomorrow-Friday
for the Dublin area,it currently looks like to me,there will be snow,at some point in the day.
It will turn to rain at times and back to snow again,especially in the city centre and coast.
Hilly areas inland in the capital,could see a mostly snow event,I'd favour lamb doyles out to Enniskerry and higher for better accumilations.

On in to Meath and Louth,as above only the snow risk is higher in my opinion tomorrow.

I don't see major urban areas in Wicklow getting snow on low ground and expect an all rain event in the south of the county.
I think the snowline in wexford is likely to be above 800ft.

That's what I think about tomorrow folks,this may change as fresher information comes in.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 17-01-2013 11:41am

I am actually surprised that there weren't more comments on that run

It was nice !

DOCARCH · 17-01-2013 11:41am

whitebriar wrote: »

just on tomorrow-Friday
for the Dublin area,it currently looks like to me,there will be snow,at some point in the day.
It will turn to rain at times and back to snow again,especially in the city centre and coast.

Agreed.

Anybody expecting a snowfest tomorrow, especially if they not living in higher terrain or are close to the coast, may be very disappointed.

dopolahpec · 17-01-2013 11:42am

+96 hours (Monday) -6 uppers making inroads into Kerry from the West!

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=154747

A pincer attack, with Ireland and the UK literally surrounded by cold uppers

BEASTERLY · 17-01-2013 11:44am

ECM 06z upper air temperatures are pretty poor. Hopefully this will be made up for by surface cold from the UK and the continent.

munsterlegend · 17-01-2013 11:44am

dopolahpec wrote: »

+96 hours (Monday) -6 uppers making inroads into Kerry from the West!

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=154747

I just can't get my head around that! how is this not being modified by the Atlantic?!

BEASTERLY · 17-01-2013 11:47am

munsterlegend wrote: »

I just can't get my head around that! how is this not being modified by the Atlantic?!

The surface air will be heavily modified.

downwiththatsor · 17-01-2013 11:50am

munsterlegend wrote: »

I just can't get my head around that! how is this not being modified by the Atlantic?!

It will be modified once we pass it on to ye:D Hopefully the intensity of precipitation and speed with which it arrives will help with keeping it less modified, fingers crossed. I live i n hope, at least the mountains should get a good covering, have not seen much on the hills as yet this winter.

munsterlegend · 17-01-2013 11:53am

downwiththatsor wrote: »

It will be modified once we pass it on to ye:D

always greedy for more down there!

if we get the colder air we might have a chance sunday evening/night and Monday.

Harps · 17-01-2013 12:02pm

-4C to -6C uppers from a cool westerly is perfectly normal for the time of year and usually only leads to high ground snow, check out archives for the first half of December last winter where we had that sort of setup quite regularly but only had brief high ground accumulations in the NW. Sea temps will be that bit colder now and with cold air already over the country it'll increase the risk of wintry showers but I wouldn't be expecting any real accumulation

whitebriar · 17-01-2013 12:06pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

The surface air will be heavily modified.

And there in lies the problem.
people forget that -6 air from the atlantic means rain as the warm ocean track will modify dewpoints from zero to 1000ft above sea level.

You need minus 10 uppers to guarantee snow from the west [that has happened eg a few xmas's ago when a northerly feed down the mid atlantic returned to Ireland as a false south westerly!]

Whereas when air is from the east,do you see,it can come in fast enough with a small enough water track (60 miles as opposed to a 1000 miles) in such a way as to even displace irish Positive sea dewpoints with negative ones courtesy of a frozen continent/ cold north sea and most importantly a cold Britain,minus 11 in Norfolk this morning in snow fields with very neg dp's,which after tomorrow will be similar over most of England and wales meaning increasingly neg dewpoints there etc

Rooy · 17-01-2013 12:08pm

Im going to try and not get excited yet about snow in the south , i think it is going to be Sat before we have a more accurate idea of a snow event for Sunday/Mon , but looks promising at the moment , but often things get downgraded when we get closer

munsterlegend · 17-01-2013 12:11pm

whitebriar wrote: »

And there in lies the problem.
people forget that -6 air from the atlantic means rain as the warm ocean track will modify dewpoints from zero to 1000ft above sea level.

You need minus 10 uppers to guarantee snow from the west [that has happened eg a few xmas's ago when a northerly feed down the mid atlantic returned to Ireland as a false south westerly!]

Whereas when air is from the east,do you see,it can come in fast enough with a small enough water track (60 miles as opposed to a 1000 miles) in such a way as to even displace irish Positive sea dewpoints with negative ones courtesy of a frozen continent/ cold north sea and most importantly a cold Britain,minus 11 in Norfolk this morning in snow fields with very neg dp's,which after tomorrow will be similar over most of England and wales meaning increasingly neg dewpoints there etc

But have we not got colder air from the east meeting the air flow from the west over Ireland?

sean555 · 17-01-2013 12:16pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

If models verify as they presentlty show there will be plenty for all by Tuesday. Big if though....

In an ideal world

munsterlegend · 17-01-2013 12:22pm

sean555 wrote: »

In an ideal world

Certainly not expecting any snow down here by Saturday! Met Eireann have a weather warning out:

Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued at 17 January 2013 - 11:06
Weather Advisory
Very heavy rain will spread into parts of Munster and Connacht on Thursday and will spread eastwards during the afternoon and evening. There will be some heavy falls with a risk of localised flooding in parts of Munster and Leinster.

The rain will be accompanied by strong to near gale force and gusty southeasterly winds.

There is a risk that the rain will turn to sleet and snow later on Thursday night and towards dawn. Parts of north Leinster and Ulster will be most at risk, with further snowfall during Friday with accumulations mostly on higher ground.

Staying very cold on Saturday for much of the country with a further threat of wintry showers. Very cold, frosty and icy at times

Valid from: 11:00 17th Jan 2013
Valid to: 20:00 19th Jan 2013

NufcNavan · 17-01-2013 12:22pm

Sky News seemed to be giving a sustained period of snowfall in the east for tonight/tomorrow morning?

Speak Now · 17-01-2013 12:23pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

ECM 06z upper air temperatures are pretty poor. Hopefully this will be made up for by surface cold from the UK and the continent.

Ah now Beasterly you should know better :P

lucy2010 · 17-01-2013 12:28pm

Has anyone a link to MTs ramp on netweather earlier - was the bomb lol

patneve2 · 17-01-2013 12:33pm

The positive aspect of tomorrow is that precipitation is likely to be heavy and persistent, this will help drag that colder air down. The negative aspect is that there will be a strong SE wind coming in from the sea making it marginal in coastal areas. I expect to see a mix of heavy rain, heavy sleet/ wet snow in Dublin tomorrow with snow above 200 m. Places like Cavan/Louth and NI could really hit the jackpot tomorrow (as well as higher areas in Wicklow). Obviously be cautious because charts can change

Spindle · 17-01-2013 12:36pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Certainly not expecting any snow down here by Saturday! Met Eireann have a weather warning out:

Warnings

Weather Warning

Issued at 17 January 2013 - 11:06
Weather Advisory
Very heavy rain will spread into parts of Munster and Connacht on Thursday and will spread eastwards during the afternoon and evening. There will be some heavy falls with a risk of localised flooding in parts of Munster and Leinster.

The rain will be accompanied by strong to near gale force and gusty southeasterly winds.

There is a risk that the rain will turn to sleet and snow later on Thursday night and towards dawn. Parts of north Leinster and Ulster will be most at risk, with further snowfall during Friday with accumulations mostly on higher ground.

Staying very cold on Saturday for much of the country with a further threat of wintry showers. Very cold, frosty and icy at times

Valid from: 11:00 17th Jan 2013
Valid to: 20:00 19th Jan 2013

We will get something but as it is a rain to snow event depends on where the line of snow starts and will it get pushed back far enough. I think there update highlights the uncertainties, either way there is going to be moisture falling but what way it falls??

It reminds me of the times when it was raining, the ground would be soaked, then it would start to snow, there was always the, Its snowing followed by ahhh the ground is too wet for it to stick.

leahyl · 17-01-2013 12:37pm

Spindle wrote: »

We will get something but as it is a rain to snow event depends on where the line of snow starts and will it get pushed back far enough. I think there update highlights the uncertainties, either way there is going to be moisture falling but what way it falls??

It reminds me of the times when it was raining, the ground would be soaked, then it would start to snow, there was always the, Its snowing followed by ahhh the ground is too wet for it to stick.

I remember that well....painful memories

:pac:

red_bairn · 17-01-2013 12:40pm

leahyl wrote: »

I remember that well....painful memories :pac:

Even worse for Cork.

Cold Spell Discussion (Ireland): Cold/Frosty/Icy with Snow for some

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