Ah... Summer 2019. Now what will you bring? Will you be a 2012? Will you be a 1995? Will you be a 2005? Will you be a 1985? Well if we knew, there'd be no fun in that!
To start off this thread, I will be giving my final analogues for Summer 2019 and these will be considered for the forecast that I will do very shortly. Unlike previous analogues, I have made strict scoring for these ones because so many years have appeared for 5 or more elements so years must have at least 8 or more elements to be considered for these analogues.
Out of these years, there is Summer 1995, Summer 1990, Summer 2017, Summer 1989 and Summer 1997. Summer 1995 was the highest scoring year with a total of 11 elements.
The June 2019 analogue I have generated using the years above shows below average heights over much of Europe and going through the UK/Ireland with above average heights from eastern Greenland over towards Scandinavia. This looks like a cool and unsettled setup. Yes, there's a Scandi High which could threaten warmer easterly or southeasterly winds and with the below average heights could result in some thundery moments. However, the below average heights are well in on Ireland and with blocking to the north, this only leaves us pulling in a cool west to northwesterly flow.
The July 2019 analogue does a complete flip on June with a very strong signal for above average heights to sit over Ireland. The jet stream is being pushed to the north with below average heights parked over Greenland. This looks like a very warm and dry scenario, maybe even hot. Wind direction would be variable. Looks similar to July 2013.
The August 2019 analogue looks similar to July with above average heights ridging through Ireland but its centre is a bit further eastwards, allowing the air to come from a southeasterly direction. The jet stream looks a bit closer to Ireland which could threaten relatively cloudier and wetter conditions to the northwest but overall, looks like another dry and very warm scenario, maybe even hot again. Would result in the hottest August since at least 2003 I would have thought, though is that really saying much?
The Summer 2019 analogue (for the Summer as a whole) looks anticyclonic with above average heights well in truly over Ireland indicative of high pressure, despite a cool and unsettled June.
Do I think the analogues have got it right though? Find out shortly.