November 2014 Boards forecast contest

I'm inclined to accept that for the bonus, and it will make some minor changes to scoring. First of all, the direction (W) would take one point away from all scores. If that were the only change we could leave things the way they are, but by losing one point the superbonus scores are reduced so anyone who got those will lose a point. The scoring for dates will change for a few players although most of the field will have the same scores as listed. Here are the new November scores then, with changes in brackets so that I can go into the annual table and change that.

Final scoring for November

FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ first snow

Tae laidir _________________23 __ 16 __ 13 __ 13 __ 06 ___4__4_____ 80 (-3)
john mac _________________23 __ 18 __ 16 __ 04 __ 07 ___4__3 ____ 75 (0)
Dacogawa ________________ 20 __ 17 __ 16 __ 08 __ 06 ___3__2 ____ 72 (0)
Harps ____________________22 __ 05 __ 14 __ 15 __ 05 ___5__4_1 __ 71 (-2)
Okla _____________________23 __ 10 __ 20 __ 05 __ 05 ___5__3_____71 (-2)
rameire __________________ 24 __ 19 __ 17 __ 02 __ 06 ___1__2 ____ 71 (-1)
omicron __________________ 21 __ 14 __ 18 __ 00 __ 08 ___5__3____ 69 (-2)

Consensus ________________ 24 __ 14 __ 14 __ 03 __ 06 ___4__2 ____ 67 (-1)

mickger844posts ___________17 __ 14 __ 15 __ 07 __ 06 ___5__2 ____ 66 (-1)
200motels ________________24 __ 11 __ 19 __ 07 __ 01 ___0__3 ____ 65 (-1)
joepublic _________________ 21 __ 15 __ 09 __ 05 __ 05 ___2__4 ____ 61 (-1)
Jpmarn __________________ 19 __ 06 __ 10 __ 10 __ 06 ___4__2 ____ 57 (0)
Bsal _____________________20 __ 09 __ 11 __ 04 __ 06 ___3__2 ____ 55 (-2)
dasa29 __________________ 24 __ 00 __ 18 __ 00 __ 09 ___2__2 ____ 55 (0)
The Zohan ________________24 __ 04 __ 17 __ 00 __ 04 ___3__2 ____ 54 (-1)
Rikand ___________________23 __ 04 __ 08 __ 05 __ 07 ___2__4 ____ 53 (-1)
M.T. Cranium ______________21 __ 19 __ 00 __ 01 __ 07 ___0__4 ____ 52 (-1)
sunflower3 ________________21 __ 20 __ 00 __ 00 __ 04 ___5__2 ____ 52 (-1)
jd ____ (-10) ______________22 __ 05 __ 17 __ 00 __ 09 ___5__2 __60-10=50 (0)
waterways ________________20 __ 07 __ 08 __ 09 __ 01 ___2__1 ____ 48 (-1)
lostinashford ______________23 __ 07 __ 02 __ 00 __ 05 ___0__4 ____ 41 (-1)
DOCARCH ______ (-20) _____23 __ 00 __ 20 __ 05 __ 06 ___3__4 __61-20=40 (0)
kindred spirit ____ (-20) ____ 23 __ 08 __ 13 __ 08 __ 05 ___2__2 __61-20=40 (0)
pauldry __________________ 18 __ 05 __ 00 __ 01 __ 07 ___0__3 ____ 34 (-1)
delw _____________________00 __ 06 __ 02 __ 05 __ 06 ___5__2 ____ 26 (-1)
____________________________________________________________

Will post the adjusted annual scoring table and four seasons points then will be able to merge the four seasons points with the other seasons and declare the winner(s) in that contest.

Annual scoring update through November 2014


Rank _ Forecaster ____ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N ___ TOTAL __ Best 9/11 (rank)

01 _Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 _ 70 _ 46 _ 73 _ 75 _ 67 __ 765 ____ 661 (1)

01 _rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 _ 75 _ 51 _ 55 _ 65 _ 53 __ 714 ____ 612 (1)
03 _harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 _ 65 _ 68 _ --- _ 49 _ 71 __ 657 ____ 607 (2)
04 _Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 _ 60 _ 60 _ 26 _ 76 _ 55 __ 654 ____ 594 (3)
05 _omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 _ 40 _ 30 _ 71 _ 62 _ 69 __ 641 ____ 571 (4)
08 _mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 _ 60 _ 25 _ 69 _ 77 _ 66 __ 634 ____ 568 (5)

05 _Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 _ 51 _ 57 _ 36 _ 46 _ 80 __ 640 ____ 566 (6)
02 _John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 _ 64 _ 52 _ 69 _ 62 _ 75 __ 663____ 563 (7)
07 _jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 _ 43 _ 34 _ 68 _ 76 _ 57 __ 637 ____ 560 (8)
09 _kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 69 _ 47 _ 38 _ 72 _ 41 __ 632 ____ 553 (9)
10 _pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 _ 55 _ 66 _ 58 _ 47 _ 34 __ 613 ____ 539 (10)

11 _rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 _ 46 _ 45 _ 62 _ 65 _ 71 __ 612 ____ 526 (11)
17 _okla ___________ 59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 _ 56 _ 57 _ 56 _ 71 __ 575 ____ 526 (11)
14 _dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 _ 48 _ 55 _ 35 _ 72 _ 72 __ 589 ____ 522 (13)
12 _dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 _ 56 _ 39 _ 49 _ 65 _ 55 __ 597 ____ 518 (14)
16 _waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 30 _ 63 _ 50 _ 48 __ 585 ____ 518 (14)

21 _jd _____________ 60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- _ 67 _ 31 _ 69 _ 51 _ 50 __ 516 ____ 516 (16)
15 _200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 _ 38 _ 33 _ 59 _ 71 _ 65 __ 586 ____ 515 (17)
13 _DOCARCH _______54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 _ 68 _ 43 _ 51 _ 57 _ 41 __ 591 ____ 512 (18)
18 _lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 _ 62 _ 36 _ 57 _ 59 _ 41 __ 540 ____ 504 (19)
19 _M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 _ 62 _ 32 _ 30 _ 60 _ 52 __ 532 ____ 476 (20)

20 _Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 _ 52 _ 45 _ 58 _ 45 _ 61 __ 525 ____ 473 (21)
25 _delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 _ --- _ 47 _ --- _ 35 _ 26 __ 288 ____ 288 (22)
22 _Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 375
23 _traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 351
24 _The Zohan ______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 _ 42 _ 42 _ 82 _ 62 _ 54 __ 342

26 _talkabout _______59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 255
27 _sunflower3______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ 24 _ 65 _ 67 _ 52 __ 248
28 _nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 236
29 _homolumo ______ 58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 163
30 _Robxxx7 ________--- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- __ 136

31 _seafields ________40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- __ 123
32 _melanoma ______ 39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 104
33 _yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ --_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 94
34 _downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 64
35 _dexter647 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 55

36 _octo __________ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 47
37 _rebelcork ______ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 46
38 _drdidlittle ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 40
39 _billcarson ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 39
40 _aimsir _________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- ___ 28
________________________________________________________

Provisional scoring for autumn in the Four Seasons Award

(showing the points qualifiers and anyone within 15 pts as these may change with the November bonus, however only slight changes are likely -- at that time, will be able to announce the final 2014 Four Seasons standings).

FORECASTER __________ S-O-N total ______ points

Con Sensus ___________ 216 ____________ 10

mickger844posts _______ 212 ____________10
Johnmac ______________206 ____________ 7
omicron ______________ 202 ____________ 6
Jpmarn _______________ 201 ____________5
rameire _______________198 ____________ 4
TheZohan _____________ 198 ____________ 4
200motels _____________195 ____________ 2
Okla _________________ 184 ____________ 1
sunflower3 ____________ 184 ____________ 1
dacogawa _____________ 179 ____________ 1
______________________________________________________


Final Standings -- Four Seasons Award (Dec 2013 to Nov 2014)

FORECASTER _______ Winter ___ Spring ___ Summer ___ Autumn ____ TOTAL


Con Sensus __________ 1 _______ 10 _______ 4 _______ 10_________ 25


rikand ______________ 1 _______ 10________ 7 _______ 0 _________ 18

harps_______________ 0 _______ 7 ________10 _______ 0 _________ 17

Jpmarn ______________ 6 _______ 6 ________ 0 _______ 5 _________ 17

omicron _____________ 4 _______ 5 ________ 0 _______ 6__________ 15

Bsal ________________10 _______ 3 ________ 1 _______ -- _________14

John mac ____________ 0 _______ 0 ________ 6 _______ 7 _________ 13

mickger844posts ______ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 ______ 10 _________ 10

pauldry______________ 7 _______ 1 ________ 1 _______ 0 __________ 9

Tae laidir ____________ 3 _______ 1 ________ 4 _______ 0 __________ 8

kindredspirit __________0 _______ 1 ________ 6 _______ 0 __________ 7

nilhg ________________ 5 _______ 0 ________ 0 _______ 0 __________5

rameire _____________ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 _______ 4 __________ 5

The Zohan ___________ 0 _______ 0 ________ 0 _______ 4 __________ 4

talkabout ____________ 0 _______ 4 ________ 0 _______ 0 __________ 4

DOCARCH ____________ 0 _______ 0 ________ 3 ______ 0 ___________3

okla ________________ 0 _______ 0 ________ 2 _______ 1 __________ 3

200motels ___________ 1 _______ 0 ________ 0 _______ 2 __________ 3

traecy.1 _____________ 0 _______ 2 ________ 0 _______ 0 __________ 2

waterways ___________ 2 _______ 0 ________ 0 _______ 0 __________ 2

lostinashford _________ 0 _______ 0 ________ 2 _______ 0 __________ 2

dasa29 ______________ 0 _______ 0 ________ 1 _______ 0 __________ 1

__________________________________________________

So, a bit of an anti-climax to end this contest as the two leaders Rikand, Harps failed to gain any new points while Con Sensus leaped ahead with high score for autumn (then points are given as if that never happened). Jpmarn caught up to Harps to tie for second.

CONGRATS to the overall Four Seasons winner Rikand (not to mention Con).

I would not deserve much of a cut because Con would be slightly improved without my portion, looking at where I am in the tables.

Can say this is a rather anomalous outcome, consensus is usually well placed in a forecast contest but rarely ahead of all forecasts. I run a contest on the American weather forum too, and consensus was sitting in 5th place out of 21 there. Unlike in this contest, I score "normal" as well, and normal is almost dead last, so that shows that the fiield have some skill in beating random chance.

In previous years in our own contest, I think Con was running fairly well but more like third or so, would have to look back and see.

In my own case, I'm pretty sure without looking back at the scoring that I need to retool my max and min forecasts, I probably get far fewer points from them than the average. In general I tend to be looking for more extreme ranges than nature plans to provide. If somebody has time on their hands, look back at IMT forecasts for Con and the 21 regulars here (anyone who has missed two or fewer and has a ranking in the annual contest). It would be interesting to see if Con has the lead there or whether it comes from the other categories. To some extent, Con has an advantage, they can't easily score less than the average in any column because of the guaranteed scoring and the rank order scoring methods for the bonus. In sheer mathematical terms, it would be very difficult for the field to beat Con although I have seen outcomes where consensus is as low as middle of the scoring table.