November 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT for November, the 1981-2010 average was 7.3 C (up from 7.0 in 1971-2000 and 6.6 in 1961-1990).

2. Predict the maximum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

3. Predict the minimum temperature for November at any met.ie station as reported in the Monthly Summary.

4. Predict the rainfall as percentage of normal values, as reported for eleven met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

5. Predict the sunshine as percentage of normal values, as reported for however many (seems to be holding at six) met-ie stations in the Monthly Summary.

6. Bonus questions (two parts)

6-1 > Predict the date of the first snow report on official met.ie stations, the usual false automated reports will be discarded, we'll look for some kind of verification to declare the first snowfall (on the hourly reports). no member reports, peaks covered with snow, pictures from Lapland, etc. As explained in the form, the date must be in the range 1 Nov to 31 Dec, yes all of Dec in play, bonus will be settled when the snow happens. But if no snow at all by end of 2014 is your call, predict 31 Dec. In this case, question 6-2 will not count for any points, otherwise, both questions are worth 5 apiece.

6-2 > Predict the wind direction associated with that first snowfall (at the relevant location and hour). Your choices are ninefold, namely S, SW, W, NW, N, NE, E, SE or calm. These are the wind directions we see on hourly reports. If somebody gives a more precise direction such as NNE, it will be rotated clockwise so that one would be NE.

Be so kind as to do all of this at the form provided here or if necessary in this thread:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1BC4I-Ls3Bz5iGhJMzMpQb61miqw8Pmxj_4fPB5SRLAI/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ

and by the usual deadline which this time around will be 0300h Sunday 2 Nov, with 5 pt penalties each half day thereafter.

Good luck.

Rikand

Are there a list of stations by elevation above sea level?

M.T. Cranium

Not sure, probably none are high enough

We have some possible issues with the form, could some reader just go through the motions of posting a forecast and tell me if you can see your forecast as well as mine just submitted? You can change it later if you don't want to enter it, or just enter with a non-contest name and put in random numbers. I can see the form and so can my partner in crime but we are admins, you should be able to see it (by clicking on a link in the form that you see before entering and also by following a link after entering). Thanks

omicron

Rikand wrote: »

Are there a list of stations by elevation above sea level?

Knock Airport is prob the highest at 203m.

pauldry

done as away next week

Bsal

Done.

lostinashford

Done

pauldry

can i change my snow prediction to Nov 5

next week looks bitter

M.T. Cranium

yes, anyone can change any details of their forecasts either by noting it here or entering again. I only count the latest (on time) forecasts and if somebody wanted to change with a time penalty we said once upon a time that would be okay except that the penalty would then apply to the entire forecast.

Could somebody confirm that they are able to see all the entries made so far and not just their own? thanks. (I can but you should be able to do so as well).

omicron

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

yes, anyone can change any details of their forecasts either by noting it here or entering again. I only count the latest (on time) forecasts and if somebody wanted to change with a time penalty we said once upon a time that would be okay except that the penalty would then apply to the entire forecast.

Could somebody confirm that they are able to see all the entries made so far and not just their own? thanks. (I can but you should be able to do so as well).

Yeah they're all visible.

pauldry

omicron wrote: »

Yeah they're all visible.

Doesnt look as cold now next week more like 7 to 10 than 5 to 8c but ill leave mine at nov 5

dasa29

Done, just checked I put down 19 for the bonus question did not think to put a month so I mean 19 nov if you can change it.

omicron

Done.

Joe Public

Done

delw

done

Harps

Done

Rikand

Done

John mac

Done

dacogawa

Done

Fr_Dougal

Done

Tae laidir

Done

okla

Done

rameire

Done

mickger844posts

done

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries for November 2014

FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ first snow


pauldry __________________ 8.0__16.9__-5.8__100__102___5 Nov__ N
waterways ________________7.8__16.7__-4.0__123__077__16 Nov__ E
Bsal _____________________7.8__16.5__-3.7__109__099__21 Dec__NE
omicron __________________7.7__16.0__-3.0__095__105___8 Dec__ N
Harps ____________________7.6__16.9__-3.4__140__090___6 Dec__NW
DOCARCH ______ (-20) _____ 7.5__18.1__-2.8__110__097__26 Nov__NW
Rikand ___________________ 7.5__17.0__-4.0__110__101__22 Nov__NW
kindred spirit ____ (-20) _____7.5__16.6__-3.5__120__090__28 Dec__NE
Okla _____________________ 7.5__16.4__-2.8__110__091___5 Dec__ N
Tae laidir _________________ 7.5__15.8__-3.5__135__095__13 Dec__NW
dasa29 ___________________7.4__18.0__-3.0__095__110__19 Nov__NE
rameire __________________ 7.4__15.3__-3.1__103__096__31 Dec__NE

Consensus ________________ 7.4__16.0__-3.4__106__095__ 1 Dec__NE

200motels ________________7.4__14.5__-2.9__116__070___4 Nov__ N
The Zohan ________________7.2__17.0__-3.1__090__085__26 Nov__NE
lostinashford ______________ 7.1__16.7__-4.6__090__090___5 Nov__NW
john mac _________________ 7.1__15.2__-2.4__107__100__28 Nov__ N
jd ____ (-10) ______________7.0__16.9__-3.1__092__ 111___4 Dec__NE
joepublic _________________ 6.9__15.9__-3.9__110__090__21 Nov__NW
M.T. Cranium _____________ 6.9__15.5__-5.0__100__100___5 Nov__NW
sunflower3 ________________6.9__15.4__-5.8__092__089___5 Dec__NE
Dacogawa ________________ 6.8__15.7__-3.2__120__095__24 Nov__NE
Jpmarn ___________________6.7__16.8__-3.8__125__095__28 Nov__NE
mickger844posts ___________ 6.5__14.8__-2.3__118__095__10 Dec__NE
delw _____________________ 4.5__14.0__-1.0__110__095__10 Dec__NE


_____________________________________________

Consensus may change if we get further entries, currently at 15 pts late penalty, going to 20 pts at 1500h and 25 pts at 0300h Tuesday 4th.

kindredspirit

Forgot this in November. Tried a couple of times at the end of October but boards.ie is so slow that I gave up each time waiting for it to load. This site and also Photobucket are PAINFUL. Every other site I use is fine. Tonight, though, it took only 15 minutes to load.

DOCARCH

Done...a tad late!

Joe Public

kindredspirit wrote: »

Forgot this in November. Tried a couple of times at the end of October but boards.ie is so slow that I gave up each time waiting for it to load. This site and also Photobucket are PAINFUL. Every other site I use is fine. Tonight, though, it took only 15 minutes to load.

Works fine for me.

M.T. Cranium

After seven days ...

IMT was 8.4 C

PRC at 196% of normal

SUN at 116% of normal

MAX 15.4 (Phoenix Park 6th)

MIN -1.1 (Markree 5th)

no snow bonus yet

M.T. Cranium

Well then, I forgot the end of week two but this is where we stand after a bit of extra calculation ...

IMT on 8.1 C

PRC about 220% of normal

SUN continues to exceed normal also, probably close to 115% as before

I have not noticed any new extremes and no snow in the bonus department yet.

Rikand

I think I'm starting to hope we get no snow at all for 2014

Tae laidir

Gurteen -1.9 yesterday may be new min.

John mac

Tae laidir wrote: »

Gurteen -1.9 yesterday may be new min.

That wont last long

M.T. Cranium

New min of --2.6 C at Markree on Sunday, possibly threatened last night at Moorepark as I noticed an hourly there of -2 around 0400 (then it warmed up).

The current IMT is 7.8 C and falling probably to 7.6 after today. End of month estimate around 7.4 C.

The precip has fallen off a bit to around 170% after a normal amount the past seven days. End of month estimate around 150%

Sunshine has increased to near 125% after a rather sunny week at 145%. By end of the month this may fall off to 120% or a bit lower perhaps.

No snow as far as I know, sure somebody would have posted -- this may drag into early December at least. I don't see any forecasts that caught the combination of high precip and sunshine but on cursory inspection would say Harps and/or Okla might have the highest monthly scores, potentially. John mac also fairly close to them. Will be posting the next contest soon, and note there's also a winter contest thread open.

Tae laidir

ABC
(Anyone But Con)

omicron

Moorepark -3 at 0600 might be a new min.

Joe Public

Finner Donegal has reported snow showers today, just searching for photos of Lapland to prove it.

Tae laidir

Con will be delighted!
:mad:

M.T. Cranium

Is that the usual freezing fog automated snow sort of a deal?

Let me know as I missed seeing this in real time.

Anyway, there will be a December thread posted later today, I hope, just waiting for the form to be updated. The bonus questions will be the usual December offerings of max/min for DublinA on 25th and yes or no will it snow on 25th (anywhere in Ireland).

If anyone is heading off on holiday, you can PM me your forecast, otherwise, watch for the thread and please note we also have a winter forecast contest thread. Deadlines for both will be 0300h Tuesday 2nd with the usual late penalties.

Tae laidir

omicron wrote: »

Moorepark -3 at 0600 might be a new min.

Actual -2.8

pauldry

that snow in finner isnt snow. but the comp says first reported snow at met station so technically...

i remember reporting snow at finner a year or two ago and i think it was fog or some fault.

maybe im wrong but theres no snow even near us yet.

Harps

Yeah Finner has a habit of reporting snow in low visibility when temperatures are in low single figures, I think we can safely discount it as an error

Rikand

Harps wrote: »

Yeah Finner has a habit of reporting snow in low visibility when temperatures are in low single figures, I think we can safely discount it as an error

well now now, lets not be so hasty!

( says the guy with a reading of 22nd November for snow )

Rikand

Just kidding of course. I'm fully prepared to lose this competition fair and square

Predict the date of the first snow report on official met.ie stations, the usual false automated reports will be discarded, we'll look for some kind of verification to declare the first snowfall (on the hourly reports).

No verification = no snow.

rameire

a reminder to all that December form here

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1BC4I-Ls3Bz5iGhJMzMpQb61miqw8Pmxj_4fPB5SRLAI/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ

M.T. Cranium

Will be scoring November tomorrow if MS appears. But can confirm that IMT finished on 7.3 C and precip looks to be above 135% -- not much in the last few days so it didn't escalate beyond our range of forecasts too badly.

Will score the snowfall bonus based on an arbitrary date in the next week to ten days that I select from the model run, then adjust the table when the actual date and direction are known. This likely won't affect scoring too much since we can already say that December dates will score higher than most November dates and it can only get more so, also I would be surprised if the verification direction isn't NW given the sort of synoptics we are going to be seeing.

As the November scoring won't be finalized the November seasonal results may be provisional, depending on how many points the leader comes in ahead of second place (and what they said for first snowfall).

M.T. Cranium

Final values for November

IMT 7.3 C

MAX 15.4 on 6th (Phoenix Park)

MIN --2.8 on 26th (Moore Park)

PRC 141% of normal

SUN 122% of normal

For the bonus, will set 9 Dec NW as the verifying first snow, current charts would support that (could come as early as 7th). This will in any case result in only minor adjustments later as most of the predictions are before that date.

Scoring report will follow in about an hour.

M.T. Cranium

Scoring Report for December 2014 -- bonus is provisional

See my previous post for actual values and explanation of scoring for bonus, subject to what I hope will be minor changes.


FORECASTER _____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ first snow

Tae laidir _________________23 __ 16 __ 13 __ 13 __ 06 ___5__5_2 __ 83
john mac _________________23 __ 18 __ 16 __ 04 __ 07 ___3__4 ____ 75
Harps ____________________22 __ 05 __ 14 __ 15 __ 05 ___5__5_2 __ 73
Okla _____________________23 __ 10 __ 20 __ 05 __ 05 ___5__4_1 __ 73
rameire __________________ 24 __ 19 __ 17 __ 02 __ 06 ___1__3 ____ 72
Dacogawa ________________ 20 __ 17 __ 16 __ 08 __ 06 ___2__3 ____ 72
omicron __________________ 21 __ 14 __ 18 __ 00 __ 08 ___5__4_1 __ 71

Consensus ________________ 24 __ 14 __ 14 __ 03 __ 06 ___4__3 ____ 68

mickger844posts ___________17 __ 14 __ 15 __ 07 __ 06 ___5__3 ____ 67
200motels ________________24 __ 11 __ 19 __ 07 __ 01 ___0__4 ____ 66
joepublic _________________ 21 __ 15 __ 09 __ 05 __ 05 ___2__5 ____ 62
Jpmarn __________________ 19 __ 06 __ 10 __ 10 __ 06 ___3__3 ____ 57
Bsal _____________________20 __ 09 __ 11 __ 04 __ 06 ___4__3 ____ 57
dasa29 __________________ 24 __ 00 __ 18 __ 00 __ 09 ___1__3 ____ 55
The Zohan ________________24 __ 04 __ 17 __ 00 __ 04 ___3__3 ____ 55
Rikand ___________________23 __ 04 __ 08 __ 05 __ 07 ___2__5 ____ 54
M.T. Cranium ______________21 __ 19 __ 00 __ 01 __ 07 ___0__5 ____ 53
sunflower3 ________________21 __ 20 __ 00 __ 00 __ 04 ___5__3 ____ 53
jd ____ (-10) ______________22 __ 05 __ 17 __ 00 __ 09 ___4__3 __60-10=50
waterways ________________20 __ 07 __ 08 __ 09 __ 01 ___2__2 ____ 49
lostinashford ______________23 __ 07 __ 02 __ 00 __ 05 ___0__5 ____ 42
DOCARCH ______ (-20) _____23 __ 00 __ 20 __ 05 __ 06 ___2__5 __61-20=41
kindred spirit ____ (-20) ____ 23 __ 08 __ 13 __ 08 __ 05 ___1__3 __61-20=41
pauldry __________________ 18 __ 05 __ 00 __ 01 __ 07 ___0__4 ____ 35
delw _____________________00 __ 06 __ 02 __ 05 __ 06 ___5__3 ____ 27

So well done to Tae laidir, John mac, harps, Okla, rameire and the rest of the Con-beaters. I think this order of finish will hold up as any changes will be fairly similar. But this will not be official until we can confirm the first snowfall.

Annual update to follow.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring update through October 2014


Rank _ Forecaster ____ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N ___ TOTAL __ Best 9/11 (rank)

01 _Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 _ 70 _ 46 _ 73 _ 75 _ 68 __ 766 ____ 662 (1)

01 _rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 _ 75 _ 51 _ 55 _ 65 _ 54 __ 715 ____ 613 (1)
03 _harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 _ 65 _ 68 _ --- _ 49 _ 73 __ 658 ____ 609 (2)
04 _Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 _ 60 _ 60 _ 26 _ 76 _ 57 __ 656 ____ 596 (3)
05 _omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 _ 40 _ 30 _ 71 _ 62 _ 71 __ 643 ____ 573 (4)
05 _Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 _ 51 _ 57 _ 36 _ 46 _ 83 __ 643 ____ 569 (5)
08 _mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 _ 60 _ 25 _ 69 _ 77 _ 67 __ 635____ 569 (5)

02 _John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 _ 64 _ 52 _ 69 _ 62 _ 75 __ 663____ 563 (7)
07 _jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 _ 43 _ 34 _ 68 _ 76 _ 57 __ 637 ____ 560 (8)
09 _kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 69 _ 47 _ 38 _ 72 _ 41 __ 632 ____ 553 (9)
10 _pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 _ 55 _ 66 _ 58 _ 47 _ 35 __ 614 ____ 539 (10)

17 _okla ___________ 59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 _ 56 _ 57 _ 56 _ 73 __ 577 ____ 528 (11)
11 _rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 _ 46 _ 45 _ 62 _ 65 _ 72 __ 613 ____ 527 (12)
14 _dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 _ 48 _ 55 _ 35 _ 72 _ 72 __ 589 ____ 522 (13)
16 _waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 30 _ 63 _ 50 _ 49 __ 586 ____ 519 (14)
12 _dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 _ 56 _ 39 _ 49 _ 65 _ 55 __ 597 ____ 518 (15)

15 _200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 _ 38 _ 33 _ 59 _ 71 _ 66 __ 587 ____ 516 (16)
21 _jd _____________ 60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- _ 67 _ 31 _ 69 _ 51 _ 50 __ 516 ____ 516 (16)
13 _DOCARCH _______54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 _ 68 _ 43 _ 51 _ 57 _ 41 __ 591 ____ 512 (18)
18 _lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 _ 62 _ 36 _ 57 _ 59 _ 42 __ 541 ____ 505 (19)
19 _M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 _ 62 _ 32 _ 30 _ 60 _ 53 __ 533 ____ 477 (20)

20 _Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 _ 52 _ 45 _ 58 _ 45 _ 62 __ 526 ____ 474 (21)
25 _delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 _ --- _ 47 _ --- _ 35 _ 27 __ 289 ____ 289 (22)
22 _Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 375
23 _traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 351
24 _The Zohan ______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 _ 42 _ 42 _ 82 _ 62 _ 55 __ 343

26 _talkabout _______59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 255
27 _sunflower3______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ 24 _ 65 _ 67 _ 53 __ 249
28 _nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 236
29 _homolumo ______ 58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 163
30 _Robxxx7 ________--- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- __ 136

31 _seafields ________40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- __ 123
32 _melanoma ______ 39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __ 104
33 _yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ --_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 94
34 _downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 64
35 _dexter647 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 55

36 _octo __________ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 47
37 _rebelcork ______ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 46
38 _drdidlittle ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 40
39 _billcarson ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 39
40 _aimsir _________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- ___ 28
________________________________________________________

Provisional scoring for autumn in the Four Seasons Award

(showing the points qualifiers and anyone within 15 pts as these may change with the November bonus, however only slight changes are likely -- at that time, will be able to announce the final 2014 Four Seasons standings).

FORECASTER __________ S-O-N total ______ points

mickger844posts _______ 213 ____________10
Johnmac ______________206 ____________ 7
omicron ______________ 204 ____________ 6
Jpmarn _______________ 201 ____________5
rameire _______________199 ____________ 4
TheZohan _____________ 199 ____________ 4
200motels _____________196 ____________ 2
Okla _________________ 186 ____________ 1
sunflower3 ____________ 185 ____________ 1
dacogawa _____________ 179 ____________ 1
Rikand ________________174 ____________
jd ___________________ 170 ____________
dasa29 _______________ 169 ____________
Joe Public _____________ 165 ____________
Tae laidir ______________165 ____________

______________________________________________________

So, the annual race has tightened up considerably with Harps making a move on the leader, Rikand. In the MTC award portion, Rikand has a larger lead and it's Johnmac in second place there. Boards award rankings are the numbers at end of each row in brackets and they are only posted for those who qualify by having missed no more than two months. The MTC rankings are the first number in each row. There are a few ties here and there.

As mentioned, this table will be adjusted when the November bonus is settled.

Rikand

Harps will probably be ahead of me after the bonus

Ah well, I gave it a good run

M.T. Cranium

Well there's a month to go, anything could happen. The bonus has already been scored as if there was snow on 9th of December, so those scores can't change too much if it's within a few days of that. And even if it goes to end of the month most of the scores are locked in, the few that went very late in December will gain a few points and the people who are in the range 5-14 December will lose a few points in that case. I am pretty confident that NW (or W) will verify on direction, the pattern looks cold zonal for two weeks. And that's how I scored November already so that would not change at all.