Providence Resources

Kilboor · 05-01-2021 4:41pm

Nice rebound back to 5 p today. Bond news due by February.

Kilboor · 13-01-2021 11:01am

And like that we are back to 7p

LawBoy2018 · 02-02-2021 11:46am

A nice drop today! Probably in response to this: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ban-on-new-oil-and-gas-exploration-to-be-put-into-legislation-40039630.html

Kilboor · 02-02-2021 11:49am

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

A nice drop today! Probably in response to this: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ban-on-new-oil-and-gas-exploration-to-be-put-into-legislation-40039630.html

If Degiro allowed me to buy more I would. Existing licenses are unaffected, Providence completely unaffected by this.

Bond news by end of month, and production plan being submitted to Government this month too.

LawBoy2018 · 02-02-2021 11:51am

Kilboor wrote: »

If Degiro allowed me to buy more I would. Existing licenses are unaffected, Providence completely unaffected by this.

Bond news by end of month, and production plan being submitted to Government this month too.

There was a question mark as to whether Eamon Ryan would actually introduce legislation to ban oil/gas exploration.

Now that he has, there is 0 chance that he will grant the further permissions required to continue/begin operations in Cork imo.

Kilboor · 02-02-2021 11:53am

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

There was a question mark as to whether Eamon Ryan would actually introduce legislation to ban oil/gas exploration.

Now that he has, there is 0 chance that he will grant the further permissions required to continue/begin operations in Cork imo.

That's simply untrue. I'd argue this is him trying to look good banning all FUTURE non existing license explorations and drilling before he is forced to approve Barryroe.

https://twitter.com/OffshoreIreland/status/1356541304705085440

LawBoy2018 · 02-02-2021 12:12pm

Kilboor wrote: »

That's simply untrue. I'd argue this is him trying to look good banning all FUTURE non existing license explorations and drilling before he is forced to approve Barryroe.

https://twitter.com/OffshoreIreland/status/1356541304705085440

It's just my opinion sir. It will definitely be interesting to see how things pan out in the end!

Is there any date announced as to when they envisage the project beginning operations?

Kilboor · 02-02-2021 12:17pm

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

It's just my opinion sir. It will definitely be interesting to see how things pan out in the end!

Is there any date announced as to when they envisage the project beginning operations?

No problem, I always appreciate a devil's advocate for my investments.

By 2023 at the latest. Supposed to submit production proposal during this month and bond news end of month.

LawBoy2018 · 02-02-2021 12:19pm

From a logistics perspective, is it just Ryan holding them up? Have they secured all of their funding or just part of it?

Kilboor · 02-02-2021 12:33pm

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

From a logistics perspective, is it just Ryan holding them up? Have they secured all of their funding or just part of it?

The environmental impact report will take around 9-12 months to complete, that begins after the proposals for development are submitted (word on the street is some time this month).

If Ryan does not submit a production license or delays it without valid reason then the Irish Government will have to pay compensation, this amount I'm unsure of but presumably a large chunk of the total costs of exploration to date and lost future value so 200 mil +

Funding wise they are currently in the bond markets, Pareto is facilitating the bond for SpotOn. The rumour is they (Pareto) completed the bond raise for PTAL today and are now fully focused on closing out for SpotOn/Providence. SpotOn have also registered in Ireland as of December.

Brent nearing the 60 mark too, good times ahead imo

Current oil prices, and no tax on the first 200 million earned (offsetting exploration costs) will see Bondholders paid back soon after production.

LawBoy2018 · 02-02-2021 12:45pm

Kilboor wrote: »

The environmental impact report will take around 9-12 months to complete, that begins after the proposals for development are submitted (word on the street is some time this month).

If Ryan does not submit a production license or delays it without valid reason then the Irish Government will have to pay compensation, this amount I'm unsure of but presumably a large chunk of the total costs of exploration to date and lost future value so 200 mil +

Funding wise they are currently in the bond markets, Pareto is facilitating the bond for SpotOn. The rumour is they (Pareto) completed the bond raise for PTAL today and are now fully focused on closing out for SpotOn/Providence. SpotOn have also registered in Ireland as of December.

Brent nearing the 60 mark too, good times ahead imo

Current oil prices, and no tax on the first 200 million earned (offsetting exploration costs) will see Bondholders paid back soon after production.

On what legal basis would the Government need to pay any compensation? Breach of contract? I'd imagine such a contract would be subject to the requisite permissions, if it even exists?

Rolling Stone · 02-02-2021 12:53pm

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

A nice drop today! Probably in response to this: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ban-on-new-oil-and-gas-exploration-to-be-put-into-legislation-40039630.html

This could be interpreted as Eamonn Ryan playing politics. If he approves production at Barryroe, it will be seen as a big concession from Green Party members, especially the hardcore element. He needs to secure something in return to offset any fallout from approving Barryroe. He was never going to approve Barryroe without having gained something to go back to Green Party members with.

Kilboor · 02-02-2021 12:53pm

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

On what legal basis would the Government need to pay any compensation? Breach of contract? I'd imagine such a contract would be subject to the requisite permissions, if it even exists?

Not sure on the legality but no doubt there would be a case, it's not something I'm using as a value metric but for the Government to essentially write off providence resources at this point, so close to production (assuming funding is secured by end of month) and after spending north of 200 million euro, which in effect will also ruin the business for any future developments and partnerships, there could be a hefty case. Add the involvement of the farmout partners who will also lose out and it won't be an easy case to defend. Again though I am confident Ryan is trying to improve his image before Barryroe goes to production. There's a reason he's rushing this in now, good news before the bad (for him)

Providence have threatened in the past with the initial drilling ban legislation from 2019.

LawBoy2018 · 02-02-2021 1:04pm

Kilboor wrote: »

Not sure on the legality but no doubt there would be a case, it's not something I'm using as a value metric but for the Government to essentially write off providence resources at this point, so close to production (assuming funding is secured by end of month) and after spending north of 200 million euro, which in effect will also ruin the business for any future developments and partnerships, there could be a hefty case. Add the involvement of the farmout partners who will also lose out and it won't be an easy case to defend. Again though I am confident Ryan is trying to improve his image before Barryroe goes to production. There's a reason he's rushing this in now, good news before the bad (for him)

Providence have threatened in the past with the initial drilling ban legislation from 2019.

A case for what though? The Gov make our laws. PR could bring an application for judicial review but that would be it I'd say.

Such an action would be akin to a radioactive rubber duck salesman trying to sue the Government for banning the sale of radioactive rubber ducks.

The fact that a particular salesman spent $1 billion on radioactive ducks prior to the implementation of the legislation banning the sale of such products is irrelevant. The product was harmful to people's health and the Government decided that public health was more important than the hard done by salesman's finances.

AFAIK, there is no formal agreement between Providence Resources + the Irish government, meaning that it's very possible that the Gov will do a u-turn re Corrib and Barryroe.

(my opinion, could very well be wrong)

Kilboor · 02-02-2021 1:13pm

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

A case for what though? The Gov make our laws. PR could bring an application for judicial review but that would be it I'd say.

Such an action would be akin to a radioactive rubber duck salesman trying to sue the Government for banning the sale of radioactive rubber ducks.

The fact that a particular salesman spent $1 billion on radioactive ducks prior to the implementation of the legislation banning the sale of such products is irrelevant. The product was harmful to people's health and the Government decided that public health was more important than the hard done by salesman's finances.

AFAIK, there is no formal agreement between Providence Resources + the Irish government, meaning that it's very possible that the Gov will do a u-turn re Corrib and Barryroe.

(my opinion, could very well be wrong)

I think it's a little different considering oil is something this country will continue importing for the foreseeable future. They're not banning oil. Also to add to this Barryroe has a viable amount of gas too. Natural gas is necessary to secure our future energy requirements, Barryroe's oil on the other hand is too good to use for energy according to Alan Linn.

Bad for business if they do a u-turn, not only for exploration companies but for any long term private investment.

LawBoy2018 · 02-02-2021 1:16pm

Kilboor wrote: »

I think it's a little different considering oil is something this country will continue importing for the foreseeable future. They're not banning oil.

Bad for business of they do a u-turn, not only for exploration companies but for any long term private investment.

But also bad + potentially lethal for the Greens if the projects commence!

They're already bleeding members which will have them rattled.

Kilboor · 02-02-2021 1:18pm

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

But also bad + potentially lethal for the Greens if the projects commence!

They're already bleeding members which will have them rattled.

That's their own problem. The scope of what they promise to do in Govt is always vastly exaggerated, we've seen it time and time again. They aren't the majority.

LawBoy2018 · 02-02-2021 1:22pm

Kilboor wrote: »

That's their own problem. The scope of what they promise to do in Govt is always vastly exaggerated, we've seen it time and time again. They aren't the majority.

FF/FG need them though and I could see Green party members taking a hard stance on this matter. There's 0 chance that MM would risk an election atm, there are far bigger fish to fry.

Kilboor · 02-02-2021 1:30pm

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

FF/FG need them though and I could see Green party members taking a hard stance on this matter. There's 0 chance that MM would risk an election atm, there are far bigger fish to fry.

I don't think Eamon Ryan would risk an election either though so the same could be said for him approving Barryroe with the caveat that future oil and gas exploration and drilling is now stopped. It's a sensible win for the greens while not being too chaotic. They'll lose members but the reality is the green party are never going to be stable in their approaches to policy, hardliners extinction rebellion types and extreme policies are something that Eamon Ryan will never introduce as he knows it will be unpopular among the moderate green party voters (of which I myself was one in the election before the last)

littlevillage · 02-02-2021 7:36pm

Providence Resources have applied for a exploration/drilling licences under the existing regulatory regime. The Government wouldn't be able to retrospectively change that. They can only change things going forward... otherwise you would imagine that would be a scenario where PR could sue.

Kilboor · 02-02-2021 8:11pm

The main man himself, Alan Linn, was on Rte 6 O'Clock news

Kilboor · 07-02-2021 1:10pm

Sunday Business Post:

- SpotOn have approached Providence Resources with a merger offer.

- Providence to consider only after funding secured

- Funding has to be in place by month end

LawBoy2018 · 07-02-2021 1:40pm

Kilboor wrote: »

Sunday Business Post:

- SpotOn have approached Providence Resources with a merger offer.

- Providence to consider only after funding secured

- Funding has to be in place by month end

Very interesting! How might it affect the share price tomorrow?

greenfield21 · 07-02-2021 1:43pm

Always jam tomorrow with these aim stocks. How much more money can the board squeeze out of this. It's like deja vu with the Chinese. Tomorrow will probably be up but need to see more details and confirmation. In saying that it's a highly volatile penny stock that is up over 400% of its lows so I can't give out too much.

LawBoy2018 · 07-02-2021 1:45pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

Always jam tomorrow with these aim stocks. How much more money can the board squeeze out of this. It's like deja vu with the Chinese. Tomorrow will probably be up but need to see more details and confirmation. In saying that it's a highly volatile penny stock that is up over 400% of its lows so I can't give out too much.

I agree. Alan Linn & co. are excellent at keeping the company relevant though! He'd give Michael O'Leary a run for his money..

Did you smash it · 07-02-2021 1:48pm

When does their license for drilling in Ballyroe run out? Can they renew it?

Is the new proposed legislation affect their interest in Ballyroe or only in new fields which are unlicensed?

Kilboor · 07-02-2021 1:48pm

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

Very interesting! How might it affect the share price tomorrow?

Positively I'd imagine.

Thoughts among shareholders are that SpotOn and the consortium may takeover Providence and use it to develop the Bentley North Sea Field after Barryroe development starts.

Essentially Providence becomes a cash shell for further developments.

Can't see the share price going anything but up.

Kilboor · 07-02-2021 1:50pm

Did you smash it wrote: »

When does their license for drilling in Ballyroe run out? Can they renew it?

Is the new proposed legislation affect their interest in Ballyroe or only in new fields which are unlicensed?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40219070.html?type=amp&__twitter_impression=true

LawBoy2018 · 07-02-2021 2:07pm

Kilboor wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40219070.html?type=amp&__twitter_impression=true

"Projects such as Barryroe will still require separate regulatory, government, and environmental approval before work can begin, but Mr Ryan not changing the existing drilling ban proposals means they should have a future."

An interesting one to watch though!

I think the project is a non-runner tbh. See: "Anti-drilling campaigners have welcomed the update, but want more. Friends of the Earth said any new drilling is not compatible with the Paris climate change agreement."

I 100% agree with their interpretation of the Paris agreement and think the project will be stopped by the courts.

Kilboor · 07-02-2021 2:12pm

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

"Projects such as Barryroe will still require separate regulatory, government, and environmental approval before work can begin, but Mr Ryan not changing the existing drilling ban proposals means they should have a future."

An interesting one to watch though!

I think the project is a non-runner tbh. See: "Anti-drilling campaigners have welcomed the update, but want more. Friends of the Earth said any new drilling is not compatible with the Paris climate change agreement."

I 100% agree with their interpretation of the Paris agreement and think the project will be stopped by the courts.

The first part you highlighted has always been the case and I've already said that's what is holding the project up particularly the environmental report

The second part, I'm not sure. Considering the fact many other countries who have signed that agreement continue to drill, it would be misguided and unfortunate for us to abandon the ability to extract value from what we can in the remaining time until 2050 deadline. This money can be used for jobs, transitioning to green energy, as well as using the gas reserves in Barryroe to secure our energy needs until that time. We are struggling post brexit with energy production.

Providence Resources

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