Providence Resources

Kilboor

Farm Out agreed and signed it seems:


https://www.businesspost.ie/energy/providence-seals-deal-to-farm-out-stake-in-barryroe-oil-and-gas-field-e1ddd3e6

Kilboor

The saga continues:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/providence-resources-p-l-c-070000417.html

chrisd2019

Kilboor wrote: »

Farm Out agreed and signed it seems:


https://www.businesspost.ie/energy/providence-seals-deal-to-farm-out-stake-in-barryroe-oil-and-gas-field-e1ddd3e6

Nothing is every black or white with this company.
Not the first time for such drama around a deadline with this company.

Kilboor

chrisd2019 wrote: »

Nothing is every black or white with this company.
Not the first time for such drama around a deadline with this company.

Definitely not but a loss of integrity for business post if they're wrong

Market responding well to the news

chrisd2019

Kilboor wrote: »

Definitely not but a loss of integrity for business post if they're wrong

Market responding well to the news

Personally, will sit on the fence regarding this project as the risk reward profile of this company and project is not in my opinion weighted beneficially for a small investor / shareholder. I have a feeling any final farm out will leave Providence with a much smaller % of the final completed project.
Another concern I have is the time frame for the various steps in the field development.

greenfield21

Kilboor wrote: »

Definitely not but a loss of integrity for business post if they're wrong

Market responding well to the news

Iirc there was an RNS on press speculation saying discussions were ongoing. Knowing the history I'll wait for confirmation of agreement.

Kilboor

Signed and agreed

https://investegate.co.uk/providence-res---pvr-/gnw/providence-resources-p-l-c---farm-out-agreement-signed---standard-exploration-licence-1-11-barryroe-oil-and-gas-field--north-celtic-sea/20201130154433H3190/

Kilboor

Slaughtered. Market doesn't like waiting on Eamon Ryan or Funding.

littlevillage

Kilboor wrote: »

Slaughtered. Market doesn't like waiting on Eamon Ryan or Funding.

Soo, the deal is signed, but its conditional on the money coming from SpotOn and Irish Government giving the go ahead.

In other words, they are back exactly where they were with APEC.

I'm down a few bob now, but only on a small position that I opened up last week. Need to decide now if I will hang on.....and maybe double down on the dip....or just dump it altogether.

Kilboor

littlevillage wrote: »

Soo, the deal is signed, but its conditional on the money coming from SpotOn and Irish Government giving the go ahead.

In other words, they are back exactly where they were with APEC.

I'm down a few bob now, but only on a small position that I opened up last week. Need to decide now if I will hang on.....and maybe double down on the dip....or just dump it altogether.

I would say it will consolidate upwards from tomorrow on.

It's good news for any long term investors.

Kilboor

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/oil-could-flow-from-barryroe-within-three-years-1.4423686?mode=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1130/1181514-deal-signed-to-develop-barryroe-oil-and-gas-field/


https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40110890.html

Good media coverage at least

littlevillage

Kilboor wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/energy-and-resources/oil-could-flow-from-barryroe-within-three-years-1.4423686?mode=amp&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter


https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1130/1181514-deal-signed-to-develop-barryroe-oil-and-gas-field/


https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40110890.html

Good media coverage at least

Seems Alan Linn is putting a positive spin on things. The reality is without funds & Government approval ....they are going nowhere. SP crash, tells us everything we need to know, I suppose.

LawBoy2018

I think the market has reacted to Linn's tendency to drip-feed bogus articles to the media every now and again to hype up the project and keep people interested.

Kilboor

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

I think the market has reacted to Linn's tendency to drip-feed bogus articles to the media every now and again to hype up the project and keep people interested.

I mean there's nothing in any of Linn's articles that differs much from the farmout agreement.

I've taken some time to process the news, short to medium term traders dislike the timeframe but the fundamental value proposition is still there and I am confident in SpotOns ability to lock in the funding.

News sellers triggered short term stop losses today. I believe in a rebound before week ends. Theres a fully funded farmout here with 50% of the permits costs also covered. Time frame is a year extra but I've every confidence in more info on the funds coming to the fore in the near future.

Rolling Stone

Not overly concerned with the current share price IF the project is still viable and can proceed. My main concern is with SpotOn Energy and the funding that they need to secure to make this happen. A secondary concern is Government and regulatory red tape, especially with the Green Party potentially in power over the next 4-5 years.

Yesterday's deal was essentially an agreement between two parties who don't have a pot to piss in. There doesn't appear to be a whole lot of info. about SpotOn Energy online. They were only incorporated 4 years ago and have 1 active Director. Less than 10 Employees with under 2m turnover and the company was dormant during y/e 31.08.2019.

What security would/could they offer? Perhaps the key to this is their CEO Stale Fjelland, his knowledge, experience and crucially his contacts in Norway as I'm guessing that this is where any funding is likely to come from? I'm only speculating here and if anyone has any other info. on SportOn please feel free to advise.

Would be a shame to see this fall through as there does appear to be potential with Barryroe.

Kilboor

Rolling Stone wrote: »

Not overly concerned with the current share price IF the project is still viable and can proceed. My main concern is with SpotOn Energy and the funding that they need to secure to make this happen. A secondary concern is Government and regulatory red tape, especially with the Green Party potentially in power over the next 4-5 years.

Yesterday's deal was essentially an agreement between two parties who don't have a pot to piss in. There doesn't appear to be a whole lot of info. about SpotOn Energy online. They were only incorporated 4 years ago and have 1 active Director. Less than 10 Employees with under 2m turnover and the company was dormant during y/e 31.08.2019.

What security would/could they offer? Perhaps the key to this is their CEO Stale Fjelland, his knowledge, experience and crucially his contacts in Norway as I'm guessing that this is where any funding is likely to come from? I'm only speculating here and if anyone has any other info. on SportOn please feel free to advise.

Would be a shame to see this fall through as there does appear to be potential with Barryroe.

Somebody on twitter is claiming that spoton are currently working on securing funding for the Bentley field in the North Sea and that they have raised 1.3 billion for that project.

The company who owns that field is private so no news releases etc.

Allegedly 70% of Barryroe funding is already secured with offers for taking all bonds already.

https://twitter.com/DelBoiAIM/status/1333527365113311235?s=19

chrisd2019

Kilboor wrote: »

Slaughtered. Market doesn't like waiting on Eamon Ryan or Funding.

Must say that for once I agree with the market.

This project is still far from commencement, without certainty on funding there is little progress made.

Kilboor

chrisd2019 wrote: »

Must say that for once I agree with the market.

This project is still far from commencement, without certainty on funding there is little progress made.

I understand the uncertainty but an announcement on funding in the new year would send the share price crazy. The rumours on Spot On are positive , happy to continue to gamble on that. Still above break even on Providence

littlevillage

PVR seems to have bottomed out at 5c...and climbing again now.

I'm under water on it now, not sure if I'll bother doubling down though, cause Davy commission is very high for smaller trades. (€14.99 flat rate per transaction).

Kilboor

littlevillage wrote: »

PVR seems to have bottomed out at 5c...and climbing again now.

I'm under water on it now, not sure if I'll bother doubling down though, cause Davy commission is very high for smaller trades. (€14.99 flat rate per transaction).

Consider selling for tax reasons if you do want to hold it into new year. I think we will have no problems with funding personally but always a risky play!

Kilboor

Nice rebound back to 5 p today. Bond news due by February.

Kilboor

And like that we are back to 7p

LawBoy2018

A nice drop today! Probably in response to this: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ban-on-new-oil-and-gas-exploration-to-be-put-into-legislation-40039630.html

Kilboor

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

A nice drop today! Probably in response to this: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ban-on-new-oil-and-gas-exploration-to-be-put-into-legislation-40039630.html

If Degiro allowed me to buy more I would. Existing licenses are unaffected, Providence completely unaffected by this.

Bond news by end of month, and production plan being submitted to Government this month too.

LawBoy2018

Kilboor wrote: »

If Degiro allowed me to buy more I would. Existing licenses are unaffected, Providence completely unaffected by this.

Bond news by end of month, and production plan being submitted to Government this month too.

There was a question mark as to whether Eamon Ryan would actually introduce legislation to ban oil/gas exploration.

Now that he has, there is 0 chance that he will grant the further permissions required to continue/begin operations in Cork imo.

Kilboor

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

There was a question mark as to whether Eamon Ryan would actually introduce legislation to ban oil/gas exploration.

Now that he has, there is 0 chance that he will grant the further permissions required to continue/begin operations in Cork imo.

That's simply untrue. I'd argue this is him trying to look good banning all FUTURE non existing license explorations and drilling before he is forced to approve Barryroe.

https://twitter.com/OffshoreIreland/status/1356541304705085440

LawBoy2018

Kilboor wrote: »

That's simply untrue. I'd argue this is him trying to look good banning all FUTURE non existing license explorations and drilling before he is forced to approve Barryroe.

https://twitter.com/OffshoreIreland/status/1356541304705085440

It's just my opinion sir. It will definitely be interesting to see how things pan out in the end!

Is there any date announced as to when they envisage the project beginning operations?

Kilboor

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

It's just my opinion sir. It will definitely be interesting to see how things pan out in the end!

Is there any date announced as to when they envisage the project beginning operations?

No problem, I always appreciate a devil's advocate for my investments.

By 2023 at the latest. Supposed to submit production proposal during this month and bond news end of month.

LawBoy2018

From a logistics perspective, is it just Ryan holding them up? Have they secured all of their funding or just part of it?

Kilboor

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

From a logistics perspective, is it just Ryan holding them up? Have they secured all of their funding or just part of it?

The environmental impact report will take around 9-12 months to complete, that begins after the proposals for development are submitted (word on the street is some time this month).

If Ryan does not submit a production license or delays it without valid reason then the Irish Government will have to pay compensation, this amount I'm unsure of but presumably a large chunk of the total costs of exploration to date and lost future value so 200 mil +

Funding wise they are currently in the bond markets, Pareto is facilitating the bond for SpotOn. The rumour is they (Pareto) completed the bond raise for PTAL today and are now fully focused on closing out for SpotOn/Providence. SpotOn have also registered in Ireland as of December.

Brent nearing the 60 mark too, good times ahead imo

Current oil prices, and no tax on the first 200 million earned (offsetting exploration costs) will see Bondholders paid back soon after production.

LawBoy2018

Kilboor wrote: »

The environmental impact report will take around 9-12 months to complete, that begins after the proposals for development are submitted (word on the street is some time this month).

If Ryan does not submit a production license or delays it without valid reason then the Irish Government will have to pay compensation, this amount I'm unsure of but presumably a large chunk of the total costs of exploration to date and lost future value so 200 mil +

Funding wise they are currently in the bond markets, Pareto is facilitating the bond for SpotOn. The rumour is they (Pareto) completed the bond raise for PTAL today and are now fully focused on closing out for SpotOn/Providence. SpotOn have also registered in Ireland as of December.

Brent nearing the 60 mark too, good times ahead imo

Current oil prices, and no tax on the first 200 million earned (offsetting exploration costs) will see Bondholders paid back soon after production.

On what legal basis would the Government need to pay any compensation? Breach of contract? I'd imagine such a contract would be subject to the requisite permissions, if it even exists?

Rolling Stone

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

A nice drop today! Probably in response to this: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/ban-on-new-oil-and-gas-exploration-to-be-put-into-legislation-40039630.html

This could be interpreted as Eamonn Ryan playing politics. If he approves production at Barryroe, it will be seen as a big concession from Green Party members, especially the hardcore element. He needs to secure something in return to offset any fallout from approving Barryroe. He was never going to approve Barryroe without having gained something to go back to Green Party members with.

Kilboor

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

On what legal basis would the Government need to pay any compensation? Breach of contract? I'd imagine such a contract would be subject to the requisite permissions, if it even exists?

Not sure on the legality but no doubt there would be a case, it's not something I'm using as a value metric but for the Government to essentially write off providence resources at this point, so close to production (assuming funding is secured by end of month) and after spending north of 200 million euro, which in effect will also ruin the business for any future developments and partnerships, there could be a hefty case. Add the involvement of the farmout partners who will also lose out and it won't be an easy case to defend. Again though I am confident Ryan is trying to improve his image before Barryroe goes to production. There's a reason he's rushing this in now, good news before the bad (for him)

Providence have threatened in the past with the initial drilling ban legislation from 2019.

LawBoy2018

Kilboor wrote: »

Not sure on the legality but no doubt there would be a case, it's not something I'm using as a value metric but for the Government to essentially write off providence resources at this point, so close to production (assuming funding is secured by end of month) and after spending north of 200 million euro, which in effect will also ruin the business for any future developments and partnerships, there could be a hefty case. Add the involvement of the farmout partners who will also lose out and it won't be an easy case to defend. Again though I am confident Ryan is trying to improve his image before Barryroe goes to production. There's a reason he's rushing this in now, good news before the bad (for him)

Providence have threatened in the past with the initial drilling ban legislation from 2019.

A case for what though? The Gov make our laws. PR could bring an application for judicial review but that would be it I'd say.

Such an action would be akin to a radioactive rubber duck salesman trying to sue the Government for banning the sale of radioactive rubber ducks.

The fact that a particular salesman spent $1 billion on radioactive ducks prior to the implementation of the legislation banning the sale of such products is irrelevant. The product was harmful to people's health and the Government decided that public health was more important than the hard done by salesman's finances.

AFAIK, there is no formal agreement between Providence Resources + the Irish government, meaning that it's very possible that the Gov will do a u-turn re Corrib and Barryroe.

(my opinion, could very well be wrong)

Kilboor

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

A case for what though? The Gov make our laws. PR could bring an application for judicial review but that would be it I'd say.

Such an action would be akin to a radioactive rubber duck salesman trying to sue the Government for banning the sale of radioactive rubber ducks.

The fact that a particular salesman spent $1 billion on radioactive ducks prior to the implementation of the legislation banning the sale of such products is irrelevant. The product was harmful to people's health and the Government decided that public health was more important than the hard done by salesman's finances.

AFAIK, there is no formal agreement between Providence Resources + the Irish government, meaning that it's very possible that the Gov will do a u-turn re Corrib and Barryroe.

(my opinion, could very well be wrong)

I think it's a little different considering oil is something this country will continue importing for the foreseeable future. They're not banning oil. Also to add to this Barryroe has a viable amount of gas too. Natural gas is necessary to secure our future energy requirements, Barryroe's oil on the other hand is too good to use for energy according to Alan Linn.

Bad for business if they do a u-turn, not only for exploration companies but for any long term private investment.

LawBoy2018

Kilboor wrote: »

I think it's a little different considering oil is something this country will continue importing for the foreseeable future. They're not banning oil.

Bad for business of they do a u-turn, not only for exploration companies but for any long term private investment.

But also bad + potentially lethal for the Greens if the projects commence!

They're already bleeding members which will have them rattled.

Kilboor

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

But also bad + potentially lethal for the Greens if the projects commence!

They're already bleeding members which will have them rattled.

That's their own problem. The scope of what they promise to do in Govt is always vastly exaggerated, we've seen it time and time again. They aren't the majority.

LawBoy2018

Kilboor wrote: »

That's their own problem. The scope of what they promise to do in Govt is always vastly exaggerated, we've seen it time and time again. They aren't the majority.

FF/FG need them though and I could see Green party members taking a hard stance on this matter. There's 0 chance that MM would risk an election atm, there are far bigger fish to fry.

Kilboor

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

FF/FG need them though and I could see Green party members taking a hard stance on this matter. There's 0 chance that MM would risk an election atm, there are far bigger fish to fry.

I don't think Eamon Ryan would risk an election either though so the same could be said for him approving Barryroe with the caveat that future oil and gas exploration and drilling is now stopped. It's a sensible win for the greens while not being too chaotic. They'll lose members but the reality is the green party are never going to be stable in their approaches to policy, hardliners extinction rebellion types and extreme policies are something that Eamon Ryan will never introduce as he knows it will be unpopular among the moderate green party voters (of which I myself was one in the election before the last)

littlevillage

Providence Resources have applied for a exploration/drilling licences under the existing regulatory regime. The Government wouldn't be able to retrospectively change that. They can only change things going forward... otherwise you would imagine that would be a scenario where PR could sue.

Kilboor

The main man himself, Alan Linn, was on Rte 6 O'Clock news

Kilboor

Sunday Business Post:

- SpotOn have approached Providence Resources with a merger offer.

- Providence to consider only after funding secured

- Funding has to be in place by month end

LawBoy2018

Kilboor wrote: »

Sunday Business Post:

- SpotOn have approached Providence Resources with a merger offer.

- Providence to consider only after funding secured

- Funding has to be in place by month end

Very interesting! How might it affect the share price tomorrow?

greenfield21

Always jam tomorrow with these aim stocks. How much more money can the board squeeze out of this. It's like deja vu with the Chinese. Tomorrow will probably be up but need to see more details and confirmation. In saying that it's a highly volatile penny stock that is up over 400% of its lows so I can't give out too much.

LawBoy2018

greenfield21 wrote: »

Always jam tomorrow with these aim stocks. How much more money can the board squeeze out of this. It's like deja vu with the Chinese. Tomorrow will probably be up but need to see more details and confirmation. In saying that it's a highly volatile penny stock that is up over 400% of its lows so I can't give out too much.

I agree. Alan Linn & co. are excellent at keeping the company relevant though! He'd give Michael O'Leary a run for his money..

Did you smash it

When does their license for drilling in Ballyroe run out? Can they renew it?

Is the new proposed legislation affect their interest in Ballyroe or only in new fields which are unlicensed?

Kilboor

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

Very interesting! How might it affect the share price tomorrow?

Positively I'd imagine.

Thoughts among shareholders are that SpotOn and the consortium may takeover Providence and use it to develop the Bentley North Sea Field after Barryroe development starts.

Essentially Providence becomes a cash shell for further developments.

Can't see the share price going anything but up.

Kilboor

Did you smash it wrote: »

When does their license for drilling in Ballyroe run out? Can they renew it?

Is the new proposed legislation affect their interest in Ballyroe or only in new fields which are unlicensed?

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40219070.html?type=amp&__twitter_impression=true

LawBoy2018

Kilboor wrote: »

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-40219070.html?type=amp&__twitter_impression=true

"Projects such as Barryroe will still require separate regulatory, government, and environmental approval before work can begin, but Mr Ryan not changing the existing drilling ban proposals means they should have a future."

An interesting one to watch though!

I think the project is a non-runner tbh. See: "Anti-drilling campaigners have welcomed the update, but want more. Friends of the Earth said any new drilling is not compatible with the Paris climate change agreement."

I 100% agree with their interpretation of the Paris agreement and think the project will be stopped by the courts.

Kilboor

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

"Projects such as Barryroe will still require separate regulatory, government, and environmental approval before work can begin, but Mr Ryan not changing the existing drilling ban proposals means they should have a future."

An interesting one to watch though!

I think the project is a non-runner tbh. See: "Anti-drilling campaigners have welcomed the update, but want more. Friends of the Earth said any new drilling is not compatible with the Paris climate change agreement."

I 100% agree with their interpretation of the Paris agreement and think the project will be stopped by the courts.

The first part you highlighted has always been the case and I've already said that's what is holding the project up particularly the environmental report

The second part, I'm not sure. Considering the fact many other countries who have signed that agreement continue to drill, it would be misguided and unfortunate for us to abandon the ability to extract value from what we can in the remaining time until 2050 deadline. This money can be used for jobs, transitioning to green energy, as well as using the gas reserves in Barryroe to secure our energy needs until that time. We are struggling post brexit with energy production.