Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

ZX7R · 15-12-2018 7:27am

DOCARCH wrote: »

DunLaoghaire currently reporting gust of 59kts, and Dublin Bay Buoy reporting wave height of 5.8m (....that's very high for Dublin Bay!).

quite a stormy night in maynooth last night,not looking forward traveling this evening to work by motorbike,i hate the wind.

Graces7 · 15-12-2018 7:28am

DOCARCH wrote: »

Just bear in mind that Storm Deirdre will not arrive until later. Orange warning comes into effect at 3pm.

so the heavy non stop deluges are extra? :rolleyes:

DOCARCH · 15-12-2018 7:29am

Graces7 wrote: »

so the heavy non stop deluges are extra? :rolleyes:

Christmas bonus!

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2018 8:06am

The impulse for this storm recently moved across the PAP buoy at 49N 16W, so far just in an embryonic stage. High seas seem to be fairly widespread in advance of this developing storm, a leftover result of Thursday's wind fetch.

The wind sequence with this storm will be interesting. In the eastern half of the country, strong southeast winds will tend to weaken as the trough approaches, at some point around 3-5 p.m. could go almost calm, then pick up rapidly from the west reaching gale to storm force gusts. In the west, the wind is likely to fade out gradually this morning to nearly calm, then will pick up gradually from the northwest at first, until there's a stronger gradient developed, then will reach gale to storm force gusts early to mid afternoon.

Just wanted some less weather-conscious readers to know that some intervals of light winds are likely, so that nobody assumes the storm has fizzled out. Along the south coast, this sequence will be particularly abrupt, as soon as the elongated trough moves east, winds will suddenly pick up to 80-120 km/hr westerly (about 3 p.m. Cork to 5 p.m. Wexford).

licklelee5 · 15-12-2018 8:11am

We are due to fly into Dublin from the UK at around 8pm, just wondering if anyone in the know thinks this will still be likely?
Will start to make alternative plans.
Thanks all, always great advice here.

Gaoth Laidir · 15-12-2018 8:23am

Look at the difference in wind direction between Dublin Airport and Casement at the moment. They're just 20 km apart.

SEPT 23 1989 · 15-12-2018 8:37am

Woken up by a few very violent gusts in the last 20 minutes

Newcastle Dublin

pad199207 · 15-12-2018 8:38am

Very strong gusts in Naas

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2018 8:53am

Hirlam FMI depiction is particularly intense, moves the low somewhat further north on an inland track and also has that more circular end result without the elongated trough being very prominent. If that's exactly how this plays out, it could be more like code red winds for parts of the south coast spreading into the inland southeast. That scenario would reduce (for some coastal areas) any intervals of winds going slack then shifting, it would be more like an Ophelia wind field gradually increasing to storm force and slowly veering southeast to southwest.

The other Hirlam depiction is not quite as intense. Most of the other models held serve on their previous looks (to me anyway), but each in its own way would deliver some storm force gusts.

Anyway, will be brewing some coffee and staying up with this one, should have reliable indications by about 10 or 11 as to exact track and intensity, well placed ocean buoys to help us (K3 for example).

redsteveireland · 15-12-2018 8:58am

Calm, but wet, in the west.

Kamili · 15-12-2018 8:59am

I see the UK Met have a freezing rain warning out for large parts of their country..

Are we likely to see any? I've never experienced it..

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2018 9:03am

Kamili wrote: »

I see the UK Met have a freezing rain warning out for large parts of their country..

Are we likely to see any? I've never experienced it..

Not for Ireland, the central parts of Britain have a shallow surface layer of colder air that crept over from France and the rain will be falling into that, freezing on the surface (it doesn't have time to freeze in the air while falling, or it would become ice pellets or sleet). No part of Ireland will turn any colder than it is now so just plain rain. Same for parts of southwest England and coastal Wales that are above freezing as this sets in.

vid36 · 15-12-2018 9:03am

Kamili wrote: »

I see the UK Met have a freezing rain warning out for large parts of their country..

Are we likely to see any? I've never experienced it..

There was some in Ireland on December 26 2009

DOCARCH · 15-12-2018 9:10am

Wind easing a bit now in Dublin 16. Was like the Daughter of Deirdre here earlier! Some very strong gusts.

Graces7 · 15-12-2018 9:12am

still calm and still deluging, and still very dark, West Mayo offshore

Tigerandahalf · 15-12-2018 9:19am

Will this be a non event in the west except for rain? South getting the worst?

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 9:20am

Was looking through the various models on the phone and was surprised to see most of them step back from the earlier very strong winds that they were showing.

To show an example these were the maximum wind speeds being shown by ICON, big change.

Even the ECM not showing the strongest winds track inland ( still windy but not as intense ). Maybe they have backed off or perhaps on next run show them again, not sure. As MT said FMI -HIRLAM looking the strongest, it has not altered it's wind speeds ( apart from being a bit stronger ) or track from previous run.

munsterlegend · 15-12-2018 9:21am

Miserable near Mallow. Gusty winds and heavy rain.

nthclare · 15-12-2018 9:22am

munsterlegend wrote: »

Miserable near Mallow. Gusty winds and heavy rain.

Still quite in Clare
I postponed a trip today due to aquaplane forecasts etc lol

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 9:24am

Is this the outlier and the others more accurate ?

It looks very severe below if it were to verify.

munsterlegend · 15-12-2018 9:25am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Is this the outlier and the others more accurate ?

It looks very severe below if it were to verify

Would Hirlam not be more accurate at this range?

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 9:33am

HIRLAM 0Z Mean wind speeds

925hPa winds ( .75 km approx height ) would be a guide to what gusts to expect according to the HIRLAM

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 9:36am

munsterlegend wrote: »

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Is this the outlier and the others more accurate ?

It looks very severe below if it were to verify

Would Hirlam not be more accurate at this range?

I would have thought so . The French models have really held off keeping the strongest winds out to sea and along the coastal fringes which is surprising .

downwiththatsor · 15-12-2018 9:43am

When do Met Eireann get Harmonie updates?

mickger844posts · 15-12-2018 9:53am

Gusty winds out there with 28.2mm of rain since Midnight. Max gust 65km/h.

www.waterfordweather.com

DOCARCH · 15-12-2018 9:59am

Fastnet staring to pick up a bit of wind. 44kt gusting 52kt atm.

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2018 9:59am

If Hirlam FMI is the best guidance we will have indications from sharper pressure falls at K1, K3 and M3 buoys at 0900h and 1000h. The signs from 0800h were inconclusive, steady falls in progress. Also there should be a very rapid intensification signature in the satellite imagery around 50N 12W. I am currently working on a graphic to show where those buoys are in relation to Valentia and Sherkin Island, Cork and Roches Point. Then if Hirlam FMI is on track the central pressure of this storm will fall much faster than is allowed on other guidance and should be close to 980 mbs by 1100h. (it looks to be about 988 mbs now). Unfortunately the buoys don't report until well into the hour so the 0900 readings will be available after 0930.

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 10:01am

ICON 06Z rolling out now, similar to the last run keeping the strongest winds to coastal areas ( slightly higher winds inland from the coasts that the previous run ) but still gusting up to 110 inland going by this run , maybe a bit more in the SE.

Not disputing what Met Eireann have forecast just my own observations going by the information available . I would imagine that the forecasters would allow for wobbles in the charts from run to run and work out an average and use their experience on what the probable outcome will be. Of course they have their own Hi Res model now too so putting it to a good test !

munsterlegend · 15-12-2018 10:10am

No change in Met Eireann update at 9am to previous forecast. Still going for damaging gusts across the country later today.

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 10:12am

Strongest winds not expected until early afternoon. Quite windy up along the E coasts all morning.

Sycamore Tree · 15-12-2018 10:14am

Surprisingly calm in Galway this morning. No obvious signs of major rainfall as yet.

munsterlegend · 15-12-2018 10:16am

Spot flooding in parts of Cork already so it will be very messy later never mind with the the stronger winds.

fred funk }{ · 15-12-2018 10:16am

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Surprisingly calm in Galway this morning. No obvious signs of major rainfall as yet.

Very windy South Wicklow. Some gusts shifting roof tiles.

realdanbreen · 15-12-2018 10:16am

Just wondering. When they predicted 30-50mm rainfall on last evening 9pm news was that including whatever rain fell last night or is it the amount due to fall during storm deride? Flooding is my concern but I can live with 50mm over a prolonged period.

Mortelaro · 15-12-2018 10:21am

fred funk }{ wrote: »

Very windy South Wicklow. Some gusts shifting roof tiles.

https://twitter.com/Arklowweather/status/1073866020648075264?s=09

2013Lara · 15-12-2018 10:25am

Can really hear the wind getting going now in coastal Wicklow town.

DOCARCH · 15-12-2018 10:38am

Wind is back up and running again in Dublin 16. Some very string gusts.

Dublin Bay Buoy reporting 38kt gusting 57kt.

realdanbreen · 15-12-2018 10:39am

realdanbreen wrote: »

Just wondering. When they predicted 30-50mm rainfall on last evening 9pm news was that including whatever rain fell last night or is it the amount due to fall during storm deride? Flooding is my concern but I can live with 50mm over a prolonged period.

?

squarecircles · 15-12-2018 10:40am

flat calm,west Mayo,

unrelenting rain.

giveitholly · 15-12-2018 10:42am

realdanbreen wrote: »

?

The rainfall warning began midnight last night so I would presume it includes last nights totals but I'm sure the experts here would be able to tell you for sure

DOCARCH · 15-12-2018 10:43am

squarecircles wrote: »

flat calm,west Mayo.

The east is the new west!

DunLaoghaire Harbour reporting 34kt gusting 54kt.

Graces7 · 15-12-2018 10:46am

went outside when it finally got light enough... my drive is waterlogged and so is the back. Never seen it as bad and still deluging. No mountains . Just a wall of water in every direction and a calm ocean

west mayo offshore

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2018 10:47am

Map for Storm Deirdre development 0900-1200 Sat 15 Dec 2018

________________________________________________________________________________

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ 13_ _ _ _12_ _ _ _11_ _ _ _10_ _ _ _09_ _ _ _08 W long

52N

:

:V

:---C

:
.................................................................^^..............R...... (Kinsale energy)
51.5

:

S----:

K-:
.....................................................M3................................ (M3 buoy)
51N ----K3----:

:

:
.........................................................................................
50.5

:

:
.........................................................................................
50N

:

: >> Scilly 6W
.........................................................................................
49.5

:

:
.........................................................................................
49N

:

:
..........................K1.......................................................... >> Brest 5W
48.5

:

:
.........................................................................................
48N

:

:
................................................................................Fr-b... (French buoy)

Pressures observed 0900h -- with approx position of LOW from satellite imagery and wind field

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ 13_ _ _ _12_ _ _ _11_ _ _ _10_ _ _ _09_ _ _ _08 W

52N

:

:987

:--992----:
.................................................................^^.............992...
51.5

:

:----991--:

K-: (K n/a)
....................................................988................................
51N ---990--- :

:

:
.........................................................................................
50.5

:

:
.........................................................................................
50N

:

LOW

:

:
.........................................................................................
49.5

:

:
.........................................................................................
49N

:

:
..........................988..........................................................
48.5

:

:
.........................................................................................
48N

:

:
................................................................................1003...

Analysis -- The K1 buoy shows larger pressure drops than other locations, wind there has increased from 28 to 34 knots.

Satellite imagery location for LOW is shown on grid above (50N 12W). About 986 mbs.

Needs to be around 980 mbs near 50.5N 11.5W at 10h. Will post same map (data only) around 1040h.

Rock Lesnar · 15-12-2018 10:47am

Fairly windy in my area of meath, with on and off spells of rain, (currently raining) just a typical winters day so far

harr · 15-12-2018 10:51am

Absolutely brutal morning here in Laois...cold, very wet and windy. Spot flooding in places.

corsav6 · 15-12-2018 10:52am

Light wind but consistent rain here outside Newport, Mayo.
Forgot to replace batteries in my rainfall gauge so won't get readings but ME weather station is not too far away so I can go by that.

Clonmel1000 · 15-12-2018 10:57am

Brutal morning here in south Tipp. Breezy not especially windy but heavy driving way. You’d have to feel for traders and shoppers today. There’s only so many days you can “light the fire and close the curtains”. Thankfully I’m escaping Thursday.

Widdensushi · 15-12-2018 11:07am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Map for Storm Deirdre development 0900-1200 Sat 15 Dec 2018

________________________________________________________________________________

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ 13_ _ _ _12_ _ _ _11_ _ _ _10_ _ _ _09_ _ _ _08 W long

52N
:
:
:
:V
:---C
:
.................................................................^^..............R...... (Kinsale energy)
51.5
:
:
:
:
S----:
K-:
.....................................................M3................................ (M3 buoy)
51N ----K3----:
:
:
:
:
:
.........................................................................................
50.5
:
:
:
:
:
:
.........................................................................................
50N
:
:
:
:
:
: >> Scilly 6W
.........................................................................................
49.5
:
:
:
:
:
:
.........................................................................................
49N
:
:
:
:
:
:
..........................K1.......................................................... >> Brest 5W
48.5
:
:
:
:
:
:
.........................................................................................
48N
:
:
:
:
:
:
................................................................................Fr-b... (French buoy)

Pressures observed 0900h -- with approx position of LOW from satellite imagery and wind field

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ 13_ _ _ _12_ _ _ _11_ _ _ _10_ _ _ _09_ _ _ _08 W

52N
:
:
:
:987
:--992----:
.................................................................^^.............992...
51.5
:
:
:
:----991--:
K-: (K n/a)
....................................................988................................
51N ---990--- :
:
:
:
:
:
.........................................................................................
50.5
:
:
:
:
:
:
.........................................................................................
50N
:
LOW
:
:
:
:
.........................................................................................
49.5
:
:
:
:
:
:
.........................................................................................
49N
:
:
:
:
:
:
..........................988..........................................................
48.5
:
:
:
:
:
:
.........................................................................................
48N
:
:
:
:
:
:
................................................................................1003...

Analysis -- The K1 buoy shows larger pressure drops than other locations, wind there has increased from 28 to 34 knots.

Satellite imagery location for LOW is shown on grid above (50N 12W). About 986 mbs.

Needs to be around 980 mbs near 50.5N 11.5W at 10h. Will post same map (data only) around 1040h.

Does that indicate that the worst of the wind might pass south of the country?

Graces7 · 15-12-2018 11:12am

The tide is full; I can hear the breakers crashing the rocks against each other; does that have an effect on weather events? west mayo offshore

M.T. Cranium · 15-12-2018 11:13am

The 0900h map is the first of three that I plan to analyze, in an effort to test out which model is on track -- taken by itself, this map does not lean towards any forecast conclusion. Comparison with 10h and 11h will give us a better idea.

Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

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