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Property Market 2018

16061626466

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    fungie wrote: »
    Has anybody else found it in the last few months that asking prices are being set very unrealistically? We are looking in north Dublin and found a few good places and put bids on them a few % below asking (5-10%). These are generally outright declined but remain the highest bid for some time (a month or so). The demand for them is also low, at most one or two people per viewing.

    In some cases I've went to estate agent and said I'd happy go between my bid and asking and get the deal done but vendor comes back with something like 1% under asking which isn't much of a compromise.

    Stop bidding against yourself . Tell the EA that x is what you are willing to pay and youv other properties to view so there won't be another bid from you. Take it or leave it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    fungie wrote: »
    Has anybody else found it in the last few months that asking prices are being set very unrealistically? We are looking in north Dublin and found a few good places and put bids on them a few % below asking (5-10%). These are generally outright declined but remain the highest bid for some time (a month or so). The demand for them is also low, at most one or two people per viewing.

    In some cases I've went to estate agent and said I'd happy go between my bid and asking and get the deal done but vendor comes back with something like 1% under asking which isn't much of a compromise.

    Consensus seems to be that estate agents have over shot the market now and will start reeling prices back in once they see people won't pay. Or alternatively they are waiting for exemption time in January when people will have more money.

    On the exemptions, I think something needs to be done about how they are handled. The market will become like buying new cars, with a glut of sales in the early parts of the year, followed by 6-8 months of waiting around. That would suit no one and seems to be what's happening to the poster I replied to.


  • Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    I am finding the same the whole system is flawed...

    I feel the EA is shady and lying about potential bids at least in my case?

    Is there any regulation against this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭fungie


    dor843088 wrote: »
    Stop bidding against yourself . Tell the EA that x is what you are willing to pay and youv other properties to view so there won't be another bid from you. Take it or leave it.

    I get where you are coming from and I wouldn't bid against myself in any circumstances other than the one that secures property. Seems vendors not willing to drop from asking price much though as was mentioned, maybe they waiting for new year and exceptions.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    mkdon wrote: »
    I am finding the same the whole system is flawed...

    I feel the EA is shady and lying about potential bids at least in my case?

    Is there any regulation against this?

    everyone feels that when they are bidding, its very unlikely that anything shady is going on, whats to be gained by an EA? they would much rather sell at your lower offer than hold out for an extra 20k that means very little to them


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 809 ✭✭✭filbert the fox


    Cyrus wrote: »
    everyone feels that when they are bidding, its very unlikely that anything shady is going on, whats to be gained by an EA? they would much rather sell at your lower offer than hold out for an extra 20k that means very little to them

    Really? No additional commission?

    No recommendations from satisfied vendors?

    No top salesperson bonus?

    c'mon....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭beaz2018


    fungie wrote: »
    Has anybody else found it in the last few months that asking prices are being set very unrealistically? We are looking in north Dublin and found a few good places and put bids on them a few % below asking (5-10%). These are generally outright declined but remain the highest bid for some time (a month or so). The demand for them is also low, at most one or two people per viewing.

    In some cases I've went to estate agent and said I'd happy go between my bid and asking and get the deal done but vendor comes back with something like 1% under asking which isn't much of a compromise.

    If you were a vendor would you really sell your house 2 weeks before xmas for under asking price when people are coming with more buying power in the new year?


  • Registered Users Posts: 15 Beheretomorrow


    fungie wrote: »
    Has anybody else found it in the last few months that asking prices are being set very unrealistically? We are looking in north Dublin and found a few good places and put bids on them a few % below asking (5-10%). These are generally outright declined but remain the highest bid for some time (a month or so). The demand for them is also low, at most one or two people per viewing.

    In some cases I've went to estate agent and said I'd happy go between my bid and asking and get the deal done but vendor comes back with something like 1% under asking which isn't much of a compromise.



    Same experience here. I believe they're trying to maintain pricing in the short term in hope that the current market turbulence is short term so they don't undermine their ability to get higher prices in the future. If the money doesn't come by Feb I'm hopeful prices will fall then.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    beaz2018 wrote: »
    if you were a vendor would you really sell your house 2 weeks before xmas for under asking price when people are coming with more buying power in the new year?

    If you were a vendor would you not except an offer when the people next year may have less buying power?

    Not saying they will or wont but that could go either way.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭beaz2018


    Zenify wrote: »
    If you were a vendor would you not except an offer when the people next year may have less buying power?

    Not saying they will or wont but that could go either way.

    Im not saying they are guaranteed to have more buying power but there is a good chance considering they may have another few months savings, possible exemptions, possible pay rises in a very competitive Dublin employment market, slight decrease in tax.

    Are you really suggesting that a good time to sell a house is 2 weeks before xmas?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 695 ✭✭✭fungie


    beaz2018 wrote: »
    If you were a vendor would you really sell your house 2 weeks before xmas for under asking price when people are coming with more buying power in the new year?

    If you have to move into a new house in the new year, yes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    beaz2018 wrote: »
    Im not saying they are guaranteed to have more buying power but there is a good chance considering they may have another few months savings, possible exemptions, possible pay rises in a very competitive Dublin employment market, slight decrease in tax.

    Are you really suggesting that a good time to sell a house is 2 weeks before xmas?

    It's not a good time to sell at all. There are going to be exemptions in the new year which will give some buyers more money.

    I was only saying that because there may be a good few vendors waiting for next year which adds to the supply. Also, I know a few landlords that want out and saw the market in Dublin cooling. They are waiting on the notices they have given their tenants.

    Theres a risk either way, that was my point. It's looking a lot riskier going into 2019 than it did in the last few years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Really? No additional commission?

    No recommendations from satisfied vendors?

    No top salesperson bonus?

    c'mon....

    do you understand how much extra commission an extra 20k would generate?

    say they are working off 1.5%, thats €300. How much of that you think finds it way to the individuals pocket?

    Sell a house for 300k, generate €4.5k income for the firm, sell it for 320k generate €4.8k. Do you honestly think they want to hold out for €300?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,783 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Cyrus wrote: »
    do you understand how much extra commission an extra 20k would generate?

    say they are working off 1.5%, thats €300. How much of that you think finds it way to the individuals pocket?

    Sell a house for 300k, generate €4.5k income for the firm, sell it for 320k generate €4.8k. Do you honestly think they want to hold out for €300?

    That's the small picture.
    The bigger picture is an increased selling price leads to an increased "base" for other houses in the area. Higher base prices are good for all auctioneers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    kippy wrote: »
    That's the small picture.
    The bigger picture is an increased selling price leads to an increased "base" for other houses in the area. Higher base prices are good for all auctioneers.

    sales people are generally small picture folk


  • Registered Users Posts: 236 ✭✭Moonjet


    fungie wrote: »
    Has anybody else found it in the last few months that asking prices are being set very unrealistically? We are looking in north Dublin and found a few good places and put bids on them a few % below asking (5-10%). These are generally outright declined but remain the highest bid for some time (a month or so). The demand for them is also low, at most one or two people per viewing.

    In some cases I've went to estate agent and said I'd happy go between my bid and asking and get the deal done but vendor comes back with something like 1% under asking which isn't much of a compromise.


    Looking at this situation from your point of view only, results in confirmation bias. It benefits you for the seller to accept a lower price, so you can't make sense of why they won't. On the other side is a seller who is probably moving somewhere else (within the Irish property market) and needs X amount to cover the purchase costs of their new house (which the seller of is not dropping price either.)



    There are no firesales going on in the market, so it's rare to find someone desperate enough to sell that they'll accept below asking price. It pays to wait long enough for the asking price or above so that's why we see this behaviour from sellers and EAs.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    When looking at property prices it always seems to base it on the average asking price.

    I would tend to take asking prices with a pinch of salt.

    But could there be a situation where there are more sales, but the average sale price is less because people are now buying apartments and not houses. The average price could go down a bit, but the sales could go up at the same time.
    The NPPR kind of hides this info.

    info is all here

    https://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=65651&p=940415#p940415


  • Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭LotharIngum


    Cyrus wrote: »

    Actual sale prices for actual number of rooms is the one I would find telling.

    eg average of €200,000 for 1 bed apartments in Blanchardstown.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Actual sale prices for actual number of rooms is the one I would find telling.

    eg average of €200,000 for 1 bed apartments in Blanchardstown.

    better get on the PSRA then chief :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    exactly money and satisfied vendors... there needs to be regulation of EAs i asked for other bids to be through email and they are refusing ... no paper trail say it all...in my case he is pushing for a hell a lot more than 20k


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,212 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    mkdon wrote: »
    exactly money and satisfied vendors... there needs to be regulation of EAs i asked for other bids to be through email and they are refusing ... no paper trail say it all...in my case he is pushing for a hell a lot more than 20k

    There are regulations

    No one is out to get you , the vendor doesn’t want to sell for what you are offering , you need to accept that and either wait , move on or offer more .

    There is no grand conspiracy


  • Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    what are the regulations around bidding?

    the regulations dont cover or allow for phantom bids (made up by EA) do they?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,622 ✭✭✭Baby01032012


    mkdon wrote: »
    what are the regulations around bidding?

    the regulations dont cover or allow for phantom bids (made up by EA) do they?

    The regulations don’t go into specifics. I complained once to the psra and followed up by phone, spoke to the head guy who told me they have no powers in current legislation to take any action against estate agents, to quote him he said an agent would have to murder someone before they could take action.Hence why I’m going to courts directly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    CSO figures for October: https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexoctober2018/

    Looking at Dublin historical values since the recovery started for a bit of fun:
    - Oct 2018 107.9
    - Oct 2017 101.5
    - Oct 2016 91
    - Oct 2015 85.8
    - Oct 2014 84
    - Oct 2013 65.7
    - Oct 2012 58

    So in absolute value the 6.4 points increase since last year seems to be in the middle of the bunch - far less that the madness of 2013-2014, much more that the subsequent cool down of 2014-2015 and pretty close to most other years once you leave aside those 2 outliers.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,660 ✭✭✭wersal gummage


    The regulations don’t go into specifics. I complained once to the psra and followed up by phone, spoke to the head guy who told me they have no powers in current legislation to take any action against estate agents, to quote him he said an agent would have to murder someone before they could take action.Hence why I’m going to courts directly.


    Interesting.

    A very quick glance at the property services regulatory website suggests they can issue fines of up to a quarter of a million euro. You just rang and got "the head guy" ? And this person told you that nonsense? Sorry, I don't like the kind of comments that are nasty or attack people, but I believe that you are talking rubbish


  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭soirish


    Curious what's your forecast for the property market in 2019?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭kala85


    Good film called the Big Short about the banking crash in 2008 and how it happened is on bbc2 at 9pm


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Article in The Economist for this weekends issue about irelands property market. Discusses the big multinationals LinkedIn, Facebook's new headquarters etc adding to demand. Talks about risks: Brexit and our reliance on the tax of a few big companies.

    One sentence also stood out "However, there are signs of overheating, chiefly in the housing market".


  • Registered Users Posts: 713 ✭✭✭soirish


    Ireland’s hot property market is a sign of health
    20181215_eup503.jpg
    Sorry, Brits: it’s not all about Brexit

    Under the plane trees by the Grand Canal, the din of diggers drowns out the screech of seagulls. When gleaming new offices rise from the rubble, LinkedIn will take up residence. A short walk away by the canal dock, Google, which already employs 8,000 Dubliners, is building three towers and converting old flour mills. Facebook plans to leave the water for a campus with room for 7,000 in Ballsbridge, a posh central district that now houses aib, a bank.

    The tech giants’ thirst for space is one sign of Ireland’s economic rebound from the chaos of a decade ago. A wild, credit-fuelled property boom collapsed, leaving a glut of homes in the wrong places, banks heading for nationalisation and the state—which in September 2008 gave guarantees to the banks’ creditors—heading for a bail-out from the eu and the imf. It finally emerged from recession in 2012.

    Gauging Ireland’s economic health is not straightforward. At 7-8%, its gdp growth is likely to be western Europe’s fastest for the fifth year in a row in 2018, but in Ireland’s case this standard measure overstates both the size and growth of the economy. (Statisticians have devised a more useful alternative, gni*, but it is published only annually and is not adjusted for inflation. It is about 40% smaller than gdp: see chart, left.) Still, other gauges look healthy, too. This year the central bank expects domestic demand to rise by 5.6%, underlying investment by 16.4% and employment by 3%. The unemployment rate, 5.3% in November, has fallen by more than ten percentage points since 2012.

    20181215_EUC028.png

    The revival owes much to foreign direct investment, for decades Ireland’s most reliable motor. Since 2015 foreign firms have invested almost €1bn ($1.1bn) a month (not including intellectual property). Drugmakers—of which the biggest all have some presence in Ireland—have been investing at twice their trend before 2015, says Fergal O’Brien of Ibec, a business federation. He attributes much of the surge to new international tax rules requiring closer alignment of activity and reported profit. It is not confined to Dublin. Cork, in the south, is home to a pharmaceuticals cluster and a big base for Apple; medical-technology companies have sprouted in the west.

    However, there are signs of overheating, chiefly in the housing market. Granted, Ireland has avoided another credit craze. The central bank has capped most mortgages at 80% of the value of a house (90% for first-time buyers) and 3.5 times borrowers’ incomes. That has reined in prices, which are still 20% lower than in 2008. But rents have shot up, to 30% above the past peak, according to Daft.ie, a property website (see chart right).

    Around 18,000 homes will probably be built this year. Most estimates of long-term demand are double that. In sprawling, low-rise Dublin—where those Googlers, Facebookers and others are adding to demand—height restrictions have constrained the supply of flats, though these are being relaxed. Economists and ministers alike bemoan planning delays. Marian Finnegan of Sherry FitzGerald, the country’s biggest estate agent, laments a dearth of private investors, many of whom quit the market after the crash.

    Brexit may not cool the market much. Still, though forecasting its effect is a mug’s game, a hard Brexit will surely hurt. Britain is Ireland’s second-biggest export market, after America. Most eu-bound goods travel via Britain. Tourism and smaller food businesses are vulnerable to a drop in sterling. Small and medium enterprises, says Michael D’Arcy, a finance minister, “are not as Brexit-ready as we would like”. The government provided €300m in its recent budget for low-interest loans. Dan O’Brien of the Institute of International and European Affairs (iiea), a think-tank, points out that Brexit may disrupt imports too—eg, of cereals, fruit and vegetables from Britain. Especially in food, supply chains wind back and forth across the Irish Sea and the border with Northern Ireland.

    Yet Brexit’s chief effect may be to widen existing sectoral and geographical gaps. Some industries that are already thriving will probably gain, by guaranteeing access to the eu’s single market. Bank of America, Barclays and other financial firms have chosen Dublin as their post-Brexit eu headquarters. Wasdell Group, a British drug-manufacturer and packager, has chosen Dundalk, just south of the border, as the site of a new factory. Vincent Dunne, its chief executive, says a base in the eu27 eases uncertainty about mutual recognition of standards and border delays.

    A change in the global economic weather—a slowing America, rising protectionism—is another, if less immediate, risk. Ireland is unusually reliant on corporation tax, which accounts for over 10% of the total take, and, notes the iiea’s Mr O’Brien, varies with the cycle more than income tax. Just ten companies pay 39% of the haul. The crisis also casts a long shadow. Public debt still exceeds annual gni*, a better measure than gdp of taxpayers’ capacity to service it. Bad loans still make up 10% of banks’ books. The state still owns over 70% of aib and Permanent tsb, another lender, and 14% of Bank of Ireland, the biggest by assets. A small economy so open to the world will always have a bumpy ride, even if Brexit does not knock it off balance.

    https://www.economist.com/europe/2018/12/15/irelands-hot-property-market-is-a-sign-of-health


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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Thankfully they copped the Jan 2006 = 100 and not the peak of the property market- that seems to have eluded the Irish media.
    I'm not buying their hypothesis though- its only one aspect of the market that they are looking at- and they are gilding over or totally ignoring other aspects.
    Time will tell- but the rosy picture they are painting- is not nearly as healthy as they seem to be insistent on suggesting...........


  • Registered Users Posts: 419 ✭✭mkdon


    Thankfully they copped the Jan 2006 = 100 and not the peak of the property market- that seems to have eluded the Irish media.
    I'm not buying their hypothesis though- its only one aspect of the market that they are looking at- and they are gilding over or totally ignoring other aspects.
    Time will tell- but the rosy picture they are painting- is not nearly as healthy as they seem to be insistent on suggesting...........

    not that rosy a pic pretty balanced with an emphasis on the uncertain road ahead and the fact we are a small economy susceptible to a crash


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    mkdon wrote: »
    Time will tell- but the rosy picture they are painting- is not nearly as healthy as they seem to be insistent on suggesting...........

    not that rosy a pic pretty balanced with an emphasis on the uncertain road ahead and the fact we are a small economy susceptible to a crash

    Very positive headline, not very positive article.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    20181215_EUC028.png

    I’m intrigued by the different ways in which rent prices and property prices have evolved (chart on the right).

    Rents are now 50% above the reference value and property prices are still 10-20% below.

    I guess part of the explanation is that back then, excessive lending was pushing up prices to the roof. But still that’s a major gap and I’m not sure this alone can explain it.


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    As well as first-time buyers in the boom there was a huge amount of trader uppers.....that's not happening now to anywhere near the extent it was.

    The central bank limits are keeping a lid on things nicely pricewise Imo compared to days gone by.

    Rents being high is simply supply and demand...... loads working.... immigration (the googles & facebooks employ loads of folk not from here) .... & of course air b&b has taken thousands of properties away from being let residentially


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭Arthur Daley


    Bob24 wrote: »
    I guess part of the explanation is that back then, excessive lending was pushing up prices to the roof. But still that’s a major gap and I’m not sure this alone can explain it.

    I think it's that you might/have to cobble together a few grand for the sky high monthly rent, it is temporarily achievable, albeit the rents are stretching the bounds of reality for a while now.

    But house prices of 300k on average hit a natural barrier with the deposit. It's not that government, and the various interests in the property industry don't want prices to go to the moon. It is just that even in the Irish property market there are some constraints, and if you can barely afford to live, you ain't raising 50 or 60k for a deposit. So that acts like a drag on house prices. It was the same in 2006/2007. What can't continue, won't continue. But it'll be the market putting a stop to it. Not some 'authority' or other.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    What are we saying then?
    1) that rents are temporarily high and need to crash to join property prices again at their 2006 ratio
    2) or that rents will stay at that level and need property price to start rising faster than rents over time so that the two meet again at the top rather than the bottom
    3) or simply that the 2006 ratio was abnormal and that today’s new ratio is fine as it is? (i.e. the much higher rent/property value ratio we have in 2018 is the new normal and the lower one we used to have in 2006 is to be forgotten about)

    Has to be one of those option (or a combination of them), but I honestly still can’t grasp a clear answer to that question.


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The 2006 ratio was all wrong to be fair.
    there used to be a rule of thumb that a property should generate 1/15th of it's market value in rental income per annum.

    €1500/month probably rents you a €250k property now but back in 2007 a €250k "investment" would have been rented out for under €1000.

    It should cost more to rent than to buy, we are in that situation now. It doesn't suit some folk but such is life. The fact that longterm renting in Ireland wasn't the done thing for many and that we (as a nation) aren't really set up for it is incredibly unfortunate but I reckon it'll take decades for enough housing to be built to allow folk the option to rent at reasonable cost or to purchase at reasonable cost.

    I can't see rental prices falling low enough to go near the 2006 ratio again. Buy to let folk were buying at prices back then that made zero sense, and folk borrowing to do so were off their tree financially but so many were doing so it became the norm. It was incredibly high risk investing in property that had a gross rental yield of under 5%, total lunacy really when the funding was a mortgage.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,092 ✭✭✭DubCount


    Bob24 wrote: »
    What are we saying then?
    1) that rents are temporarily high and need to crash to join property prices again at their 2006 ratio
    2) or that rents will stay at that level and need property price to start rising faster than rents over time so that the two meet again at the top rather than the bottom
    3) or simply that the 2006 ratio was abnormal and that today’s new ratio is fine as it is? (i.e. the much higher rent/property value ratio we have in 2018 is the new normal and the lower one we used to have in 2006 is to be forgotten about)

    Has to be one of those option (or a combination of them), but I honestly still can’t grasp a clear answer to that question.

    In my opinion, there is an option 4. I believe the ratio of rent to property prices has been altered by Government legislation that has changed the risk element of providing rental accommodation. I think this a structural change which means that (if legislation remains at current position) there is not a major correction coming to either the rental market or the property market.


  • Registered Users Posts: 210 ✭✭LotharIngum


    Thankfully they copped the Jan 2006 = 100 and not the peak of the property market- that seems to have eluded the Irish media.
    I'm not buying their hypothesis though- its only one aspect of the market that they are looking at- and they are gilding over or totally ignoring other aspects.
    Time will tell- but the rosy picture they are painting- is not nearly as healthy as they seem to be insistent on suggesting...........


    Not a very well researched article at all. How can you write an article like that without mentioning the effect rent controls is having on the rental market.
    You could bury your head in the sand about the damage caused by rent controls before, but you cant anymore.
    Imagine if someone had of advised the government of the effects of rent controls. oh wait ..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,723 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Imagine if someone had of advised the government of the effects of rent controls. oh wait ..

    Maybe they did take the advise and come to the conclusion that the policies implemented would drive up rent and property prices.

    This appears to be be the outcome of all government policy so perhaps this was the Governments objective all along.

    Homelessness is just collateral damage which they seem to be normalizing


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭Bubbaclaus


    It looks like there's goig to be over 30k planning permission approvals this calendar year. Apartment approvals up 200%. Heading step by step in the right direction.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,390 ✭✭✭UsBus


    Feels like there's a perfect storm gathering pace around the world. US stock market is starting to look like mush. There's hardly any sales going up on daft the last month, I know not much happens at Xmas but you would always see stuff the last few years. Could be a very interesting January with the Brexit mess and the negative sentiment growing and the US China row..

    Definitely a feeling of deja vu with markets recently..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,375 ✭✭✭bri007


    I thought that too up until this week when every house we were viewing and bidding on has risen over €30-50k over asking price so far blowing us out of the water.

    It was slow the last few month prior to this month but the last few weeks every house has gone up well ablive asking in the areas they couldn’t even get below asking since the summer?
    UsBus wrote: »
    Feels like there's a perfect storm gathering pace around the world. US stock market is starting to look like mush. There's hardly any sales going up on daft the last month, I know not much happens at Xmas but you would always see stuff the last few years. Could be a very interesting January with the Brexit mess and the negative sentiment growing and the US China row..

    Definitely a feeling of deja vu with markets recently..


  • Posts: 17,728 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    UsBus wrote: »

    Definitely a feeling of deja vu with markets recently..

    I'm a firm believer that you won't see a serious crash coming. If that's what your Deja Vu feeling is of.


  • Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    bri007 wrote: »
    every house we were viewing and bidding on has risen over €30-50k over asking price so far blowing us out of the water.

    What areas?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,042 ✭✭✭zl1whqvjs75cdy


    bri007 wrote: »
    I thought that too up until this week when every house we were viewing and bidding on has risen over €30-50k over asking price so far blowing us out of the water.

    It was slow the last few month prior to this month but the last few weeks every house has gone up well ablive asking in the areas they couldn’t even get below asking since the summer?

    Exemptions coming into play now for the first quarter of next year. If you sale agree now realistically it'll be well into Feb by the time you draw down. If you want one of the exemptions you'd want to be sale agreed by end of January latest I'd say. Housing market is unintentionally starting to resemble the new car market.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭gaius c


    Bob24 wrote: »
    CSO figures for October: https://cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexoctober2018/

    Looking at Dublin historical values since the recovery started for a bit of fun:
    - Oct 2018 107.9
    - Oct 2017 101.5
    - Oct 2016 91
    - Oct 2015 85.8
    - Oct 2014 84
    - Oct 2013 65.7
    - Oct 2012 58

    So in absolute value the 6.4 points increase since last year seems to be in the middle of the bunch - far less that the madness of 2013-2014, much more that the subsequent cool down of 2014-2015 and pretty close to most other years once you leave aside those 2 outliers.

    The index is reset every year so YOY comparisons are not really valid.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    gaius c wrote: »
    The index is reset every year so YOY comparisons are not really valid.

    Also Jan 2005 = 100. Peak = 134 in Feb 2007
    In a Dublin context- on average, we are now roughly 10% off our previous peak.
    Ironically- regional prices have recovered more strongly than have Dublin prices.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,905 ✭✭✭✭Bob24


    gaius c wrote: »
    The index is reset every year so YOY comparisons are not really valid.

    What do you mean reset every year? The CSO are publishing a chart showing the evolution of the index since 2005 so presumably it means that as far as they are concerned values for different years can be compared.

    Am I missing something?


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Bob24 wrote: »
    What do you mean reset every year? The CSO are publishing a chart showing the evolution of the index since 2005 so presumably it means that as far as they are concerned values for different years can be compared.

    Am I missing something?

    They also have a monthly and quarterly comparison with the previous year (which is dubious to say the least- however, its another stat that they publish.......)


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