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Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

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    #122
    Brianmeath
    Registered Users Posts: 259 ✭✭Brianmeath


    Gonzo wrote: »
    you stand a much greater chance than I would in south-east Meath which is really part of the Greater Dublin area. I've a feeling the snowline will be Mullingar to Kells and northwards, this will probably end up in us looking to see what falls out of the sky.
    If you think meath is part of the great dublin area all you deserve is rain.


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    #123
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Well, rain, sleet or wet snow, looks like there could be continuous prep for up to a 24 hr period between Saturday night and Sunday, so local flooding could be another added issue, given how saturated the ground is due to very poor drying conditions lately.

    New Moon



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    #124
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,710 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Brianmeath wrote: »
    If you think meath is part of the great dublin area all you deserve is rain.

    technically the Greater Dublin area goes well beyond Dunshaughlin!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Dublin_Area

    This is really off topic and more suited discussion on a different forum.


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    #125
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Hirlam 12z run. Snowline further south than both the Apegge and GFS.

    T6cFnIqBpG.gif


    My heart goes with HIRLAM, but my head sides with the GFS and Apegge.

    Edit, just realised that is the 06z run...

    New Moon



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    #126
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,710 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    Hirlam 12z run. Snowline further south than both the Apegge and GFS.

    T6cFnIqBpG.gif


    My heart goes with HIRLAM, but my head sides with the GFS and Apegge.

    that doesn't look too good for much of Dublin, Meath and Louth with mostly cold rain or sleet, the snow looks to be well inland.


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    #127
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Gonzo wrote: »
    that doesn't look too good for much of Dublin, Meath and Louth with mostly cold rain or sleet, the snow looks to be well inland.

    Estonian 12z is more encouraging for a wider region, but still more south than other main models, so much uncertainty yet.

    New Moon



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    #128
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,449 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Never under estimate the effect of an onshore wind. The difference between the east coast and inland is likely to be stark. Rainy v snowy. Be surprised to see any appreciable snow in Dublin.

    For the rest it's looking good.


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    #129
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,710 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Never under estimate the effect of an onshore wind. The difference between the east coast and inland is likely to be stark. Rainy v snowy. Be surprised to see any appreciable snow in Dublin.

    For the rest it's looking good.

    yep I'm not holding out much hope even for places up to 20km inland like Dunshaughlin. I reckon you need to be at least 30 or 35km inland from the east coast to be more sure. That east wind on Sunday could keep things far too marginal for much of the east coast.


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    #130
    RobertKK
    Registered Users Posts: 33,728 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    On radio 1, Met Eireann said the warning is likely to be updated over the weekend.


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    #131
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    RobertKK wrote: »
    On radio 1, Met Eireann said the warning is likely to be updated over the weekend.

    Yeah most likely to reduce the number of counties affected
    Counties bordering the Irish Sea are as Kermit alluded to going to see cold rain unless on very high ground as the circulation mixes in too much modifying warmer Irish Sea air


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    #132
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Yeah most likely to reduce the number of counties affected
    Counties bordering the Irish Sea are as Kermit alluded to going to see cold rain unless on very high ground as the circulation mixes in too much modifying warmer Irish Sea air

    The East Coast snow drought continues so :( A non-easterly snowy spell for the bulk of Leinster (away from high ground) really is rarer than hens teeth it seems.


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    #133
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Yeah most likely to reduce the number of counties affected
    Counties bordering the Irish Sea are as Kermit alluded to going to see cold rain unless on very high ground as the circulation mixes in too much modifying warmer Irish Sea air

    Downgrade?


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    #134
    grenouille1966
    Registered Users Posts: 146 ✭✭grenouille1966


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    MOD NOTE It would be helpful to all that when posting weather reports that locations are added in the post ( this can be kept general if preferred).


    Thanks




    As requested.

    Sunday will be an event for many Northern and North Western areas. With regards to other areas it's a delicate situation.

    To summarise:

    Rain will move in from the southwest on Saturday night but will meet embedded very cold air over the country. It will turn to snow as it moves northeastward. It's a classic "battle ground" scenario between different air masses.

    It will fall as snow initially over North Leinster (it will turn back to rain for a time). Over Ulster and most of Connaught it will fall as heavy snow throughout the event. Large accumulations in these parts. I would be of the opinion at least an orange warning is needed for these parts as of now - possibly red nearer the time.

    Later on Sunday as the system begins to unwind and move away it returns to snow over Leinster and turns to snow in Munster with accumulations here. Not as significant but could still be disruptive.

    As it clears it gets very cold and icy - another hazard in itself. Temperatures will plunge Sunday night well below freezing. Coldest night of the year so far.

    This looks a severe event in the north and northwest including northern Connaught right now.

    There is still the risk of significant snow further south as well. This is not 100% nailed in terms of where this will effect. Regardless many are going to see a significant snowfall.

    I think it is safe to say this will be the most significant frontal snow event the country has seen in many years for the areas effected.

    This is 48 hours out. There is no doubt it will be impactful.

    Another risk is flooding, a lot of water associated with this.

    I would advise people in the north and northwest - and Connaught - to keep up to date on forecasts and be prepared.

    This is an East, north affair. The west will have very have little snow. Same for munster. Temperatureswill be too high. Expect heavy snow in West Dublin with more sleety nature closer to the coast.


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    #135
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    grenouille1966 wrote: »
    This is an East, north affair. The west will have very have little snow. Same for munster. Temperatureswill be too high. Expect heavy snow in West Dublin with more sleety nature closer to the coast.
    Ur joking rite? It’s was a mid west event all day and now ur saying the opposite?


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    #136
    esposito
    Registered Users Posts: 1,343 ✭✭✭esposito


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Downgrade?

    Most likely for Dublin due to the bleedin Irish Sea influence.

    Cold rain is bloody awful.

    Why did ME include Dublin in the first place when they more than likely knew it would only be rain/sleet ?

    As much as I want continuous snow in Dublin I just can’t see it happening. Too many scars from years gone past.


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    #137
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    grenouille1966 wrote: »
    This is an East, north affair. The west will have very have little snow. Same for munster. Temperatureswill be too high. Expect heavy snow in West Dublin with more sleety nature closer to the coast.


    Gerry Murphy explicitly mentions all of Connaught at risk from snowfall on the 6.1 news,so I think you may be incorrect.Going by the Hirlam model,places like Mayo could get plastered from late saturday nite,There will be a cold land breeze blowing from the north east keeping temperatures hovering around 0 in Connaught throughout the day.


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    #138
    giveitholly
    Registered Users Posts: 5,543 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Any chance of a few more counties being added to the warnings


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    #139
    Neddyusa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    RobertKK wrote: »
    On radio 1, Met Eireann said the warning is likely to be updated over the weekend.

    To be honest - I'm actually less confident of widespread significant accumulations now, than I was before ME issued the warning.... 😜

    Given that in my 30 years observing snow forecasts, the only time ME forecast significant snowfall accurately, more than 24 hours out,
    was early Dec 2010.

    That's for my area of East Connacht, where we had many completely un-forecast snow events - two notable ones giving over 20cm - Dec 2001 and Feb 1997.

    If ME have called this one right at over 36 hrs out, I think It'd signify that Irish snow forecasting has really progressed from the nowcast! 😉


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    #140
    ascophyllum
    Registered Users Posts: 247 ✭✭ascophyllum


    Wind forecast to be NE all day Sunday so the Atlantic will have zero influence on places like West Mayo which usually lose out because of its influence, could be very interesting, places like North Connemara mountains where there'll be loads of precipitation could get plastered


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    #141
    Darwin
    Registered Users Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭Darwin


    For what it's worth, 12z ECMWF accumulated snow precipitation to Sunday 3pm:

    79Q07hK.png

    If on the money, all I can say is oh yes bring it on!


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    #142
    Mayo_Boy
    Registered Users Posts: 661 ✭✭✭Mayo_Boy


    Will the north of Mayo (Ballina area to be precise) see much/any snow?


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    #143
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    ascophyllum wrote: »
    Wind forecast to be NE all day Sunday so the Atlantic will have zero influence on places like West Mayo which usually lose out because of its influence, could be very interesting, places like North Connemara mountains where there'll be loads of precipitation could get plastered

    Yup,the north east breeze coming from a bitterly cold inland should bring snowfall further out to the coastline than normal, usually the only way we can get snow here in the coastal extremities of Mayo,hope it can pull it off,exciting stuff!!


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    #144
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Mayo_Boy wrote: »
    Will the north of Mayo see much/any snow?

    Yes north Mayo should see snow going by the latest charts, particularly the further inland you are.


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    #145
    fraxinus1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭fraxinus1


    As I said in the other thread I am expecting zilch snow on low levels from Sunday’s event. It will be a wet cold miserable affair. I’d be more concerned about flooding than significant snow.


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    #146
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    As I said in the other thread I am expecting zilch snow on low levels from Sunday’s event. It will be a wet cold miserable affair. I’d be more concerned about flooding than significant snow.

    A nice covering of snow in Moville on the six one News there now
    But Donegal does look outside of the Saturday Sunday precipitation band
    That would be a big reason not to expect snow


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    #147
    jimmynokia
    Registered Users Posts: 6,467 ✭✭✭jimmynokia


    When I see I will believe it..


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    #148
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Game ON! For the West Going by the forecast after 6 News,bring it on.


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    #149
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Darwin wrote: »
    For what it's worth, 12z ECMWF accumulated snow precipitation to Sunday 3pm:

    79Q07hK.png

    If on the money, all I can say is oh yes bring it on!

    I’d say it’s not
    Unless there are icebergs in the Irish Sea off wales for the snow to fall on :D


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    #150
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,106 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    I'd love if it sunk south by about 50km :)


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    #151
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Kildare, Laois and Carlow could be the sweet spots according to the current runs.

    Still at 48hrs out lots of change to come

    How are we doing with the direction this precipitation is coming at Kildare from Pad?

    Be a pity to watch Wicklow mountains soak it all up. Can't think off the top of my head but there's one or two directions down my end where the rain just never arrives - breaks up over Laois as it gets close.


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