Snow and Ice Warning : Saturday(PM)/Sunday 9th/10th December - SEE MOD NOTE POST #1

Gaoth Laidir

There has been heavy snow in southern Texas, and this sounding from Corpus Christi shows just what a heavy snow sounding should look like. A deep, just sub-zero, saturated layer right down to the ground. This maximises moisture content but keeps it all frozen. This is a classic example.



Below is a WRF forecast sounding for somewhere in northern Galway at midnight tonight. While not as good as Corpus Christi, it shows a heavy snow profile, as the saturated layer extends well above 700 hPa but remains just at or below 0 °C. Probably huge flakes from this setup and a liquid ratio of about 5:1.



I haven't looked at other locations yet but forecast soundings are the best tool in situations like this. Conventional upper charts don't show enough detail.

squarecircles

Wondering has this the capability to affect power supply in the West? What with subzero temperatures and heavy snowfall.

LowOdour

Larbre34 wrote: »

The Wicklow back roads will be the least of your problems. Go this evening or go Tuesday. Literally.

Think that has to be the plan.

Wonder would I be ok leaving around 4pm? It's about 3 hours to Galway

squarecircles

Gerry Murphy was seen slipping out the back door of Met Eireann late yesterday evening wearing dark sunglasses.

twinkletoes

Where does the rain end and snow start 2moro? Or is that THE question? In north kilkenny here..on high ground.

JanuarySnowstor

A red warning will be issued around lunchtime I'd say for favoured midland areas. It's a nightmare for a forecaster but somewhere is going to get pasted.
Have we ever had a red for snow before?

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

A red warning will be issued around lunchtime I'd say for favoured midland areas. It's a nightmare for a forecaster but somewhere is going to get pasted.
Have we ever had a red for snow before?

How are we looking in Cork JS?! Met eireann gave Munster a snow chance today

force eleven

http://www.irishidentity.com/extras/weather/stories/bigsnow.htm. Just a memory from 1933, I doubt it will be as dramatic as this letter from Meath I think. Just a mood setter. :-)

leahyl

So basically everywhere except Munster looks to have a chance of snow?! Typical! :-(

Pangea

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Heavy rain shower just now near Roosnowlagh, Donegal. No frost last night. I’m 5 miles inland. As for this event tonight and tomorrow; the models are showing the precipitation stalling well south of Donegal. We might get a bit of frost tonight.

I hope it goes further north.
Although I have been getting Hail here so even if it does reach me I'm not expecting dry fluffy snow

Mantis Toboggan

Yr giving no chance of snow today for Dublin and just heavy rain from tonight on. I presume that's fairly accurate?

Sammy2012

I think I already know the answer but just said I'd ask just in case. Planning on leaving home in the morning at 7am to drive to kildare village shopping centre. Home is about 1mile from the wicklow boarder on north wexford just at the very end of the wicklow mountains. Would have to go to shilleagh and tullow and on to the m9. Probably best of forget about it is It?!

B1gft

As someone asked here all ready, how long should/could the snow stay on the ground around Offaly Laois.

vizualpics

Tyson Fury wrote: »

Yr giving no chance of snow today for Dublin and just heavy rain from tonight on. I presume that's fairly accurate?

No I wouldnt think its accurate, checked the likes of Castlebar, Longord and Cavan on it and it says sleet for all locations. Stick to what Met and the experienced guys are saying on here and you cant go to far wrong.

ninebeanrows

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

A red warning will be issued around lunchtime I'd say for favoured midland areas. It's a nightmare for a forecaster but somewhere is going to get pasted.
Have we ever had a red for snow before?

The criteria warrant it indeed. It being a Sunday etc- impact wise there probably is no need. That is why in the near future the criteria for warnings will change.

Tzardine

Sammy2012 wrote: »

I think I already know the answer but just said I'd ask just in case. Planning on leaving home in the morning at 7am to drive to kildare village shopping centre. Home is about 1mile from the wicklow boarder on north wexford just at the very end of the wicklow mountains. Would have to go to shilleagh and tullow and on to the m9. Probably best of forget about it is It?!

Kildare village will still be there next week. Why run the risk.

ninebeanrows

EURO4 is very far south with precip....

Maybe somebody already posted this so apologies in advance.

ZX7R

Weathercheck wrote: »

The criteria warrant it indeed. It being a Sunday etc- impact wise there probably is no need. That is why in the near future the criteria for warnings will change.

I think that a red weather warning will be issued in places, as there will be a lot of travelling due to Christmas shopping, visiting the big man in red etc. Where I work has had in excess of 200 phone calls since yesterday asking will we be open tomorrow

fraxinus1

I’m for Monaghan Town this evening and intend to be back in Donegal later tonight or very early Sunday morning ( 2am). I am not cancelling a journey because high ground may get some snow. I will happily update the thread about the conditions that I experience on my home

Rock Lesnar

Just seen the bbc forecast and as i taught, its looking like rain for my part of county meath, not bothered either way, it'll still be very cold and with liverpool on tele, it's a day for a roaring fire

ninebeanrows

fraxinus1 wrote: »

I’m for Monaghan Town this evening and intend to be back in Donegal later tonight or very early Sunday morning ( 2am). I am not cancelling a journey because high ground may get some snow. I will happily update the thread about the conditions that I experience on my home

We all look forward to the reports of heavy cold rain:pac:

Reckless Abandonment

EURO4 showing it more South and moving away faster. No snow for Dublin on it. Midlands look the place to be . Exciting day for some.

Oops69

Kildare village will still be there next week. Why run the risk.[/quote]
Hopefully it won’t be and my credit card can get a rest from someone

fraxinus1

Weathercheck wrote: »

We all look forward to the reports of heavy cold rain:pac:

That’s exactly what I will be reporting.

Rebelbrowser

I have to say I dont understand this event? With uppers relatively high and no deep cold pool in place over the country, why is it so certain to snow ( in places)? Thought I was beginning to understand this all........ Sorry if this seems a stupid question.

Romantic Rose

I'm glad that Donegal seems to be escaping this. Why can't it snow Friday evening and have melted by Sunday night ready for the commute again.

I think I've seen my fair share of snow and ice over the years that I've had my fill for now.

munsterlegend

fraxinus1 wrote: »

That’s exactly what I will be reporting.

And of course Donegal county council manoeuvres.

grenouille1966

In comparison to 2010 when Dublin and the East coast got hammered for weeks by heavy snowfall and polar winds, this is going a bit far I think.

I think this will basically be a major event for high ground in the Midlands and East of the ciuntry

Slashermcguirk

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Just seen the bbc forecast and as i taught, its looking like rain for my part of county meath, not bothered either way, it'll still be very cold and with liverpool on tele, it's a day for a roaring fire

I would stick closer to Irish forecasts, BBC focus is on the UK.

sjb25

fraxinus1 wrote: »

I’m for Monaghan Town this evening and intend to be back in Donegal later tonight or very early Sunday morning ( 2am). I am not cancelling a journey because high ground may get some snow. I will happily update the thread about the conditions that I experience on my home

.

fraxinus1

munsterlegend wrote: »

And of course Donegal county council manoeuvres.

My neighbor is well up in the council so yes I do get to hear what’s going on.

Iancar29

Heres more skew t charts. Very much borderline temps
Wicklow 3am

Atlone 3am

Mooooo

grenouille1966 wrote: »

In comparison to 2010 when Dublin and the East coast got hammered for weeks by heavy snowfall and polar winds, this is going a bit far I think.

I think this will basically be a major event for high ground in the Midlands and East of the ciuntry

2010 effected the whole country in cork here west of the city 3 weeks of bollixing trying to work in it, one morning the milk in the bulk tank was reading 2 degrees a whole 16 degrees warmer the the outside air temp

JanuarySnowstor

06z run further south again. Munst er looks more at risk now than anywhere else

gimpotronitus

So a few hours out and no-one, professional/amateur, can tell us if its going to snow in the major population centre of the country?

Forecasting = pseudo-science

Gaoth Laidir

If the precip does shift further south then the snow potential drops with the shallower cold layer. It's on a knife edge now between full-blown heavy snow and full-blown cold rain. This just translates to a lowering or raising of the snowline, but anyone above 100 metres through the centre of the country should be keeping an eye out.

munsterlegend

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

If the precip does shift further south then the snow potential drops with the shallower cold layer. It's on a knife edge now between full-blown heavy snow and full-blown cold rain. This just translates to a lowering or raising of the snowline, but anyone above 100 metres through the centre of the country should be keeping an eye out.

So no matter what happens Munster won't get snow except on high ground! Typical!!

pauldry

Yeah i think met eireann will downgrade their forecast to

Outbreaks of rain sleet and snow with up to 8cm especially on high ground though some accumulations at lower levels too

Gaoth Laidir

munsterlegend wrote: »

So no matter what happens Munster won't get snow except on high ground! Typical!!

Today's 12Z Valentia and Castor Bay soundings will be important to see what kind of depth of cold layer we have in place. It would be great to have a weather balloon launch from somewhere like Athlone too..

Rock Lesnar

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

I would stick closer to Irish forecasts, BBC focus is on the UK.

Well i find the bbc very reliable, their rainfall charts cover both countries, not a knock on ME, i have no problem with their forecasts, but experience tells me i'll stick to what the bbc predicts.

RobertKK

twinkletoes wrote: »

Where does the rain end and snow start 2moro? Or is that THE question? In north kilkenny here..on high ground.

Same as myself.

We will get a lot of snow on the high ground of north Kilkenny.

Yr.no for my location predicting 34.7mm and for it to be snow.

Slashermcguirk

Met eureann website updated 30 minutes ago and they are giving large accumulations of snow for Connaught, midlands and most of Leinster with temps tonight of -1 to -5, coldest in the east.

Hope they are right but we know they can be very hit and miss

KingdomRushed

I hate to say it but I’m also leaning toward the doom and gloom that widespread snowfall now likely to be limited. Too messy. Only HIRLAM holding on for big disruptive event in my opinion.

Larbre34

gimpotronitus wrote: »

So a few hours out and no-one, professional/amateur, can tell us if its going to snow in the major population centre of the country?

Forecasting = pseudo-science

Ignorant comment. Its churlish not to recognise Ireland is marginal for all snow potential. We have a maritime climate not a continental one

Met Éireann and the educated amateurs here are rightly pointing out the high liklihood of heavy snow and where it will potentially fall, but it is on a knife edge, so if it rains across lower levels, or the precip doesnt make it as far north, big deal, precautions been taken.

squarecircles

I wonder When will met eireann downgrade their forecast ...shame it has all gone down the tubes so quickly.

Gerry Murphy peeks out of broom closet.*

pauldry

https://youtu.be/_QNYj61wMRI

munsterlegend

squarecircles wrote: »

I wonder When will met eireann downgrade their forecast ...shame it has all gone down the tubes so quickly.

A bit over the top?!!! it's a nowcast from
here on in.

RobertKK

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Was always jealous of you folk as a kid. Still am

lol yeah days off school due to snow and ice...

In March 2010. We had that blizzard, it was really bad. Snow blowing everywhere and to around 3ft in places and ye only got cold rain on the city...that would be very disappointing.

Billcarson

squarecircles wrote: »

I wonder When will met eireann downgrade their forecast ...shame it has all gone down the tubes so quickly.

???? Gone down the tubes?? No one can say what will happen it's going to be a nowcast job anyway.

pistolpetes11

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

If the precip does shift further south then the snow potential drops with the shallower cold layer. It's on a knife edge now between full-blown heavy snow and full-blown cold rain. This just translates to a lowering or raising of the snowline, but anyone above 100 metres through the centre of the country should be keeping an eye out.

Typical here in Newbridge I’m at 92 asl !!! Although I’m just at the back of the Curragh which seems to be a real cold haven , a fair whack of yesterday’s snow hung on and is all frosted over this morning