Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

realdanbreen · 14-12-2018 11:46pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Most of the guidance would suggest that the really strong winds develop off the south coast and swing around towards south Wales, so I tend to think this will be more about rain than wind for Ireland, however, if there's any slight change to the details then these very strong winds could sweep into southeast Ireland tomorrow afternoon. It's the elongation of the low pressure that might spare Ireland from seeing the very strong gusts, but if that elongation is replaced by a more circular low during the final phases, then I would change this analysis towards 120 km/hr gusts hitting Wexford at least, possibly further west and north.

As to rainfall, this will be a moisture laden system capable of dropping 30 to 50 mm of rain on top of recent substantial falls, would have to imagine that some watersheds are reaching saturation and won't be able to deal with this additional load without flooding. Certainly some temporary roadway flooding is likely starting late tonight and continuing to come and go with pulses of heavier rain tomorrow (a track from Kerry and west Cork northeast into east Ulster looks like getting the heaviest amounts).

I know there has been a fair bit of rain recently but just wondering MT after the exceptionally dry summer and from what I thought was a fairly dry autumn is it possible that the water tables are low enough to handle this deluge and avoid flooding?

Meteorite58 · 14-12-2018 11:46pm

Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland
A developing depression (Storm Deirdre) will track northeast over Ireland during Saturday afternoon and evening and will bring wet and windy weather to all areas.
West or northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 65km/h with gusts of 100km/h generally, with disruptive and damaging gusts to 130km/h likely for a few hours in western and southern counties in the late afternoon and transferring eastwards during the evening.

Issued: Friday 14 December 2018 22:00

Updated: Friday 14 December 2018 22:00

Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 15:00 to Saturday 15 December 2018 23:59

downwiththatsor · 14-12-2018 11:49pm

Been a very wet November and December so far, bad flooding in parts of Kerry this last week already and wetter than a mean year in Valentia even with a summer drought so spot flooding likely I would think as a minimum.
http://mobile.met.ie/climate/monthly-data.asp?Num=2275

squarecircles · 14-12-2018 11:51pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland
A developing depression (Storm Deirdre) will track northeast over Ireland during Saturday afternoon and evening and will bring wet and windy weather to all areas.
West or northwest winds will reach mean speeds of 65km/h with gusts of 100km/h generally, with disruptive and damaging gusts to 130km/h likely for a few hours in western and southern counties in the late afternoon and transferring eastwards during the evening.

Issued: Friday 14 December 2018 22:00

Updated: Friday 14 December 2018 22:00

Valid from Saturday 15 December 2018 15:00 to Saturday 15 December 2018 23:59

thats a beautiful shade of orange.

alentejo · 14-12-2018 11:51pm

Please can we have some settled weather. I have stuff to do . Tomorrow is a write off

Oscar Bravo · 14-12-2018 11:51pm

2243 Met Eireann Update

TOMORROW - Saturday 15th December
Widespread rain on Saturday and becoming very windy, as storm Deirdre tracks across Ireland during the afternoon, bringing some disruptive and damaging gusts to western and southern counties for a few hours in the late afternoon and these severe winds transferring eastwards during the evening. Widespread rain also, heavy and possibly thundery at times with localised flooding. Maximum afternoon temperatures of 7 to 11 degrees Celsius but turning much colder by evening in the west and south.

giveitholly · 14-12-2018 11:52pm

Met Éireann seemed to have this flagged from early on in the week even though some on here said it would only be a bit of wind and rain

Oscar Bravo · 14-12-2018 11:56pm

giveitholly wrote: »

Met Éireann seemed to have this flagged from early on in the week even though some on here said it would only be a bit of wind and rain

Yep, some did. well done to Met Eireann once again for flagging this one earlier this week.

Grandeeod · 14-12-2018 11:57pm

I don't do drama and work outdoors at all times of the year so the weather forecast is very important to me and those I work with. Luckily when its bad my outdoor work is cancelled. Considering the time of year and peoples plans to be out and about, I really hope folks take notice of this. A busy shopping day plus more, but a really nasty bit of weather coming in.

LRNM · 15-12-2018 12:04am

This is going to catch a lot of people by surprise.
I think a lot of our crews on the ground aren't even fully aware what to expect tomorrow.
Some seem to think it's just going to be another rainy day.

I predict chaos with christmas shoppers and parties.

irishrover99 · 15-12-2018 12:05am

giveitholly wrote: »

Met Éireann seemed to have this flagged from early on in the week even though some on here said it would only be a bit of wind and rain

Oh will you give it a rest.
Just because that person didnt want a storm doesn’t mean he’s not entitled to his opinion on this forum.
He was looking at charts and gave his reading of what he expected.
Is seems unless you want bad weather you are not allowed to go against the popular option hereðŸ™„

Mod Note : Let's keep it civil and on topic please.

Oscar Bravo · 15-12-2018 12:15am

The 11pm TAF's are out. Nasty day ahead, especially into the evening time regarding wind

Cork airport going for max gusts up to 55 knots between 3pm-5pm

Shannon max gusts 50 knots

Knock 45 knots

Dublin 56 knots (between 5pm -7pm)

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 12:23am

Mod Note: Off topic posts deleted, adhere to the forum charter.

Keep it civil.

Oscar Bravo · 15-12-2018 12:23am

Knock TAF, all change again, forecast upgrading all the time

TAF COR EIKN 142304Z 1500/1524 15018G28KT 3000 -RADZ OVC002
BECMG 1501/1503 12020G30KT
TEMPO 1502/1515 0200 RADZ FG BKN001 OVC002
BECMG 1503/1506 12015KT
BECMG 1506/1509 12020G30KT
BECMG 1509/1512 15022G34KT
BECMG 1515/1517 29030G50KT 9999 BKN012
TEMPO 1515/1518 4000 RA BKN007
BECMG 1519/1521 26022G35KT BKN020
BECMG 1521/1524 24015G25KT

stephenjmcd · 15-12-2018 12:25am

Seems to be a very sudden upgrade from met.
I'm in the east myself looking like after dark tomorrow evening we could take a battering

kod87 · 15-12-2018 12:33am

yay, more rain, I cannot contain my enthusiasm for our diverse Irish weather.

martyfurey · 15-12-2018 12:37am

Well the water table in our area of westmeath is just back above ground level in the last couple of weeks. We had streams that had been dry since July getting there first flow in months. Sure you can't beat a bit of rain.

SleetAndSnow · 15-12-2018 12:39am

martyfurey wrote: »

Well the water table in our area of westmeath is just back above ground level in the last couple of weeks. We had streams that had been dry since July getting there first flow in months. Sure you can't beat a bit of rain.

Nature really does have its ways of balancing things eh? Fascinating really when you think about it

km79 · 15-12-2018 12:44am

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Nature really does have its ways of balancing things eh? Fascinating really when you think about it

I seem to recall someone saying just that when people were wishing away the "unseasonable" heat and sunshine during the SUMMER......hope everyone's lawn is well watered

hawkwing · 15-12-2018 12:53am

Siobhán just said "copious" in relation to tomorrow's rain,didn't hear her say that word since the famous early March forecast:o

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 12:55am

Latest HIRLAM 18Z rainfall predictions. Widespread 30mm+

mickger844posts · 15-12-2018 1:03am

hawkwing wrote: »

Siobhán just said "copious" in relation to tomorrow's rain,didn't hear her say that word since the famous early March forecast:o

Yes she doesn’t say it lightly but would much rather if it was snow she was talking about rather than rain. Excellent update from Siobhan though. Kept it on point with the hazards we can expect tomorrow.

km79 · 15-12-2018 1:04am

Tomorrow’s trip to Santa in Bunratty is looking excellent

giveitholly · 15-12-2018 1:06am

km79 wrote: »

Tomorrow’s trip to Santa in Bunratty is looking excellent

Is santa outdoors in bunratty?

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 1:09am

ICON 21Z showing strong winds having a further reach inland on this run. To me looks like another upgrade on the previous run. ICON in my experience are good on predicting track close to the event, known to overdo the wind speeds a tad.

Quick moving but looking like high end orange warning along the S, SE and E later for a time. Going to be some squalls in that , possible thunder also.

Larbre34 · 15-12-2018 1:18am

45,000 tickets sold for the rugby in the Aviva at 17.30 tomorrow. As that coincides with the forecast peak period for Dublin, there has to be a risk of it being called off for public safety reasons.

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 1:19am

Going by this , high end Orange possibly getting up to 130km/h ....at least ?

The rate at which this is upgrading would lead me to think that some very severe damaging winds are to be expected tomorrow made all the worse by the driving heavy rain.

Vinculus · 15-12-2018 1:19am

Looks like we're going to get some serious weather action tomorrow, here in Galicia . It will make a nice change from the boring good weather we normally get. We've had very hot summer's the few years, so we really good do with the extra water.

pauldry · 15-12-2018 1:34am

Winds already gusting 51 knots Malin

A few heavy pulses of rain in South but not much yet

10mm so far in wettest spots

Id imagine tomorrow
Sherkin/Valentia 55mm
Cork 50mm
Roches 50mm
Johnston Castle 40mm
Shannon/Newport 35mm
Mace 32mm
Sligo 30mm
Dublin 25mm
Malin 25mm

Drumpot · 15-12-2018 1:40am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ICON 21Z showing strong winds having a further reach inland on this run. To me looks like another upgrade on the previous run. ICON in my experience are good on predicting track close to the event, known to overdo the wind speeds a tad.

Quick moving but looking like high end orange warning along the S, SE and E later for a time. Going to be some squalls in that , possible thunder also.

That suggests that the east coast (Bettystown right on coast here) will be windy all day with a nasty blast late afternoon to evening?

I know somebody working in Collon outdoors with kids on horses. Might give them a warning as they aren’t aware it’s gonna be so windy.

xii · 15-12-2018 1:40am

giveitholly wrote: »

Is santa outdoors in bunratty?

No he is inside, unfortunately you will be walking around the folk park though until it's time,dress accordingly.

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 1:41am

Tightest gradient getting in over land on this run from ICON.

EDIT: I should say near the tightest gradient getting in over land.

Meteorite58 · 15-12-2018 1:44am

Drumpot wrote: »

That suggests that the east coast (Bettystown right on coast here) will be windy all day with a nasty blast late afternoon to evening?

I know somebody working in Collon outdoors with kids on horses. Might give them a warning as they aren’t aware it’s gonna be so windy.

Looking that way all right.

joeysoap · 15-12-2018 1:48am

Very windy now in dundalk

Mount Vesuvius · 15-12-2018 1:55am

Latest Fax is out for tomorrow.
Looking fairly nasty.

prinzeugen · 15-12-2018 2:03am

Larbre34 wrote: »

45,000 tickets sold for the rugby in the Aviva at 17.30 tomorrow. As that coincides with the forecast peak period for Dublin, there has to be a risk of it being called off for public safety reasons.

Highly unlikely. Red warning yes. We have had worse. The main issue down there is rainfall and potential flooding.

Kutebride · 15-12-2018 2:05am

190 comments on IWO FB Page ðŸ˜œðŸ™ˆ
All calm Meath a ce moment

jimbobaloobob · 15-12-2018 3:13am

Winds picking up a bit here and raining hard at moment. South West Conamara.
I can hear a search helicopter on the bay also, hope all is ok.

gozunda · 15-12-2018 3:49am

UKs weather warnings for today interesting to compare

Storm name not on UK system yet

ZX7R · 15-12-2018 3:55am

gozunda wrote: »

UKs weather warnings for today interesting to compare

i didnt realise it was so cold across the sea,
blizzard conditions in places:cool:

gozunda · 15-12-2018 4:06am

ZX7R wrote: »

i didnt realise it was so cold across the sea,
blizzard conditions in places:cool:

So they are saying ...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-46574942

Graces7 · 15-12-2018 6:11am

OK;

Woken by solid, heavy rain with not a breath of wind. Just the heavens are all one to liquid and spilling it out.

The stillness is eerie.

Was not surprised to see the warnings when I came on; the marine warning earlier was a clear indication.

All set here anyways. Fuel in, candles and matches ready in case the power goes......Westnet so far have done a wonderful job. ( small local server). The dish is on a gable end, facing north and never a worry.

Please, folk, take care out there. Please.

West Mayo. offshore island

ZX7R · 15-12-2018 6:46am

Graces7 wrote: »

OK;

Woken by solid, heavy rain with not a breath of wind. Just the heavens are all one to liquid and spilling it out.

The stillness is eerie.

Was not surprised to see the warnings when I came on; the marine warning earlier was a clear indication.

All set here anyways. Fuel in, candles and matches ready in case the power goes......Westnet so far have done a wonderful job. ( small local server). The dish is on a gable end, facing north and never a worry.

Please, folk, take care out there. Please.

West Mayo. offshore island

graces7 give a post when the wind starts up please

Oscar Bravo · 15-12-2018 6:50am

5am TAF for Dublin Airport forecasting gusts up to 60 knots between 6pm and 8pm!

DOCARCH · 15-12-2018 7:03am

Wind howling in Dublin 16 all night! Very gusty.

Graces7 · 15-12-2018 7:08am

ZX7R wrote: »

graces7 give a post when the wind starts up please

OK! staying online until and unless the power goes. still deluging and quiet.

nthclare · 15-12-2018 7:10am

Very quite in Co Clare

ZX7R · 15-12-2018 7:17am

Graces7 wrote: »

OK! staying online until and unless the power goes. still deluging and quiet.

thank you
intrested seeing how quick its starts and moves across the country

DOCARCH · 15-12-2018 7:18am

nthclare wrote: »

Very quite in Co Clare

Just bear in mind that Storm Deirdre will not arrive until later. Orange warning comes into effect at 3pm.

DOCARCH · 15-12-2018 7:21am

DunLaoghaire currently reporting gust of 59kts, and Dublin Bay Buoy reporting wave height of 5.8m (....that's very high for Dublin Bay!).

Storm Deirdre - Saturday 15 December 2018

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