The Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2011/2012

Sponge Bob · 06-01-2012 7:38pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Im afraid bob as I have said in the title of the post these were taken from netweather ,

You can get originals if you follow this link as an EG.

See. ( EG) http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2012010612&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=324

Then refresh ( press f5) and an imageshack links shows below it. Very neat that instantweathermap site.

More direct possibilities for you Here and Here(colour) if you play with parameters. But you gotta press F5 to get that imageshack link sometimes.

HTH

Nabber · 07-01-2012 12:49am

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

With that in mind, the warming event over Christmas was centered in the Pacific sector.

Would that be this warming? It's quite sudden

Is the strat warming in the Pacific forcing the Polar vortex over towards the Atlantic?

BLIZZARD7 · 07-01-2012 2:36pm

Excellent stratosphere forecasts today- Mean Zonal winds are forecast to completely reverse at the 1hpa level, down to -35m/s! What we need is for this to propagate down to the 10hpa and 30hpa levels.

The chart showing the projected temp profile over the pole is just epic-

The warming at the 10Hpa level goes off the scale! But again we need this to propagate to the 30hpa level-Which it is forecast to do.

Dan :cool:

Kippure · 07-01-2012 4:14pm

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/71340-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20112012/page__view__findpost__p__2205928

GP from netweather this morning.:)

pistolpetes11 · 07-01-2012 7:33pm

Now looking at this 10 hPa temperature chart I record the warming maximum to be +18ºC

index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=126673

index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=126673

Just a whopping 88ºC higher than the normal seen at this time in winter!

aboyro · 07-01-2012 7:43pm

Nabber wrote: »

Would that be this warming? It's quite sudden

Is the strat warming in the Pacific forcing the Polar vortex over towards the Atlantic?

OMG, thats pretty impressive, now if you said it was the result of nuclear actitivy off the coast of japan, i'd have believed that too:eek:

Sponge Bob · 07-01-2012 7:52pm

Ah wait

Read the small print. The Strat Graphic comes from here

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml

Each frame is an eleven-day mean, centered on the date indicated in the title, of 10-hPa temperature and anomalies from the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation System (CDAS). Contour interval for temperatures is 4°C, anomalies are indicated by shading. Anomalies are departures from the 1979-95 daily base period means.

Not that sudden, it could even have been warmer before the 'redburst' except that the upper atmosphere is normally that warm on that particular day and therefore shows as blue!

Redsunset · 07-01-2012 8:24pm

Have to say Im simply loving the Strat forecasts today,could we be seeing a reverse of last year?
Like previous years keep an eye on any Strat Alerts from Tokyo and there will be soon.
http://hirweb.nict.go.jp/cgi-bin/tserdin/AandF

Upper winds showing immense reversal potential at 10 days out

This is a really good looking site showing warmings in animation using ECM if you haven't seen it already.
http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/index.html

The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is really getting into gear now and is intensifying. As of Dec it was -16.25, Link
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

As I have said before , Major winter stratospheric warmings preferentially occur during the easterly phase of the QBO.
This is shown by Holton and Tan (1980)

I showed before in the winter thread that in similar conditions with a weak central based La Nina the previous autumn, the results WITH a Strat warming ended up with this type of outcome.
1985 is a big influence here

Sponge Bob · 07-01-2012 8:52pm

redsunset wrote: »

The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) is really getting into gear now and is intensifying. As of Dec it was -16.25, Link
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

All right, we are up to AO and NAO around here and now we get this QBO added to the mix.

Can you explain what it is in some more detail please??

pistolpetes11 · 07-01-2012 8:59pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

All right, we are up to AO and NAO around here and now we get this QBO added to the mix.

Can you explain what it is in some more detail please??

Google is our Friend

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a quasi-periodic oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies in the tropical stratosphere with a mean period of 28 to 29 months. The alternating wind regimes develop at the top of the lower stratosphere and propagate downwards at about 1 km (0.6 mi) per month until they are dissipated at the tropical tropopause. Downward motion of the easterlies is usually more irregular than that of the westerlies. The amplitude of the easterly phase is about twice as strong as that of the westerly phase. At the top of the vertical QBO domain, easterlies dominate, while at the bottom, westerlies are more likely to be found

pistolpetes11 · 07-01-2012 9:03pm

redsunset wrote: »

Have to say Im simply loving the Strat forecasts today,could we be seeing a reverse of last year?
Like previous years keep an eye on any Strat Alerts from Tokyo and there will be soon.
http://hirweb.nict.go.jp/cgi-bin/tserdin/AandF

Upper winds showing immense reversal potential at 10 days out

How do i read the upper winds charts ?

Redsunset · 07-01-2012 9:14pm

You can see in the upper strat between 1hpa and 10hpa the strong easterly winds(Blue) like what is forecast in other similar type images.
We want these winds to reach down lower to have a hugh influence on the weather, fingers crossed

Redsunset · 07-01-2012 9:20pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

All right, we are up to AO and NAO around here and now we get this QBO added to the mix.

Can you explain what it is in some more detail please??

Try this for size,

http://books.google.ie/books?id=PvJyVtw53Y4C&pg=PA126&lpg=PA126&dq=negative+qbo+%22la+nina%22&source=bl&ots=IXrxKtAJMr&sig=M6S6IFBm1XXcO7G3eIzdt8iWdbA&hl=en&ei=IEyOTt7-GOPY0QH6uIUQ&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&sqi=2&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=negative%20qbo%20%22la%20nina%22&f=false

This is where i get all the previous Strat Warming conditions info since 1952
http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/SPARC/News15/15_Labitzke.html
Updated version
http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

Stratospheric Connection to Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Weather:
Implications for Prediction
http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/ao/ThompsonPapers/ThompsonBaldwinWallace.pdf

Redsunset · 07-01-2012 9:47pm

Actually here is a 187 page book if you like reading.
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/51128098/Influence-of-the-quasi-biennial-oscillation-on-interannual-variability

Sponge Bob · 07-01-2012 11:54pm

redsunset wrote: »

Stratospheric Connection to Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Weather:
Implications for Prediction
http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/ao/ThompsonPapers/ThompsonBaldwinWallace.pdf

That explains it quite well.

maquiladora · 08-01-2012 1:49am

Should be interesting to see what appears in the morning.

Capillatus · 08-01-2012 9:19pm

It is really interesting (and understandable at the same time) to watch how ECMWF goes back and forth with the 9-10 day forecast.

From the huge zonal reversal (01.06 run) in the upper stratosphere, the new run (01.07 run) went down to only moderate reversal, now even higher. i wont talk too much, since in a couple of hours, we will see a new forecast.

Changes like this are normal, but I cant really recall such a difference.

6034073

And as it was pointed out many times before, QBO is well in the eastern phase, and so supportive for a SSW.

On a side note:
I have just noticed that WPO and EPO are forecasted to turn negative, with the Alaska High forecasted by ECMWF, which could mean cold for large part of US. And it looks like AO is finally going into negative, so as I understand this ECMWF projection, the 500mb PV kinda breaks/weakens, and the main part moves over Greenland and N Canada. With the Alaska High, this could bring come cold into the US. What EC also projects on the 216h and 240h, is a strong ridge over W Europe, and changing the circulation in meridional mode for much of Europe. But we all know how "reliable" are the deterministic models so far out.

Image source: http://policlimate.com/weather/ecmwf/ec_nh_z500.html

The CFS 1+2 week ensembles tell a similar story.

All of this is "IMHO".

Best regards.

blackius · 08-01-2012 10:42pm

@RyanMaue Ryan Maue
GFS extended range Arctic Oscillation phase goes to negative 5 or 6, drops off chart. http://policlimate.com/climate/gfs_ext_ao_bias.htmlhttp://policlimate.com/climate/gfs_ext_ao_bias.htmlhttp://policlimate.com/climate/gfs_ext_ao_bias.html

Davaeo09 · 09-01-2012 12:43pm

Hi folks can some one answer a question for me?
It seemed over the weekend and end of last week as if we would be seeing some substantial cold from mid January.. For a while even?
What do the latest models show? Is the cold confirmed or has it vanished for now?

Sorry I know these type of posts must drive you guys up the wall.

Iancar29 · 09-01-2012 12:48pm

Davaeo09 wrote: »

Hi folks can some one answer a question for me?
It seemed over the weekend and end of last week as if we would be seeing some substantial cold from mid January.. For a while even?
What do the latest models show? Is the cold confirmed or has it vanished for now?

Sorry I know these type of posts must drive you guys up the wall.

MOdels are showing the stepping stones for cold yes. But still nothing severe as of yet as models are still getting "attacked" by westerly flow when we need an easterly.

This thread for Strat. warming is a good indication into knowing a pattern change is on its way. OF which there is. SO ye... we are left to hope! :rolleyes:

Davaeo09 · 09-01-2012 3:11pm

Cheers Ian, I am a complete novice when it comes to reading these models so I've been doing my best to keep up with what's going on here but some time's it not easy.

Back to praying for snow!

Last question, how long could it take for an easterly to kick in?

Is it some thing that might not show up in these models and surprise us all or will there be an early indication? :pac:

pistolpetes11 · 10-01-2012 1:17pm

The important bit here is not necessarily the warming, but how it affects the polar vortex. So far we see a reversal of the mean zonal winds forecast for the top of the stratosphere ( 1hPa) followed by a quick return of the reforming vortex. Lower down we do not even see a displacement enough to reverse the mean zonal winds in the mid stratosphere. The warmer stratosphere will affect the troposphere but this will not be as pronounced as a mid level propagation and full reversal and disintergration of the vortex would create.

Things could change but so far it does look like the unfavourable E-P flux could be an inhibiting factor some what.

For those still looking for wholesale tropospheric changes and instant high latitude blocking should hold out a little longer.

Redsunset · 11-01-2012 12:27am

Right just where the hell are we at the moment, in how the minor Strat Warming is progressing toward influencing this chaotic layer at the bottom of the atmosphere, where we just so happen to reside.

Well below we can see that the very cold Strat conditions earlier are still having an influence, however as you can see, "The End Is Nigh"

Wipe the sweat from the brows folks, we might be losing 1-0 but it is only half time. We're sending on the world class strikers for the second half. Game on.

PS
I shall be chanting from the stands.

As you can see from the image above that there was a another burst of cold at 150hpa giving the extra momentum. I see it nearing the end of its rule so will be looking for effect from that warming to reach further down through the Strat

We want those Easterlys (Green) to reach down as much as possible.

Rebelbrowser · 11-01-2012 12:54am

redsunset wrote: »

Right just where the hell are we at the moment, in how the minor Strat Warming is progressing toward influencing this chaotic layer at the bottom of the atmosphere, where we just so happen to reside.

Well below we can see that the very cold Strat conditions earlier are still having an influence, however as you can see, "The End Is Nigh"

Wipe the sweat from the brows folks, we might be losing 1-0 but it is only half time. We're sending on the world class strikers for the second half. Game on.

PS
I shall be chanting from the stands.

As you can see from the image above that there was a another burst of cold at 150hpa giving the extra momentum. I see it nearing the end of its rule so will be looking for effect from that warming to reach further down through the Strat

We want those Easterlys (Green) to reach down as much as possible.

Unfortunately our world class strikers are Fernando Torres and Andy Carroll.

Redsunset · 11-01-2012 1:21am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Unfortunately our world class strikers are Fernando Torres and Andy Carroll.

Nope, I sent on Lionel Messi and David villa. Should make an impact.:D

M.T. Cranium · 11-01-2012 2:14am

I would say the outcome is about 50-50 looking at the GFS perturbations, some are much better than others. There are some "cracking" snowstorms in some of the runs at about 8-12 days out. Others have big windstorms in a cold zonal pattern similar to 3-5 January.

The thing is, once some blocking is established, then if the Atlantic is not as strong as before, it could start to weaken. I don't actually think in those terms, for me, the atmosphere is a response to external signals and so that kind of analysis is "teleological" language that ascribes motive or purpose to inanimate forces. But more to the point, the short waves can only go where the long waves say, it's not the other way around as so many weather watchers seem to assume. When people talk about "this storm will break down the block" what is really happening is that the block, by breaking down, will permit the storm through. Large-scale features are responding to one set of external signals (in my theory) and short-waves are lunar interference patterns that fall into that system, and have to go where the system directs them. It's like getting on a roller coaster, you can only go where the rails go, not where you would like to go.

Redsunset · 11-01-2012 3:17am

Yes high pressure is like a rock in a pond and the water (Storm) has to go round it until rock is removed.

What I'm playfully saying in the other post is that I would like The Polar Vortex destroyed.

Snowmaker · 11-01-2012 10:39am

redsunset wrote: »

Nope, I sent on Lionel Messi and David villa. Should make an impact.:D

Extremely metaphoric answer, still on the topic of weather of course...
Sounds like a dream strike-force redsunset, and that's all well and good, but in the current set-up there are other variables to add to the equation:
1) They are playing with an oval ball
2) The goalposts keep moving
3) Villa's mind is controlling Messi's feet, and vice-versa
4) Vidic & Pique are playing in defense, with Valdes in goal.
It doesn't mean there's not potential for a good result though, it's just not a certainty.

dexter647 · 11-01-2012 2:45pm

redsunset wrote: »

Nope, I sent on Lionel Messi and David villa. Should make an impact.:D

The only thing that is worrying about that analogy red is that David villa broke his leg a month back....:eek:

Snowmaker · 11-01-2012 3:17pm

dexter647 wrote: »

The only thing that is worrying about that analogy red is that David villa broke his leg a month back....:eek:

Then he's really not going to appreciate point #3 above...

The Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2011/2012

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