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18-06-2020, 18:28   #16
Gonzo
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We are now into the second half of June. We have had an interesting and mixed first half of June with plenty of showers, thunderstorms, some cold weather and some warm sunny days, a real mixture with a very uneven distribution of rainfall.

The drought conditions ended in many areas with much needed rain particularly across Leinster, parts of Munster and the north-west. Midland areas are still on the dry side, particularly County Offally.

The next week see's plenty of changes in our weather and indeed alot of uncertainty as we move into next week.

The weekend is probably the easiest to predict. The Atlantic is going to have a serious go at trying to impact our weather over the next week however it may have a battle on it's hands later next week.

A deepening low out in the middle of the Atlantic is heading towards Ireland for the weekend. Currently it is due to track quite close to the country with a band of heavy rain crossing the country on Saturday and into Sunday.



This band of rain could produce substantial falls of rain across the country with a real soaking on the table for the second half of Saturday. and into Saturday night. Midland areas in particular will not miss out this time around with rain right up through the country.



Sunday see's a clearance to blustery showers, most of these across the west with eastern areas perhaps staying dryer.

Now the tricky part. Monday see's another band of rain move into the south-west, this looks like it will push north-eastwards with rain across many western and northern areas. There is a possibility this band of rain may not reach the east and south-east as higher pressure builds across eastern areas. Temperatures generally mid teens but high teens to low twenties is possible across eastern and south-eastern areas if there are any decent spells of warm sunshine with the +10 isoterm just nudging into Leinster.



Tuesday may see another band of rain push into western areas but as it does so it may bump up against high pressure and move northwards, this band of rain may not make it much further than the Shannon but we shall see. Turning warm or possibly very warm across Leinster and parts of eastern Munster if sunny spells develop with the +11 isoterm pushing through the east.



Wednesday may see a return to dryer conditions across the country with very little if any rain, there may be a few light showers in the north-west but most places staying dry and relative mild with temperatures high teens to low 20's.

Thursday continues with dry and relatively settled conditions and some decent sunny spells. Temperatures generally high teens with low 20's in parts.

Friday looks similar but higher uppers crossing the country could lead to low 20's across most of the country.

This could all look very different in a few days time but it's beginning to look like things may begin to settle down and warm up after a fairly unsettled weekend to come. Eastern and south-eastern areas are now very close to have a warm or potentially very warm week at times next week and with a bit of luck the whole country may be fairly warm and settled by the end of next week.
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18-06-2020, 19:15   #17
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latest GEM is similar to the GFS run, after an unsettled weekend things begin to warm up considerably next week particularly across Leinster and parts so Munster.

This may possibly be an outlier but if this verifies we could potentially see the warmest weather of the year so far.



On Wednesday and into Thursday warmer uppers crossing the country from the south-east with +8 to +13 uppers possible.

Next Friday may see +15 to +17 uppers across the country with some very warm and potentially hot conditions.







This mornings ECM was showing something very similar to this with +15 or +16 uppers across the country next Thursday into Friday. Hopefully next week's heat surge verifies, at this stage many of us would like the weather to settle down after a somewhat mixed June so far.
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18-06-2020, 20:10   #18
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This evenings ECM not as supportive of very warm weather next week compared to this mornings run, which was a bit of an outlier. It keeps the low a bit closer to us over the next week but still get's there in the end with warm weather next Thursday into Friday.

Warm uppers move into southern and eastern areas on Monday. Could feel fairly muggy with warm air passing through the country.



We become more influenced by the ridge from Wednesday



Very warm by Friday with the +10C isoterm across the country, however there is the threat of low pressure brushing up against us again on the weekend.



This ECM not as warm as this morning's run or the latest GEM. Currently the GFS, GEM and ECM are trending towards dryer and warmer conditons through next week.

There is still the possibility this warming trend could fall apart as this is almost a week away. This weekend's low pressure is key to unlocking the warmth next week. Hopefully the low pressure get's out of the way and pushes far enough north from Monday and into Tuesday to draw in this warmer air. If the low stalls off our western coast, we may have to wait longer to get back into a warm and settled spell.
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18-06-2020, 23:05   #19
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All the models showing it a bit windier for Saturday on the latest runs. Windy for the time of the year . Atm looking like gusting up to 80 or 90 km/h on coasts and gusting up around 70 km/h overland, bit more on higher ground.

Plenty of rainfall up to Sunday night






More heavy rain on Monday and plenty of rain to follow after that.


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19-06-2020, 13:24   #20
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Not a lot has changed in the forecast since yesterday. We are still on course for a very unsettled few days with all parts of the country seeing plenty of rain between now and next Tuesday.

The UK seems locked in at this stage to a spell of very warm and settled weather next week. Yesterday showed hope that perhaps Leinster and parts of Munster would tap into this warmth and some dryer conditions from early next week but it was knifeedge stuff with the smallest shift in tracking meaning the difference between a cool and unsettled week compared to a warm and dryer week.

This mornings runs keeps the Atlantic lows slightly closer to us compared to yesterday. A wet day on Saturday, up to 30mm of rain in places. Cool and showery on Sunday, could easily dump another 10mm of rain particularly in the west.





Temperatures this weekend will struggle everywhere and it will be fairly windy at times.

Monday brings another wet day with rain sliding up the country from the south-west, possibly another 10 to 15mm of rain from that pulse of rain.



Temperatures on Monday maybe slightly warmer than the weekend, low to mid teens in most places under the rain but if there is any brightness maybe high teens are possible temporarily before rain takes over.

Tuesday is possibly the start of the battleground between the Atlantic and the Azores over Ireland.

Tuesday see's another very wet day in the west. This band of heavy rain slides up the western coast and doesn't make much progress into the country with higher pressure keeping eastern areas dry.



Temperatures Tuesday low to mid teens in the west with rain at times, in the east temperatures mid to high teens, possibly 20C if we manage to get some spells of sunshine.



From Wednesday the low moves away from Ireland to the north and this allows the ridge to extend it's influence into the country a bit more. At the moment there doesn't look like Ireland will get much in the way of proper warmth, high teens to low 20's is certainly possible in some nice spells of sunshine from Wednesday to Friday. Next weekend may get warmer again, possibly mid 20's but at this stage we're into FI.

This weekend's unsettled spell is locked in at this stage but there is still some time to get next week a bit more settled particularly in eastern areas. There is still a chance of drawing in some very warm air towards the end of next week but I would like to see the models shifting everything from Monday back westwards to have some confidence towards a settled and dry spell, even if it's only for a few days.

Next week's outlook will likely have changes to it again over the next few days, even small adjustments can really impact our weather next week, could mean the difference between a cool autumnal week or summer returning.
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19-06-2020, 18:31   #21
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latest GFS is fairly similar again but perhaps a bit dryer and warmer. It struggles to get Monday's rain to the far east of the country with maybe only a few spits and spots of rain.

Another band of rain on Tuesday sliding up through the country, this fails to make it to south-eastern areas and parts of eastern Leinster. Temperatures creeping up to 20C in places with some fairly warm uppers across the country, but with cloud and rain it may not feel that warm.

Wednesday has light showery rain but they may not verify. Temperatures high teens to possibly 20 or 21C in parts of Leinster.

Thursday we extend the ridge across the country, temperatures into the low twenties in many areas with hopefully some decent spells of warm sunshine.



Friday builds the warmth further with many places getting to 23 possibly 24C.



Saturday (getting into FI territory here), could be the warmest day in quite a while with mid twenties possible in many places, high twenties possible in a few spots.





Turns cooler again from Sunday.

This is still very much knifedge stuff, I am not sure we are going to get much more of a westwards shift once we have that low pressure in place off our west coast from tomorrow. Hopefully that Azores gives it more than a nudge to get out of the way quicker next week. The difference between an unsettled week of 18C and a warming trend with mid twenties cans swing very quickly as it doesn't take much movement to stay in autumn or restart summer. It is also possible Leinster and munster may just end up in a little cloudy area of no mans land sandwiched between wetter and cooler weather to our west and much warmer and sunnier weather to our east.



If the ensembles are right, Dublin and much of Leinster may start to dry out from Sunday with very little rain possible over the coming week.

We will probably swing between cool and wetter and warm and dryer runs for next week a few more times given the uncertainty our position on the edge of the Atlantic creates when it comes to building up warm and dry weather while an Atlantic pattern is trying to get going.
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19-06-2020, 23:57   #22
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Will get a few hours dry in the morning here in Kerry before the front arrives, maybe up until the early afternoon. Some heavy rain showing up along Southern counties and quite windy especially for coastal counties will feel it across the country owing to the time of the year with so much foliage.







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20-06-2020, 19:13   #23
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The GEM has a slightly different take on the next 7 days compared to the GFS and ECM. Charts on all models are fairly similar up to next Thursday but then some disagreement about a cool breakdown next Friday.

The latest GEM run is a bit kinder to Ireland in terms of sunshine and warmth this week compared to the other models. The GEM is a fairly decent model and has performed quite well over the past month, certainly has got it right more often than the GFS which has had a poor run recently.

Having said that my confidence with this GEM run isn't particularly high as both the GFS, ECM and UKMO bring in that low for next Friday and the weekend.

Tuesday looks similar on the GEM with all the other models, the low pressure is just off to our west and the azores is builiding across England and Wales with a heatwave developing there. We are stuck in no man's land between low pressure and high pressure. Uppers are fairly high but we may not feel it as there could be bands of rain or showers over Ireland on Tuesday.





Despite the uppers, the temperatures on the ground not that great with alot of cloud and bits of rain around, low to mid teens at best, maybe a hint at high teens in parts of Leinster if we manage to get some spells of sunshine going.



Wednesday see's the Azores building over the UK with the ridge beginning to have an influence on the weather over Ireland. Any showers dying out by this stage and the +10 isoterm crosses into the country from the south-east.



Temperatures high teens to low 20's across the east and south with the south-east in particular getting quite warm inland. Still a bit cooler across the north and west with Atlantic air still in place, but it should be dry just about everywhere.



On Thursday the warm uppers move westward and we start drawing in very warm +10 to +14 uppers into the country, this would be enough to get to the mid twenties in places, particularly across the south-east.



Friday is where the models differ. GFS, ECM and UKMO bring in a low from the west with much cooler conditions spreading across all parts of Ireland and the UK into the weekend. The GEM is a bit different tho.

The GEM keeps the low out to our west instead of letting it topple in over the country.



Friday keeps very warm uppers across the country and especially across the south with mid twenties possible, low twenties elsewhere.



The low stays out to our west on Saturday and we start drawing in winds from the south-east, this lowers the temperature across eastern and southern coastal regions.



GEM finally goes for that breakdown on Sunday ( 2 days later than all the other models) with cooler air heading in from the west, but still possibly quite warm across the east on Sunday.



Of all the models this run is certainly the best one for Ireland and it keeps the azores ridge going for an extra few days. Although the GEM has performed well recently, I would like to see both the GFS and ECM fall in line with this run more before I begin to feel confident about any of this warm weather later next week and into the weekend.
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30-06-2020, 12:51   #24
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A chance of some very autumnal weather this weekend, particularly on Sunday with a deep area of low pressure crossing the country. This low pressure could introduce much windier weather for a time and a drop in temperatures for the second week of July.

Rainfall amounts don't look too much over the weekend but it will always be wetter to the north and west.





Warmer air on Saturday will be pushed away from Sunday as the lower temperatures become established from Sunday afternoon and lasting into the second week of July. Temperatures generally in the 11 to 13C range.



The main feature of this will be the wind. Gusts up to 120km/h may impact just off our western coastline with gusts up to 100km/h crossing inland.





Still 4 to 5 days to go with this one, but if this verifies it would be a fairly strong to slightly stormy system for early July and it will be unseasonably cool with temperatures several degree's below average for the time of year.
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30-06-2020, 13:58   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
A chance of some very autumnal weather this weekend, particularly on Sunday with a deep area of low pressure crossing the country.

Still 4 to 5 days to go with this one, but if this verifies it would be a fairly strong to slightly stormy system for early July and it will be unseasonably cool with temperatures several degree's below average for the time of year.
Oh god, just when I thought things couldn’t get any worse. What awful timing for the height of summer. Sad times
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30-06-2020, 14:20   #26
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MT's forecast today appeared more positive than this. Hopefully this doesn'tcome to pass. Keep us posted Gonzo.. Question.. Why is there little rainfall with a deep low like this. Educate me Gonzo please..

Last edited by Gonzo; 30-06-2020 at 15:20. Reason: removed image quotes
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30-06-2020, 15:14   #27
 
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EON can you please stop quoting posts full of images?
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30-06-2020, 15:26   #28
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Any chance of any snow with this system?

That's all we are missing now. It's easy to see the climates a bit messed up isnt it?

We've had days of 27c followed by 10c and 26c followed by 11c

I guess that least this weeks 11c will follow a 16c

As we head to mid July things improve significantly
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30-06-2020, 15:34   #29
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Quote:
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MT's forecast today appeared more positive than this. Hopefully this doesn'tcome to pass. Keep us posted Gonzo.. Question.. Why is there little rainfall with a deep low like this. Educate me Gonzo please..
The main focus of my post is really this Sunday as it is something to watch, but as it's 5 days away it may not come to pass. Saturday looks decent enough with temperatures a bit warmer than we've had recently with relatively warm south-westerlies, could get close to 20C in places.

This low on Sunday looks like the main thing it will do is to introduce a cool spell which looks like lasting a few days. At the same time we do look like we'll start drying out as the Azores will make an attempt hopefully over the next 2 weeks.

Some of the other models aren't showing this very windy spell at all, keeping the low, wind and rain further to our north. It's the GFS that is showing this potentially very windy spell on Sunday.
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30-06-2020, 15:59   #30
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I hope I am wrong, but It looks to me like we won't get any protracted settled weather now in July, rather we'll get the azores high ridging in over parts of the country settlings things down for a while, but the north west could remain wet much of the time as fronts and low pressure systems are close by.
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