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01-06-2020, 11:13   #1
Gonzo
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Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2020 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Mod Note

This thread is for posting / discussing /analyzing charts up to T120 ( in the more reliable time frame).

If your post does not specifically relate to the charts then it doesn't belong here off topic posts will be moved- please use the Seasonal Discussion thread for general chat.

Thanks.


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Summer is finally here and here's hoping we see more in the way of warmer weather than we did last summer where we got so close but just missed out for the most part.

Today and tomorrow get summer off to a great start, however it turns much cooler from Wednesday and this weekend looks unseasonably cold with a very cool northerly in play.





We get -2C uppers widely across the country with the -4 uppers into the north.

daytime temperatures may struggle to reach double figures in parts of the north with low teens elsewhere. Nights may get cold enough for a frost in sheltered areas.



The cool conditions will persist for much of the following week. We may also see the return of showers, but at the moment they look fairly light and scattered and may return no more than 1 to 5mm of rain over the course of a few days.
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05-06-2020, 18:41   #2
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The ECM and GFS are set on course to bring a return to warmer and mostly dryer conditions into next week. However not all the models are in agreement for mid week next week.

The UK Met wants to bring us an unsettled and cool spell next Wednesday.

Monday and Tuesday look fairly settled with average temperatures returning, but they have a low over Iceland which looks set to drift down over us on Wednesday:





This low has the potential to deliver a fair bit of rain if it happens and temperatures would be cool. The UK Met only goes as far as next Thursday so the low pulls off to our south leaving us in a cool easterly flow.



The GEM turned much more unsettled today too and it is also on board with this low sliding through Ireland on Wednesday delivering a decent splash of rain.



As I said neither the GFS or ECM are showing this, I hope the UKMO and GEM is wrong about this of course but let's see who is right or will the ECM and GFS also get on board with this low for next Wednesday and Thursday.
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05-06-2020, 21:10   #3
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ECM now on board too for a spell of rain and some cool weather on Wednesday, so that just leaves the GFS on it's own with a warm and dry week next week. All of a sudden next week is looking more promising for farmers and gardeners wanting rain.

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10-06-2020, 19:04   #4
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at this stage there is no point looking into FI the models are not in agreement even over the next 7 days.

The GFS looks to be the most settled for next week as we attempt to build a ridge over us from the Azores, however low pressures are not too far from our north-west at any stage and it wouldn't take much to position these close to or over Ireland.





If the GFS is correct we should have a better week next week than this week, it will certainly be warmer and largely dry with some decent spells of warm sunshine. Temperatures would high teen to low twenties much of the time, possibly mid twenties in a few locations.

This warmer and dryer solution for next week is certainly far from guaranteed however.

The ECM is not so kind for Ireland, next week is looking rather cool and cloudy with rain at times with the warmer and dryer conditions staying to our east over mainland UK and into Europe.



ECM looks great for the UK as next week progresses but a different story for us as the Atlantic continues to nip away at our temperatures and any chance of fine settled weather. Leinster may get the best chance of any sunshine that's going but even here temperatures won't be all that great.



UKMO only goes out as far as Tuesday and it continues the unsettled theme going over Ireland with Atlantic fronts nipping away into our summer weather.



GEM is also fairly unsettled and cool for next week with the Atlantic winning the battle over Ireland and eventually the UK as well.





The GFS is on it's own with it's warmer and dryer solution. All the other models are going for another poor week for Ireland with generally cool and unsettled conditons.
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10-06-2020, 23:11   #5
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This weekend is looking quite interesting, we get a slight lift up in the temperatures which is a good thing because today is very chilly and we could do with warmer temperatures.

Looks very unsettled too on both Saturday and Sunday with plenty of heavy showers and downpours across all parts of the country.

On Saturday showers will move east to west across the country in a spiral movement.



Showers could well be more intense and widespread than what is shown in the above map.

Despite the unsettled conditions it will be much warmer than recently with temperatures getting close to 20C in many areas.



Thunderstorms are possible or at least thundery showers, particularly across the west and north during Saturday afternoon and early evening.



Sunday will be a very unsettled day indeed with showers slow moving and frequent spiraling across the country from east to west, perhaps some longer outbreaks of heavy rain in places.



Between 20 and 30mm of rain could fall in many places over the weekend, I suspect a few places will see more than this.

Sunday likely to be cooler with so much rain and showers around and very little sunshine. Mid to high teens generally.



Thunder is possible on Sunday but a lower risk than Saturday. I suspect this might get upgraded closer to Sunday.

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11-06-2020, 00:07   #6
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Getting windy especially along coasts and the SE coasts looking the strongest .




Last edited by Meteorite58; 11-06-2020 at 00:19.
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11-06-2020, 07:31   #7
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Gonzo. Thanks again for forecasts. Can you explain a lttle about the Cape chart please . Excellent work.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gonzo View Post
This weekend is looking quite interesting, we get a slight lift up in the temperatures which is a good thing because today is very chilly and we could do with warmer temperatures.

Looks very unsettled too on both Saturday and Sunday with plenty of heavy showers and downpours across all parts of the country.

On Saturday showers will move east to west across the country in a spiral movement.



Showers could well be more intense and widespread than what is shown in the above map.

Despite the unsettled conditions it will be much warmer than recently with temperatures getting close to 20C in many areas.



Thunderstorms are possible or at least thundery showers, particularly across the west and north during Saturday afternoon and early evening.



Sunday will be a very unsettled day indeed with showers slow moving and frequent spiraling across the country from east to west, perhaps some longer outbreaks of heavy rain in places.



Between 20 and 30mm of rain could fall in many places over the weekend, I suspect a few places will see more than this.

Sunday likely to be cooler with so much rain and showers around and very little sunshine. Mid to high teens generally.



Thunder is possible on Sunday but a lower risk than Saturday. I suspect this might get upgraded closer to Sunday.

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11-06-2020, 12:18   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eon1208 View Post
Gonzo. Thanks again for forecasts. Can you explain a lttle about the Cape chart please . Excellent work.


CAPE is a measure of energy that can be created if there is enough heat in a cloud to give convection.

The values are shown in Joules per Kilogram of air.

The greater the energy that is released during convection, the greater will be the charge separation and the more lightning can occur.

CAPE index of lightning risk
< 1000 -Slight risk
1000 - 2500 - Moderate risk
2500 - 3500 - Big risk
> 3500 - Extremely likely

CAPE is the positive buoyancy of an air mass and indicates the atmospheric instability, which can predict the likelyhood of thunderstorms.

Values from 1000 to 2000 can indicate forming of moderate thunderstorms, and over 2000 severe ones.

The charts I posted yesterday had values of close to 1,000 for the midlands on Saturday. Today the risk has been reduced for Saturday and upgraded for Sunday with values of close to 1,000 across the midlands. These could produce your typical Irish style thunderstorms but nothing on the scale that the continent and sometimes southern England gets to enjoy during the summer.



chart for next Friday



Those red colours over France on the 2,000 to 2,500 scale are the real deal, even the ones over SE England are over 1,000. It is extremely rare to see these values in Ireland but it can happen.
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11-06-2020, 20:52   #9
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thunderstorm risk is upgrading for the weekend, midlands, west and north-west most at risk. Probably won't be much for the east coast as usual.



On Sunday greatest risk is over Ulster and parts of the north-west and north midlands.



eastern areas might have a low risk on Tuesday.


Temperatures on Saturday, high teens to maybe 20C.



On Sunday the warmth is mainly across the north of the country.

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11-06-2020, 21:50   #10
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Thank you Gonzo. That's interesting that convection movement creates the charge that leads to lightning. Can you recall the values of CAPE for that lightning storm in early July last year that arrived in Waterford and rapidly moved up over the midlands. I presume they were greater than 1000.

Last edited by Gonzo; 11-06-2020 at 22:40. Reason: removed image quotes
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11-06-2020, 21:54   #11
 
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Please stop quoting entire posts of images.
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11-06-2020, 22:44   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eon1208 View Post
Thank you Gonzo. That's interesting that convection movement creates the charge that leads to lightning. Can you recall the values of CAPE for that lightning storm in early July last year that arrived in Waterford and rapidly moved up over the midlands. I presume they were greater than 1000.
Unfortunately I don't have any data for that storm, if anyone has any data on that storm, maybe they can answer your question!
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16-06-2020, 20:32   #13
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Looking very unsettled over next weekend, LP coming close to the country sending in frontal bands, blustery. Temperatures not bad in the E initially, poor enough elsewhere.









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17-06-2020, 22:58   #14
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Model predictions of 24 hr rainfall up to early Fri am.











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17-06-2020, 23:08   #15
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Wet and windy Saturday, heavier rainfall switching over to the Western half of the country, blustery Sunday with showers or some longer spells of rain.

ECM has the Lp closer to us on the latest runs, some quite heavy rain and windy frontal passage .













Last edited by Meteorite58; 17-06-2020 at 23:20.
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