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12-05-2020, 21:32   #46
Gonzo
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Earlier GFS runs were very warm and settled, this afternoons run is a bit more cooler and unsettled after day 10 but high pressure tries to get going again right at the end. However several of the lower resolution GFS runs are still going for very warm conditions right up to the end of FI.

some of the long range models are pointing towards a very warm June, will be interesting to see if that comes off. Could we end up with a warm or hot first half of summer followed by a much cooler second half? Time will tell.
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12-05-2020, 22:07   #47
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Earlier GFS runs were very warm and settled, this afternoons run is a bit more cooler and unsettled after day 10 but high pressure tries to get going again right at the end. However several of the lower resolution GFS runs are still going for very warm conditions right up to the end of FI.

some of the long range models are pointing towards a very warm June, will be interesting to see if that comes off. Could we end up with a warm or hot first half of summer followed by a much cooler second half? Time will tell.
In other words, a repeat of summer 2018? Let’s hope so. We can be sure of a cool and unsettled August anyway!
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13-05-2020, 10:12   #48
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Are we going to be looking for FI for rain now instead of snow like in Winter

E.g GFS showing rain day 10...this prob wont come off. Airplanes must leak water. No rain since lockdown.
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13-05-2020, 11:13   #49
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Are we going to be looking for FI for rain now instead of snow like in Winter

E.g GFS showing rain day 10...this prob wont come off. Airplanes must leak water. No rain since lockdown.
yeah it's been like that for a while but the GFS is trending more and more unsettled over the past 24 hours with each run. Next week is looking warmish and unsettled, it was originally looking very warm and dry. Hopefully the rain gets pushed back again, I don't want to see deluges till next October!

Next GFS run rolling out, hopefully we go back to a dryer solution for next week keeping the cooler Atlantic mess further away from us.
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13-05-2020, 11:15   #50
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yeah it's been like that for a while but the GFS is trending more and more unsettled over the past 24 hours with each run. Next week is looking warmish and unsettled, it was originally looking very warm and dry. Hopefully the rain gets pushed back again, I don't want to see deluges till next October!
As long as it’s warm I can bear the rain in summer. Great for growth.
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13-05-2020, 11:35   #51
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There is a possibility we could set up an Omega block next week with low pressure stuck in the Atlantic and to the east of Europe courtesy of a northerly shift of the jet stream. Omega blocking highs are notoriously difficult to push for those that do not know and our driest summers all contain them. As we seen from Summer 2018, models tend to be too progressive with omega highs. I think this is even more the case this time around with problems like less weather observations from weather balloons due to the pandemic and we are getting close to the hurricane season also which will mean more spanners being thrown into the mix. In fact, there is an area of low pressure near the Bahamas right now that has a high chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone by the weekend. Don't expect model certainty to become much better.



We actually already had an omega high this spring too that brought the March-April fine and dry spell with only a few blips due to changes in the positioning of the anticyclone.

With the current situation, regardless of all the rain we received over the summer to winter period prior, I think the prospect of an omega high is very bad news. The lack of rain from this spring is one thing but the use of excess water due to Covid-19 demand just makes this issue more apparent. A relatively wet summer might actually be a good thing in that regard or else I see a hosepipe ban being put in force which seems crazy to think after such a wet August, autumn and February.

Slightly off topic for a second but I will not be releasing a summer forecast this year (my most recent forecast was in fact Summer 2019). I won't say I have given up on seasonal forecasts but I do not plan to bring them back any time soon due to loss of interest and life being busier nowadays in general. However, the equatorial Pacific continues to cool down a lot. If this keeps going on and on, we will be in a La Nina by the end of the summer or the autumn which could mean a bad omen if it's warm and dry weather you seek. ENSO correlation with European weather is hypothesis at best but the rapid transition to La Nina and summers here have one of the better connections.

Last edited by sryanbruen; 13-05-2020 at 13:20.
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13-05-2020, 12:17   #52
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latest GFS run has us getting milder over the next week and staying mostly dry until next Wednesday, looks warm for the early part of next week until the breakdown. The GFS pushes very warm or hot air over much of Europe while the Atlantic rolls back in for Ireland, western UK and Scotland in particular.



This low turns Ireland fairly cool with rain at times and becomes quite windy.

Atlantic and low pressure takes a firm grip of Ireland and Scotland by next Friday.


A plume of heat over much of western Europe and eastern England by Saturday 23rd, Ireland remains in the cooler Atlantic airmass with another low lining up.






Relatively cool with another low pressure over Ireland by Monday 25th



Hopefully the charts will trend back towards higher pressure for us. It's a great run for most of Europe and south-east UK but the atlantic is too close for comfort for us and it has shades of July 2019/where the Atlantic continues to bite at the heels of Ireland where we miss out on the heat and the more settled conditions. There are signs that the high pressure returns towards the very end of the run so hopefully this maybe only a temporary blip and that we revert to warm and dry for June! This unsettled spell is still a week away so time yet for it to be delayed. Hopefully we will see the Atlantic pushed out further west on future runs.
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13-05-2020, 18:09   #53
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GFS rolling out again and it's more in line with what was showing the day before yesterday. It's much more plumey and continental for us with the Atlantic muck staying well out to our west. However there is some instability and thunderstorm potential within it.

I would bank this one. Up to next Tuesday it's broadly similar to what was shown this morning with warmth building from the south.



Wednesday see's a light south-easterly flow off the continent. the Atlantic tries to get close to us but doesn't quite get there.



Very warm by Friday 22nd with warm or very warm south-easterlies over Ireland, Low pressure in the Bay of Biscay may have an impact over southern areas with thunderstorms possible, especially in Kerry and Cork. Temperatures in the low to mid twenties widely.





Cooler with instability on Saturday 23rd, heavy showers or thunderstorms likely throughout the weekend.



Heights rise again by Monday 24th and the heat builds back.



We stay generally warm on mostly settled into the following week.



All to play for yet, this could go either way. Hopefully the warmer more continental flow will win out and we can keep the proper Atlantic flow at bay as much as possible. There is also the potential for some warm to very warm weather at times with thunderstorm potential in places as low pressures from the Atlantic or Bay of Biscay never too far away. Certainly the second half of May could be a good deal warmer than the first half. You could say this is starting to look very like May/June 2018 with the Azores high extending it's ridging over us from time to time as well.
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13-05-2020, 21:28   #54
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ECMWF keeps the nice warm humid theme going with potential for a thundery plume. Probably still too early for a real plume but would be a nice intro to summer

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14-05-2020, 12:55   #55
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GFS has fallen back more in line with the ECM this morning. Very dry outlook with plentiful high pressure and increasingly warm.

I echo my thoughts I posted yesterday though about model uncertainty and drought concerns if the exceptionally dry signal does verify.
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14-05-2020, 18:44   #56
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GFS has fallen back more in line with the ECM this morning. Very dry outlook with plentiful high pressure and increasingly warm.

I echo my thoughts I posted yesterday though about model uncertainty and drought concerns if the exceptionally dry signal does verify.
What were your orginal thoughts for Spring and Summer by the way? I don't think anyone could have anticipated what has transpired over the last couple of months
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14-05-2020, 19:11   #57
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Called it

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14-05-2020, 19:47   #58
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the next 7 to 10 days look mostly dry, many places seeing no rain at all and temperatures lifting up to the high teens and low twenties for many over the next two weeks, a few places could get to mid twenties if we get enough sunshine and winds from the east are very light. A few more coolish days to go and then proper summer like conditions from Sunday onwards. The current dry spell may break down in the final week of May but that's along way off.



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14-05-2020, 19:55   #59
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ECM painting a much more unsettled picture in the medium term, no? Low pressure all around us in just a week's time it seems.
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14-05-2020, 20:19   #60
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What were your orginal thoughts for Spring and Summer by the way? I don't think anyone could have anticipated what has transpired over the last couple of months
I saw a change coming sometime during March although felt it'd be more mid-month focused than the last week or so. I thought April be more unsettled than what came afoot and on the cool side. I didn't think highly of May either with much wetter than average conditions.

I'm glad I was wrong.

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ECM painting a much more unsettled picture in the medium term, no? Low pressure all around us in just a week's time it seems.
It's a strange run. Accumulated precipitation charts still look very dry for a lot of the country and I tend to not rate such charts high due to them being over the top - particularly GFS.

For a longer term pattern though, it does suggest a cool and unsettled synoptic with blocking developing in the higher latitudes. Doesn't show this until this day next week.

The model uncertainty goes on.
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