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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 03-04-2020 7:58pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Mod Note

    This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onward.

    If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

    Thanks



    today's GFS run ends with some nice high pressure and relatively warm air over us. After a possibly unsettled and cool spell around Easter, things are looking good as we head towards the middle of April.

    GFSOPEU12_384_1.png


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The weather looks quite and fairly settled out to +240. Hp near by and cols more evident than Lp. Should be reasonable to good spring like weather. Mild looking in general.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    After a fairly mild and dry first half of April, things looks like turning slightly more unsettled with a definite cooling trend, and finishing up possibly very cold as we head into the beginning of May. Temperatures gradually lowering day by day over the next 2 weeks and finishing up several degrees below normal around the 1st of May.

    We stay relatively dry with a cool easterly over the next week, keeping eastern coastal areas on the cool side.

    topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

    Around the 24th of April heights begin to rise around Greenland and northern blocking is getting set up, this results in much cooler air beginning to reach Ireland from Scandinavia.

    topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=219&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

    We finish up on May the 1st with a bitterly cold north-east flow with -5 uppers close to us,this would be a real snow maker in the winter, but of course this is teh start of May and exactly what we don't want to see set up as we head towards summer. Typical and beginning to look alot like June 2019. Showers could turn wintry on the hills with this one and daytime temperatures in the single digits widely.

    topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=6&time=300&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

    GFSOPEU06_276_2.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    It has the whiff of a late April - early May sometime back in the '90's. I remember looking out the window to see snow fall courtesy of a potent northerly. I'm not saying the same will happen this time, but as you say it will feel very unseasonal if it comes to pass.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,028 ✭✭✭ Oneiric 3


    It has the whiff of a late April - early May sometime back in the '90's. I remember looking out the window in to see snow fall courtesy of a potent northerly. I'm not saying the same will happen this time, but as you say it will feel very unseasonal if it comes to pass.

    Either 1995 or 1996 if I remember correctly. Snow showers in May, often while strong sunshine, much like today, was shining!

    New Moon



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    April has been a very settled month so far. After a fairly mild first 10 days, things have certainly cooled down alot over the past week.

    Looks like we have one more dry week before things start to turn much more unsettled once again with a possible cold snap into the final week of April.

    Heights rise over Greenland from next Saturday with the Jet starting to take a more southerly track.

    GFSOPEU12_171_1.png

    Low pressures track to Ireland by Monday 27th of April with colder air just to our north.

    GFSOPEU12_213_1.png

    Unsettled and chilly on Tuesday 28th of April.
    GFSOPEU12_237_1.png

    Milder and more settled by Thursday the 30th of April, but this doesn't last long.
    GFSOPEU12_288_1.png

    We finish up on 4th of May with a cool and unsettled flow in from the Atlantic.
    GFSOPEU12_384_1.png

    Could we be in for a rather cool and unsettled May? Only time will tell.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 78 ✭✭✭ Michael Dwyer


    Gonzo wrote: »
    April has been a very settled month so far. After a fairly mild first 10 days, things have certainly cooled down alot over the past week.

    Looks like we have one more dry week before things start to turn much more unsettled once again with a possible cold snap into the final week of April.

    Heights rise over Greenland from next Saturday with the Jet starting to take a more southerly track.

    GFSOPEU12_171_1.png

    Low pressures track to Ireland by Monday 27th of April with colder air just to our north.

    GFSOPEU12_213_1.png

    Unsettled and chilly on Tuesday 28th of April.
    GFSOPEU12_237_1.png

    Milder and more settled by Thursday the 30th of April, but this doesn't last long.
    GFSOPEU12_288_1.png

    We finish up on 4th of May with a cool and unsettled flow in from the Atlantic.
    GFSOPEU12_384_1.png

    Could we be in for a rather cool and unsettled May? Only time will tell.

    It was a beautiful weak in the western two thirds of the country. No cooling down. These FI charts are just that FI.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    FI still going for a cool spell of weather from next week and lasting into the first week of May. The change to cool and unsettled conditions has been delayed by a few days already so let's see if this continue's to get pushed back into May.

    Winds turn into the north from Monday 27th of April with very cool conditions moving south right across the country.

    GFSOPEU06_123_1.png

    Low pressures move in around 1st of May and continuing cool.
    GFSOPEU06_213_1.png

    We finish on May the 6th with northern blocking trying to get going again with the possibility of another cold plunge from the north-east.
    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png

    A potential for some frost too during night time next week.
    GFSOPUK06_141_5.png

    GFSOPUK06_189_5.png

    ECM also on board for some rather cool and unsettled conditions at the beginning of May:

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yeah ECM 0Z would produce quite a bit of rain starting around Sunday in the SW . Probably just what the farming community are looking for once the tap gets turned off again soon after :)

    Looks to cool down a fair bit all right with heights lower and and LP much more evident.

    Will see what the ECM 12Z shows later.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z showing less rain next week than the earlier run.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z showing fairly deep LP develop towards next weekend introducing very unsettled weather. Would be wet and windy with possible thunderstorms if it played out like that . GFS has a softer approach wet but not windy. Will see if it is still there tomorrow and how the models compare.

    ECM goes on to show HP build towards the S around Sunday of the B/H weekend , GFS not so. A lot of uncertainty in the charts after midweek.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM upping the rainfall amounts again but all dependent on how the LP develops towards next weekend

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    April has mostly been a great month so far, mostly dry, settled and sunny with very little rain. There has been some mild to warm weather, especially in the west. A real change is on the way now, temperatures fall off the cliff from Sunday and into next week with temperatures struggling no higher than single digits in many places.

    Temperatures stage a recovery around the 2nd of May but the outlook is much more changeable, this is the wettest run I've seen since early March, could well be an unsettled first 10 days of May with temperatures around average or possibly slightly below at times.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64969&var=201&run=0&date=2020-04-24&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    Fingers crossed we see a return to dryer and warmer conditions into the second half of May.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Timing uncertain but charts trending LP's over next weekend. How wet and windy waits to be seen but they are looking quite wet Sun and Mon atm.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    alot of uncertainty over the next two weeks, however it is beginning to look more like the first half of May is going to be very unsettled with no shortage of rain. The much needed dry spell of the past month is coming to a screeching halt this week as bands of rain start crossing the country from Wednesday.

    Today's runs shows a period of very wet weather from the 29th of April to the 7th of May. Not as wet after the 7th but remaining unsettled. It may become quite mild or warm at times as very warm air tries to push up from southern Europe, but it will most likely get squeezed over to the SE of England and into Northern Europe.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-04-27&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    GFSOPEU12_174_1.png

    Low pressure May the 5th could provide some serious rain as this rain will be fueled by the heat from the south and the cold from the Atlantic mixing.

    Ireland would narrowly miss out on this surge of heat, which may impact parts of England and gave them a very thundery situation.

    GFSOPEU12_168_2.png

    We finish FI with Europe warming up very nicely, but Ireland hanging onto the cooler Atlantic conditions with rain at times. Hopefully this isn't a sign of things to come for the summer.

    GFSOPEU12_384_1.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    My post above deals with todays GFS run. Todays ECM run is most interesting, could be an outlier as it involves some very warm and potentially hot air.

    2nd of May is similar to the GFS, warm air pushing up from the south, Ireland still relatively cool at this stage.

    ECMOPEU12_120_1.png

    4th of May, the heat get's close but moves towards SE UK and northern Europe

    ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

    The plume of heat then heads north-westwards over Ireland and much of the UK with +10 uppers across our south-west.

    ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

    6th of May we are under some very warm air with +10 to +14C uppers over Ireland, if conditions were perfect, this would be enough to get us into the mid and possibly high 20s. However wind direction (particularly easterlies) and instability would lower the temperatures on the ground somewhat, low twenties more likely

    ECMOPEU12_216_1.png

    ECMOPEU12_216_2.png

    ECM ends on May 7th with very warm air still over Ireland but low pressure approach from the south-west, this would likely produce thunder and lightning along with it.

    ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

    ECMOPEU12_240_2.png

    This one is probably a long shot, but if this were to pull off temperatures across Ireland could be between 8 and 12C above normal!

    ECMOPEU12_216_34.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    That would be most welcome after the shot of rain over the weekend Gonzo, would give some growth also. All the hallmarks for proper thunderstorm potential if we got a moist warm plume from that direction .The 12Z is a bit of a departure from the 0Z though, we will see tomorrow if it is an outlier or if a trend is starting. Interesting charts.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,102 ✭✭✭ Sammy2012


    Is this nice weather still showing on the charts today??


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    Sammy2012 wrote: »
    Is this nice weather still showing on the charts today??

    The ECM still looks good (but perhaps a touch cooler than what was shown yesterday evening) and the GFS is a bit of a mixed bag. Alot to play for.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭ US2


    Gonzo wrote: »
    The ECM still looks good (but perhaps a touch cooler than what was shown yesterday evening) and the GFS is a bit of a mixed bag. Alot to play for.

    Seems the UK could reach 30c earlier than ever before ?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    US2 wrote: »
    Seems the UK could reach 30c earlier than ever before ?

    unlikely. They reached 29.4C on the 16th of April 1949 and have gotten close to 33C several times in May over the years.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,102 ✭✭✭ Sammy2012


    Gonzo wrote: »
    The ECM still looks good (but perhaps a touch cooler than what was shown yesterday evening) and the GFS is a bit of a mixed bag. Alot to play for.

    Having a bad day today so will look at the positive side for now! Fingers crossed. Cooler and dry and sunny would be fine by me.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭ US2


    Gonzo wrote: »
    unlikely. They reached 29.4C on the 16th of April 1949 and have gotten close to 33C several times in May over the years.

    The earliest ever 30c in the UK is may 12th..Could easily have 30c before that this year


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,071 ✭✭✭ PukkaStukka


    That would be most welcome after the shot of rain over the weekend Gonzo, would give some growth also. All the hallmarks for proper thunderstorm potential if we got a moist warm plume from that direction .The 12Z is a bit of a departure from the 0Z though, we will see tomorrow if it is an outlier or if a trend is starting. Interesting charts.
    Indeed....why am I reminded of June '86 with that setup :D


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 Cork Boy 53


    US2 wrote: »
    The earliest ever 30c in the UK is may 12th..Could easily have 30c before that this year

    What year did that happen?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM was a lot better this morning,not as warm on this run and shown to be quite wet next week but the only certainty atm is the uncertainty.

    It does look like the cut off low will be meandering around sending in bands of rain over us at times , how warm depends on position, but currently not looking overly warm . Could be thundery up from the S. Presently looks cloudy and wet for a lot of the time. Complex system. GFS wants to build pressure towards the weekend.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,651 ✭✭✭ US2


    What year did that happen?

    1945


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Well what do ya know.

    Big turn around again from the ECM with HP building and on the current run blocks the Lp from moving in over us. GFS going with a very different trend these last few runs with the LP meandering around the Bay of Biscay the middle of next week. Hmmm.....

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,450 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    GFS 12Z

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  • Registered Users Posts: 47,641 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    GET IN MY BELLY
    Sun sun sun


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,171 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    some very big changes within the charts in just a few days, that's why FI is called Fantasy island for a reason, quite often the extended range stuff doesn't play out especially if it's forecasting the stuff we love such as hot plumes or cold plunges.

    The very wet models of recent days have now started trending much dryer, especially over the next week. Temperatures will lift up to the high teens in places over the next week, but no record warmth as what was showing in the ECM a few days ago.

    Another big change is a very definite cold plunge in about 9 days time, temperatures fall off the cliff delivery possibly a taste of winter around the 10th of May with uppers crashing as low as -8C on some of the models. A few of the model are also showing potential for some sleet and snow showers with this too over high ground with daytime temperatures as low as 8C and lower during any showers.Places like Scotland could see low level snow at night.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-05-01&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

    May the 7th looks very pleasant, with light south-easterlies and relatively settled conditions, feeling quite Spring like with warmer temperatures especially in the west, still a bit cool along the east coast.

    GFSOPEU06_153_1.png

    Temperatures could get close to 20C in some western areas next week and possibly 15C in eastern areas with the onshore breeze keeping much of Leinster several degree's cooler. Should be pleasant with sunshine in most places next Thursday and Friday.

    GFSOPUK06_177_5.png

    Big change around the 10th/11th of May with a cold plunge from the north-east. This is what we wanted to see all winter and we end up getting it in May.

    GFSOPEU06_231_1.png

    Many of the models are going colder than this bringing -5C uppers and colder through the country, however the GFS Operational doesn't get as cold as that.

    We finish on May the 17th, still with a very cool airflow over the country and temperatures in the low teens at best.

    GFSOPEU06_384_1.png

    For once I really hope this cold spell does not work out, it's far too late in the year for something this cold. Fingers crossed this one gets shoved off the table fairly quickly.


This discussion has been closed.
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