Australian Response

Peregrinus · 17-02-2021 10:30am

The problem with measures like the Demographia comparison is that different countries take a different approach to drawing local government boundaries and defining what does and does not count as part of the metropolitan region.

I live in Perth. The Perth Metropolitan Region, from the Demographia report, is 1,566 sq. km, which gives a population density of 1,000 people per sq. km. But, for comparison, the area of Dublin City and County combined is 922 sq. km. The Perth Metro Region is about 70% larger. And I can testify, because I live there, that large swathes of the Perth Metro Region are bush, or forest, or desert — largely unpopulated. The actual built-up parts of Perth are much, much more densely populated than the average for the metro region would suggest. And, of course, virtually the entire population lives in the built-up parts. So people do live a lot closer to one another than the average population density would suggest. Most residents of Perth live, and the average resident of Perth lives, in a community where the population density is much, much greater than 1,000 people per sq. km. I myself live in a long-established, low-density suburb where the population density is 2,380/sq km, and it would be regarded in Perth as one of the less densely settled neighbourhoods.

Now, as I said before, it is true that Australian suburbs tend to be built on generous lines, and they are less crowded than Irish suburbs. But it's hard to disentangle how much of the difference in population density showing up in things like the Demographia report is attibutable to that, and how much to the tendency to include signficant uninhabited areas in the Australian concept of a metropolitan region.

It seems to me that the figure we actually want is, for your average resident of Ireland/Australia, how many people live within (say) 5 km of them? And I don't have that figure.

You're absolutely right that if, the population of Australia were dropped into Belgium and the Netherlands, there woudl be different results. But that wouldn't be only, or even mainly, down to the different population density. It would also be because Belgium and the Netherlands couldn't possibly apply border controls with the rigour and effectiveness that Australia has — it would do much, much more social and economic damage than it does in Australia, and no matter how hard you to tried to implement it it would be much leakier. Belgium and the Netherland have to come up with strategies that are adapted to the circumstances of Belgium and the Netherlands. Replicating Australian strategies is not what they need to do.

I haven't come into this thread to say "Australia wonderful, everyone else sh!te". I came in to refute the suggestion that Australian strategies are harmful to Australia. The fact is that they have been disruptive and costly, but less so - much less so - than the policies that most European governments have implemented, and they have worked well in the Australian context; we have a much lower rate of CV19 infections and deaths than most European countries. For these two reasons any cost-benefit analysis of Australian policies is going to rate them very highly. Australian policies might not suit Belgium and the Netherlands, but they do suit Australia. And once we get around the idea that "learning from Australia" has to mean "slavishly imitating Australia" then, yeah, other countries might learn useful things by observing what strategies have worked in Australia.

Dr. Em · 17-02-2021 10:52am

Peregrinus wrote: »

I live in Perth. The Perth Metropolitan Region, from the Demographia report, is 1,566 sq. km, which gives a population density of 1,000 people per sq. km. But, for comparison, the area of Dublin City and County combined is 922 sq. km. The Perth Metro Region is about 70% larger. And I can testify, because I live there, that large swathes of the Perth Metro Region are bush, or forest, or desert — largely unpopulated. The actual built-up parts of Perth are much, much more densely populated than the average for the metro region would suggest.

Are most people in the built-up areas of Perth iving in purpose-built apartments? The majority of young professionals (22-30 years old) I know in Dublin, Cork and Galway live in old houses that have been repurposed as 4-6 rented bedrooms. Everyone is sharing the kitchen and common areas, and in extreme circumstance, the bathroom. Having 6 young renters from different families living under one roof has to be worse for spreading the virus than proper single-occupant or single-family apartments.

Chivito550 · 17-02-2021 10:54am

Peregrinus wrote: »

The problem with measures like the Demographia comparison is that different countries take a different approach to drawing local government boundaries and defining what does and does not count as part of the metropolitan region.

I live in Perth. The Perth Metropolitan Region, from the Demographia report, is 1,566 sq. km, which gives a population density of 1,000 people per sq. km. But, for comparison, the area of Dublin City and County combined is 922 sq. km. The Perth Metro Region is about 70% larger. And I can testify, because I live there, that large swathes of the Perth Metro Region are bush, or forest, or desert — largely unpopulated. The actual built-up parts of Perth are much, much more densely populated than the average for the metro region would suggest. And, of course, virtually the entire population lives in the built-up parts. So people do live a lot closer to one another than the average population density would suggest. Most residents of Perth live, and the average resident of Perth lives, in a community where the population density is much, much greater than 1,000 people per sq. km. I myself live in a long-established, low-density suburb where the population density is 2,380/sq km, and it would be regarded in Perth as one of the less densely settled neighbourhoods.

Now, as I said before, it is true that Australian suburbs tend to be built on generous lines, and they are less crowded than Irish suburbs. But it's hard to disentangle how much of the difference in population density showing up in things like the Demographia report is attibutable to that, and how much to the tendency to include signficant uninhabited areas in the Australian concept of a metropolitan region.

It seems to me that the figure we actually want is, for your average resident of Ireland/Australia, how many people live within (say) 5 km of them? And I don't have that figure.

You're absolutely right that if, the population of Australia were dropped into Belgium and the Netherlands, there woudl be different results. But that wouldn't be only, or even mainly, down to the different population density. It would also be because Belgium and the Netherlands couldn't possibly apply border controls with the rigour and effectiveness that Australia has — it would do much, much more social and economic damage than it does in Australia, and no matter how hard you to tried to implement it it would be much leakier. Belgium and the Netherland have to come up with strategies that are adapted to the circumstances of Belgium and the Netherlands. Replicating Australian strategies is not what they need to do.

I haven't come into this thread to say "Australia wonderful, everyone else sh!te". I came in to refute the suggestion that Australian strategies are harmful to Australia. The fact is that they have been disruptive and costly, but less so - much less so - than the policies that most European governments have implemented, and they have worked well in the Australian context; we have a much lower rate of CV19 infections and deaths than most European countries. For these two reasons any cost-benefit analysis of Australian policies is going to rate them very highly. Australian policies might not suit Belgium and the Netherlands, but they do suit Australia. And once we get around the idea that "learning from Australia" has to mean "slavishly imitating Australia" then, yeah, other countries might learn useful things by observing what strategies have worked in Australia.

Agree with most of that. However, most cities have areas that are uninhabited. Maybe Australian cities have more, though I wouldn't be confident on that at all. Sometimes these studies take this into account and only use inhabited areas when calculating density. Not sure if it's the case with this report or not though.

Agree with your overall sentiment. I personally think Australia has done a very good job in the context of Australia. Their methods have worked for them. They won't work for many others as you have outlined.

There does seem to be quite a bit of Aussie bravado around it all though, both in general, and occasionally in this thread. Not surprising as when I lived there I frequently came across Australians who would go out of your way to vocally tell you that Australia is the greatest place on earth, even though most of them had never left the country or been to 2 or 3 other countries tops. I think that gets peoples' backs up a bit. The Australian Open was to show off to the world how great their measures have been.

I love Australia for the record (except their TV and their media which is pure trash

)

Noo · 17-02-2021 10:58am

In terms of covid, Australia is just as densely populated as anywhere in europe....in offices, public transport, airplanes, concerts, sports games, pubs, restaurants, festivals, childcare, schools, universities, aged care, shopping centres, the list goes on. Those are the places where disease can spread. Having neighbours out in the burbs a bit further away than their European counterparts makes feck all difference.

Peregrinus · 17-02-2021 11:03am

Dr. Em wrote: »

Are most people in the built-up areas of Perth iving in purpose-built apartments? The majority of young professionals (22-30 years old) I know in Dublin, Cork and Galway live in old houses that have been repurposed as 4-6 rented bedrooms. Everyone is sharing the kitchen and common areas, and in extreme circumstance, the bathroom. Having 6 young renters from different families living under one roof has to be worse for spreading the virus than proper single-occupant or single-family apartments.

Housing is expensive in Perth and share-homes (with shared bathrooms) for singles in their 20s would be common. My daughter is 21 and she lives with us; nearly all of her friends who do not live with their parents live in share houses with other young adults. None of them live in apartments.

Regarding the prevalence of apartments, about 20% of Australians aged 25-34 live in apartment homes (and some of them would be shared). I don't know what the corresponding figure for Ireland would be. The figure for Perth would be lower than this, since apartments in Australia are heavily concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne.

17-02-2021 11:13am

Dr. Em wrote: »

Are most people in the built-up areas of Perth iving in purpose-built apartments? The majority of young professionals (22-30 years old) I know in Dublin, Cork and Galway live in old houses that have been repurposed as 4-6 rented bedrooms. Everyone is sharing the kitchen and common areas, and in extreme circumstance, the bathroom. Having 6 young renters from different families living under one roof has to be worse for spreading the virus than proper single-occupant or single-family apartments.

In my experience there’s a lot more house sharing than in single dwelling apartments. Think of a 3 bed semi in Dublin with a garden that’s been knocked down and 3x 3 bed bungalows (small square footage) built in its place.

That’s 3 different people (not accounting for couples) sharing communal areas.

Edit: I’m talking about Perth only.

Dr. Em · 17-02-2021 11:22am

I haven't found any good statistics for Ireland to compare, although the 2016 census had almost 10% of the population living in accomodation with more people than rooms, which is a bit mad. My gut feeling would be there there is more overcrowding in Irish cities, but maybe its not dramatic enough to need a much different approach to Covid control, if we were to try to apply Australian lessons here.

17-02-2021 11:24am

I wish I was in Oz right now

mandrake04 · 17-02-2021 11:29am

Noo wrote: »

In terms of covid, Australia is just as densely populated as anywhere in europe....in offices, public transport, airplanes, concerts, sports games, pubs, restaurants, festivals, childcare, schools, universities, aged care, shopping centres, the list goes on. Those are the places where disease can spread. Having neighbours out in the burbs a bit further away than their European counterparts makes feck all difference.

Was just about to say the same, doesn't really matter how big your house or garden is, sure look at the type of housing in Singapore, Hong Kong and Seoul.

At home is the safest place, 1.5m-2m is considered safe distance from virus... hence why everyone has to stay at home as much as possible.

Offices, buses, pubs, childcare restaurants and everywhere else you mentioned are pretty much the same the western world over including Europe, Australia and NZ

Chivito550 · 18-02-2021 12:47am

What I don't get is, if Australia is adopting zero Covid, then why the need for any restrictions at all when case numbers are zero? Why is Rod Laver Arena limited to 50% capacity for the coming days for example?

Mellor · 18-02-2021 12:56am

Chivito550 wrote: »

Hugely urbanised country, yes.

Densely population cities, no.

https://architectureau.com/articles/australian-cities-among-the-largest-and-least-densely-settled-in-the-world/

There's a good 94 page report called Demographia World Urban Areas which ranks all cities with a population of over 500,000. Australian cities are languishing towards the bottom. Most recent list is 2020. Its a PDF so can't figure out how to share it, but you'll find it easily through Google.

That lists the area and density of the Urban area around Sydney, not of Sydney itself. The urban area would include surround cities and metro areas.
It's like Dublin City vrs County Dublin.

Saying Dublin is more densely populated that Sydney is simply wrong.

mandrake04 · 18-02-2021 1:12am

Chivito550 wrote: »

What I don't get is, if Australia is adopting zero Covid, then why the need for any restrictions at all when case numbers are zero? Why is Rod Laver Arena limited to 50% capacity for the coming days for example?

Because there is no such thing as Zero Covid, its just a term used by retards.

Australia does not use the term Zero Covid and never did. They use the term low community transmission, or working towards no community transmission. This term implies that at all times you should assume there is Covid out there and so take precautions, 50% capacity is better than 0% capacity.

The capacity varies from state to state, Victoria is obviously more cautious.

There have been RL matches in Brisbane last year with 100% capacity, NSW outdoor stadium capacity is limited to 100% of seated and 75% of indoor seated.

Peregrinus · 18-02-2021 2:23am

Chivito550 wrote: »

What I don't get is, if Australia is adopting zero Covid, then why the need for any restrictions at all when case numbers are zero? Why is Rod Laver Arena limited to 50% capacity for the coming days for example?

How do you think you get to zero covid? It doesn't just happen.

Right now, Victoria doesn't have zero covid - there are 25 active cases, as of this morning. 8 of those are recent arrivals still in hotel quarantine; 17 are people who became infected outside of quarantine, in all or almost all cases directly or indirectly from someone in hotel quarantine. And there may of course be some more as-yet-undiagnosed cases in the community.

How do you stop that from turning into a signficant outbreak, as has happened before in Victoria? By maintaining a constant level of protective measures even when you don't know of any cases in the community, to try and ensure that if a case does occur the initial spread will be slow, which maximises the chance of detecting the outbreak before it becomes widespread. And by going in early and hard with tough infection control measures ("circuit breaker actions") when you do detect an outbreak.

Victoria has just stepped down from 5 days of circuit-breaker actions, taken in response to an outbreak in the Holiday Inn quarantine hotel that led to infections in the community. During the circuit-breaker period nobody could attend the Rod Laver Arena - it was closed to the public. Now they are on "Covid-safe summer" measures, under which venues are open, but subject to capacity and density restrictions (different restrictions for indoor and outdoor venues), and this is what is limiting attendance at the arena now.

It's not guaranteed to work - nothing is. But, most of the time, it seems to work better than most of the alternative strategies.

derfderf · 18-02-2021 2:39am

NSW is now 32 days without a community transmission. When a few cases started popping up at Christmas I was expecting it to be the start of something bigger, but it was stamped out fairly quickly.
Really, the Ruby Princess was the only screw up by a state. Even the big outbreak in Victoria was caused by security "mingling" with quarantined passengers (allegedly). You can't legislate for that.

mandrake04 · 18-02-2021 5:54am

Chivito550 wrote: »

The Australian Open was to show off to the world how great their measures have been.

No it wasn't.

Victoria feared losing its prized grand slam tournament if it didn't host the Australian Open in 2021, says premier Daniel Andrews.

The state government has been criticised for holding the tournament amid a pandemic, with 1200 international players and officials given an exemption to fly into Melbourne from Thursday night to Saturday morning.

But Andrews said other countries would have pounced on the billion-dollar tournament with Melbourne risking losing hosting rights all together, which would be a massive financial blow to the economy.

He used Japan as an example, with their Olympic tennis complex in Tokyo ready and waiting after the delay of the 2020 Games.

The event is the richest and biggest on the Australian sporting calendar.

"If the Australian Open does not happen in Melbourne, it will happen somewhere else," Andrews said on Thursday.

"It will happen in Japan, it will happen in China, it will happen in Singapore.

"The real risk then is, it doesn't come back.

"Just focus on the future of this event - not just this year - but what not having this event this year may well mean.

"There are so many cities around the world that would do anything to have one of those grand slam events anchored in their city.

"Many ... might go ahead and build a brand-new facility from scratch to do it.

"You don't invite that."

Andrews said the event supported more than a quarter of a million Victorian jobs.

He added the government and taxpayers needed a return on the $1.5 billion invested in building the Melbourne Park facility over a 10-year period.

"This event is very important to our city and our state," Andrews said.

"On that basis, it is worth going to these extraordinary steps to make sure it can happen, but in a safe way."

Officially branded as the Grand Slam of Asia-Pacific, Melbourne has hosting rights until 2039 but remains vulnerable from being poached by China.

is_that_so · 19-02-2021 9:08am

Seems there is a rising level of vaccine hesitancy in Australia, above 20% according to this.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/19/more-than-20-of-australians-say-they-are-unlikely-to-get-covid-jab-study-finds

Noo · 19-02-2021 2:43pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Seems there is a rising level of vaccine hesitancy in Australia, above 20% according to this.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/19/more-than-20-of-australians-say-they-are-unlikely-to-get-covid-jab-study-finds

Doesnt really surprise me. One of the negative side effects of Australias covid success is that some people think its all an over reaction "sure theres hardly any cases, the restrictions are an over reaction" (paraphrasing my old boss). These are the people who dont have a vested interest in anything outside of Australia, so they wouldnt be following what its like in countries where its running rampant. Gives them enough energy to focus on the whole anti vax thing.

Get rid of the border closures and quarantine, let covid do its thing, and I guarantee theyd be begging for it.

Not in Kansas · 19-02-2021 5:39pm

mandrake04 wrote: »

Because there is no such thing as Zero Covid, its just a term used by retards.

And what's the term used to decribe people who use that word? I can think of a few, but they would get me banned.

derfderf · 20-02-2021 1:50pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Seems there is a rising level of vaccine hesitancy in Australia, above 20% according to this.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/feb/19/more-than-20-of-australians-say-they-are-unlikely-to-get-covid-jab-study-finds

Vaccine uptake in general is quite high in Australia, but Noo's comment is correct. COVID almost doesn't seem real here.
If what's happened in Australia over the last year was an actual reflection of Covid, a vaccine would be pointless.

is_that_so · 20-02-2021 6:53pm

Anti-vaccination protests.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-56137597

mandrake04 · 21-02-2021 12:27am

Looks like international travel possibly back on later this year, bar any further world wide Covid disasters.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/vaccine-hesitancy-grows-as-rollout-nears-c-2193333

Gael23 · 24-02-2021 7:11am

A zero approach means they have to manage reopening very carefully. No immunity has been built through natural infection in the community.
Also zero Covid means that you will never be able to travel freely. Now we have vaccines they need to decide if they are going to accept a few mild cases

Mellor · 24-02-2021 7:27am

Gael23 wrote: »

A zero approach means they have to manage reopening very carefully. No immunity has been built through natural infection in the community.

Virtually no immunity has been built up anywhere

Peregrinus · 24-02-2021 7:53am

Well, yeah. The strategy most countries are seeking to follow is to build up immunity through widespread vaccination. How effective this will be depends on two things:

1. How effective vaccinations are. What degree of resistance do they confer? Do they provide protection from disease, or also from infectivity? And how reliably do they do that? And how long does that protection last?

2. What proportion of the population has been vaccinated?

If the vaccines are effective against infectivity, and if you get a large proportion of the population vaccinated, then even the unvaccinated get a degree of protection because, even though still liable to infection, they are less likely to encounter someone who is infectious and, therefore, less likely actually to become infected. That's "herd immunity".

On the effectiveness question, we'll just have to wait and see. As I understand it, indications thus far are generally good, but there's lots of effectiveness questions we don't really know the answer to because data has yet to come in. Plus, new variants of the virus turn up from time to time; we obviously can't answer effectiveness questions about future variants yet.

On the proportion of the population vaccinated question, Australia may have a challenge. No country will get 100% of the population vaccinated - there will be people for whom, for medical reasons, vaccination is not indicated. There will be classes of people for who various vaccines have not been tested and, therefore, not approved. And there will be people who choose not to be vaccinated.

The last could be an issue in Australia. Early indications are that, the more severely a population has been afflicted by Covid, the higher the willingness to take the vaccine. No surprise there, really. But of course in Australia we've had very little Covid infection, and very few people have had either personal or second-hand experience of the disease. So we may find that a reluctance to take the vaccine is higher in Australia than in many other countries.

So, yeah. The vaccine is not a magic bullet; there are a few hurdles between approval of a vaccine and the achievement of a high degree of herd immunity. And it's the latter, not the former, that really controls when and how you dismantle your covid-related restrictions.

mandrake04 · 24-02-2021 1:58pm

Gael23 wrote: »

A zero approach means they have to manage reopening very carefully. No immunity has been built through natural infection in the community.
Also zero Covid means that you will never be able to travel freely. Now we have vaccines they need to decide if they are going to accept a few mild cases

I wouldn't be too concerned majority of Australia has reopened 8 months ago (Melbourne cluster fcuk being the exception)

Of course most of the restrictions is international travel.

80% say they will get vaccinated.

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8646-roy-morgan-survey-on-masks-borders-vaccines-in-australia-february-15-2021-202102141000

They just started 80k a week vaccinations and from next month they will be making 1 million AZ vaccines a week in CSL Melbourne, no AZ euro-crumbs here.

I think those who don't get vaccinated do so at their own risk and they will be severely disadvantaged when it comes to travel, jobs and socialising and entertainment.

Anyway travel not a problem once the vaccines are rolled out, just as in Ireland its hoped that the vaccine will allow business open it will also allow international travel from Australia. Travel might be resuming end of June.

The vaccine passports and certificates come into play around the world, so only those vaccinated will be travelling.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/international-travel-could-return-in-months-vaccine-passport-air-new-zealand/9d9ffa60-cee7-4fd8-b16c-1027f33ff025

ceadaoin. · 14-04-2021 2:26am

mandrake04 wrote: »

)

Of course most of the restrictions is international travel.

Anyway travel not a problem once the vaccines are rolled out, just as in Ireland its hoped that the vaccine will allow business open it will also allow international travel from Australia. Travel might be resuming end of June.

Really?

Health Minister Greg Hunt has refused to guarantee Australia’s borders will open even if the whole country has been vaccinated against COVID-19.

Australia’s borders have been shut since March 2020 and will remain closed until at least the middle of June, leaving more than 36,000 Australians trapped overseas, unable to return due to caps on the number of quarantine spaces

The closure also bans citizens from leaving the country unless they have an exemption or are travelling to New Zealand.

Mr Hunt suggested at a news conference in Canberra on Tuesday the international border closures could last much longer and stay in place even if the entire population had been vaccinated against the coronavirus.

“Vaccination alone is no guarantee that you can open up,” Mr Hunt said.

“If the whole country were vaccinated, you couldn’t just open the borders.

“We still have to look at a series of different factors: transmission, longevity [of vaccine protection] and the global impact - and those are factors which the world is learning about,” he said.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/international-borders-might-not-open-even-if-whole-country-is-vaccinated-greg-hunt-20210413-p57ixi.html

And still some people think the Australian/ NZ strategy is enviable? I've said it on this thread, they cant reopen borders and not get outbreaks, even with vaccines, seems they are realizing that now. Are they purposely trying to make themselves a pariah state, shut off from the world and even their own citizens?

Gael23 · 14-04-2021 8:09am

They need to decode of they can tolerate outbreaks that won’t lead to serious illness or death.

If they can’t and they’re case count has to stay at zero we’re looking at a new version of North Korea. A permanent travel ban would also I imagine e lead to mass emigration of foigenre based permanently in Australia

Peregrinus · 14-04-2021 8:29am

But nothing Greg Hunt has said suggests a permanent travel ban. At worst, what he's saying is that the lifting of travel restrictions doesn't just require the successful rollout of vaccination in Australia; it also requires the successful rollout of vaccination in other countries.

And since Australia is, um, not the fastest country in the world in its vaccine rollout, by the time Australia has vaccinated a critical mass of its population, much of the world will have done the same.

Mellor · 14-04-2021 8:52am

ceadaoin. wrote:

And still some people think the Australian/ NZ strategy is enviable?

Prehaps not compared to like pre-2020 life. But compared to the currently Irish situation, it's not even close;

Australia: International borders closed (exemption required)
National travel, Hotels, bars, restaurants, sports, events, entertainment, retail fully open. Gatherings permitted. Indoor and outdoor events permitted.

Ireland: International borders open (but shouldn't be)
Pubs, restaurants, sports, events, entertainment, retail closed.
No gatherings. Can't have friends over to your house.
Travel restricted close to your home.

I think the preferred choice is obvious. Anyone saying that would rather the current Irish

is_that_so · 14-04-2021 9:32am

Mellor wrote: »

Prehaps not compared to like pre-2020 life. But compared to the currently Irish situation, it's not even close;

Australia: International borders closed (exemption required)
National travel, Hotels, bars, restaurants, sports, events, entertainment, retail fully open. Gatherings permitted. Indoor and outdoor events permitted.

Ireland: International borders open (but shouldn't be)
Pubs, restaurants, sports, events, entertainment, retail closed.
No gatherings. Can't have friends over to your house.
Travel restricted close to your home.

I think the preferred choice is obvious. Anyone saying that would rather the current Irish

Let's not ignore isolation, the very low levels of cases, our own EU membership and what that entails, the EU traffic light system of risk and a general lack of inclination to keep our own people out of the country. We will be moving about more, both internally and internationally within the next 3-4 months. Australia by the looks of things will be 2022.

Mellor · 14-04-2021 10:23am

is_that_so wrote: »

We will be moving about more, both internally and internationally within the next 3-4 months. Australia by the looks of things will be 2022.

Australians have been moving about internally for months.

I was flew interstate for work last month. A college just flew 5 hours to Perth. Another 3 hours north.

Low levels of cases is a product of measures implemented. They weren’t weren’t lower in Australia initially.

ahnowbrowncow · 14-04-2021 10:29am

Mellor wrote: »

Australians have been moving about internally for months.
I was flew interstate for work last month. A college just flew 5 hours to Perth. Another 3 hours north.

Low levels of cases is a product of measures implemented. They weren’t weren’t lower in Australia initially.

Must have been a big plane.

is_that_so · 14-04-2021 10:36am

Mellor wrote: »

Australians have been moving about internally for months.
I was flew interstate for work last month. A college just flew 5 hours to Perth. Another 3 hours north.

Low levels of cases is a product of measures implemented. They weren’t weren’t lower in Australia initially.

Internal travel was not a reference to Australia, it was to Ireland - we'll be able to do both fairly soon. Our approach to quote our CMO from last March - "we think it is the right one". It's what all countries chose to do for themselves.

mandrake04 · 14-04-2021 11:23am

is_that_so wrote: »

Let's not ignore isolation, the very low levels of cases, our own EU membership and what that entails, the EU traffic light system of risk and a general lack of inclination to keep our own people out of the country. We will be moving about more, both internally and internationally within the next 3-4 months. Australia by the looks of things will be 2022.

Well that's assuming everything goes to plan, as we have seen several times last year and even as above with AZ and J&J.... things can change for the worse very quickly.

Although it might be the end of the year or into 2022 before there is a return to unrestricted international travel in Australia a cautious approach is not a bad thing, if a vaccine resistant variant or even a badly timed flu pandemic could put the whole thing go tits up in Europe and after the last year nothing would surprise me. Like what's the big rush?

To be honest I'm very disappointed by this pandemic, no flesh eating Zombies and it doesn't feel that eventful.

Mellor · 14-04-2021 1:29pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Internal travel was not a reference to Australia, it was to Ireland - we'll be able to do both fairly soon.

You said Ireland would be doing it within a a few months. And follow up with “Australia by 2023”. Claiming that wasn’t a referent to Australian travel is odd.

ahnowbrowncow wrote: »

Must have been a big plane.

Sorry, not following. Internal flights have been fully running for some time.

is_that_so · 14-04-2021 1:38pm

Mellor wrote: »

You said Ireland would be doing it within a a few months. And follow up with “Australia by 2023”. Claiming that wasn’t a referent to Australian travel is odd.

Sorry, not following. Internal flights have been fully running for some time.

Australia by 2022, internationally. We'll be doing it sooner along with our with bugbear of internal travel.

14-04-2021 1:53pm

Mellor wrote: »

Sorry, not following. Internal flights have been fully running for some time.

You made a typo saying a COLLEGE of yours flew rather than colleague. It was a jest post wondering how big the plane would have to be to fly an entire college.

I found it funny

trixi001 · 14-04-2021 3:26pm

I was chatting to a relative in OZ, and he is very keen to get the vaccine as according to him, COVID is fatal in 1 in 8 cases over 70 - if this is the type of (false) statistics promoted in Oz, shouldn't be much of a problem with the vaccine uptake..

mandrake04 · 14-04-2021 3:51pm

trixi001 wrote: »

I was chatting to a relative in OZ, and he is very keen to get the vaccine as according to him, COVID is fatal in 1 in 8 cases over 70 - if this is the type of (false) statistics promoted in Oz, shouldn't be much of a problem with the vaccine uptake..

Mellor · 15-04-2021 12:38pm

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

You made a typo saying a COLLEGE of yours flew rather than colleague. It was a jest post wondering how big the plane would have to be to fly an entire college.

I found it funny

Ah didn’t even notice the typo.

Mellor · 15-04-2021 12:43pm

trixi001 wrote: »

I was chatting to a relative in OZ, and he is very keen to get the vaccine as according to him, COVID is fatal in 1 in 8 cases over 70 - if this is the type of (false) statistics promoted in Oz, shouldn't be much of a problem with the vaccine uptake..

What do you think the “correct” fatality rate is?

15-04-2021 3:44pm

If people want to go to Australia later this year won't they be able to fly to New Zealand or Singapore first and continue on to Australia?

Edit: If the borders of those countries are open and Australia's are closed, I mean.

trixi001 · 15-04-2021 4:26pm

Mellor wrote: »

What do you think the “correct” fatality rate is?

The Case Fatality rate seems to be about 3% or average.. that's a one in 33 chance..

Its very difficult to find a split per age anywhere..

I do not believe it is 1 in 8 though...

Did you know 10% of people over 80 are expected to die to every year - thats one in 10 without covid...

mandrake04 · 15-04-2021 10:19pm

trixi001 wrote: »

The Case Fatality rate seems to be about 3% or average.. that's a one in 33 chance..

Its very difficult to find a split per age anywhere..

I do not believe it is 1 in 8 though...

Did you know 10% of people over 80 are expected to die to every year - thats one in 10 without covid...

Total for all ages according to above table is just under 3%, same table for over 70s M&F combined it’s about 8% not 1 in 8

aido79 · 15-04-2021 10:24pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If people want to go to Australia later this year won't they be able to fly to New Zealand or Singapore first and continue on to Australia?

Edit: If the borders of those countries are open and Australia's are closed, I mean.

They'll still need a visa to get into Australia if they aren't citizens. If Australia still aren't processing visas then there is no way into Australia regardless of what country they are flying from.

Noo · 15-04-2021 11:27pm

Quick question, just from my general observations in daily life, is there anyone here living in Aus that disagrees with the border closure and aussie response?

From my experience, while the international travel ban and the snap lockdowns are a pain, the majority in Aus accept and appreciate that this has given us so much freedom over the past year compared to the rest of the world.

Ive also noticed on this thread (with the exception of the start of the thread, my own comments included, before Aus got their arse into gear), that those looking from the outside in are critising the restrictions, while those living here are defending them.

I think with everything happening in Ireland its hard to imagine anymore how completely normal life is in Australia right now. When relatives call us, the first topic is covid and restrictions, its getting boring every week trying to explain that there are none, everything is open, normal etc. Incomprehensible to them.

Edit: I live in Aus, in case thats not clear from my ramblings above.

15-04-2021 11:44pm

Noo wrote: »

Quick question, just from my general observations in daily life, is there anyone here living in Aus that disagrees with the border closure and aussie response?

From my experience, while the international travel ban and the snap lockdowns are a pain, the majority in Aus accept and appreciate that this has given us so much freedom over the past year compared to the rest of the world.

Ive also noticed on this thread (with the exception of the start of the thread, my own comments included, before Aus got their arse into gear), that those looking from the outside in are critising the restrictions, while those living here are defending them.

I think with everything happening in Ireland its hard to imagine anymore how completely normal life is in Australia right now. When relatives call us, the first topic is covid and restrictions, its getting boring every week trying to explain that there are none, everything is open, normal etc. Incomprehensible to them.

Closing the borders early was the only sensible option. Unfortunately we have a border on the island that for political reasons we were never going to close and the government up there (and their mainland) are pointless to try and be sensible with.

Watching the NRL highlights over the last month or so has been pretty depressing at times. I'm a very jealous person :P

mandrake04 · 16-04-2021 3:05am

Noo wrote: »

Quick question, just from my general observations in daily life, is there anyone here living in Aus that disagrees with the border closure and aussie response?

From my experience, while the international travel ban and the snap lockdowns are a pain, the majority in Aus accept and appreciate that this has given us so much freedom over the past year compared to the rest of the world.

Ive also noticed on this thread (with the exception of the start of the thread, my own comments included, before Aus got their arse into gear), that those looking from the outside in are critising the restrictions, while those living here are defending them.

I don't know anyone who who is not delighted, I work with two other Irish guys and a bunch of Brits and its the same story we are all so glad we are where we are....extremely grateful.

I'm happy to defend Australia's response as its been the best one for us, the other alternative has been the European model and really at the moment Europe is like something you scrape off your shoe. Really who in their right minds wants to live like that?

I travel to Europe on business usually at least every 12 to 18 months, I drop into Ireland for a few days when I'm there and its more than enough. My folks come to stay here every 2nd xmas which is better for everyone. We like to holiday in NSW and QLD as we enjoy Jetskiing and boating and there's lots for the kids plus I rather enjoy the comfort of my own car and kids have their bikes and scooters etc. International border closures mean very little to me, sure as a dual passport holder I can get an exemption to leave if I wanted to but where would I go? most destinations are just a total downgrade.

I feel no real need to leave Australia, if I want to go on a sun holiday I can drive there.... if I wanted (I dont) to go on winter skiing holiday I can just drive there. I do however miss the odd trip to Japan as I love the place but no way would trade what I as its went sh!te over there now.

People can poke holes all they want they only see what they want to see, with the exception of Melbourne the country has being running fairly good since last May/June compared to other countries that's near a year huge differnece.... sure there are no tourists but most people are holidaying at home so its not as if the tourism or hospitality is on its knees as it it is Ireland. Its places like Bali and Fiji that are suffering more than Australia. Look at the economy is doing good we came out of the recession and the unemployment is currently 5.6% sure it was 5.1% before covid so its not that shabby, what's it going be in Ireland? and they are concerning themselves with us keeping our borders closed? No thanks you keep your sh!te life.

Noo wrote: »

I think with everything happening in Ireland its hard to imagine anymore how completely normal life is in Australia right now. When relatives call us, the first topic is covid and restrictions, its getting boring every week trying to explain that there are none, everything is open, normal etc. Incomprehensible to them.

My folks fully understand the difference and there is no comparison, my mum was delighted to see pictures of my 5yo first day at school... my wife and I pictured with her at her little desk in the classroom all very normal no masks or any of that other sh!te.... little things like that you can only do it once in a lifetime.

Sure the lockdown in Ireland seems to be working and numbers are down to around 300-400 but despite vaccines going for 3 months people are still dying, even Boris Johnson says Britain's success is more to do with lockdowns than the vaccines and the reports of children being affected in Brazil probably mean that there will be restrictions for some time to come. I think vaccines will help but until kids are fully vaccinated they wont be the silver bullet everyone is thinking they will be there will certainly be a lot of caution for some considerable time.

I would love the world to go back to normal asap but I dont think that will be anytime soon, until then I'm happy to live in the comfort of my gilded cage while the rest of the world scrambles to figure it all out.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater · 16-04-2021 3:17am

Deleted User wrote: »

If people want to go to Australia later this year won't they be able to fly to New Zealand or Singapore first and continue on to Australia?

Edit: If the borders of those countries are open and Australia's are closed, I mean.

I can't see New Zealand's borders being open before Australia's. It will quite possibly be done in tandem.

Mehapoy · 16-04-2021 3:40am

Noo wrote: »

Quick question, just from my general observations in daily life, is there anyone here living in Aus that disagrees with the border closure and aussie response?

From my experience, while the international travel ban and the snap lockdowns are a pain, the majority in Aus accept and appreciate that this has given us so much freedom over the past year compared to the rest of the world.

Ive also noticed on this thread (with the exception of the start of the thread, my own comments included, before Aus got their arse into gear), that those looking from the outside in are critising the restrictions, while those living here are defending them.

I think with everything happening in Ireland its hard to imagine anymore how completely normal life is in Australia right now. When relatives call us, the first topic is covid and restrictions, its getting boring every week trying to explain that there are none, everything is open, normal etc. Incomprehensible to them.

Its completely normal within Australian and has proven to be the correct response, for now, but i feel the zero tolerance of covid may become a millstone if other countries race ahead with their vaccine rollouts and Australia is still shutting down borders in and out. A bit like lockdowns itself, for a year, year and a half people are on board the travel restrictions but if 2021 passes and maybe 2022 aswell without anyone able to get into or out of Australia how will the large % of immigrant people handle not being able to get back to elderly parents, weddings, funerals etc. Alot of the globalised world is dependent on anywhere in the globe being 24 hours away, not so much the case now. As an immigrant i feel Australians can be insular anyway but this will magnify that even more.

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