The sun is dead!! Mini iceage???

2009 is ending with a flurry of sunspots.if sunspot 1039 holds together just one more day (prediction: it will), the month of December will accumulate a total of 22 spotted days and the final tally for the year will look like above chart.


Current Stretch: 0 days
2009 total: 260 days (72%)
Since 2004: 771 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days


Many thanks during the year for your thoughts and hopefully we shall continue to moniter our shining orb in the new year.

HAPPY NEW YEAR:)

Full Halo CME - In the latest Lasco images you can see a Full-Halo CME billowing away from the sun on Sunday. This appears to be a farside event and shoud not have an impact on earth. The source could be a sunspot hiding on the backside of the sun. Check out the image below.







Solar Update - Sunspot 1051 is currently the only visible sunspot on the face of the sun. Sunspot 1050 has decayed into a spotless plage.
Solar activity should remain at very low levels.
Sunspot 1051 (Sunday)

NOT sun related but found this and just sticking it in here,
JPL research scientists concluded the quake shortened the length of an Earth day by about 1.26 microseconds (a microsecond is one millionth of a second).


The 8.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Chile on Feb. 27 was so powerful it may have tipped Earth's axis and shortened the length of a day, scientists at NASA say.

According to NASA, a complex computer model's preliminary calculation shows that Earth's days should have shortened by 1.26 microseconds (a microsecond is a one millionth of a second).
A large quake shifts enough rock to redistribute the mass of the planet, which can speed its rotation.

The change won't be noticed in day-to-day life, but is permanent.
NASA scientist Richard Gross also calculated that the quake moved Earth's figure axis (the axis about which Earth's mass is balanced) by about eight centimetres.

The figure axis is not the same as the Earth's north-south axis, of which the Earth rotates around once a day at about 1,600 kilometres per hour. The figure axis is offset from the north-south axis by about 10 metres.
Melissa Giovanni, a geology professor with the University of Calgary,has said that an earthquake generally has to be at least 8-magnitude to have any recordable impact on the Earth's axis.

"The result of this particular earthquake, because it broke some a large piece of the (Earth's) crust, its actually moved part of the mass of the Earth," she said. "An earthquake of this size, I think it broke something like 400 kilometres of crust. That amount of crust moving all at once is changing the distribution of the mass of the Earth."

She added that the Richter scale that measures earthquakes is a base-10 logarithmic scale, meaning the 8.8-magnitude earthquake in Chile was about 20 times larger than the 7.1-magnitude earthquake in Haiti in January.

Using the same model, NASA says the devastating 9.1 magnitude quake in the Indian Ocean in 2004 shortened the day by 6.8 microseconds and shifted the axis by seven centimetres.
NASA says there are two reasons the Chile quake may have affected the figure axis more than the 2004 quake.

The Chile quake was located further away from the equator, making it more effective in affecting the figure axis.
Secondly, the fault responsible for the Chile earthquake is at a steeper angle than the fault in the 2004 earthquake. This moves Earth's mass vertically more effectively, making it more effective in shifting Earth's figure axis.

Scientists compare this to a figure skater's spin. As a figure skater goes into a spin and pulls her arms in, it speeds up her rotations.
NASA notes that the Earth's day can be increased as well. Filling China's Three-Gorge reservoir, which could hold 40 cubic kilometers of water, would increase the day by 0.06 microseconds.
Gross said the numbers were preliminary and may change as more information becomes available.

At least 723 people died in the Chilean quake. More than half a million houses were damaged or destroyed.

Paper is longer so I have taken pieces of this and made it shorter.
Just another opinion


The Sun is Undergoing a State Change


by James A. Marusek



Each morning, I turn on my computer and check to see how the sun is doing. For the past several years I was normally greeted with the message "The sun is blank - no sunspots." We are at the verge of the next sunspot cycle, Solar Cycle 24. How intense will this cycle be? Why is this question important? Because there are “Danger Signposts” ahead!



We are currently in a solar minimum leading up to Solar Cycle 24, so named because it is the 24th consecutive cycle that astronomers have observed and listed. The first cycle began in March 1755.











The sun exhibits great variability in the strength of each solar cycle. Some solar cycles produce a high number of sunspots. Other solar cycles produce low numbers. When a group of cycles occur together with high number of sunspots, this is referred to as a solar “Grand Maxima”. When a group of cycles occur with minimal sunspots, this is referred to as a solar “Grand Minima”. Usoskin details the reconstruction of solar activity during the Holocene period from 10,000 B.C. to the present.1 Refer to Figure 2. The red areas on the graph denote energetic solar “Grand Maxima” states. The blue areas denote quiet solar “Grand Minima” states.


The reconstructions indicate that the overall level of solar activity since the middle of the 20th century stands amongst the highest of the past 10,000 years. This time period was a very strong “Grand Maxima”. Typically these grand maxima are short-lived lasting in the order of 50 years. The reconstruction also reveals “Grand Minima” epochs of suppressed activity, of varying durations have occurred repeatedly over that time span.

A solar Grand Minima is defined as a period when the (smoothed) sunspot number is less than 15 during at least two consecutive decades. The sun spends about 17 percent of the time in a Grand Minima state. Examples of recent extremely quiet solar “Grand Minima” are the Maunder Minimum (about 1645-1715 A.D.) and Spörer Minimum (about 1420-1570 A.D.)




By monitoring the number of spotless days (days without sunspots) during a solar minimum, scientists can gain a sense of the intensity of the upcoming solar cycle. As of the end of December 2009, the cumulative number of spotless days in the transition into Solar Cycle 24 now stands at 771. The number of spotless days is beginning to tapper off. There were only 10 spotless days in December.

The transitions into Solar Cycles (SC16-23), referred to as recent solar cycles (years 1923 to ~2008), averaged 362 cumulative spotless days. Those minimums ranged from 227 – 568 spotless days. Since the current transition now exceeds this range, it is fairly clear that the sun is undergoing a state change.

The solar Grand Maxima state that has persisted during most of the 20th century is coming to an abrupt end. The old solar cycles (SC 10-15, years 1856 to 1923) averaged 797 spotless days, over twice that of the recent solar cycles. Those solar minimums ranged from 406 - 1028 spotless days.2 If this solar minimum ends soon, as it appears to be doing, then the upcoming solar cycle may be similar to the old solar cycles.

The sun has gone magnetically quiet as it transitions to Solar Cycle 24. The Average Magnetic Planetary Index (Ap index) is a proxy measurement for the intensity of solar magnetic activity as it alters the geomagnetic field on Earth. It is commonly referred to a measuring stick for solar magnetic activity. For 11 months, from November 2008 to September 2009, the Ap index had been hovering near rock bottom with reading of 4’s and 5’s. But in the last two months, October and November, the Ap monthly index broke through the glass floor and spawned the lowest value in the past 77 years with a reading of "3". And then in December, the AP Index even went quieter with a reading of "2". 3

Our Milky Way galaxy is awash with high-energy galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These are charged particles (protons, ions) that originate from exploding stars (supernovas). Many of these particles are traveling near the speed of light. Because they are charged, their travel is strongly influenced by magnetic fields. Our sun produces a magnetic field that extends to the edges of our solar system. This field deflects many of the cosmic rays away from Earth.

But when the sun goes quiet (minimal sunspots), this field collapses inward allowing cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. Currently the sun's interplanetary magnetic field has fallen to around 4 nano-Tesla (nT) from a typical value of 6 to 8 nT.

The solar wind pressure is down to a 50-year low. The heliospheric current sheet is flattening. In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen since satellite measurements began 50 years ago. 4

If we slip into a quiet solar "Grand Minima" state, we can expect GCR flux rates to increase 200% to 300% above current levels.




The sun has been in a “Grand Maxima” for most of the past century. This has accounted for much of the natural warming the earth has experienced.

But as evident in the high number of spotless days in this solar minimum, the sun is changing states. It might (1) level off and revert to the old solar cycles or (2) the sun might go even quieter magnetically slipping into a “Dalton Minimum” or a solar Grand Minima such as the “Maunder Minimum”. It is still a little early to predict which way it will swing.



There are some scientists that believe the sun, rather than leveling off into a new state in Solar Cycle 24, will continue to free fall throughout this solar cycle. Several scientists including David Hathaway (NASA)8, William Livingston & Matthew Penn (National Solar Observatory)9, Khabibullo Abdusamatov (Russian Academy of Science)10, Cornelis de Jager (The Netherlands) & S. Duhau (Argentina)11 and Theodor Landscheidt (Germany)12, have forecasted that the sun may enter a period similar to the Dalton Minimum or a more severe “Grand Minima” (such as the Maunder Minimum or Spörer Minimum), a decade from now in Solar Cycle 25.

A few scientists including David C. Archibald (Australia)13 and M. A. Clilverd (Britain)14 have warned this might even begin in Solar Cycle 24. We are at the transition into Solar Cycle 24 and this cycle has already shown itself to be unusually quiet.

The sun is a major force controlling natural climate change on Earth. Our Milky Way galaxy is awash with cosmic rays. These are high-speed charged particles (protons, ions) that originate from exploding stars. Many of these particles are moving close to the speed of light. Because they are charged, their travel is strongly influenced by magnetic fields. Our sun produces a magnetic field that extends to the edges of our solar system.

This field deflects many of the cosmic rays away from Earth. But when the sun goes quiet (minimal sunspots), this field collapses inward allowing cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. As a result, far greater numbers collide with Earth and penetrate down into the lower atmosphere where they ionize small particles of moisture (humidity) forming them into water droplets that become clouds. Charged raindrops are ten to a hundred times more efficient in capturing aerosols than uncharged drops. Low clouds tend to be optically thick and are efficient at reflecting sunlight back into space. A large increase in Earth's cloud cover produces a global drop in temperature.

Galactic cosmic rays are a very effective amplifying mechanism for climate forcing because the energy needed to change cloudiness is small compared with the resulting changes in solar radiation received at the Earth’s surface.

Earth’s ocean cloud cover is strongly correlated with GCR flux modulated by solar cycle variations. Refer to Figure 3.

Future low solar activity periods may cause extremely cold winters in North America, Europe and Russia

by Jarl R. Ahlbeck Jarl R. Ahlbeck, D.Sc. (Chem. Eng.), Docent (env. tech.) Abo Akademi University, Finland

17.03.2010



http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/labitzke/moreqbo/MZ-Labitzke-et-al-2006.pdf


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/

Summary.
The observed winter temperatures for Turku, Finland (and also generally for North America, Europe and Russia) for the past 60 winters have been strongly dependent on the Arctic Oscillation index (AO). When the Arctic Oscillation index is in "positive phase", high atmospheric pressure persists south of the North Pole, and lower pressures on the North Pole.

In the positive phase, very cold winter air does not extend as far south into the middle of North America as it would during the negative phase. The AO positive phase is often called the "Warm" phase in North America.

In this report I analyzed the statistical relation between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation index (QBO is a measure of the direction and strength of the stratospheric wind in the Tropics), the solar activity, and the Arctic Oscillation index and obtained a statistically significant regression equation.

According to this equation, during negative (easterly) values of the QBO, low solar activity causes a negative Arctic Oscillation index and cold winters in North America, Europe and Russia, but during positive (westerly) values of the QBO the relation reverses.

However, the influence of the combination of an easterly value of the QBO and low solar activity on the AO is stronger and this combination is much more probable than the opposite.

Therefore, prolonged low solar activity periods in the future may cause the domination of a strongly negative AO and extremely cold winters in North America, Europe and Russia.

Arctic oscillation index and Turku winter temperature.

Turku is located in the SW corner of Finland where the Arctic Oscillation Index for December-February almost completely controls the winter temperature for these months. See Figures 1 and 2.
Figure 1. Turku Winter temperature December-February 1951-2010 and corresponding Arctic Oscillation index, data from NOAA (2010).
Figure 2. Same as Figure 1., but the Arctic Oscillation index is by means of regression analysis converted to the same scale as the Turku winter temperature.
In January and February 1989 the Arctic Oscillation index jumped up to a very high level causing a warm winter. The index stayed at a higher level, but collapsed back to a record low level in December 2009 - February 2010. This kind of behavior of a time series is very typical for 1-lag and 2-lag random walk mechanisms.
The data for the Arctic Oscillation index (AO) December-February 1951-2010 (NOAA 2010) are presented in Appendix 1., and the probability density diagram in Figure 3.
Figure 3. Probability density diagram for the Arctic Oscillation index for December-February 1951-2010.
The Arctic Oscillation index for the winter months 1951-2010 follows a Gaussian distribution with an arithmetic mean value of -0.375.
The random walk behavior of the Arctic Oscillation index points towards a mechanism whereby the index consists of white noise that is driven by two or more harmonic oscillations. Most probable candidates for these oscillations are the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation with a period length of about 28 months, and the solar activity cycle with a period length of about 138 months.
A clear influence of the solar activity and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation index on the Arctic Oscillation index has been discovered by Labitzke and will here be verified by means of statistical methods.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation index.

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation index is a measure of the strength and direction of tropical stratospheric wind. A negative value corresponds to easterly wind, and a positive value to westerly wind. The data for the Quasi-Biennial oscillation index (QBO) December-February 1951-2010 (NOAA 2010) are presented in Appendix 1. and the probability density diagram in Figure 4.
Figure 4. Probability density diagram for the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation index for December-February 1951-2010.
For the winter months 1951-2010 the distribution is almost rectangular with an arithmetic mean value of -2.9. Thus, negative or easterly values of the QBOhave been predominant during the winter months.

The solar activity.

Labitzke (2005) used the 10.7 cm solar flux as a measure of solar activity. As the correlation coefficient between this measure and the sunspot number is 0.98, we may as well use the sunspot number directly.
The data for sunspot number (SUN) December-February 1951-2010 (NOAA 2010) is presented in Appendix 1. and the probability density diagram in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Probability density diagram for the sunspot numbers for December-February 1951-2010. As the sunspot number can never be negative, a log-Gauss curve fit can describe the observations. We can see that low solar activity has been more common than high solar activity. Taken together with theQBO, the combination low QBO- low SUNhas been much more common during the winters than the combination high QBO- high SUN.

AO as a function of QBO and SUN.

By means of multiple regression analysis, the following equation was tested:
AO = b0+ b1*QBO+b2*SUN+b3*QBO*SUN+b4*QBO2+b5*SUN2 (1)
where b0- b5are regression coefficients. The result is shown in Appendix 1. b2, b4, and b5were eliminated as statistically insignificant.
The final statistically significant regression equation (p < 0.05) is:
AO = -0.2779 + 0.06096*QBO- 0.0005149*QBO*SUN (2)

Graphical presentation of the regression equation.

On order to obtain a picture of the Equation (2), AO was plotted as a function of SUN for two values of QBO in Figure 6. These values were chosen as minimum and maximum values from the rectangular probability density in Figure 4.


Figure 6. Statistically significant (p< 0.05) regression model for the Arctic Oscillation index as a function of Sunspot Number plotted for minimum (east), neutral, and maximum (west) values of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation index.

It is very obvious that a predominantly low sunspot solar activity at negative (easterly) Quasi-Biennial oscillation index is able to decrease the Arctic Oscillation index much more than the other combinations are able to change the Arctic Oscillation index.
At high solar activity, the Arctic Oscillation index has not been very sensitive to the Quasi-Biennial oscillation.


Turku winter temperature.

The fact that the solar activity and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation together with stochastic noise control the Arctic Oscillation means that the Turku winter temperature too is dependent on these two oscillating parameters.
Equation (2) together with the connection obtained from Figure 2. give the result shown in Figure 7. Despite considerably high variations between different winters, the combination low QBO-low SUN is more likely to correspond to colder winter temperatures in Turku than all other combinations.
Figure 7. Turku winter temperature as a function of solar activity and Quasi-Biennial oscillation.

Conclusion.

Historically, low solar activity has been connected to cold winters in Europe. A definitive physical mechanism for this fact has not yet been presented. This analysis however shows that the influence of solar activity together with stratospheric mechanisms acting on the Arctic Oscillation is statistically significant. It also explains why the Arctic Oscillation seems to behave according to a random walk mechanism. If the solar activity in the future goes into a new Dalton or Maunder Minimum, the winters inNorth America, Europe and Russia may become very cold.

billy the squid wrote: »

would it not be better to link to hte articles and give a brief summary rather than copy pasting everything

Yeah i was going to do that from the start but sometimes it doesn't suit,that last one was in italian and some might not have the translator on their PC op system,plus i feel the info could be lost over time because some sites pack up and alot of the relevant info is buried amongst other stuff too and i do combine bits from different sites in the one post sometimes so its just easy for all to have a read here.

I don't see it as an issue really.