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The 11th Annual Boards White Christmas Thread

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    #32
    Pa ElGrande
    Registered Users Posts: 3,495 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QZCMcwhRwp8


    Gavs live stream asks "could We Have UK Snow For Christmas?", just going through the shoutouts for the next few minutes before gertting into the Christmas . . .

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



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    #33
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users Posts: 15,281 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Hi Pa

    Gav kinda tells ppl “what they want to hear”.

    For me he isn’t a reliable source


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    #34
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Good consensus between the gfs and ecm this morning on a cold outbreak from Christmas Eve. Maybe, just maybe.....


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    #35
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    Hi Pa

    Gav kinda tells ppl “what they want to hear”.

    For me he isn’t a reliable source

    A lot of forecasters try to give people hope at this time of year. Also to be fair based on some of the runs over the last few days, a white christmas in some parts of England, Scotland and Northern Ireland is certainly possible.
    So it isn't really a case of him telling people what they want to hear.


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    #36
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,710 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    a northerly can produce snow showers through alot of Scotland, down the eastern side of the UK and into parts of Northern Ireland so there could well be a white Christmas in parts of the UK. Unfortunately a northerly is pretty much useless for the republic of Ireland in terms of getting decent snow showers most of the time, maybe parts of Donegal can tap into those but Donegal is usually closer to the high pressure to our west and that too kills off the showers.


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    #37
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I recall several northerly delivering snow quite widely across the country when I was younger. We had days off school due to them

    Unfortunately, we don't seem to get those sort of northerlies any more.


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    #38
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I recall several northerly delivering snow quite widely across the country when I was younger. We had days off school due to them

    Unfortunately, we don't seem to get those sort of northerlies any more.

    I confidently predict a polar low on Xmas day!

    Seriously though, the gfs just out looks very promising for some snow between Christmas eve and New Year's.....


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    #39
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    I confidently predict a polar low on Xmas day!

    Seriously though, the gfs just out looks very promising for some snow between Christmas eve and New Year's.....

    Bank it please Rebelbrowser. If we don't get a White Christmas this year i'm holding you personally responsible:)


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    #40
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    I have said it since November, we will get snow towards Christmas. I can just feel it, such a strange year. I suppose some parts of Ireland have already had snow this month so any extra is a bonus.

    I just think that spell between Christmas and new year could produce some white gold.


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    #41
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    I confidently predict a polar low on Xmas day!

    Seriously though, the gfs just out looks very promising for some snow between Christmas eve and New Year's.....

    Just to add some flesh to these bones...

    By midday Christmas day cold air is descending from the North, by no sign of snow accompanying it as things stand...

    20122512_1412.gif

    By 30 December you have this....

    20123012_1412.gif

    20123009_1412.gif

    That is what the snow charts often look like when it is Irish sea streamers - they always under do the extent these penetrate inland. The likes of Louth to Wexford will get these snow showers if there is an easterly component at all (Anglesey and I of M shadow issues aside), depending on the angle of wind (eg. if SE or ESE) places like Waterford and Cork can get in on the act also.


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    #42
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,710 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Bank it please Rebelbrowser. If we don't get a White Christmas this year i'm holding you personally responsible:)

    those northerlies were proper and had polar lows embedded in them with more organised bands of snow showers. Northerlies of recent years are very tame and just standard scattered and often light showers which break up soon after landfall across the north and north-west. Usually the high pressure to our west kills off the showers so it is very rare for us to get a direct northerly that delivers comfortably for the republic with lots of instability.


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    #43
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Gonzo wrote: »
    those northerlies were proper and had polar lows embedded in them with more organised bands of snow showers. Northerlies of recent years are very tame and just standard scattered and often light showers which break up soon after landfall across the north and north-west. Usually the high pressure to our west kills off the showers so it is very rare for us to get a direct northerly that delivers comfortably for the republic with lots of instability.

    Yes, unfortunately they seem to be a thing of the past. As you mention it has been years since we had a polar low that delivered snow widely. With those polar lows even the Cork snow shield was broken!


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    #44
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Cold weather incoming on ECM for Xmas eve...

    20122400_1400.gif


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    #45
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Yes, unfortunately they seem to be a thing of the past. As you mention it has been years since we had a polar low that delivered snow widely. With those polar lows even the Cork snow shield was broken!

    Worth remembering that Storm Emma dumped more snow in Cork than any event over the last 40 years!! And that was only 2 years ago. An extraordinary event made all the more so by the fact that many seem to have forgotten it already


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    #46
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Very encouraging runs tonight, indeed a possibility of a longer cold spell, but that's an outside bet as that lobe of Vortex over Canada could well be a spoiler. The odds of something a bit more seasonal are looking a bit more likely. I still would not rule out some places seeing snow on Christmas day, but it is more likely that it will be dry and cold. I hope I have not spoken too soon.


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    #47
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Very good model consensus right now on a cold Xmas day which, straight off, would be a welcome change from the routine of mild Xmas days we have suffered recently. But at 10 days away that could yet change so no guarantee of cold yet. Equally its not exceptionally cold and nor does it look snowy - but in the same way you can't rule out a mild one you can't rule out a snowy one either. Its a northerly outbreak so Donegal and NI best placed for a White Christmas for now.

    You'd take this scenario ten days out every time....


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    #48
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Another very interesting GFS out mid morning. It shows this for Christmas Eve itself...

    Upper Temps...

    20122418_1506.gif

    And precipitation (pink = sneachta)

    20122418_1506.gif

    "..The moon on the breast of the new-fallen snow
    Gave the lustre of mid-day to objects below,
    When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
    But a miniature sleigh, and eight tiny reindeer....."


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    #49
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    It snowed on Christmas Eve my second Irish year. My first Irish Christmas it was dry and I drove down the Leitrim mountain where I lived then to Midnight Mass; something I had missed in my previous location!

    The second year I was starting to think about going down, when the snow started. Gentle soft flakes bright in the light from the door. Utterly hypnotic. Oh so magical....

    So I stayed home; it was over a mile of a narrow rough lane down so not a good plan to drive in snow.

    I don't remember how heavy it was; just that sheer enchanted silence when the flakes start softly falling all around.


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    #50
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Still all up in the air this morning but the ECM, generally the most reliable model, still has a cold Xmas day with colder weather after. Indeed 9 days out you'd take MTCs guidance from this morning which, as you'll probably already have seen, is for:-

    ".....TUESDAY a secondary wave may form behind the Monday system and that one could track into the southeast pulling the colder air further south, so that many places could see a sleety mix of rain, wet snow and frozen mixed precipitation. The main question about that will be intensity, just light falls with a dusting, or more significant coatings possible? We will be keeping an eye on how this develops (for the 22nd).

    WEDNESDAY colder with passing wintry showers, winds north to northwest 40 to 70 km/hr, lows near 1 C and highs near 5 C.

    THURSDAY (24th) will be a cold, fairly bright day with isolated wintry showers, likely some small accumulations of snow on higher terrain, lows near -1 C and highs 4 to 6 C.

    FRIDAY (Christmas Day) will also be cold and there are hints in some guidance of an interval of sleet or snow developing. One scenario is that a weak front moving in from the Atlantic could run into the embedded colder air and rain might turn to wet snow. Another scenario is that the flow turns more northeast then easterly, with snow possible.

    OUTLOOK is for whatever colder air masses are then available to deepen their grip for a few days, with high pressure likely to prevail, so cold and dry is the likely outcome after Christmas. It looks about five degrees below normal rather than any brutally cold 2010-type scenario but still cold enough for snow in any east wind streamers...."

    A mild Xmas day is, sadly, still possible on some model outputs this morning but a more cold than average Xmas day must be 75% likely at this stage. How bad!


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    #51
    daniel_t1409
    Closed Accounts Posts: 366 ✭✭daniel_t1409


    I will be happy even if we just get a cold frosty Christmas morning, like last year. I just don't want mild, wet weather.

    But it's been 10 years since we last had lying snow on Christmas, so I think we deserve one this year :)


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    #52
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    And behold! the star..."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16IlvOOH4lU

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16IlvOOH4lU

    New Moon



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    #53
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    And behold! the star..."

    [

    Thank you; that is sheerly beautiful and meaningful .

    There is a thread over on the archaeology forum, called " Advent" that ties in with this..

    Thank you.


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    #54
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Will post charts in a while but whilst the hope for extended cold into New Year looks less likely this morning the models have upgraded now on Christmas day itself. Looks like it will be very cold. Snow still not forecast but you'd think any precipitation that falls is likely to fall as snow. I've quoted below MTCs latest take. This is all getting exciting in terms of this thread! If you don't like Bing Crosby songs, the next 8 days mightnt be great for you!

    "....FRIDAY (Christmas Day) at this point looks very cold with some sunny skies but a risk of localized snow flurries or mixed wintry showers coming in from the surrounding seas. There is some uncertainty at this time range on details, winds could be backing around from northerly to northwest and then west, with an Atlantic frontal system trying to push somewhat milder air back in, but that could lead to some late sleet or snow lasting into part of the 26th. Temperatures look like they might be as cold as -4 C in the morning, to highs near 3 C (but it could be closer to 7 C in a few parts of the south and west)....."


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    #55
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    ECM 00z. -9 uppers. Could it... no surely it won't? As Rebel says above, an absence of precipitation for now.

    Snow on Christmas would be a tiny consolation for the shítfest that has been 2020.

    ed0f893cad7079b920951fe93de55938.png


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    #56
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,879 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Found beast from the east file from my phone radar from that particular day for reminiscing.


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    #57
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Just to update this. As you will note from other threads there is still a lot of uncertainty re the Christmas period weather. In terms of the big day, right now it looks one of the milder days over the period, but only after a heavy frost that would give a real seasonal feel to Xmas morning. Will update with afternoon charts later...


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    #58
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,710 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Christmas Day itself is looking rather bland at this stage but not as poor as recent years. A cold start with a frost and a ridge of high pressure moving in as well as in increase in temperatures as the day goes on.

    UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

    temperatures would be close to average on Christmas Day, maybe a degree or two below average early in the day and more average by the end of the day.


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    #59
    Cork2021
    Registered Users Posts: 2,260 ✭✭✭Cork2021


    Well that’s our bubbles burst anyway!!


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    #60
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,710 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    further update on the Christmas Day conditions. Cool at first with some frost. A mostly dry day with sunny spells and temperatures between 4C and 9C, coolest in the east and mildest in the west.

    Could be patchy rain or drizzle at times along western and north-western coasts.

    144-580UK.GIF?19-12

    132-574UK.GIF?19-12


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    #61
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,819 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z has really built the HP over us on Christmas day, very cold air mass with cold day time temperatures. Currently shows a sharp frost in the Southern half of the country that night into Stephens morning.

    UKMO has a monster high of 1046 hPa centered off the SW and GFS has 1042 Further off the SW.

    mmdjaYD.png

    cXaDELi.png

    HK687QW.png

    PRGrhqe.png


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