[PokeHerKing]

Originally Posted by smellyoldboot

I think I speak for all of us when I say: "BUT WILL WE HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS HA?"

Pretty sure Christmas is cancelled this year anyway.

[giveitholly]

Originally Posted by PokeHerKing

Pretty sure Christmas is cancelled this year anyway.

So if it does snow on the 25th and with Christmas cancelled technically it won't be a white christmas!!!!!

[Artane2002]

I can't upload the charts but in deep FI, the GFS 12z is showing sleet and snow in northern, eastern and western areas on the 24th. Just for fun of course, extremely unlikely to happen. I think the GEM was showing either a 1055 or 1060 hPa high over Greenland!

[pauldry]

Anything is possible with 2020 vision

[SleetAndSnow]

Originally Posted by Artane2002

I can't upload the charts but in deep FI, the GFS 12z is showing sleet and snow in northern, eastern and western areas on the 24th. Just for fun of course, extremely unlikely to happen. I think the GEM was showing either a 1055 or 1060 hPa high over Greenland!

Saw my name mentioned this early ;o . Southern areas this year please definitely worth keeping an eye on though saw it yesterday myself

[Hooter23]

Recent charts look strange alright...with very cold air to the north east already...chance of cold coming in from north west or even more of an easterly direction towards end of the month with cold building there already...we might get a taste of winter very early this year...like we did about 10 years ago...we'll see sure

[Gonzo]

getting cold in this early comes with health warnings, it can mislead us into thinking we are lining up a very cold winter. There has been times before where we do get alot of blocking in October and first week of November only for the PV to power up very quickly with a very mild winter. October 1974 was one such year, lots of northern blocking in October and then a very mild winter with very little if any snow.

On the other hand sometimes a cold October can be a sign for what is in store over the winter. From what I can remember 2010 started off very warm on October 1st but within days we had cooled down considerably with northern blocking getting going and we all know what happened during November and December that winter!

[nacho libre]

That's interesting about 2010. I wonder what October 1962 was like. Was there a Canadian warming prior to that winter?

[sryanbruen]

Originally Posted by Gonzo

getting cold in this early comes with health warnings, it can mislead us into thinking we are lining up a very cold winter. There has been times before where we do get alot of blocking in October and first week of November only for the PV to power up very quickly with a very mild winter. October 1974 was one such year, lots of northern blocking in October and then a very mild winter with very little if any snow.

On the other hand sometimes a cold October can be a sign for what is in store over the winter. From what I can remember 2010 started off very warm on October 1st but within days we had cooled down considerably with northern blocking getting going and we all know what happened during November and December that winter!

Not necessarily, the warmest point of October 2010 was the 8th to the 12th when we were in a transitioning period from changeable to settled. The high pressure retrogressed from central Europe, Scandinavia around the 8th to a mid-Atlantic ridge by the 12th but exerting enough influence to keep Ireland dry. It was very sunny at first and warm for October with peach blue skies on the 11th and 12th but these sunny conditions became limited to the west as cloud came in from the east.

All this blocking is nothing unusual to be seeing in October in the context of recent autumns we've had. October 2016 had a notable Scandi High with a lot of easterly winds early on. October 2017 was largely southwesterly but November had fairly regular northerlies. October 2018 ended with a very cold northerly despite the warm start and November 2018 developed a Scandi High which brought easterly winds but due to a relatively mild continent and Irish Sea, precipitation fell as rain. Autumn 2019 was largely blocked in the high latitudes from late September onwards with October a particularly blocked month dominated by a southerly tracking jet, whilst November tended to have blocking over the Urals.

What's more unusual is the extent of it. None of the recent autumns have matched the level of blocking forecast by some models. That anticyclone to the south of Greenland projected by the GEM is record breaking and unprecedented. Such blocking has not been observed during the month of October before so have no precedents to go off of. This blocking will likely result in a good expansion of Siberian snow cover though bad for sea ice. Recent models have started to show a western based -NAO with deep low pressure from the south bringing relatively mild conditions during the third week of October despite the huge blocking over Greenland and the Arctic. Models are notorious for struggling with high latitude blocks so expect these changes.

Originally Posted by nacho libre

That's interesting about 2010. I wonder what October 1962 was like. Was there a Canadian warming prior to that winter?

October 1962 was a settled month with average temperatures for its time, and yes in early November.

[sryanbruen]

Well this would be something

ECM 12z ends on this deep low slap bang over Ireland heading north with gales and storm force wind gusts in the Irish Sea.

[Meteorite58]

ECM and GFS again showing unusual place for LP to deepen South of us and moving in a general S to N direction ( been hinting at this for a few runs now ) . ECM deepens the system more on the latest run as Sryan posted above. Both showing it becoming quite wet from later Sunday into Monday, more so from the ECM which is currently showing flooding type rain for southern counties. All this dependent on lots of wheels rotating together. Meridional Jet of late seems to power up a bit. Direction of LP systems bringing moisture sourced from the tropics so will be watching to see if it will get quite wet. Like the weather event that the UK and France got recently would expect it to take a number of days for any idea of knowing what track and strength will martialize .

[Meteorite58]

Nothing severe showing up for next week on the current runs, could be quite wet at times and blustery but every run is different this far out. Areas of LP will be knocking about so will see if any track will deepen close to us but for now impossible to know. Trending unsettled.

[Meteorite58]

GFS really stepped back from developing LP's next week, ECM showing a wet start to the week but not much after that, UKMO showing a very wet day around next Monday.

So bit of a climbdown at the moment for next week in general but still signs of wet or very wet weather around next Monday.

Some very cold nights showing up next week from both of the main models.

[Meteorite58]

After stepping back from LP development over Ireland the models are well and truly back to showing systems meandering near and over us for much of next week. Not wet all the time but wet spells. After the heavy rain at the start of the week, Weds and the weekend standing out as possibly heavy especially the weekend. To me models look to be suggesting that the Atlantic is getting back into action. Looks blustery and windy on the coasts at times but nothing too severe showing up as yet anyway. The weekend of the 24th will be watching to see if the weather gets lively and tropical remnants possibly getting into the mix the week following.. GFS out into FI is all from the Atlantic.

Both models showing a Meridional Jet stream pattern I reckon, slower moving systems with possibly high rainfall accumulations.

Looking like being not overly cold or mild.

My tuppence worth anyway

[Gonzo]

yep big changes are on the way to something much more unsettled. It does appear the Atlantic is about to be unleashed with low pressure after low pressure heading for us and zonality coming back big time for final 10 days of October and into the first half of November.



We turn very unsettled from October 20th with lots of rainfall spikes and temperatures becoming more normal with less in the way of colder than average temperatures, however it may still be slightly cooler than normal at times with low pressures moving north-west to south-east over us. The northern blocking which has influenced our weather for much of the past month is easing allowing the Atlantic to dominate our weather for the forseeable future.





By the end of the GFS run we see the purple colours coming back over Greenland and the pole indicating the Polar Vortex is going to intensity properly over the next few weeks.



Nothing very mild or cold on the horizon, looks like a repeat of last years November is on the table with plenty of rain and often windy conditions.

GEM is similar with deep areas of low pressure lining up one after another with Ireland directly in the path of the Atlantic systems from the north Atlantic.



I will probably give the garden a final cut during the weekend before the rains come back next week.